MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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9PM EDT 20 August 2007 Update
Dean has become this season's first category 5 hurricane within the last 12 hours before projected landfall on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. If Dean maintains this intensity until landfall, it will become the first category 5 landfall in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Andrew in 1992.
1PM EDT 20 August 2007 Update
Hurricane Dean may become a category 5 hurricane today as it is in optimal conditions for it to occur, and it's back to a single eyewall structure now.
It should make Landfall in the Yucatan in Mexico just north of Belize, and then reenter the Gulf in the Bay of Campeche before entering Central Mexico, it has time to restrengthen in the Bay of Campeche, potentially back to a major hurricane again before the final landfall, past that it may even enter the Eastern Pacific.
Also, Tropical Cyclone Formation alert issued for 92L which means it may form into a depression within 48 hours or so
Chances for Tropical Development of Wave Northeast of the Caribbean (92L) within the next 48 hours
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------*-------------]
9AM EDT 20 August 2007 Update
Beyond Dean, a new system is showing signs of formation northeast of the Caribbean. Being officially referred to as "Invest 92L". This system appears headed toward tropical development.
Initial model runs are usually sketchy, but they currently suggest that Florida and the southeastern US may need to pay attention to it.
This system is roughly 1585 miles east southeast of Central Florida, and the center is near 22.5N, 56.0W. Movement is west northwest at 17MPH, and should continue that and potentially trend more westward (based on the sketchy initial model runs), forward speed may increase up to 21-23MPH.
If it were to affect the US, the current thinking is that it would be approaching around Friday or Saturday.
More specifically, Cape Hatteras to Miami should pay attention to the system, at least until we get a better handle on it. Assuming the high weakens it may mean more on the north side of that, if it doesn't then Florida needs to watch more (the latter is the marginally more likely scenario at the moment). All that is speculation at this point, so first off, watch if this system persists and develops, and if it does watch the future track of it.
This location historically is known for storms this time of year, some very infamous storms have started in this general area.
Want to take a guess what this system will do? Go here in the Forecast lounge to speculate and suggest.
More on this later.
Original Update
Hurricane Dean has recently cleared the island of Jamaica, from which disaster reports should begin to trickle in during the overnight hours and into the day on Monday. Next up is the Yucatan Peninsula, as it appears that Dean will pass south of the Cayman Islands.
The eyewall replacement cycles that fortunately held Dean's intensity in check over the past day or two appeared to end earlier this evening according to aircraft reconnaissance, setting the stage for intensification over the energy-rich waters of the northwest Caribbean Sea. More recent reports suggest another eyewall cycle may be imminent, however. Despite that, even tonight as Dean moves away from Jamaica, the central pressure is slowly beginning to fall. The current forecast calls for intensification to a powerful category 5 hurricane within the next 24-36 hours before landfall on the Yucatan peninsula early on Tuesday:
Model guidance is currently tightly clustered on impacts to the central Yucatan and central mainland Mexican coastlines from Dean:
The upper level low currently slowing down in the Gulf of Mexico is not expected to significantly impact the track forecast for Dean. This slowing had been anticipated by the models, which also suggest it to start to move out again during the day on Monday. Unless something drastic changes to alter that, it looks like the United States will stay mostly in the clear from Dean, unfortunately for Mexico.
Stay tuned through the day on Monday and through the week ahead for more on ean.
Event Related Links:
Jamaican Media
Jamaican Radio (106 Power)
Go Jamaica Hurricane Dean Watch
Jamaica Gleaner (Jamaican Newspaper)
Jamaica Observer (Newspaper)
Nationwide Radio (Hurricane coverage and live reports
starting evening 8/18.)
Jamaican News/Talk 93
Love 101 Radio
Kool 97 Radio
Irie FM Radio
Other
Jamaican Webcam recording... Treasure Beach
Jim Williams will be doing a live show on Dean tonight at hurricane city (8PM EDT)
Jamaican StormCarib Reports
Jamaican Meteorological Service
San Juan, Puerto Rico Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar
Southern Cuba Radar (Has Jamaica partially in range
Cuban Radar Mosaic (flhurricane long term recording of this radar)
Hurricane Watch.net
Microwave imagery of Dean
Martinique Radar Animation Recording
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Barbados Brohav Weather Fax
Full Caribbean Radar Composite
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
San Juan, PR NWS Page
Various Caribbean Radio Stations
DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Hurricane Dean (Far Eastern Atlantic) Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2007&storm=4 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Dean
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of Dean
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Dean
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Dean (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Dean
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Dean
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Dean -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
92L (Northeast of Caribbean)) Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2007&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 92L
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of 92L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Edited by Clark (Mon Aug 20 2007 09:20 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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We have a new recon.
Looks like another to start fairly soon.
Flight level winds support 125kt / 145mph surface winds. Eyewall is 15NM circular, but we have a double eyewall on the north.
In Microwave, I notice there was some disruption of the convective feeder bands, but the core of the storm is intact. Dean is now entering very warm Caribbean waters with high heat potential, so we can expect recovery from the passage by Jamaica fairly quickly and continued intensification.
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991
URNT12 KNHC 200408
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/03:42:50Z
B. 17 deg 30 min N
079 deg 00 min W
C. 700 mb 2467 m
D. 105 kt
E. 226 deg 8 nm
F. 342 deg 104 kt
G. 226 deg 016 nm
H. 927 mb
I. 7 C/ 3069 m
J. 15 C/ 3044 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C15
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1104A DEAN OB 16
MAX FL WIND 142 KT NW QUAD 02:25:20 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 145 KT N QUAD 03:48:30 Z
MAX SWS 125 KT N QUAD 03:47:00 Z
DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE OUTBOUND N QUAD
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A few great image links for Dean:
http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/gallery/images/shuttle/sts-118/html/s118e07920.html
http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/gallery/images/shuttle/sts-118/html/s118e07919.html
http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/gallery/images/shuttle/sts-118/html/s118e07937.html
[post moved from end of old, broken thread]
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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I fear that Hurricane Dean is gonna turn me into a Devils Advocate here...Those who know me, that is definately not my MO...but I still don't feel 100% on Dean and I have to let my conscience be my guide tonight.
As a man of my own convictions I never waffle…After saying that, I’m sorry to say I’m going to waffle. If I am wrong in the end, I eat my crow medium rare (Trying to lighten the mood here) and I owe apologies to all for being wrong and going against the grain.
The ULL has been a player in my discussion for days now. After many days, I gave up the grey ghost to the models this morning…They all seemed to be getting along very well, but through the day and tonight…The Bam split, the and HWRF differed, and the and ensemble have done their thing here or there. The gap has widened and I must balk. Tonight, I must digress, but my ULL discussion is still definitely different that it was on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Best to just bullet point this stuff.
-This morning, the ridge was better defined in the Atlantic, with and axis spreading roughly off the South Carolina Coast on Vapor.
-Also this morning, the ULL in the Gulf was around 88W moving west, but it had intensified during the night and also gained better representation.
-In addition, the flow over the Bahamas and Florida between the ULL and the High could be defined as out of the ESE or the SE this morning...since that time, it has veered into a flow from the SE to a hard SSE wind on Water Vapor.
-Initially, my primary basis for Gulf ULL low concerns stemmed from a stall of that ULL. It did not happen. The low moved from88W this morning and reached 92-93W as a better defended system today. Since then, it has not done something not as bad as stalling out, but it has done something else that I see as not good as moving on…It has turned north. All the models…even the latest runs, were based on this ULL moving into southern-middle TX, then getting snagged north into the jet stream. At this time I’ve only got one thing to say…Not gonna happen that way…And that may impart on the mid level ridge the discussed at 11PM…Considering the ULL is also a Mid-level low now
-Mean time, prior to the northern shift of the ULL, Dean moved 3 degrees west in tandem with the ULL that moved 3 degrees west. The storm did not catch up to the ULL as some have speculated.
-Dean is now as close as it ever was to the ULL, maybe and probably closer than it ever was to the SE flow. And more so, the high off the Carolinas did not take full advantage of spreading west in place of the ULL. If it did, the ESE to SE flow over Florida would have shifted west. Instead, the wind flow sharpened, and veered to out of the SE or SSE. This tells me the ULL-Mid level Low over the Gulf expanded and the ridge did not take full advantage of opportunities to fill the gap. The 399mb (HDW-High) and 699mb (HDW-mid) show wind barbs heading from the southeast and SSE on the latest imagery once again tonight over Florida.
-Finally, here in SW Florida, my porch faces east, I actually watched the clouds move NW by NNW tonight as they grew from cloud base…I figured I would be seeing them move a bit more westerly based on the forecast of increasing mid to upper level ridging,
-There are other factors I see tonight, but I can’t bullet forever. Please review the WV links, formulate your own educated opinions…And don’t be amazed if there is at least alight course change by morning. In particular, ALL models had the Gulf ULL moving into Texas and Mexico…All models built more ridging on the east side of the ULL by now too. We are not seeing that now, and this is the first bugaboo hint that there may be a surprise course correction on the horizon. Even if the change is only subtle.
From this mornings post and in the end, the 1% for eastern Gulf is still there (almost feels like 10% now, but I won’t go there.). The 5% for the central Gulf is still there (Similarly, I feel it’s more like 15% now, but it’s just not a good to go there either), and I’d keep the western gulf at 25%.
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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 75
Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
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I have a question that I hope doesn't seem either ignorant or unconcerned for the damage this storm is doing. I have a home in the Tucson area which at this time of year gets most of its annual rainfall from a "monsoon" flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The southwest has been experiencing severe drought for several years now. The predicted tracks for Dean shown above seem to show the storm ultimately making it into Sonora near Arizona. Does that actually mean we could hope to get significant rainfall from this storm and that it will traverse essentially the entire country of Mexico including some mountainous areas to reach us? Thanks for any views on this.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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If Dean does follow the model consensus it will likely spin itself down over old Mexico (mountains can be quite brutal on tropical cyclones there). Leftover moisture and vorticity in the mid-levels would possibly enhance the monsoon. It is almost unheard of to get a truly intact tropical depression in Arizona from -this- direction. Much better odds for that from the east pac (riding up the Gulf of California, or cutting across Baja, and then into the state, etc.)
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oil tracker
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
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Quote:
From this mornings post and in the end, the 1% for eastern Gulf is still there (almost feels like 10% now, but I won’t go there.). The 5% for the central Gulf is still there (Similarly, I feel it’s more like 15% now, but it’s just not a good to go there either), and I’d keep the western gulf at 25%.
After or before Yucatan do you see the turn?
NHC´s just said "MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH". No north component.
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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Dem, I just looked at the latest WV and I could swear I see the ULL now moving to the west. I know you said it was going to the north but I just didn't see it. I could be wrong on this but it looks as though the models were right and the ULL is now starting to make its move west toward Texas and the ridge is building in.
Shawn
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Well, it is basically moving due north (Talking about the Gulf ULL)...There is a slight hint of it possibly moving a snudge west of direct north. I am/have been watching of the Gulf Water Vapor...Here is the Link:
Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
Upper Level Lows work a little different than tropical cyclones...Lots of optical illusions...It is very understandable tofind a center hard to locate, so I see whay you may see it as heading west. However, the Northern most center point was roughly at 26N, 92W at 4:15 UTC (Z). Earlier, the center was farther south at about 25N, 92W at 22:45 utc (Z)...A difference of a about 5 hoursand 30minutes of almost due northward motion...Hope this helps.
Edited by dem05 (Mon Aug 20 2007 02:32 AM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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It appears that Dean will probably follow in the historic footsteps as such memorable hurricanes as Gilbert & , and bomb out a bit in the northwestern Caribbean, while traversing extremely high oceanic heat content. Internal structural changes may limit this, both in terms of duration and intensity, but a Category Five Dean on approach to the Yucatan would seem to be just about baked in the cake, now.
At this hour the eye has started clearing out again, while cloud tops have grown ever colder.
In regards to the ULL's heading, I really still see the movement as due west, but with perhaps a teeny-tiny bit of north-south stretching. The most recent TWD tells that does not discern any shift to the north at this time, either. As tricky as ULLs are to read, it's possible that it is preparing to begin shifting north, but a more likely scenario might be that this is nothing more than some early indications of a future shearing out... perhaps.
Ironically, it is this perception of a little bit of digging and stretching that I perceive could potentially impact Dean, as maybe the ULL's reach digs a tiny bit further south than models anticipate at this time. Hopefully sooner than later all will have a better grasp on exactly what that mid/upper low is really doing.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Looking at IR, the system sure looks to be trying to clear out the old eyewall. Recon is in the air but not to the storm yet, so it will be a little while before we have some good recon data still. 5am said it was undergoing an , so everything is consistent.
Looking at track, the models are becoming more divergent once the system pases over the Yucatan, and I think part of this is that crossing the Yucatan further south will result in more disruption to the system, and that disruption isn't being modeled the same from model to model.
--RC
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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Well, the ULL is certainly moving west and Dean is as well. The ridge is really building in and this is as straight forward of a path as you will find with a hurricane. As I had mentioned yesterday morning, there is a chance that Dean never sees the water of the BOC...especially if he keeps on a straight west path as he is now.
Shawn
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flanewscameraman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 33
Loc: Palm Beach County, FLA
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Not to digress from Dean, but what do those with a weather mind think about the possible system forming east of the bahamas. I live in S. Fla, and am curious on your thoughts
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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appears to now curl SW, or at most to only have N/S elongation.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Not to digress from Dean, but what do those with a weather mind think about the possible system forming east of the bahamas. I live in S. Fla, and am curious on your thoughts
NRL has posted invest 92L located at about 24N 55W.
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flanewscameraman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 33
Loc: Palm Beach County, FLA
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It appears to my untrained eye, that this looks like s somewhat healthy system that wants to form..I am wondering if there is a page that may have any models showing the future of this system, if any future exists. The system I am speaking about is 92L
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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See the main page of this site.
But to the mets, what's up with the 92L model for ? Is that a leftover model run from an older storm or something? It's totally in the wrong place (west and south of FL). The SWFMD models are incomplete but at least in the right place.
--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The model links are under each storm on the front page, 92L is what the system northeast of the Caribbean is being called now.
I put an image of some of the models up on the front page for it, in short Florida needs to be looking at it, not sure what will happen yet, still analyzing the system.
is showing the first 92L of the year so far, it should update fairly soon to the new graphic, the link and animation is already working.
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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The next recon should show us a good indication on if Dean is going to make cat5. Eye does look to be elongating a little n/s so not sure if its just a bit of a wobble or if there's a in the works.
I estimate CAT3 back over water, unsure if there will be much more strengthening than that before he makes landfall again.
I'm sure mexico isn't too happy but lets be happy he's not going to turn the corner into the GOM. A deep n-n/e run up the GOM this time of year would be NASTY.
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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The August 20 00Z run of the has a tight but intensifying circulation hitting SE Fla. in about four days. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation
Seems like most of the other models don't even pick up on a system at all, at least not yet. Still, 92L bears watching for the East Coast.
Edited by lawgator (Mon Aug 20 2007 10:06 AM)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I updated the main article, but I'm reposting it here too. With more analysis and some input from Ed, here's what looks good so far.
The system (92L) is roughly 1585 miles east southeast of Central Florida, and the center is near 22.5N, 56.0W. Movement is west northwest at 17MPH, and should continue that and potentially trend more westward (based on the sketchy initial model runs), forward speed may increase up to 21-23MPH.
If it were to affect the US, the current thinking is that it would be approaching around Friday or Saturday.
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