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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Hurricane Felix forms in Southeastern Caribbean
      #77666 - Sat Sep 01 2007 07:49 AM

7:45 PM EDT Update 1 Sep 2007
Hurricane Felix has formed in the southeastern Caribbean. Recon found the storm's center slightly south of the 5PM position, so the further west track continues. Those in Aruba should take note of that. Beyond that, Honduras.



7:40 PM EDT Update 1 Sep 2007
Aircraft recon just reported a 993mb pressure in Felix, it's extremely likely it will be a hurricane at the 8PM advisory.

7PM EDT Update 1 Sep 2007
Felix is now just shy of hurricane strength right now, and may become a hurricane later tonight as it moves westward. In fact Recon just found 66knot surface winds, which puts it over hurricane threshold, so Hurricane Felix may be recognized as early as 8PM.

Model initializations have been a bit off, but it still looks like the National Hurricane Center's forecast track will hold. The thinking here still takes it south, with Honduras coming precariously close.



We'll be watching.

1PM EDT Update 1 Sep 2007



Despite proximity to South America, Felix has strengthening during the day and could become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow.



Once it clears the tip of South America, conditions are favorable for Felix to become a major hurricane. Which, the National Hurricane Center forecasts it to do. It will pass close enough to the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba to potentially bring tropical Storm Force winds to those islands.

Beyond that depending on trends, those in Northern coastal Nicaragua and Honduras need to watch it around Tuesday, as the forecast track takes it very close offshore north to there, and beyond that Belize and the Yucatan of Mexico around Wednesday or Thursday.

98L, in the Central Atlantic, slightly north of and mostly east of Felix, is persisting quite well and is on track to become a depression within the next few days. Those in the Lesser Antilles of the Caribbean, on the north side, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will want to keep an eye out on 98L. This one is a bit further north, long range, it has more potential to affect the US than the other systems, but still plenty of time to watch trends on that one.

Chances for Tropical Development of Central Atlantic Wave off Africa (98L) In Next 3 days
Code:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------------*-------]



It has the potential, if it persists, to become the season's 7th classified tropical system sometime over the holiday weekend.


Original Update
Tropical Storm Felix has formed from Tropical Depression Six in the southeastern Caribbean, it's moving generally west, and is looking a little ragged, perhaps due to the proximity to South America. It will move westward and pass just north of the Netherlands Antilles including Aruba as it moves to the west.

Close enough for Tropical Storm Warnings to be issued for those islands and parts of the Northern Venezuelan coastline.

It's not expected to strengthen all that much today, but may later on as it moves further away from South America.

The hurricane center's track is again, pretty straightforward, at least for the next 3 or four days. Mostly west, or slightly north of due west, making it possible to clip Nicaragua and Honduras--but staying just north---and eventually head more west into Belize. There are no signs of a potential north turn, in fact if anything it may stay further south. This is due to a high in the Gulf of Mexico that will strengthen the ridging in the area driving the storm even further west. The hurricane center's forecast track is to the south of some models however. The hurricane center's forecast track looks pretty good.

We'll be watching, though, some models have trended more north, but these models are already too far north for the current position of the system.



Beyond Felix a wave further east in the Atlantic, being referred to as 98L will have to be watched over the coming days.

Netherland Antilles/Aruba Radar 1
Netherland Antilles/Aruba Radar 2
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Tropical Storm Felix Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Felix - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Felix


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float6latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Felix (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Felix (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Felix

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Felix
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Felix -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


98L (East Atlantic Wave) Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 98L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float7latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Enter Felix, Stage Right [Re: MikeC]
      #77667 - Sat Sep 01 2007 07:55 AM

Good Morning All. TD-6 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Felix at the 5am advisory.

From NHC's 5am discussion #3:

"THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW FOCUSED ON A CLUSTER VERY NEAR THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION ... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 35 KT ... SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FELIX."

Felix is still very much in the formative stages and is still in the process of consolidating, but the deep convection continues to expand with continuing organization of the feeder bands, several of which are now in evidence in the western semi-circle, with more beginning to take shape in the SE quad and the northern periphery.

Also, the deep convection has maintained very cold cloud top temps of -70 to -80, all the while continuing to organize better, implying that gradual intensification is underway. And upper level outflow is quite good and only improving.

First visible satellite images suggest, from a steadily improving satellite signature, that Felix is beginning to strengthen in earnest, as it traverses the ever-warmer waters of the Caribbean ahead of it. Although not an especially large system, I surmise that Felix will continue to steadily expand its' wind field, and could easily become much larger before making landfall.

University of Hawaii Weather Server version of Tropical Satellite Imagery:

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off

(I like to click the 'Rock' button for a back-and-forth effect and slow it down just a tad.)

Moving a little faster now, it seems that Felix is destined to be, like Dean, a 'Straight Shooter' type system, with high confidence in taking it directly towards Central America, with a possible landfall in Belize nearing Cat 3 strength.

Shear is expected to remain low to non-existent, so an even stronger hurricane wouldn't be out of the question by the end of the forecast period. Remember that mid and long range *intensity forecasts* have a much greater degree of error than do those regarding location, and all environmental factors appear to be favorable, certainly not inhibitive, once Felix pulls away from Venezuela and is able to more easily expand its' wind field and overall circulation envelope.

All in all, it would appear that Felix could become a quite 'respectable' Caribbean Hurricane, which fortunately, should not effect US interests.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Enter Felix, Stage Right [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #77668 - Sat Sep 01 2007 08:37 AM

NRL has just put up a new invest, 98L. Not much info on it now, but the satellite visible is at about 38W 14N.

Edit:

Checking the models, only the MM5 (mm5fsu45a and MM5fsu45b) are picking up on 98L at all, and very weakly.

These same MM5 models are showing Felix taking a track into the Gulf - definitely can't write Felix off as a Central American storm yet.

Also, looking through the models shows something fairly big developing out of HENRIETTE in the pacific just off Baja California in the next couple days. It's not Atlantic, but the track takes it up toward Arizona and California, and all the major models are showing it (MM5, GFS, NOGAPS, and CMC). Edit: Looking through more models, most are taking it into Baja California as a weak hurricane with precip overspeading the southwestern US, but a couple, including the GFDI and SHIPS bring the system up to major hurricane status. Arizona, California, and New Mexico need to watch this one. See http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Sep 01 2007 09:06 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Recon [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77669 - Sat Sep 01 2007 09:05 AM

Apparent problems with one of the Recon flights this morning. Departed for Felix and were airborne about 60 minutes.
Highest measured wind speed at flight level was 38 knots. First aircraft has since turned back north bound and I didn't see any lat/ longs near the storm center per the NHC/ TPC coordinates.

Second aircraft was still on the ground at last check, but appeared to be ready for takeoff.

I may have missed some of the data, but I checked it 2 or 3 times.

Meanwhile. The buoy reports from the Eastern Cribbean aren't indicating any real changes. With an exception to the wind gusts at the far Eastern Caribbean buoy. Pressure was just above sea level pressure or around 29.95 in Hg.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 318
Re: Enter Felix, Stage Right [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77672 - Sat Sep 01 2007 10:30 AM

Is this the one that NHC mentioned in the tropical weather outlook, the one that looks like it is following Felix but further north?
Looks like it has some increased shower activity (can see this on the satellite picture). Any chance of development in the future on this one?


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Beaumont, TX
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Re: Recon [Re: danielw]
      #77673 - Sat Sep 01 2007 10:38 AM

Just looked at the model plots of 98L. It is the one where showers are noticeable on satellite this morning.
Wonder if it will hang on like Felix did and slowly develop.


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nicaragua
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Re: Tropical Storm Felix forms in Southeastern Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #77674 - Sat Sep 01 2007 10:54 AM

IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS MOVING WITH FELIX AND ALSO BUILDING AHEAD OF FELIX.
UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES, THE TRACK WILL BE MORE SOUTH. IN NICARAGUA WE GET VERY LITTLE INFORMATION. ANY INFORMATION FROM ANY OF YOU WILL HELP US A LOT.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 1024
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Re: Recon [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #77675 - Sat Sep 01 2007 11:32 AM

11AM NHC said that Felix had a tightly wound core. You can make that out very well on Microwave from NRL:

Microwave Link


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Recon [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77682 - Sat Sep 01 2007 01:32 PM

thought this was interesting, the UCF damage impact model plot (Experimental) made a jump to the north some... Recon just went through a bit ago.. and winds were stronger on outbound it looks like....Flt. Level winds From 115° at 64 knots (From the ESE at ~ 73.6 mph) at 17:15:00Z at 12.73N 64.27W....at an alt. of 345 meters (~ 1,132 feet).... think i saw a pressure of 998mb....

**Vortex has pressure of 999mb... MAX FL WND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 70KTS @ 17:14:00Z***

Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Sep 01 2007 01:41 PM)


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punkyg
Weather Watcher


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Re: Recon [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #77684 - Sat Sep 01 2007 01:42 PM

Is Felix nearing hurricane strength right now or has he made achieved hurricane status.

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Recon [Re: punkyg]
      #77685 - Sat Sep 01 2007 01:52 PM

Quote:

Is Felix nearing hurricane strength right now or has he made achieved hurricane status.




the 2pm just came out... winds up to 70mph and 999mb

"200 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2007
...FELIX NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH..."

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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BillD
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Loc: Miami
Re: Recon [Re: punkyg]
      #77686 - Sat Sep 01 2007 01:52 PM

From the 2:00 PM intermediate advisory:

DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON BOARD THE
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

Not a hurricane, yet.

Bill


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dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Recon [Re: punkyg]
      #77687 - Sat Sep 01 2007 01:56 PM

Well, I wonder if there may be one other fly in the ointment. The models have had a fair amount of difficulty in identifying areas of cyclogenesis here. Before yesterday afternoon, none of the major models showed the development of Felix...If 98L ends up becoming TD7, then the models will be building a bit of a recent track record here for not calling systems pre-development...As I really do not see any of the major models making much of 98L right now.

Only being that it is September, it is worth mention that there is another tropical wave gaining thunderstorm activity. That is the wave south of Jamaica. The organization/structure of the system is nothing to write home about. However, it will be curious to see if the thunderstorm activity that has been building in that area continues with some persistance over time. At this time, there seems to be little/no representation of this wave in the models...yet then again, this wave is in the very same favorable waters of the Carribean...and is far enough from Felix to be of note. Don't get me wrong, I'm not calling for any development here, but it would be curious to see if a well defined wave may imply some additional steering effects on Felix from upstream. Time will only tell...

Carribean visible loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html


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stevie
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Re: Recon [Re: dem05]
      #77688 - Sat Sep 01 2007 02:09 PM

None of the models were picking up on Felix or 98-L yesterday and I don't see anything picking up on the area near Freeport Texas either. Local Mets are talking about it as a broad Low and Dr. Lyons mentioned it this Saturday morning. These things generally take time to develop but pressures had been lowering during the morning hours. It will be interesting to see if the thunderstorms continue to persist here as well.

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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


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Re: Recon [Re: stevie]
      #77689 - Sat Sep 01 2007 02:22 PM

You know, the models are good. They certainly help with track and intensity. But there is something to be said for experts who have watched
these storms for years and know the trends. A "person" who knows the tropics might pick up on and recognize things before the models pick
up on it. Take for instance, Felix. The NHC kept mentioning him in its tropical update even though the models gave him no support.
That's one you could just look at on the satellite view and say "hey, there is a chance there". Models just aren't good enough yet, and people
have brains that actually "think". So, while the models are an excellent tool it takes the people who know these storms,
like those at the NHC, to bring all the information together to come up with a reliable forecast.


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hurricaneguy
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Re: Recon [Re: Unregistered User]
      #77691 - Sat Sep 01 2007 02:42 PM

Wow lets not jump the guns just yet. True models have been shifting lately but most of the more reliable ones have stayed consistent with a Belize/Yucatan landfall. Like with Dean, the models will continue to jump around a lot but most agree that the high will hold and keep Felix heading were big brother Dean did. As for 98l I expect it to struggle for a while but I think it has a chance to get going in a few days once it passes the dry air and 20kt wind shear.

--------------------


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Recon [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #77694 - Sat Sep 01 2007 03:34 PM

I usually leave comments for the pro's here on the forum. I think the mod's like it that way.
This forum used to be a place to banter about ideas and thoughts but now it's not that.

SO, I don't comment as much. I wanted to say that it looks as if Felix will indeed take a Southerly path
and affect the Southern Carribean and not turn too far North.
I trust the models. Realizing that they can and do change somewhat. What I do notice is that for every storm,
there are those that wishcast a storm to enter the gulf and threaten the U.S. coast.
Make no mistake, the U.S and the Gulf coast states get their share of storms but be careful about
comments that turn a storm Northward when the weather data does not back that up.

2004 and 2005 were historicly busy seasons. We are now back into a more normal pattern of storms.

I am thankful for that. We all should be.


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craigm
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Re: Recon [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #77695 - Sat Sep 01 2007 03:56 PM

Couldn't agree more. I would rather talk, or more correctly, read about the synoptics that could influence the steering mechanisms on a storm rather than conjecture about what the models will or won,t do. We all know beyond 3-5 days the margin of error becomes huge. Models are predicting what a fluid inside a fluid will do and there are just too many variables. I only look at 3 days out with great confidence.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


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dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Recon [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #77696 - Sat Sep 01 2007 04:04 PM

I'd also like to pitch in here. The models do generally favor a path toward Belize or the Yucatan portion Mexico. Toward the end of the guidance package, there is a sizable split between a storm approaching the Yucatan on a westward course, or a NW ward course. Only time will trimline the day 4and 5 in the models into some better agreement.

As forthe NAM Model. It does insist on pulling Felix north. With that said, the NAM is not considered one of the reliable hurricane forecast models...

...With that said, the NWS Tallahassee office has included the reasoning for why the NAM wants to pull Felix north...I don't feel the NAM has pulled it down correctly, but model was worthy of mention in Tallahassee Area Forecast Discussion, so it can't be totally discounted either.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2007

Exerpt from Short term forecast:

ON MONDAY...THE NAM DEEPENS THE TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
SLIGHTLY...WHICH IN TURN AFFECTS THE PATH OF FELIX. THE NAM
SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE IN OUR AREA WITH SLIGHTLY DRYER AIR EXTENDING DOWN
INTO NE GEORGIA. THE GFS SOLUTION IS DIFFERENT. LOW OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST. STRONGER RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MUCH DRYER AIR IN
OUR AREA. THERE IS LESS OF A CONNECTION BETWEEN TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS SHOWS NO
CONNECTION BETWEEN FELIX AND TROUGH OFF THE EASTCOAST OF US. EAST-
WEST RIDGE AXIS BLOCKS ANY CONNECTION.

TUESDAY...THE NAM DEPICTS THE TROUGH OFF THE EASTCOAST AND THE
ASSOCIATED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS REALLY AFFECTS THE PATH OF
FELIX DRAWING IT FARTHER NORTHWARD. WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES ELONGATED
EXTENDING MORE EASTWARD AND MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE TROUGH IN TEXAS
BRINGING ADDITIONAL DRY AIR INTO THE SOUTHEAST. TIMING IS THE
QUESTION...THE GFS SHOWS THE TROUGH OFF THE EASTCOAST
FINALLY BEGINNING TO DEEPEN...WITH NO CONNECTION TO FELIX. UPPER HIGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD NOW CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

THE GFS DROPS THE POPS ON MONDAY TO 10 PERCENT WEST TO 36 PERCENT
SOUTHEAST. HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH CLIMO ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT IN
BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS SUGGESTED BY GFS AND MAV.

.LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A VERY SLOW PROCESS...EXPECT POPS TO
GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD...AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVER SO SLOWLY RELINQUISHES
ITS HOLD OVER THE SE U.S. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY
WEAK AND COMPLEX THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ANY SLIGHT CHANGES TO IT
COULD HAVE DRAMATIC RESULTS ACROSS OUR REGION OVER THE MID-WEEK TIME
FRAME...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE PUSH TO REMOVE THE TRAPPED TROPICAL
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SLOW AND WEAK AT BEST.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Recon [Re: dem05]
      #77700 - Sat Sep 01 2007 04:53 PM

well, 5pm leaves a few questions... seems a few models like HWRF, etc. leave NHC wondering... but the track was slightly shifted to the north... looks like its going to come down, what will happen with the high in the GOM... will it stayed centered in GOM, or move to the east some? Sounds like to me, that NOAA9 might be schedule to fly in GOM/Western Carb in a few days?

THE FORECAST HINGES ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDL/HWRF ALLOWS
A HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD NEAR FLORIDA
AND CAUSES A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF FELIX IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAINTAIN FELIX
ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Sep 01 2007 04:55 PM)


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