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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Recon [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #77701 - Sat Sep 01 2007 05:01 PM

Well, I know that the NHC has been using the HWRF all year, but I have to say that with every storm this year the HWRF has been consistently underdeveloping them. Dean it kept as a TS or a Cat 1 for ever, and then after Dean reached Category 2 and 3 it kept calling for Dean to weaken. I'm not sure if this is an issue with initiation conditions with HWRF, or if it simply isn't that good with hurricanes. As it is a new model, I'm sure we will hear something about its poor track record in post season analysis.

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Tropical Storm Felix forms in Southeastern Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #77702 - Sat Sep 01 2007 05:26 PM

Felix is getting its act together today; as it nears that warm oceanic eddy south of Haiti, I expect we'll see more significant strengthening (assuming it doesn't occur sooner). NHC intensity forecast is conservative if anything at this point. Track forecast looks good as of now; remember, the models are prone to shifts back and forth at 4-5 days. We saw this with Dean and we're seeing it with Felix now. There may be a bit more significant signs of a weaker ridge across the southeast/Gulf of Mexico this time around, but the southerly route is still the most likely one.

Having said that and before moving on to 98L, just a brief reminder about the rules: discussion back and forth about the storms is fine; wishcasting or unsupported hyperbole is not. 99% of the time there's not a problem, just trying to nip things in the nub before they (might) become a concern.

98L is one of those that will likely be near the cusp of depression status sometime this weekend, likely as it nears 50W. There's more concrete discussion on this one in the Storm Forum, so I'm going to be brief here. It's starting further north than other recent features, making its potential track more uncertain. Right now, it's still being sheared somewhat from the east, and coupled with some dry air and marginal SSTs, expect slow organization for now.

Frontal low near Bermuda looks as good right now as Chantal and Barry did, but it's headed out to sea and is likely non-tropical thermally-speaking at this time. It might get a passing look in post-season analysis, given the mentions of the storm in the Tropical Weather Outlooks, but that's probably it for that one.

After Felix and 98L, the next one in line is about to come off of the African coast...and on and on from there. It's Cape Verde season, and it's here for September.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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weather999
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 25
Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
Re: Tropical Storm Felix forms in Southeastern Caribbean [Re: Clark]
      #77704 - Sat Sep 01 2007 06:05 PM

000
URNT12 KWBC 012139
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 1/2125Z
B. 12 DEG 28 MIN N
65 DEG 23 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 043 DEG 57 KT
G. 300 DEG 18 NM
H. 996 MB
I. 13 C/2456 M
J. 14 C/2420 M
K. 14 C/NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/NA
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 0506A FELIX OB 05
MAX FL WIND 57 KT NW QUAD 2119Z
EYE WALL APPEARS TO BE FORMING SW - SE SIDE


I believe this is new recon, if it's not, ill delete post.

Looks like a hurricane to me just looking at satellite images-looking at vis/ir4, the "eyewall" forming seems to be occuring.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Felix forms in Southeastern Caribbean [Re: weather999]
      #77705 - Sat Sep 01 2007 06:50 PM

i think you are correct... the old kermit the frog (N42RF) is out there... Miss Piggy will be out later tonight. These P-3's are getting good research data for HRD. at last check, At 22:44:30Z (last observation), the observation was 146 miles (235 km) to the NNE (28°) from Caracas, Venezuela... for N42RF or NOAA2... there flying to the SW at about 8,000ft

Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Sep 01 2007 06:52 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
HRD Recon [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #77706 - Sat Sep 01 2007 07:06 PM

HRD just made a pass through the center and it looks like they may upgrade Felix to a Hurricane at the next advisory.

(124deg at 064kts-flt level 065kts average 063kts SFMR-surface wind speed estimate~danielw)
124064 065 063
127071 075 064
127064 075 066

Central pressure on the EYE/ Center dropsonde was 993mb.

Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 01 2007 07:14 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: HRD Recon [Re: danielw]
      #77708 - Sat Sep 01 2007 07:36 PM

URNT12 KNHC 012335
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 01/2241Z
B. 12 DEG 29 MIN N
65 DEG 43 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 129 DEG 77 KTS
G. 050 DEG 14 NM
H. 993 MB
I. 16 C/ 2423 M
J. 17 C/ 2450 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE
M. C30
N. 12345/7NA
O. 1/2 NM
P. N0AA2 0506A FELIX OB 09
MAX FL WIND 77 KT NE QUAD 2238Z


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punkyg
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: sanford, florida
Re: HRD Recon [Re: danielw]
      #77710 - Sat Sep 01 2007 08:30 PM

Will the wave in front of Felix effect him an any way?

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: HRD Recon [Re: punkyg]
      #77712 - Sat Sep 01 2007 08:43 PM

Quote:

Will the wave in front of Felix effect him an any way?




No, it is not likely to do so. Generally mid- and upper-level features are the ones that steer significant tropical systems, not low-level features such as tropical waves. It appears as though Felix will remain south a ridge of high pressure and steered to the west or west-northwest over the next few days.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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CoconutCandy
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Felix Quickly Attains Hurricane Strength [Re: Clark]
      #77714 - Sat Sep 01 2007 09:38 PM

Wow. I've been away for the day and look what's happened. Felix becomes a Hurricane!

I was speculating in my last post that Felix appeared to be steadily intensifying, just from it's ever improving satellite signature and noticing an increase in the extent and amount and organinzation of it's developing rainband structures, coupled with it's highly favorable thermodynamic environment and steadily improving outflow.

Additionally, the inner core convection has remained quite deep and tightly wound for at least the last day, and an eyewall feature has finally emerged, as Felix has matured into a hurricane remarkably fast. As in 27 hours fast!

Remember. The little invest which mushroomed into TD-6 occured just 2 nights ago, during the diurnal convective maximum cycle. And, as was widely posted, the invest could well have been at TD strength well before the Hurricane Hunters arrived on the scene and confirmed with instrumentation and sensors the fact that bonafide cyclogenesis had indeed occured.

So the first advisory on TD-6 went up at 5pm EDT Friday. And now, as of 8pm EDT Saturday, we have Hurricane Felix. From Depression to Hurricane in 27 Hours!

During this period, central pressures have dropped from 1008mb to 993mb, a drop of only 15mb, or an average of about a half-millibar per hour. And I don't think that quite meets the criteria for the definition of 'Explosive Intensification' of a tropical cyclone, and I'll look for that info and add it into the post later.

But even giving, say, a day and a half - the past 36 hours from now - we've went from just another little ho-hum invest that *none* of the global models were picking up on, let alone prognosticating a full-blown hurricane in a mere 36 hours, to a now fully developed Classic Caribbean Hurricane.

And judging from Felix's already rather potent appearance, which only steadily continues to improve, I'd underscore my previous thinking that Felix may very well become a Major Hurricane, and sooner rather than later.

-----------------------------------------

>> Shear is expected to remain low to non-existent, so an even stronger hurricane wouldn't be out of the question by the end of the forecast period.

>>Remember that mid and long range *intensity forecasts* have a much greater degree of error than do those regarding location, and all environmental factors appear to be favorable, once Felix pulls away from Venezuela and is able to more easily expand its wind field and overall circulation envelope.

------------------------------------------

And, since that last post, it has indeed greatly expanded it's wind field and the extent of its circulation envelope, with it's rapidly developing, far-flung outer rainbands beginning to give this storm a much larger appearance.

We'll see what becomes of the pressure falls over the next day or two, and see if the criteria for 'Explosive Deepening' is attained and just how massive and potent Felix will eventually become. It certainly has all the earmarks of becoming a 'Dangerous Force' with which to contend.

And a slightly more northward track would certainly put much beloved Jamaica 'under the gun', again, where a TS Watch is already in effect.

It's certainly beginning to look like Felix could continue to evolve, and quite rapidly, into a very potent Classic Caribbean Hurricane. Let's just hope the ridging holds firm and keeps him far south of Jamaica and US Interests.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4112
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Recon [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #77715 - Sat Sep 01 2007 09:50 PM

My concerns right now are for Aruba, Bonaire, and the Netherlands Antilles. Felix is still moving due west and it hasn't cleared that latitude yet. The wind field on Felix is beginning to expand, and parts of those islands should probably be under a Hurricane Watch or warning if the westward movement continues. I have friends in Aruba and I have let them know about it already.

Beyond that, I still think Felix will stay further south, affecting Honduras. I hope nothing like Mitch did in 1998, but it could be, although Mitch was a slow mover. The coastline Felix is projected to near in Honduras is very vulnerable to mudslides and the like.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Recon [Re: MikeC]
      #77716 - Sat Sep 01 2007 09:55 PM

Hey Mike, could you record the radar images for a longer loop... there's only about 6 images in the current setup on the front page links. Looks more west, but its hard to tell with only six images... Eye is showing up nicely though

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Recon [Re: MikeC]
      #77717 - Sat Sep 01 2007 10:24 PM

I hope not a Mitch repeat

System is forming further east and is moving faster than Mitch. Unless it slows down and eventually stalls, it won't be a Mitch.

For the record, Mitch:
Unisys track: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1998/MITCH/track.gif
NHC analysis: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1998mitch.html
Atlantic tracks for 1998: http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/GifArchive/atl1998.gif


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Recon [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77718 - Sat Sep 01 2007 10:58 PM

Well he is moving west now at about 18mph...
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2007
...CENTER OF FELIX MOVING WESTWARD...LIKELY TO PASS JUST NORTH OF
BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA ON SUNDAY...

Will be able to follow it on radar for another 12-24 hrs..... Looks to pass close to Aruba.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: Recon [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #77719 - Sat Sep 01 2007 11:05 PM

Quote:

Hey Mike, could you record the radar images for a longer loop... there's only about 6 images in the current setup on the front page links. Looks more west, but its hard to tell with only six images... Eye is showing up nicely though


The link on the main page points directly at the Dutch Antilles weather website. I was in the process of writing a script to pull periodic radar images (what Mike does when he sets up custom radar loops for this site) and the entire site stopped responding, probably because it got overwhelmed with hits. It is too bad that someone can't get all these smaller weather sites linked into some common distribution method so that they don't get knocked offline when things like this happen.

Bill


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Recon [Re: BillD]
      #77720 - Sat Sep 01 2007 11:12 PM

Not to worry anyone, but this caught my eye in the NHC discussion on Felix:

"THE
RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO CALL
FOR A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...SO IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING IF FELIX WAS STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY 72 HR.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR MAY BE DEPENDENT ON A
COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES..."


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Texas Cane Tracker
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 21
Loc: Tomball, TX
Re: Recon [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77721 - Sat Sep 01 2007 11:28 PM

Can someone please tell me where I can see a visual of a ridge, and explain to me what to look for?

Thanks.


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc:
Re: Recon [Re: Texas Cane Tracker]
      #77722 - Sat Sep 01 2007 11:35 PM

What are your opinions of the ridge thats moving into the Gulf? How strong will it be and how long will it continue to keep Felix on a westerly track?

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Recon [Re: flahurricane]
      #77725 - Sun Sep 02 2007 01:08 AM

Quote:

What are your opinions of the ridge thats moving into the Gulf? How strong will it be and how long will it continue to keep Felix on a westerly track?




I refer you to post #77637 in "Tropical Depression #6 Forms East of Caribbean"

The southern routes are the most likely. But, this is not absolute, either, anomalies relative to anomalies happen occasionally. But for now, I think this is just like what took place with Dean when it, too, was in this lat/lon. There was all kinds of tough-to-refute reasons why it would turn N... But, there is an on-going anomally in the global atmospheric angular momentum, that is predominently negative -- particularly at these lower latitudes, which correlates to longitudinal bias, not recurvers.

I bet this is BOC bound. After that, Mexico.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Sep 02 2007 01:11 AM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Felix forms in Southeastern Caribbean [Re: Clark]
      #77726 - Sun Sep 02 2007 01:26 AM

Both key players (Felix & Henriette) tonight are doing nothing but improving their internal structures, while concurrently their respective environments improve, as well. Given these trends, hitting overnight convective maxes, and upcoming warm eddies (esp. for Felix) it's not difficult to buy into the figures coming out of the SHIPS Rapid Intensity Indexes.

Other recent systems - 96L looked about as good as a highly-sheared tropical storm as I've usually followed. Wouldn't be surprised if someone pipes up about giving it a second look when the season is done. Surprisingly-untagged is the feature now near 34N 60W, as Clark notes - looking as good as Barry or Chantal of earlier this season. (Just not as much a threat to land, if at all) Also, can't find any nearby obs from that area, and it has already begun melding with the approaching front.

Front draped across the south and which rides up the Ga/Sc coast needs to be watched for the potential of something bubbling up along it over the course of the next couple of days. Anything which might be able to develop along it.. (just offshore) ... could be a boomerang back at the states.

Plenty insight shared on 98L already, and I don't have much to add to it, other than I am wondering if it might be starting out *just* north enough to get looped back out to sea from the ULL currently centered around 25N 55W, and which has been digging in a little bit south of that tonight. There has been some hint of a trend for 98's convection to refire progressively north of wherever it fired up last, and might begin to be a case of chasing the deep convection.. progressively northbound and finally into the grasp of the ULL. If not, it could certainly end up a far greater concern for the islands in the northern Caribbean, and ultimately perhaps the CONUS. (All speculation at this point, of course - we don't even have a TD to concern ourselves with there, yet).


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Felix forms in Southeastern Caribbean [Re: cieldumort]
      #77727 - Sun Sep 02 2007 01:32 AM

URNT12 KNHC 020557

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062007
A. 02/05:40:40Z
B. 12 deg 40 min N
067 deg 40 min W
C. 700 mb 2975 m
D. 71 kt
E. 134 deg 007 nm
F. 236 deg 055 kt
G. 142 deg 012 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 6 C/ 3053 m
J. 13 C/ 3045 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. OPEN NNE
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0606A FELIX OB 09
MAX FL WIND 93 KT N QUAD 05:09:00 Z

Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 02 2007 02:10 AM)


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