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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 240
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #77796 - Sun Sep 02 2007 08:04 PM

Felix has much better symmetry than Dean and has had the trademark CAT 5 white ring cloud tops all day. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

It was obvious this morning Felix was destined to be CAT 5 fairly quickly.
I believe Felix will bottom out at a lower pressure than Dean.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #77797 - Sun Sep 02 2007 08:11 PM

Sounds like the plane took a major beating during the recent center fix:

BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND GROUPEL [sic] THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING
ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX.

Graupel are small frozen water droplets, like small hail stones. Flying through 160 knot-driven small hail stones would be a pretty stressful experience, for both the plane and for the people on board.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Sun Sep 02 2007 08:14 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #77800 - Sun Sep 02 2007 08:32 PM

i would expect the p-3 would have been pushed around alot on this storm, which is in rapid growth right now... and has a small core/center... p-3's are slower and smaller than the AF C-130 Aircraft... but with the frozen precip., i bet they got a few dents in them... can't wait to see the pictures they post online from the flight!!!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #77801 - Sun Sep 02 2007 08:32 PM

Quote:

Sounds like the plane took a major beating during the recent center fix:

BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND GROUPEL [sic] THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING
ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX.

Graupel are small frozen water droplets, like small hail stones. Flying through 160 knot-driven small hail stones would be a pretty stressful experience, for both the plane and for the people on board.




Absolutely! They can use Divorak to prove this is a daisy before they risk pushing up anyway. We do not want to hear about any crews safety being compromised any more than the inherent risk that is involved with this invaluable form of data retrieval.

That being said, I strongly suspect that they took a beating and are a bit thunderstruck at the prospect of doing any more activity on this tonight.

At 165mph, this is just 20mph shy of Wilma, btw, which may help put this into perspective. And, this system is still not yet finished intensifying given to the fact that there are 0 (that's NO) mitigators readily observable at this hour; Felix is about to traverse a +2sigma warm eddy anomaly, too, which is just absolutely....incredible!

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Sep 02 2007 08:37 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #77802 - Sun Sep 02 2007 08:35 PM

notice to that they reported "LIGHTNING ALL QUADS".... also on the last flight into the center... NOAA2 actually spent a few extra mins in the center.. say about 10-15mins... went in at about 10,000ft, and flew around in a circle to down to 7,000ft and went out...... the flight path is kinda different from all other normal flight paths... i post an image in a few mins...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Sep 02 2007 08:44 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4149
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #77803 - Sun Sep 02 2007 08:45 PM

Felix is just WOW! One of those systems I look at and can't believe. Which even doing this for 12 years, still surprises me.



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punkyg
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: sanford, florida
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #77804 - Sun Sep 02 2007 08:47 PM

Any one think that Felix is starting to take on a more annuler look?
do you think he'll be a annuler hurricane.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: punkyg]
      #77805 - Sun Sep 02 2007 08:56 PM

Quote:

Any one think that Felix is starting to take on a more annuler look?
do you think he'll be a annuler hurricane.




You could probably have done this type or research your self....but I have a moment:

Wikipedia defines them as having large, symmetric eyes surrounded by a ring of intense convection.

This has a small eye, but it does carry that ring characteristic with striking clarity!

The write-up also cautions that many strong storms take on similarities to annular hurricanes in some of the criteria. That may be more what is taking place here.

The term and science of annular hurricanes are relatively new in the lexicon and knowledge of the field, so not much is yet understood about their behavior.

Right now it does not appear to be an annular system and since not much is known about them, it is virtually impossible to predict whether this will evolve into one. Isabel was an annular system at one time and if you look at sat pictures of her during that:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hurricane_Isabel.JPG
Courtacy Wikipedia!
...you can see some definite difference to this system at this time.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Sep 02 2007 09:01 PM)


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: punkyg]
      #77806 - Sun Sep 02 2007 09:08 PM

Quote:

Any one think that Felix is starting to take on a more annuler look?
do you think he'll be a annuler hurricane.




The visually awesome infrared image Mike posted lends itself to the "annular" appearance you are seeing, mostly due to the cloudtops.

If you look at the regular visual loops, Felix still exhibits classic spiraling rain bands.



--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Sun Sep 02 2007 09:11 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #77807 - Sun Sep 02 2007 09:09 PM

i thought this was pretty neat

A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT LANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...
AND THIS DROP YIELDED A
SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 139 KT BASED ON THE LOWEST 150 M LAYER AVERAGE.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE PEAK SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT
LEAST 145 KT. AN EYE SONDE MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 936 MB
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 24 KT.

so its quite possible that the pressure was even lower, with the 30 mph winds at the surface?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #77809 - Sun Sep 02 2007 09:29 PM

i wondered on the shape of it earlier today also... annular storms if i remember right from the one that came near hawaii react differently than normal storms do... in track and maintaining strength.

I am not saying he is .. im saying if he is... would add in new factors to take into consideration

watch him on Dvorak he is hyptnozing i cant think what to look at next

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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CoconutCandy
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #77810 - Sun Sep 02 2007 09:33 PM

I'm Majorly Impressed, pun Intended.

In my last post at 8am EDT, when Felix was still at Cat 2, I surmised that I might wake up to a Cat 3. (I'm 6 hours behind Florida.)

But it was already an impressive Cat 4. And now, a mere 12 hours after that post, we have a very intense Cat 5! that shows no signs of slowing in it's intensification.

If memory serves me, we had just another 'ho-hum' Invest-94, just east of the Caribbean, that most models were not even picking up on, let alone prognosticating a full-blown massive Category 5 Hurricane in just over 50 hours!

I'm a little surprised by the central pressures all along with this storm. Felix went from TD-6 to a Cat 1 hurricane in 27 hours, with a drop of *only* 15 millibars. Hmmm ... How is this possible?

And the most current dropsonde reports back 936mb, which 'normally' equates with a low-end Cat 4. Cat 5's 'start' at around 920mb and lower.

Usually, the pressures drop first and the winds follow suit. Here, it would appear that Felix is displaying the opposite. And Mike has mentioned that the radius of Hurricane force winds only extend out 25 miles or so, which seems to many of us rather unusual.

I'm wondering if these two peculiarities are related or intertwined in some way? Feel free chime in and add your thoughts on all this, please. This is very curious to me. We still have much to learn about rapid intensification! ala 'Charlie' and 'Flossie', etc.

Felix is awesomely impressive in itself, but the fact it really roughed up the Recon crew to the extent that they had to abort their mission speaks volumes.

Not in my memory of watching storms over many years, do I recall a Recon team that had to call it quits and retreat to homebase with a dented plane from the graupel blasting and a shaken crew from the extreme turbulence.

I think Felix may well have a few more tricks up his sleeve, which will be played out for all the world to see, in the coming days. Hold on for *this* ride, and pray that the ridge remains intact!


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weather999
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 25
Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #77813 - Sun Sep 02 2007 10:00 PM

I was just doing a bit of research:

At the 11:00 AM AST adv:

"MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB."

The most recent advisory-8 PM EST (9 PM AST):

"MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB."

46 MB drop between those advisories, if these advisories are about 10 hours apart (im not completely sure if they are, I get confused when trop cyclones move into different time zones)-this equates to a 4.6 mb/hour drop!

Please correct me if I am wrong on any of this, because I repeat that I am not completely sure that my info is accurate.

Thanks


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
annular [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #77814 - Sun Sep 02 2007 10:02 PM

annular hurricane just means i has a large eye and complete, highly symmetrical CDO. sort of a 'death ring' CDO. it's the appearance some very intense hurricanes take on, usually after going through their pinhole-eye stage while intensifying rapidly. i wouldn't call felix 'annular' right now... maybe it's getting close, but the dimensions of the storm don't fit that particular meaning unless i'm mistaken.
i wonder if that plane was in real danger. they don't usually abort recon flights like that unless something was going bad wrong. reckon we'll have a lot of hair-raising details in the 11pm discussion.
HF 0202z03september


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! [Re: weather999]
      #77815 - Sun Sep 02 2007 10:03 PM

Impressive microwave pass just in: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc07/ATL/06L.FELIX/tc_ssmis/91h/1degreeticks/full/Latest.html

Felix looks incredible everywhere I'm seeing it.

--RC


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #77816 - Sun Sep 02 2007 10:13 PM

remember one thing.. most cat 5s have that sort of annular look.. doesn't make them so..

just a hurricane is at its most photogenic as a category 2 or 3.. once they start exploding and deepening they turn into mean round balls of solid screaming winds... harder to see the bands and they all look rather round. Andrew while over Miami was that way .. except for one long band which arced up to the north and swung around through the georgias and carolinas it looked like one colorful round ball on ir..

either way.. a lot to factor in tonight suddenly and we will learn from this storm for years..
but the storm has barely begun to live

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED! [Re: Random Chaos]
      #77817 - Sun Sep 02 2007 10:14 PM Attachment (351 downloads)

i would say with the smaller eye in felix... we can almost relate this more towards the last Hurricane Wilma, in structure size, shape, strength... (not path, etc)... but i am beginning to think that we might see something amazing tonight out of this system when the next AF recon gets into the system... i would epect in the next adv.. they will keep the current pressure and winds... due to the fact no recon, but would talk that they may be going conservative.... until next recon?

Attached the last good vis of Felix... just another amazing hurricane

Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Sep 02 2007 10:17 PM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
dvorak keeps changing [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #77818 - Sun Sep 02 2007 10:29 PM

the whole core is getting whiter than earlier and the bubble of white that was on the NW side of the storm has expanded.. gotten bigger

does anyone know if that is indicative of anything

its an amazing process to watch and as we don't have recon right now..
i feel the best thing to look at is the Dvorak even though others are prettier color wise

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd.jpg

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: dvorak keeps changing [Re: LoisCane]
      #77819 - Sun Sep 02 2007 10:36 PM

based on this IR, same product i used durning Wilma.... it still showed some signs of very cold clouds tops after recon had to depart.... so there is a chance that it may be stronger than we know... only real way to know for sure is to have recon.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI1_ir_loop.gif

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Felix [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #77820 - Sun Sep 02 2007 10:37 PM

The Weather Channel reported the NOAA plane aborted due to the graupel-small hail. They had reported earlier that the NOAA plane observed 1 mb drop per mile on one of the inbound legs to Felix.
I.e. a 60mb drop over 60nm starting at 1008mb. (That will make your ears pop like crazy!)

Felix is way above the pressure wind relationship as stated above. 934mb should be in the 140mph range, and 165mph should be in the 902mb range.
Hurricanes don't read the books obviously.

It appears that the pressure is working as intended. I'm now seeing 25C temperatures in the EYE at nearly 10000 feet. Earlier today the warmest temp. was 15C or 59F.

I forgot to mention the possibility of an ERC. Random Chaos' link above eluded to the early appearance of the double/ triple eyewall on satellite.
SSMI overpass

Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 02 2007 10:41 PM)


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