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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Beach]
      #78081 - Sat Sep 08 2007 10:43 PM

From what I understand Gabby isn't moving west it's just that convection is building on the west side of the storm and expanding is giving the illusion that it's moving west but agree with NHC that it's still going nw. Someone or any Mets tell me if I'm wrong and it is moving west now?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc:
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Unregistered User]
      #78082 - Sat Sep 08 2007 10:53 PM

Quote:

How about the hurricane of 1938 that devastated Providence RI and the SE Coast of Massachusetts?
Wasn't it a small storm that explode in the vicinity of delmarva or further north?



No, it was a large storm that had been tracked for weeks and according to ship reports and estimates at the time, it was a category 5 heading towards Miami and then when it started turning north at the Bahamas.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #78083 - Sat Sep 08 2007 10:55 PM

Looking at the radar loop, I would say it is moving west. Having said that, radar loops can trick the eye, so I judge motion from the IR loop (since it's dark out)... where I see a hint that it might be moving SOUTH of due west even. Could be an illusion.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Hugh]
      #78084 - Sat Sep 08 2007 11:07 PM

Wierd, I saw the same thing. On the following link,
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-wv.html

if you click Trop Fcst Pts it shows you the projected path of Gabby, and she isnt even on her track. It looks as though she may be taking a dodge for Florida. And as for Florida, we here in Miami are getting severe thunderstorms..

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Hugh]
      #78085 - Sat Sep 08 2007 11:07 PM

Even if it was moving west to due south of west this isn't a call for a shift of the track or anything right? I mean for it to be movement and not a simple wobble it has to occur for more then an hour or less doesn't it?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #78086 - Sat Sep 08 2007 11:13 PM

My only thing is how can movement be tracked yet if the NHC isn't clear where the COC is? Guess we'll find out when the HH get there. Which by the way what time should they be arriving in/to Gabby?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 355
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #78087 - Sat Sep 08 2007 11:15 PM

I think you all are being fooled by watching the convection....if it is on the north of the LLC, of course it is going to move west, then sw as it circulates. IR loop shows the center of circulation still moving NW.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #78088 - Sat Sep 08 2007 11:21 PM

You'll have to zoom a bit, but I think there will be a track adjustment at 2.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

If you look at the outflow it is shifting.


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Beach]
      #78089 - Sat Sep 08 2007 11:25 PM

I honestly don't know how to tell if the outflow is shifting so can someone tell me is it shifting?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Beach]
      #78090 - Sat Sep 08 2007 11:29 PM

Quote:

You'll have to zoom a bit, but I think there will be a track adjustment at 2.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

If you look at the outflow it is shifting.




I looked up a few other visuals besides the one you list and yes, I also see it shifting to west southwest.

http://www.accuweather.com/radar-large.a...ate&large=1


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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #78091 - Sat Sep 08 2007 11:30 PM

Try this link:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-bd.html

You can clearly see the circulation of the storm, the few frames it tightens and moves SW


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc:
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Beach]
      #78102 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:09 AM

it almost looks like a wobble just south of west...it looks like the convection is building to the east a little more this early-morning.. either way that front should push it away pretty quickly

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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: flahurricane]
      #78103 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:14 AM

ARe HH out there yet so we can know for sure what direction Gabby is moving? I still believe NW and have a feeling the convection and radar is making it seem that a West or even SW jog has taken place.

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #78104 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:17 AM

yeah, recon is out there....
At 05:13:30Z (last observation), the observation was 130 miles (210 km) to the SSE (150°) from Wilmington, NC, USA.

this is intersting... the basically flew right down I-10, from Mobile to Jacksonville, to just east of Jacksonville, then turned north... up the coast.... there down to 2,500ft

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Sep 09 2007 01:20 AM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: flahurricane]
      #78105 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:19 AM

I just looked through the CMISS analysis graphics and it looks like it might be getting sheared slightly to the SW. The vortex movement, and I'm assuming the low pressure center movement, is W, but the convection is moving SW, indicating shear.

Also, if you look at the vorticity centers at the 850mb and 700mb level, you will see that the 700mb is just to the SW of the 850mb level, also indicating shear.

At least I think that is what I am seeing

--RC

Edit: Take this post with question; my next post is on Quickscat which is interesting and throws this one into doubt.

Edited by Random Chaos (Sun Sep 09 2007 01:31 AM)


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Random Chaos]
      #78106 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:23 AM

Not sure if I'm understanding that right but are you saying it looks to be moving SW because of shear but the LLC is moving West and the convection and LLC are moving in 2 different directions?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #78107 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:26 AM

Hmm, now I am confused

Quickscat ( http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/latest_at_0.html ) is showing the center of rotation at 76W 32N but the IR is showing the convection centered about 76.5W 33N with the quickscat position entirely exposed.

This would indicate either strong shear or continued subtropical state (NHC classified it as Tropical today).

Anyone have tips on this discrepancy?


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Random Chaos]
      #78108 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:33 AM

recon should be almost there now... winds at flight level have picked up to about the 45mph range
05:23:30Z at 33.03N 76.43W From 299° at 39 knots (From the WNW at ~ 44.8 mph)
Observation Number: 22 HDOB
At 05:14:00Z (first observation), the observation was 130 miles (209 km) to the SSE (149°) from Wilmington, NC, At 05:23:30Z (last observation), the observation was 119 miles (191 km) to the S (171°) from Morehead City, NC.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Random Chaos]
      #78109 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:33 AM

Hard to find the center exactly and the 11pm discussion talked on this problem, or tried to explain it..

She is way to the west on any loop you look at.. it may be mostly her convection and if so suddenly her convection is displaced to the left instead of the right like it used to be which means something

any way you look at it... at least for the time being something is going on

and recon is there so ...we should have more data by 2 and if not by 2.. the 5am should be a very interesting read..

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/archive/2007/Gabrielle/HDOB/AF/04/map.shtml
nothing like sitting up with friends watching the plane circle around on google lol

Radar can sometimes be deceiving but this has been going on now for a while tonight... hard to know exactly where the center is but recon should get a fix or two..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: Subtropical Storm Gabrielle Forms Southeast of the Carolinas [Re: Random Chaos]
      #78110 - Sun Sep 09 2007 01:36 AM

Quote:

Hmm, now I am confused



Ha! Ha!
I remain confused - lol.
I swear I see Gabrielle moving more southwesterly...and I have a keen interest in that area as a very dear friend of mine lives on the ocean across from Wilmington. I'll wait for the 0200 update and see what gives.

Now to confuse myself EVEN more:

This new 90L info on this site http://flhurricane.com/sbanimator.php?year=2007&storm=8
has 90L in the middle of the Gulf.

Yet when I look on my local radar as well as this link
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR2.html
I am seeing a humongous mess in south and southwest Florida!


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