Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


LAND THREATS: Invest #99L is now TD 5 heading towards Caribbean. #98L inland over S FL. NEW #90L approaching TX/LA coast.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Barry) , Major: 318 (Michael) Florida - Any: 318 (Michael) Major: 318 (Michael)
10.4N 47.9W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1010mb
Moving:
W at 12 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
Invest 98LClick for Invest Information from CIMSS
Invest 90LClick for Invest Information from CIMSS
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | >> (show all)
ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: scottsvb]
      #78313 - Wed Sep 12 2007 03:27 PM

Quote:

I would think 40mph is about right with the pressure.
Allan it wont be no 55mph storm at 5pm and probably wont get higher due to proximaty to land.




You are correct - it won't be 55 at 5pm because it is that speed much sooner according to the most current Recon findings at this writing.

And just like Clark wrote with his SFMR data; Allan being right on with his scientific observations, and with the pressure dropping, we are looking at a compact storm which is strengthening.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: ltpat228]
      #78314 - Wed Sep 12 2007 03:33 PM

SFWMD put Herbert's box up with TD 8; yikes!?!


http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_08.gif


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #78315 - Wed Sep 12 2007 03:40 PM

Quote:

SFWMD put Herbert's box up with TD 8; yikes!?!


http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_08.gif




Nothing to worry about from that image; they've been putting it up for all three of the deep Atlantic storms this year.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Clark]
      #78316 - Wed Sep 12 2007 03:49 PM


Nothing to worry about from that image; they've been putting it up for all three of the deep Atlantic storms this year.






I'm only worried if TD8 goes through it.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: ltpat228]
      #78317 - Wed Sep 12 2007 03:51 PM

I think the biggest concern with Humberto is the amount of rain Texas might get from the storm. Local met says landfall should
be somewhere around Galveston Bay.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78318 - Wed Sep 12 2007 03:57 PM Attachment (331 downloads)

recon is about to turn north and head back towards the center...
I'm working on a KML for HDOB... running into a few little errors... but may have a beta version soon.

Attached is the flight path of current recon.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: danielw]
      #78319 - Wed Sep 12 2007 04:05 PM

Quote:

Steve... Don't forget the Tornadoes.
You are in Lockport and in the NE Quadrant. That location is known for tornadoes- along with some other towns in that area. Must be the topography.

The east side of the storm has moisture extending south beyond the latitude of the Tx MX Border as Steve said.
A looping track would mean lots of water in the canals and bayous over a 3-5 day period.




Like danielw pointed out.. i think small weak tornadoes will be of concern.. especially east of where the center comes ashore... in the feeder band thats south of Houston offshore

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78320 - Wed Sep 12 2007 04:21 PM

recon is passing through center again right now.... just glanced over some level II radar data... a few cells just to the east of Galvaston show weak rotation in them... heading to the NW - West.. Keep an eye to local tv news or NOAA wx radio... for possible watches and warnings

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 444
Loc: Georgia Tech
Humberto [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78321 - Wed Sep 12 2007 04:43 PM

Well, it certainly is trying to get together, 999mb with a banding eyewall trying to form noted in the latest recon.

I doubt it'll get to Hurricane force, but it's trying really hard to get organized and going. (being a small storm does help, but even so it should run out of time)

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2019.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78322 - Wed Sep 12 2007 04:43 PM

Recon fixed it on that pass with a central pressure of 999mb and confirmed what we're seeing on Houston/Galveston radar -- banding eyewall trying to form. The winds still aren't all that strong overall, but the structure is certainly there.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Clark]
      #78324 - Wed Sep 12 2007 05:01 PM

So, how much time does he have left before landfall and how much rain could we see here close to the TX/La border? We should get some of the
outer rain bands. We are getting rain now. Good thing he is so
close to land or we might have a stronger system coming in near Galveston Bay.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78325 - Wed Sep 12 2007 05:10 PM

I was 5 mph off but it deffinatly sounds a bit conservative.. I still call for a 60-65 mph. landfall sometime tonight around just east of Galveston. . At some points the radar look of it has fooled me into thinking it was already at 60 mph, that's how impressive the radar is right now.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Wed Sep 12 2007 05:48 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Humberto [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78326 - Wed Sep 12 2007 05:19 PM

Beaumont and others in the Areas of SW La and SE TX... especially those South of Interstate 10.

While Humberto is:
Close to shore- 50 miles south of Galveston
Has maximum winds of 50 mph

The storm is moving at 7 mph. So that would give a current minimum of 8 hours ...for the northern half of the storm to make landfall!

You are looking at 12 hours minumum of rainfall at varible rates.


Nightfall will be arriving in about 4 hours.
The system has intensified from nothing at all 24 hours ago to it's present 50 mph Tropical Storm status.
The pressure is still dropping-bad sign

See the links below for local NWS Hurricane Local Statements from TX and LA.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls4.shtml

If you live or know someone that lives in an area that has flash flooded or flooded before.
Please make plans now-before dark, to evacuate your home or work if Local NWS and Emergency Management Officials issue orders to do so


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Humberto [Re: danielw]
      #78327 - Wed Sep 12 2007 05:32 PM

Humberto is looking good on all views. Radar is showing the convection continuing to wrap. Dvorak IR view looks to me somewhere between 3.5 and 4.5 with the Ramdis Digital Dvorak reading about 4.5. Need to wait 3 hours to get the official SSD update of the Dvorak reading. The last few visible satellite images showed what look to be some high towers forming near the core of the storm, but they aren't showing up on IR yet.

My personal feeling is that this is going to continue to strengthen all the way until landfall. Since it is so close to shore and moving slowly, as has been stated, significant rain is the biggest threat.

Edit: Here is Humberto about 20 minutes before Recon passed through: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realt...5170000.1km.jpg

--RC
Hobbiest (I'm not a pro).

Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Sep 12 2007 05:43 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
humberto and friends [Re: Random Chaos]
      #78329 - Wed Sep 12 2007 06:33 PM

that danged 90L did nothing but persist for the better part of four days before developing. now it's coming up fast--pressure has fallen around 10mb since last night, and it still has a few hours before coming in. should landfall in galveston county tx, somewhere on the bolivar peninsula, barring any early northeastward turn. the inner core is fairly small.. should wobble a good bit as it comes in with not-so-forceful steering and an increasingly asymmetric windfield.. might actually jerk back left closer to the houston metro area due to this.
coastal effects, aside from substantial rainfall, shouldn't be the big story with this little guy. the south central part of the u.s was inundated most of the summer with above normal rainfall. humberto isn't going into one of the worst possible places, but it isn't going into a particularly good one either. lousiana and missisippi look to pile on some decent rainfall from this one.
dependent on how vertically stacked the weakening system stays inland, the building ridge of high pressure might actually push whatever is left back offshore. i don't expect the weather pattern would be particularly friendly for redevelopment were this to happen, but that sort of thing is worth paying attention to. whatever does track back offshore after the oncoming shortwave shears most of the system away would likely turn westward this weekend, if it remains.
91L became TD8, and i wonder why the NHC chose this numbering scheme. both systems developed simulataneously, and i would have bet that what is now humberto would become a storm first. why the NHC set it up so that 9 became humberto and 8 will become ingrid beats me.
td8 is probably ingrid already. NHC's philosophy on keeping it a depression at 5 baffles me. it is obviously getting easterly shear, and the cloud pattern is running at 2.5, which usually makes it a tropical storm. my logic would go that sheared systems are usually stronger than Dvorak estimates, so it is more likely a tropical storm than not.. but NHC sees uncertainty in the location of its center. yeah, i do see that the vortex is elongated on visibles, so that line of logic might figure. still strikes me as odd that they waited as long to classify it, and are waiting to upgrade it still.
anyhow, ridiculous arguments aside... TD8/future ingrid will probably be one of those systems that menaces the east coast, if it doesn't find some way to kill itself. ridging is forecast to stay more or less locked in the western atlantic through next week, which would act to accelerate the system westward past the five day window. the big caveats will be whatever is behind ingrid, and whatever that upper trough forecast to start gnawing at the storm over the weekend will do. we had what was gabrielle poised to swing back on the east coast under strong ridging, but an upper low swooped onto it and squashed it long enough that it never had time to organize as it started its run. by this weekend we'll have a better idea whether ingrid is something that will be a threat near the end of next week.
wave back near 35-40w has decent definition and spotty convection... will play into ingrid's future if it goes up. wave passing the cv islands is further south and well-defined, and may also be a player.
one last thing is the pattern-induced pressure falls near the bahamas late this week. i'd watch there, even though it seems like nothing of consequence should be there.
blah, that was a pile. i'll leave it to y'all to decide what kind of pile it is.
HF 2233z12september


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Todd
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 30
Loc: Havelock, NC(34.89n76.92w)
Re: humberto and friends [Re: HanKFranK]
      #78334 - Wed Sep 12 2007 06:55 PM

Quote:

why the NHC set it up so that 9 became humberto and 8 will become ingrid beats me.
td8 is probably ingrid already.
HF 2233z12september




Just an observation ...reading my home insurance... NAMED STORM ... decides/tiggers what category it falls into as far as wether to pay or not. Believe me when I say it's not some master plot, the insurance companies don't run NOAA... just has a lot of bearing on insurance matters.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: humberto and friends [Re: Todd]
      #78335 - Wed Sep 12 2007 07:01 PM

Recon just returned a dropsonde in the eye of 998mb. There was 7kt winds, so it might not have been dead center.

Edit - vortex message in:

292
URNT12 KNHC 122247
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092007
A. 12/22:34:40Z
B. 28 deg 41 min N
094 deg 50 min W
C. 850 mb 1413 m
D. 53 kt
E. 026 deg 13 nm
F. 122 deg 041 kt
G. 027 deg 014 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 15 C/ 1532 m
J. 20 C/ 1537 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0209A CYCLONE OB 23
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 20:47:50 Z
GOOD RADAR BANDING



Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Sep 12 2007 07:05 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: humberto and friends [Re: Random Chaos]
      #78337 - Wed Sep 12 2007 07:33 PM

I hate to say it, but, based upon the current radar presentation, and the continual drop in pressure, now to 998, with still as much as 8 hours over water... the possibility of Humberto reaching Cat 1 intensity - a casual, almost joking matter a mear 12 hours ago - is becoming more and more likely. I still think Humberto will miss the mark, just barely (landfalling in the 65-70 mph range), but I would not be shocked if they upgraded Humberto in the post-storm analysis. Someone else mentioned insurance - I'm sure there are probably many people with policies that provide different coverage for depressions and named storms, and even different coverage for named storms and hurricanes. I know this was a bit of a gripe I had two seasons ago, when the NHC upgraded Katrina just as it made its initial landfall along the Atlantic coast of Florida. Obviously the NHC has to go with what their data is telling them, but at that time, I felt like Katrina had winds of 75mph before the NHC made the call. That tidbit got justifiably forgotten in the devastation that came days later.

With Humberto, I suspect things may materialize in a similar fashion, in that the storm may reach minimal hurricane intensity just prior to landfall. Hopefully it doesn't stall out.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: humberto and friends [Re: Hugh]
      #78339 - Wed Sep 12 2007 07:40 PM

Well, they put out a new vortex recon with outbound data, hitting 51kt surface winds.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: humberto and friends [Re: Random Chaos]
      #78340 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:03 PM

Well, it looks like we are going to dodge a huge bullit here in the Houston area. Looks like the center of Humberto is going to make landfall to the east of us and take most of the rain with it. Looks more like the Beaumont area is the place where people need to be concerned. Good luck to you all.

Shawn


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 4 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 64618

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center