Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


#Barry now a sprawling Post-Tropical Cyclone, but still producing flooding. Few disturbances in the Atlantic we are keeping eyes on.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 5 (Barry) , Major: 280 (Michael) Florida - Any: 280 (Michael) Major: 280 (Michael)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | >> (show all)
charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78363 - Thu Sep 13 2007 12:31 AM

Folks, I think we have a hurricane. An eye is clearly visible on Houston Radar. And if it's not yet it's extremley close.
The storm doesn't seem to be moving much at all. Humberto kinda just popped up outta nowhere. I think that's kinda the
theme for the season.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto [Re: charlottefl]
      #78364 - Thu Sep 13 2007 12:47 AM

We should know something shortly.
RECON is about 45nm to the ENE of the 10PM CDT center estimate.

Tropical Storm force winds,greater than 39 knots at 5000ft, extend out to 60 nm NE of the Center.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: charlottefl]
      #78365 - Thu Sep 13 2007 12:50 AM

Quote:

Folks, I think we have a hurricane. An eye is clearly visible on Houston Radar. And if it's not yet it's extremley close.
The storm doesn't seem to be moving much at all. Humberto kinda just popped up outta nowhere. I think that's kinda the
theme for the season.




Well we have an open eye to the south of center of the low... but were about to confirm this with recon which is not that far off... At 04:37:00Z (last observation), the observation was 50 miles (80 km) to the SSE (166°) from Beaumont, TX. Something kinda strange... parts of the HDOB data seems missing/messed up... but there still tracking inward.... data started to mess up after they flew through first feedband near TX/LA at 6,000ft.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Humberto Upgrade??? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78366 - Thu Sep 13 2007 12:54 AM

176077 079
That's wind from 176degrees at 77knots at 5000ft.
Peak average of 79knots.
That might just upgrade Humberto!
Distance was 22 nm from the 10 PM CDT Center.

Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 13 2007 12:55 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78367 - Thu Sep 13 2007 12:56 AM

also noticing that the west side of the TS is getting eroded with Dry air... rain shield only goes about 25 miles to the NW from center... keeps getting closer and closer to center... Dry air is really working its way toward... this system seems to be getting smaller and smaller....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Humberto Upgrade??? [Re: danielw]
      #78368 - Thu Sep 13 2007 12:58 AM

Quote:

176077 079
That's wind from 176degrees at 77knots at 5000ft.
Peak average of 79knots.
That might just upgrade Humberto!
Distance was 22 nm from the 10 PM CDT Center.





Yep... seeing the same thing... they flew in on the NE side.. got to the south part of whats left of the center and turned and headed towards galveston... at 04:44:30Z at 29.23N 94.33W flt. level -30 sec wind avg. From 176° at 77 knots (From the S at ~ 88.5 mph). opps there at (~ 4,859 feet)

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 13 2007 01:03 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Humberto Upgrade??? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78369 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:04 AM

Humberto is trying desperately to close the eye on the S and W side. It keeps going from more closed to less (back and forth) for the past several hours.
I do believe though that with the open eye and recon findings this will be upgraded at 2AM. The real question becomes how much more can Humberto
strengthen before landfall?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Humberto Upgrade??? [Re: charlottefl]
      #78370 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:12 AM

Quote:

Humberto is trying desperately to close the eye on the S and W side. It keeps going from more closed to less (back and forth) for the past several hours.
I do believe though that with the open eye and recon findings this will be upgraded at 2AM. The real question becomes how much more can Humberto
strengthen before landfall?





just watching the level II data and surface data from TX... i think Humberto has probaly reached its max... i think landfall near High Island, TX.. in less than 3 hrs... and i do think we will see weakening soon... just look.. from about 12 o'clock to about 7 o'clock on the system, clockwise... (north to east to south, around the storm) it looks alright... but then you look on the west side of the system... it looks bad.. Dry air winning out it looks to me...right now... Heck, i think they call it Galveston bay, between Houston and Galveston... Half of it is not even raining in no more...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 13 2007 01:13 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Humberto Upgrade??? [Re: charlottefl]
      #78371 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:14 AM

Double checking the data. RECON flew into the Center from due East.
The max flight level wind, posted above, of 77 knots was 10nm east of the Center.
Max SFMR estimated surface winds were 70 knots-80mph at 8 nm east of the Center.

Using the NHC flight level to surface reduction for 850mb flight-5000ft of 80%.
SFMR would be near 74mph.
Max flight level wind would be near 80 mph surface wind speed.

These are my quick, estimates. We will have to wait on the next Advisory from NHC/ TPC.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Humberto Upgrade??? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78373 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:16 AM

recon got down just off the beach of Freeport, TX and has done a 180 heading back.. Heck there about 3-6 miles off the beach, flying back NE, at about 5,000ft.

302
URNT12 KNHC 130456
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092007
A. 13/04:47:30Z
B. 29 deg 15 min N
094 deg 30 min W
C. 850 mb 1359 m
D. 70 kt
E. 101 deg 7 nm
F. 178 deg 079 kt
G. 097 deg 008 nm
H. 992 mb
I. 13 C/ 1531 m
J. 21 C/ 1528 m
K. 0 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C8
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0309A HUMBERTO OB 05
MAX FL WIND 79 KT E QUAD 04:44:40 Z
RAGGED EYEWALL
DEW POINT INOP dang it!! inop? inoperable?

I am betting when they went through that first feeder band on the way out, i bet they took a lighting hit.. cause dewpoint was working on the way over LA and into the Gulf...



--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 13 2007 01:24 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Humberto Upgrade??? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78374 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:31 AM

So they are using the Peak Average Flight Level Wind.

I saw a 994mb in the NE Eyewall dropsonde. That was an indicator the central pressure was still dropping.

This storm is beginning to be a pain. And we aren't in La or Tx. Humberto is beating the models with a Texas Punch.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc:
Re: Humberto Upgrade??? [Re: danielw]
      #78375 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:35 AM

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL...
...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COVER SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF CENTER...

AT 1215 AM CDT...0515Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR HUMBERTO MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 992
MB...29.29 INCHES.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Dewpoint Inop [Re: danielw]
      #78378 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:37 AM

you are correct the dew point "INOP" is short for inoperable.
I noticed they lost it when they started their descent from the flight in. About the same time the d value disappeared.

Dropsonde got a good hit on the temps in the Eye.

Surface is at 992mb
Temperature / dewpoint at 992mb: 27.2C / 24.2C

Temperature / dewpoint at 992mb: 27.2C / 24.2C
Temperature / dewpoint at 850mb: 21.6C / 16C
Temperature / dewpoint at 846mb: 21C / 15.2C
Temperature / dewpoint at 843mb: 20.4C / 13.4C

Humberto is drawing the warm moist air up to at least 5000 feet. The 843mb level is right at 5000 feet.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Humberto Upgrade??? [Re: flahurricane]
      #78379 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:39 AM Attachment (289 downloads)

recon is flying in center right now... actually they came in from the SW and flew up the western eyewall and then truned to the NE... winds went all the way down to 5 kts then right back up to strong TS force... looks like to me they are trying to get good data on the eyewall before it makes it ashore here in the next little bit.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 13 2007 01:46 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Hurricane Humberto [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78380 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:40 AM

WTNT44 KNHC 130534
TCDAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
115 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPGRADE HUMBERTO TO A HURRICANE. BOTH THE INITIAL AND 12-HOUR INTENSITY FORECAST HAVE BEEN INCREASED...
AND A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE UPGRADE IS BASED ON DATA RECEIVED FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AND NOAA NWS DOPPLER RADAR.

Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 13 2007 01:43 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hurricane Humberto [Re: danielw]
      #78381 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:44 AM

WTNT24 KNHC 130532
TCMAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
0515 UTC THU SEP 13 2007

AT 1215 AM CDT...0515Z... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR HUMBERTO MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF SARGENT
TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS...AND FROM EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Humberto [Re: danielw]
      #78382 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:44 AM

Well tell ya what...first miss of the year for me and for 99% of forecasters. No one last night would of said that this was going to be a hurricane in less then 24hrs...infact 18 hrs from not classified. Only wishcasters got this 1 right...lol. But a few did pick up on this becoming a hurricane like Cied did... kudos to him as he did well.

Now that its a hurricane...its about to weaken and moving inland.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hurricane Humberto [Re: scottsvb]
      #78383 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:47 AM

URNT12 KNHC 130541
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092007
A. 13/05:24:20Z
B. 29 deg 20 min N
094 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1351 m
D. 48 kt
E. 212 deg 8 nm
F. 298 deg 055 kt
G. 209 deg 007 nm
H. 990 mb
I. 17 C/ 1528 m
J. 22 C/ 1515 m
K. 0 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C6
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / NA nm
P. AF306 0309A HUMBERTO OB 09
MAX FL WIND 79 KT E QUAD 04:44:40 Z
MAX OUTBOUND WIND 76KTS NE QUAD 05:27:00Z
MET ACCURACY 2NM
EYEWALL RAGGED
DEW POINT INOP

Scott, I hope that you are right on Humberto moving inland.
Pressure is down 2mb in less than an hour. And the EYE is 2nm smaller than it was less than an hour ago.
And listed as being "CLOSED".
6nm diameter vacumn cleaner!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Hurricane Humberto [Re: scottsvb]
      #78384 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:49 AM

also just an update... NOAA2 plane did make it to Barbados...This afternoon... Looks like they landed at Grantley Adams International Airport there in Barbados...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Hurricane Humberto [Re: danielw]
      #78385 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:52 AM

here's some weather stations in the Galveston area... i am trying to get a better idea on the dry air... and whats causing the drop in the pressure, etc... just before landfall...

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp?zip=77550&magic=1&wmo=99999

**also i am shocked there calling it closed... the radar data is throwing me off...*** just doesn't look like its closed all the way, but thats what recon is for

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 13 2007 01:54 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 8 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 64230

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center