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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78408 - Thu Sep 13 2007 07:59 AM

I can't think of too many systems that almost tripled in strength within a 12 hour period, that's for sure.

As good as the NHC's track has been for the last several storms, they seem to have missed it a bit with Humberto, particularly in terms of intensity, forecasting a 50-60mph tropical storm and getting an 85mph hurricane. The track has also been consistantly left of the forecast, and even now it appears to be doing the same thing - 7am advisory has Humberto moving NE at 12, while it looks to me on radar to be moving almost due east over the last hour. A more southern track will result in less weakening, I believe, since the land in this part of Louisiana is at best not much above sealevel.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Hurricane Humberto [Re: scottsvb]
      #78409 - Thu Sep 13 2007 08:07 AM

Quote:

Only wishcasters got this 1 right...




Ok, i'll tell you and everyone this again, I did not wishcast this storm.. I have scientific proof on my backup for a strong TS / Hurricane landfall...
1st, I knew this would strengthen to a Hurricane before I went to bed because I found winds on the bouys to be very ominious.
2nd, The waters in that area are VERY warm, you could not have told me it wouldn't have time when we saw Felix and Wilma ramp up the way they did.. at some points in FORECASTING, not wishcasting, you might need to look at past events.
3rd. Humberto was going to get strong, there was no doubt in my mind about this.. I started to say around 5 p.m. yesterday, IF this were to continue, it COULD ramp up into a Hurricane at landfall.. and this is no surprise to me..
Hurricane Claudette ramped up from 65 to 80 mph. storm in one night.. Durinal Maximum took the toll on this one... and I knew it would!
Wishcasting is people who point out where the storm is going to go without scientific proof! There's my proof

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Thu Sep 13 2007 08:11 AM)


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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Hurricane Humberto [Re: allan]
      #78410 - Thu Sep 13 2007 08:54 AM

The problem I see is the LLC heading back into the GOM around day 5. I'm not worried about it restrengthening but whatever is left moving back towards the Texas coast and causing more flooding rain. When Allison hit here in the Houston area back in '01 we didn't see that much rain the first time we saw her...it was when she looped back around from Lufkin and came back at us for the second time...that is when we saw the 30" of rain. That is what I'm kind of curious about with Humberto.

Shawn


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Hurricane Humberto [Re: allan]
      #78411 - Thu Sep 13 2007 09:32 AM

How realistic are some of these models showing it looping around back to the GOM and then back to Tx/Mexico?? Seriously? IF (I know that's a big if) it was to do that, does that mean there's a chance it could regenerate, or would it most likely be an unorganized blob?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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JayBowden
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Humberto [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78412 - Thu Sep 13 2007 09:43 AM

This is a great example that we still have limits to our ability to forecast just what nature will do. In following these posts, storms like this point out the dangers of minimizing a storm as just a TS or Cat 1, etc. It causes people reading they to also minimize the possible effects. "Just a heavy rain event" can be just as catastrophic/deadly as high winds and surge. I just completed a year and a half in the New Orleans EOC and can tell you that it takes over 72 hours to implement the old evac plan and even longer to get out those with mobility challenges... Weigh that against the accuracy of models 3-5 days out ans you can see the problem...

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weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
Re: Hurricane Humberto [Re: Unregistered User]
      #78413 - Thu Sep 13 2007 10:28 AM

Looking at the storm total precipitation graphic, the heaviest rain in southwest Louisiana appears to be south of Interstate 10. Vermilion Parish (southwest of Lafayette) has seen the heaviest rain with rain totals approaching ten inches in some areas. My weather station at home has recorded a storm total precipitation of 1.50 inches as of 9:30 AM Thursday morning. An additional 2.00 inches of rain (possibly more) appears likely across south-central Louisiana and the Lafayette Metro area. As of this post, my sustained winds in Lafayette are at 11 MPH with gusts to 17 MPH, though my instruments are below standard level and I estimate the winds at standard level to be sustained at 15 MPH and gusting in the 20 - 25 MPH range.

Looking at statewide observations, the highest winds are occurring at Chenault Air Park in Lake Charles where winds are south at 26 MPH gusting to 35 MPH. The highest winds are likely in Beauregard Parish (north of Lake Charles) but the reporting station at Beauregard Parish Airport has apparently lost power as it is no longer reporting.


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Chris Bryant
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Loc: NC
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: Hugh]
      #78415 - Thu Sep 13 2007 11:13 AM

From the NHC 11:00 forecast discussion:

BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT
DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS
MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS
DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL
RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR
LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED.

--------------------
--
Chris Bryant
Arden, North Carolina


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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: Chris Bryant]
      #78416 - Thu Sep 13 2007 11:37 AM

Quote:

From the NHC 11:00 forecast discussion:

BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT
DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS
MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS
DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL
RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR
LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED.





Could be due to very warm water and little shear. It is amazing that this thing went from a TD to a Cat. 1 in 14 hours or so. With this thing in radar range you could see it develop and then get that eye wall. We knew if the eye wall closed off that this thing could go to a Hurricane. Thankfully it wasn't out in the middle of the GOM like Opal did in 1995.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: Unregistered User]
      #78418 - Thu Sep 13 2007 11:49 AM

Excuse me for doing this on the board and not through a PM.

If you aren't in agreement with another member's line of thinking.
Please PM them or keep it to yourself. Keep the personal tiffs off of the board.
If you PM them keep it nice and clean.
Warning shot across the bow~danielw


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tekkrite
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 9
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: danielw]
      #78423 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:01 PM

Meanwhile, TD8 is getting sheared like a sheep and fighting to hang on--which it is doing pretty well so far, though. I've been watching since the early 90s (only as an interested amateur), and it seems to me that over the past several years the systems seem to be very tenacious. They hang on longer in tough environments than they used to.

Humble suggestion: Maybe time for a new thread?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: danielw]
      #78424 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:03 PM

As Humberto weakens and heads eastward, I'm worried about NOLA. Are the levees strong enough to hold much water? This storm is like a wall of heavy rain heading towards them.. Flooding will be expected and hopefully the levees will hold the water this time
The season is still going, it's la nina so that means more storms later on. If a storm in what I like to call "Wilma conditions" like Humberto did, it's not going to look good. Btw, was there ever a Humberto in the GOM? Most of the Humbertos i've seen were fish storms.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 355
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: tekkrite]
      #78426 - Thu Sep 13 2007 02:14 PM

Quote:

Meanwhile, TD8 is getting sheared like a sheep and fighting to hang on--which it is doing pretty well so far, though. I've been watching since the early 90s (only as an interested amateur), and it seems to me that over the past several years the systems seem to be very tenacious. They hang on longer in tough environments than they used to.





TD8 IS hanging in there...a lot less symetrical, but nice flare-up of convection early this afternoon just north of the COC. Will be interesting to see how well it survives the next 2 days. Looks like the shear just ahead is relaxing a bit, but not to the north of it. I do NOT like storms in this area. They almost always threaten Florida, although they only seem to actually AFFECT us about 50% of the time. Mets keep us posted on future trends here.

Also, it looks like the models on Humberto are going in opposite directions. GFDL wants a hairpin turn back through the GOM to south Texas, while the BAMM now wants to take it though the deep south to the Atlantic...can't be much farther apart than that. GOM is so warm it could EASILY refire if its center re-emerges from the land....keeping close watch!!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #78427 - Thu Sep 13 2007 03:11 PM

This storm is like a wall of heavy rain heading towards them.. Flooding will be expected and hopefully the levees will hold the water this time "


The levees are not the problem in NO in heavy rain. The levees hold out the Mississippi and Lake Ponchitain. The flooding comes with heavy rain whe the pumps can't handle large amounts, and can't pump it out fast enough. NO should be fine. The test there will be the first storm with a storm surge...thats the culprit...we are still down 15-20 inches in rainfall here in Pcola...this rain is welcome

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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louisianatracker
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 2
Loc: SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: allan]
      #78428 - Thu Sep 13 2007 03:23 PM

Regarding questions about the levees in New Orleans:

We should not have any major problem with Humbertos rainfall. We are experiencing some ongoing bands of rainfall at this time. Winds are fairly mild.
Our biggest need for the levees is to keep storm surge out of the city from the lakes, Mississippi River Gulf Outlet Canal, and marshes. Part of the levee system keeps river flooding and storm surge heading up the river from the gulf at bay. You are correct in your assumption that rainfall can be a problem. Since we have constructed ourselves into a "fishbowl" surrounded by these levees, rainwater has no place to go. We are crisscrossed by numerous canals which run towards Lake Pontchartrain. We have numerous large pumps which expel water into the lakes. As a rule of thumb, these pumps can adequately pump-out about 1-inch of rain for the first hour of rainfall, and about 1/2-inch of rain per hour therafter. Any rainfall in excess of these numbers does create backups in the canals and results in street and house flooding in certain low-lying areas. Pumping capacity has been reduced in two of the canals which have now been sealed at the mouth where they meet the lake. (Canals which breached during Katrina). There is some concern that too much water in the weaker repaired canals could cause some degree of failure if water levels are allowed to get too high in those canals. I do not forsee a problem in this particular storm event, but my canoe is always nearby just in case!


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weather999
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 25
Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #78429 - Thu Sep 13 2007 04:21 PM

While I did think Humberto would strengthen prior to landfall, I didn't think TX/LA would have a 75kt landfall on their hands. It really did look like there was no shear around that storm.. and once the eyewall got sorted out.. a hurricane was born... another oddity of the season.. we now have the most rapidly intensifying storm prior to landfall, and first year of 2 cat 5's landfalling at one time.

As for TD 8, it's getting harder to locate the centre.. still a chance to intensify and reach TS, though.


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JFV
Unregistered




Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: weather999]
      #78430 - Thu Sep 13 2007 04:29 PM

What do you mean its becoming difficult to pinpoint TD8's LLC? Take a look at the current floater visable loop on the NHC website cooncering TD8 and tell wheather thats actually the case or not? I'll look forward to your replied response.

easy, man. what do you want him to do, come back and say 'oh you're so right?' no need to patronize people. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 13 2007 06:23 PM)


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 307
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: weather999]
      #78431 - Thu Sep 13 2007 04:43 PM

RGB is a great loop for locating the LLC- especially when it is partially exposed.
Please excuse the one line post. Actually that was 2 lines.3? Pete and repeat were in a boat.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: craigm]
      #78432 - Thu Sep 13 2007 05:14 PM

What is the location of the Bermuda High? Any time now frontal systems from the East Coast should be strong enough to weaken the High, which could, from what i've read, steer storms towards Fla or they could go out to sea. In my opinion storms that form in the Northeastern Caribbean or Southwest Atlantic (south of the Bahamas) at this time of the year are more prone to strike Fla. I guess storms, like Wilma, in the Western Caribbean could also play a role this time of year as well.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: damejune2]
      #78433 - Thu Sep 13 2007 05:25 PM

Depends on what type of system is underneath it. But this should give you a general idea
where the Bermuda High is located at. It's actually pretty strong for this time of year.
And most of the fronts that having been coming down recently have been weak/moderate.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: Unregistered User]
      #78434 - Thu Sep 13 2007 05:36 PM

As for difficulty locating the LLC, even the NHC is having that problem, so it's no surprise people here are.

From the 5pm discussion:
"CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALLER WEAKER LOW ROTATING ABOUT A MORE DOMINANT...BROAD...CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION WILL BE BASED ON A CENTROID POSITION OF THE TWO CIRCULATION CENTERS."


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