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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 307
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: damejune2]
      #78436 - Thu Sep 13 2007 05:57 PM

Cold Fronts don't steer storms towards Florida. It all depends on the location of the storm the ridge and the front. Wilma being a perfect example.

Storms are always wanting to trend to the right due to the Coriolis effect explained below. Cold fronts (troughs) create weakness in Highs (ridges) allowing storms to escape poleward. Picture mountain ranges upside down with valleys in between them would be a simplistic way of visualizing the atmosphere.

Coriolis Effect:
Coriolis effect is an inertial force described by the 19th-century French engineer-mathematician Gustave-Gaspard Coriolis in 1835. Coriolis showed that, if the ordinary Newtonian laws of motion of bodies are to be used in a rotating frame of reference, an inertial force--acting to the right of the direction of body motion for counterclockwise rotation of the reference frame or to the left for clockwise rotation--must be included in the equations of motion.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie

Edited by craigm (Thu Sep 13 2007 06:09 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
humberto out, 8 out? [Re: craigm]
      #78437 - Thu Sep 13 2007 06:19 PM

when i left things be last night i didn't think humberto had that kind of intensification left to do. proximity to land is usually cited as a reason for a storm not to develop any more, but every that only seems to work when it's mountainous land. that little sucker was dropping about 1mb an hour--would have easily been a cat 3 with another day at sea. models still take some it's essence back over the northern gulf, but i very much doubt it will redevelop. stuff like that is tougher late in the season as the westerlies start harrying things closer to the continent.
tropical depression 8 has been tropical storm ingrid for about a day. i don't think it will survive the shear, so maybe the NHC thinks it doesn't deserve a name. it will be tropical storm 8 in post season analysis, though, after holding down a 2.5 rating for four cycles and having unflagged gale vectors from the satellite overpass. don't see why they don't name it... all the reasons they've given not to have not held water at one time or another, and the tools they usually rely on have all been calling it a storm.
anyhow, TD 8 will probably continue wnw for the next couple of days, and eventually peter out as the shear picks up. if it can manage one good cough of convection over the center for a few hours maybe the NHC will finally call it ingrid... but it is probably a moot point.
globals are still showing pattern-forced pressure falls in the bahamas/florida area this weekend. be wary of anything that starts trying to come up, because the pattern will probably be friendly to it.
the mess behind TD 8 may try to pop something, up in the subtropics. the stuff closer to the ITCZ is having a bit of trouble, but is also worth monitoring at least. collectively this stuff is just in the wait and see, probably nothing mode.
HF 2219z13september


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M.A.
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 100
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: Random Chaos]
      #78438 - Thu Sep 13 2007 06:29 PM

I posed a question on the forecast lounge forum about that "other" low pressure just south of TD#8's dominate COC. I have never seen this before. Any thoughts on whether it is a totally different system or is it a sheared upper level part of TD #8?
There seems to be a nice blow up of convection this evening on TD #8. It looks to be dead center of the COC. Might we see this storm actually start to develop tonight?


Mike


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 815
Loc: hollywood,florida
Re: humberto out, 8 out? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #78439 - Thu Sep 13 2007 08:54 PM

I for one will continue to watch TD 8 for a while.It looks alot better now than it did just a few hours ago.It has done very well with all that shear,it is still alive.Yes it could die,But I have seen TD's like this that hang on turn into bad storms.It is showing life tonight.So I am not ready to write this system off yet.This has already been an odd season.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
Re: humberto out, 8 out? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #78441 - Thu Sep 13 2007 09:11 PM

NRL now says 08L.INGRID

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom.../track_vis/dmsp


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Tropical Storm Ingrid forms east of islands [Re: Hootowl]
      #78442 - Thu Sep 13 2007 09:26 PM

Looking at the current IR/AVN loop, Ingrid may be the shortest lived tropical storm on record, though. I'm not sure it'll make it as a tropical storm until the 11pm advisory (when it would get the official upgrade), as sad as it looks right now.

Edit: Boy, was I wrong. Ingrid has really developed a deep area of convection right over the LLC in the last hour and a half!

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Thu Sep 13 2007 10:24 PM)


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms east of islands [Re: Hugh]
      #78443 - Thu Sep 13 2007 10:16 PM

Strange as it may sound to other weather watchers...my guard continues to be down on TD8 when compared to the remanants of Humberto. When it comes to a focus on the tropics, my attention is still there very much.

Models indicate an eventual turn to the east, southeast, then south back into the Gulf....As referenced in the 5PM NHC Discussion, the models as seen on SFWMD website show the same.
...However, they dismiss possible redevelopment.

There were only a few opportunities for an NHC Forecast Discussions during the life of Humberto, but they ranged from a decoupled storm after landfall (with uppers moving on and a lower left behind) to a a low pressure system moving ESE over Mississippi. Looks like the uppers are departing and the lowers are doing it's thing.

Anyhow, we have a big buckle over the GOMEX in the tradewinds now thanks to the "H" factor. Very noticable in this evenings SHortwave that the low level flow across the entire Gulf is out of the SW instead of out of the ESE. Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

That is very unique and very representative of the impact that Humberto is imparting across the Gulf. For such a small system, the overall envelope grew quite extensive quickly and I am glad for the folks impacted that it made landfall sooner, not later. Even though a hurricane is a hurricane and that is never good. In fact, the banding like features have spread as far east as the Florida Penninsula.

Anyhow, back to the point. I'd imagine a High Presure Ridge would be the actual influence of that afformentioned SE to South motion of the low level remenants in a few days...That should tighten up a pressure gradient to some extent to the north of Humberto's lowpressure center. Likewise, if SW winds remain over the GOMEX for a few days...Between these two factors, it really won't be hard to get the surface energy of Humberto Spinning again off the coast of Mississippi, Alabama or the Florida Panhandle.

If there is appropriate upper level support, and Humberto's lower elements make it to the Gulf again...I would suspect that it is tennacious enough for rebirth in the Gulf late this weekend into Monday. Especially considering that the models show the opportunity of a Gulf reimergance. That might end up being a wierd and strange tale of Humberto Part II in the Gulf (especially strange along the western Gulf), kinda like Dennis in 1999 in the Carolina's and Ivan in the Gulf in 2004.


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms east of islands [Re: dem05]
      #78444 - Thu Sep 13 2007 10:32 PM

We have Ingrid:

WTNT33 KNHC 140227
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST THU SEP 13 2007

...THE NINTH STORM OF THE YEAR FORMS TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...

I am in agreement with dem05, the near term concern is the return of Humberto, something we have to watch very closely.

Bill


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc:
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms east of islands [Re: BillD]
      #78446 - Thu Sep 13 2007 11:02 PM

Does anyone see possible development in the next 72 hours in the western Caribbean as some models suggest?

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms east of islands [Re: BillD]
      #78450 - Fri Sep 14 2007 04:02 AM

Right up to and right after Humberto's landfall I would have been more immediately concerned about recurvature into the GOM, but this is looking a little bit less possible (and never was highly likely) with each passing couple of hours.

Humberto is decoupling quite appreciably, and it continues to look as if he is melding with the front, on way to an eventual exit - probably off the southeast coast somewhere.

I do think it is actually starting to look nearly equally possible that whatever is left of Humberto rekindles a bit over the Gulf Stream. Either a GOM or Gulf Stream rebirth of Humberto.. looks to me like maybe a 25% chance of either of these two scenarios really happening. That might sound like an awful lot, but maybe it's not, as once these kinds of tropical systems take up some firm roots, it can almost take an act of god to dislodge their grips on potential regeneration (Consider Erin and Ivan as two recent examples).

In the nearer term we have Ingrid over the open waters. I suspect that shear will not be as detrimental to Ingrid's prospects as official forecasts and model guidance suggests. Consider that already, for the better part of at least 24 hours prior to being named, Ingrid was being bombarded with considerable shear, and yet, despite all of this, continued to hold on to a fairly well-defined vortex within a generally larger circulation, had entirely believable 35 knot wind vectors on scatterometer passes, and generally scored 2.5 across the board for T numbers throughout. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to conclude that Ingrid may easily be backdated to a tropical storm as much as a full 24 hours prior to being named. And it also doesn't take rocket science to conclude that Ingrid is already another tenacious cyclone. How tenacious? Verdict is certainly still out. If her ability to fend off shear is any indication, and with increasingly warmer and warmer waters up ahead, about the only thing that might really do her in more than anything else would be an untimely run-in with dry air, perhaps.

Also in the near term I believe we may need to start paying at least some attention to the southern Caribbean. It appears that a surface low may be forming. A ship located in this area of disturbed weather, around 11.6N 74W, recently reported sustained winds of 36.9 knots and a pressure of only 29.67. Additionally, I think maybe HF already alluded to this, I would be keeping a watchful eye on the area around Cuba/Florida Straits/either side of Florida this weekend. My own thinking is that some forced pressure falls may come about and work somewhat in tandem with a preexisting surface reflection of the ULL centered roughly about 25N 65W, perhaps even to entrain and work with whatever is left available of x-Humberto in the area.

It's the climatological peak of what has already proven to be an above-average season, so until I see that trend break down, I might think a bit bullishly. We all were exposed to history at one time or another. Remember, "Remember the Alamo"? I'm replacing that with "Remember the Humberto, the Erino, the Felixio, and the Deano" at least until October's over. This year has been one to surprise on the upside.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms east of islands [Re: cieldumort]
      #78451 - Fri Sep 14 2007 05:16 AM

Ingrid will be a slow mover for a fef days. Hard to say what it will do with nothing to pick it up. I do note however that the forcast no longer goes through Herbert's box.

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms east of islands [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #78452 - Fri Sep 14 2007 10:04 AM

The local weather office in Va is talking about the possibility of the trough off the SE coast moving to the coast next Tuesday as a weak subtropical low. Anyone have any thoughts about this? Any chance that is could be joined by Humberto's remants, if they go east, rather than looping back into the Gulf?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms east of islands [Re: Ed in Va]
      #78453 - Fri Sep 14 2007 12:16 PM

Based on the data and sats and radar... looks like Humberto's remnant surface reflection will make back into the GOM, sometime tomorrow near New Orleans area...Mississippi area... Would say the enlongated area of it may be just to the SSW of Jackson, MS. Moving to the SSE... The mid-upper feature is being carried off to the NE along the trough...

Sat

vis of central gulf coast

Surface obs

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 14 2007 02:41 PM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #78454 - Fri Sep 14 2007 01:18 PM

Wow, that's just an awful, awful looking environment for developing TCs out there in the Atlantic..

The environment improves greatly beyond about 108 hours, but that is a long time for a stripped eddy to whirl around without spinning down. This may very well go to remnant low status by D3 here...and be forgotten for 30 hours, only to re-emerge -- probably be designated a new feature if that happens, though.... Somewhere N of PR or nearing Bahamas, to S of Bermuda. Could see this downgraded to TD by tomorrow morning; or if not it would take some unusually tenacious resistence.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms east of islands [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78455 - Fri Sep 14 2007 01:58 PM

I think Humberto's stripped remnant surface low is actually still headed at least a bit farther east, and just now may be entering west-central Alabama as it is, with most of his mid/upper level remnants, including the bulk of the precipitation, well to the east and northeast of that location.
Radar Huntsville, Al

x-Humberto has latched on to the quasi-stationary frontal track, and has been riding it like a hobo on a train. There is an approaching cold front to the north of this, which may be helping nudge him/it back to the south, but my best guess is that it's unlikely to be pushed right over NOLA if that were to happen... already probably too far east for this. And, it appears to me to be equally likely, or perhaps even a bit more likely, to ride the front all the way to the east coast, or southeast like Ga/Fl, and not the GOM.

I suspect, perhaps, something more Humberto-related to watch over the next 48 hours or so is the persistent feeder band, now identified as a trough draped from Humberto's remnant surface low, that extends well into the northwestern GOM. It keeps firing showers and a few thunderstorms off along its entirety.

I guess as a post script on Humberto, I sure wouldn't want to forget that he is still floating around out there, tho. And with so many models having been insisting on bringing him back into the GOM to rekindle at least a little bit, there's certainly more than just our eyeballs and best guesses looking out for this possibility.



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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
H-I storms [Re: cieldumort]
      #78458 - Fri Sep 14 2007 06:16 PM

h-storm is now a decoupled remnant low. hpc is tracking the vortmax up near rome georgia. what i'm watching is the low-level vorticity washing south-southeastward over lower mississippi, due back in the gulf overnight. there's decent low level convergence offshore, and it's probably at least going to maintain a disturbance. it's pie in the sky, and has almost no model support, but there's still a snowball's chance that it will start acting up again over the gulf. i'm betting against, for what it's worth.
i-storm is being talked down by most everybody. it's unclear what will happen with whatever is left of ingrid around the middle of next week. about half of the globals recurve it and send the remnant vorticity northeast to meet up with another deep layer-type low up there. the other half squeeze what is left under the sharp, strong ridge progged for the western atlantic next week and send it rocketing westward. the forecast with it is extremely uncertain... as was reckoned on here by others.. the thing could die and then come back as a westward moving, threat system.
gonna be stuff to worry about closer in. most of the models are developing a coastal inverted trough or perhaps low near the southeast over the next few days. getting a system out of the mess is a possibility, and that could have all kinds of possible outcomes based on exactly where and when such a thing would try to happen. also, euro keeps making a hurricane in the sw caribbean next week and sending it up into the gulf. some of the other globals see trouble in the general area, too. doesn't look like a quiet week, though the players aren't all on the field, and it's a question which ones, if any, will show up.
HF 2216z14september


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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: H-I storms [Re: HanKFranK]
      #78459 - Fri Sep 14 2007 07:33 PM

It looks as though Ingrid is moving away from the possibility of hitting Florida (Miami area) and I am sorta wondering when we will get a hurricane our way...I moved here to Miami from Manchester, NH and when we last got a hurricane, I was too little to remember it so ya..

Wishcasting material removed

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Sep 15 2007 10:26 AM)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: H-I storms [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #78460 - Fri Sep 14 2007 07:43 PM

After going through Wilma, Jeanne & Francis I can live without another storm. Too early to tell where, when and how Ingrid is going; just don't wishcast it on yourself.

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syfr
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 19
Loc: Central NC
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #78461 - Fri Sep 14 2007 07:55 PM

Here in east central NC there's been numerous tornados in the county Im in currently (Johnston). Coming home from dinner we drove around an area of tornado warnings (and obvious tornadic activity) to reach home. At the moment, torrential rain is falling, along with intense lightning. The last tornado warning was just east of us about 30 min ago and we're under the remnants of the balance of that storm (the rotation has now stopped...just LOTS of rain and wind).

They just announced 390 lightning strikes in last 15 min, in this immediate area

Hola Humberto!

Edited by syfr (Fri Sep 14 2007 07:56 PM)


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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: syfr]
      #78462 - Fri Sep 14 2007 08:58 PM

How large are Humberto's bands? This is what I would like to know. Here in Miami we are getting torential rains nonstop which are causing flooding and thunderstorms associated with this activity..I hope we dont get any tornadoes..If that is the case than I say "Humberto stay away"

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


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