Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1st, 2019 and ends on Nov 30th, 2019.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 136 (Michael) , Major: 136 (Michael) Florida - Any: 136 (Michael) Major: 136 (Michael)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | >> (show all)
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4112
Loc: Orlando, FL
Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast
      #78254 - Tue Sep 11 2007 09:13 PM

11:15 PM EDT 13 September Update
A NOAA recon plane on a research mission in TD 8 this evening found 35kt surface winds associated with the cyclone, supporting an upgrade to Tropical Storm Ingrid. Ingrid is expected to weaken back into a tropical depression under strong vertical wind shear over the next few days. Meanwhile, the remnants of Humberto, which made landfall early this morning near High Island, TX, are bringing 5-10" rainfall totals to parts of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Its remnants are expected to move slowly south and eastward over the next day or two, potentially back over the Gulf of Mexico into the weekend. No redevelopment is expected.

1:30 AM EDT 13 September Update
Recon has found a 992mb minimum central pressure in Humberto, but more importantly a very small area of hurricane-force winds at 850mb and at the surface. Thus, Humberto becomes the season's 3rd hurricane just hours before landfall in extreme eastern Texas. A special advisory package from the NHC has all of the particulars. Still, given the very small size of the wind field, rain is the primary threat from Humberto outside of those still in mobile homes after Rita in 2005.

4:50 PM EDT 12 September Update
Recon has found Humberto with pressures of 999mb, and a banding eyewall trying to form. This may wind up being a surprise to those in Houston if it gets itself together. 50MPH winds at the 5PM advisory.

2:35 PM EDT 12 September Update
Recon is finding estimated surface winds around 50-55MPH in Humberto along the Northeastern side. Humberto is a small system and it seems it is consolidating toward the center, keeping the rainfall away from Houston... at the present time. The rain will move closer later tonight.



A 60-65mph storm at landfall is not out of the question, but the primary concern is and still would be rainfall. It is likely to surprise quite a few folks in the area, however. Dry air around the system (entering from the south) should stop it short of very rapid intensification. It may be wise for some folks to prepare for a strong Tropical Storm if they are in and just to the east of the projected landfall locations.

1:53 PM EDT 12 September Update
Tropical Storm Humberto has formed from Tropical Depression #9, still moving slowly northward at 6MPH.

Tropical Storm Warnings are still up. Rain, some wind, and weaker Tornadoes are possible in Texas/Louisiana as it nears.

10:45 AM EDT 12 September Update
TD#8 out in the Caribbean is moving west northwest at 12mph, slower than most systems. It is forecast to stay fairly weak because of shear it is likely to encounter. The current forecast has it still east of the Islands 5 days out, so it would be a good while before it approached here, if at all. Because of the slow movement it is more likely to avoid landfall (more opportunities for it to be picked up), but by no means is it a sure thing. Something to watch over the long term. Guesses on what it'll do, let us know here.

TD#9 in the Gulf is going to be a big rain maker, Tropical Storm Warnings are up for TD#9 from Port O'Connor, TX east to Cameron, LA..

10:00 AM EDT 12 September Update
Double whammy formation. Tropical Depression #8 forms east of the Caribbean from 91L. At 12/12Z the Invest location was 13.1N 44.2W, movement to the west northwest at about 10 knots, pressure 1007mb and winds at 30kts gusting to 40kts. Excellent outflow developing in all quadrants - likely to become the next named storm.

Tropical Depression #9 forms in Gulf of Mexico from 90L. At 12/12Z the Invest location was 27.8N 95.2W. TD is drifting to the west northwest to northwest, pressure also at 1007mb and winds of 25kts gusting to 35kts. TD #9 is not as well organized as TD #8, so additional development, if any, will be a little slower, but still possible given the very slow forward speed. Another round of significant rainfall for the Texas coast.

Advisories for both systems should start at 11AM EDT.

Yet another wave moved off the coast of west Africa last night - located near 11N 21W at 12/12Z. This system has potential for additional development in 3 or 4 days as it moves slowly westward.

8:40 AM EDT 12 September Update
The system slowly moving northward off the Texas coast (90L) is looking better now this morning and may form into a depression today. Recon is scheduled to go out into this system later today. More to come on this system later. It is expected to bring more rain to Southeastern Texas and parts of Lousiana, regardless if it develops or not.

91L east of the Caribbean is looking very good this morning and will also likely form into a depression today. Still too early to tell where it will wind up, however.

Original Update
The wave in the Central Atlantic (east of the Caribbean, also known as 91L) is looking much better tonight and may form into a depression tonight or (more likely) within the next day or so.



This wave is moving mostly west now, model projects having it turning more northwest then back west, nearing the northern Leeward islands. There is plenty of time to watch this system however, as it is a bit south of model projections. Long range is more difficult, but right now all indications are that this one may not be a west mover like Felix and Dean.



Convection is over the low level center, Dvorak T numbers are around 1.5 (which may support a Tropical Depression) and is set to get stronger.


91L Development chances within next 48 hours
Code:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[----------*---------]



The wave in the Gulf (90L) is nearing the Texas coastline, and is a bit too unorganized to really form into much. Likely just more rain for Texas. It has stalled however, off the coast, so it may have a small chance to form into something before landfall.

Houston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Tropical Depression #8 Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of TD#8 - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#8


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float8latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#8 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#8 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#8

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#8
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#8 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Humberto Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Humberto - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Humberto


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float9latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Humberto (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Humberto (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Humberto

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Humberto
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Humberto -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



Edited by Clark (Thu Sep 13 2007 11:27 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #78259 - Tue Sep 11 2007 10:30 PM

As I been predicting, either late tonight or tommorrow morning, I am now convinced that this will be a TD at 5 a.m. tommorrow morning. The reason why i'm holding off till then, is because the circualtion is half exposed. The IR shows one lima bean looking blow up to the west, and a nice banding of clouds to the east.. needs more to go before we can pull the trigger.
5 or 11 a.m. tommorrow, I am confident

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Tue Sep 11 2007 10:43 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #78264 - Tue Sep 11 2007 10:40 PM

91L current isnt closed but its close,,, data being recieved show a open trough but a well defined midlevel circulation. If convection persists into the morning then a chance for a TD will be issued at 11am or 5pm on Weds. Persistant convection around the developing center is the key..and if it shows that..we will know the circulation is well definded at the surface. Usually mid level circulations will lose their convection after 12hrs near the center.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
flnelson
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 3
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: scottsvb]
      #78266 - Tue Sep 11 2007 11:40 PM

In looking at the 00:00Z forcast tracks at:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al912007.png
I see that the models are in tight concensus until the storm reaches 18N when they seem to be evenly split between a more northward and a more westward track.

This seems to coincide with the plots from 18:00Z at:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=91
where the GFDL is making a jaunt to the left.

There's a lot to be learned from these storms in their infancy.

As of 11PM Eastern I can see that there is significant convection developing in the northern and western quadrants of the storm plus some early indications of banding. I would concur that this storm should be a TD no later than 11am Eastern tomorrow.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #78270 - Wed Sep 12 2007 04:45 AM

Oh I'm up late tonight, as I suppose many a tracker is here in Texas right now.

Looks like we have one and a half tropical cyclones on our hands tonight. I'm behind the analysis provided above in regards to 91L, and basically believe that if it was within recon range we would have ourselves an officiated TD on this one by noon today. Might happen just the same, even if NHC does often like to give the features still out in the wide blue yonder the unbenefit of the doubt.

90L, 90L. This one is knock knock knocking up against the Texas shores tonight, and environmental conditions for further development, as has its appearance, have only improved yet more. Numerous AFDs are now strongly hinting that it may easily earn a number before moving inland, as have several of our areas OCMs. I've got it up at a 50% chance in my blog now, and feel this may even be conservative. Just too close to call due to proximity to land... but, 90s forward motion seems to have come to a crawl, if not a near-stall, overnight. Being held back a bit by the front, maybe even getting that little extra necessary synoptic kick from interaction with the front, while wind shear has -really- dropped and upper-level winds have now turned somewhat anti-cyclonic overhead.

Tonight marks the first night that pressures within the sphere of 90L have been notably dropping -while- convection has been notably increasing about the surface trough/low. Surface obs, scatterometer, and area radars strongly suggest the presence of an elongated (NNE-SSW) surface low that is consolidating the closer it gets to the coast. Observed max. sustained winds at elevations under 35 feet are now up to as high as 25+ MPH.

At the very least, barring a sudden weakening of either of these invests (90 & 91) I fully expect we'll see TCFAs up on them today. (At the very least.) It's mid-September during a season that has already proven to be above-average, and heading into its second half with a developing La Nina. This should not be surprising.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
punkyg
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: sanford, florida
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: cieldumort]
      #78273 - Wed Sep 12 2007 08:47 AM

Oh man this has gotten way better organized. it could possibly be a tropical storm for all we know.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg
okay people lets start saying when it will develop.
cause i said on another site it would develop today at 5pm.


i wanna ask yall do you think it has a chance to effect the bahamas.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean. Gulf Low May Form into Depression Today [Re: MikeC]
      #78274 - Wed Sep 12 2007 08:59 AM

This low in the Gulf is already bringing us too much rain. Texas has had way too much rain this summer. 91L looks good this morning.
In fact, both systems look pretty good. Well, whether 90L forms into a depression or not the results are still the same...rain.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: punkyg]
      #78275 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:11 AM

My money is on a depression at 11 am. Regarding the Bahamas, too early to tell. Most long range thinking it will go NW for several days and then more westerly, which would probably take it quite a bit south of there. Moroever, there is a lot of shear forecast by the weekend, which could really affect its development.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Ed in Va]
      #78276 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:27 AM

Looking at the major models, I see 91L going NW, then W right before the Bahamas. What is causing this? Also what is the shear forcast in the area for this weekend?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean. Gulf Low May Form into Depression Today [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78277 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:28 AM

NRL has "08Noname" up on their site now but I'm not sure exactly which one of the systems they are talking about...Gulf or Lesser Ant. sysytem. Looks like the Gulf system, which ironically enough is sitting in the same position that Allison was back in '01, could already be a depression...just from satellite presentation.

Shawn


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
7 Deadly Zins
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Loc: Nashville, TN
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean. Gulf Low May Form into Depression Today [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78280 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:36 AM

Both 90L and 91L are now tropical depressions per the NRL.
91L is tropical depression 8. 90L is depression 9.
Looks like the system in the Atlantic, 08L, is moving due west. Will have to see if this trend continues. Also might be moving a little faster.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JayJ
Unregistered




Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean. Gulf Low May Form into Depression Today [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78281 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:37 AM

Noname 8 and 9 up on the NRL.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #78282 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:39 AM

Here's a good discussion about the future track:

http://crownweather.com/tropdisc.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Ed in Va]
      #78283 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:43 AM

8 is or was 91L
9 is or was 90l


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #78284 - Wed Sep 12 2007 10:19 AM

Interesting...a couple models loop the GOM storm back into the Gulf. Waiting for the NHC track.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #78285 - Wed Sep 12 2007 10:21 AM

Looks like TD9 in the Gulf is really trying to get its act together. Storms are really staring to fire up right around where the center is and it is moving so slowly and wind shear is pretty low so it may have a chance to become a pretty strong tropical storm before it's all said and done. We know how warm the water is rightoff the coast here. The thing that scares me is the slow movement...it means there could be some major flooding problems here...again.

Shawn


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Ed in Va]
      #78286 - Wed Sep 12 2007 10:26 AM

Quote:

Here's a good discussion about the future track:

http://crownweather.com/tropdisc.html




Crown's forecast seems to run contrary to Dr. Jeff Masters blog today.

Dr Jeff Master's Blog

Quote:

The big question concerns the track--there is a good chance that 91L will miss the Lesser Antilles, as the current steering currents favor a more northwesterly track for the storm over the coming days. The system has already moved north of Barbados' latitude, and the southern Lesser Antilles Islands are unlikely to receive a direct hit from 91L. Most of the models indicate a forward speed near 10-15 mph, which would bring 91L to the northern islands Monday. The U.S. East Coast may be at risk from this storm ten or so days from now, but it is far too early to speculate on the chance of this occurring, or what region might be most at risk.





It will be interesting to see what plays out.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: stormchazer]
      #78287 - Wed Sep 12 2007 10:49 AM

Wunderground now has info up on 8 and 9 (scroll down):

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

Check out the climatrology under the tracking map. Most were fish spinners. Only one made it west of FL.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

Edited by Ed in Va (Wed Sep 12 2007 10:52 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4112
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Ed in Va]
      #78288 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:01 AM

TD#8 is moving much slower than most systems out at that longitude, at the rate it's moving it wouldn't be until late next week it could affect anywhere in the US. It'll still be east of the islands on Monday, it seems.

It's going to have a pretty good battle with shear too. Because of all that it's most likely going to be a fish spinner type system, but it'll depend on how conditions are this weekend into next week.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78289 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:07 AM

We are now under a tropical storm warning. Hopefully, Texas won't get too much rain from this system. Hurricane hunters are going to be
investigating the system.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #78290 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:09 AM

From what I'm seeing and hearing here locally it looks like TD9 may actually already be a tropical storm. We will know more once the aircraft gets out there but they may find a lower pressure and higher winds than indicated right now. The statement from the NWS here locally states that TD9 is getting its act together. I'm seeing maybe a 60mph storm as it makes landfall.

Shawn


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78292 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:38 AM

Quote:

From what I'm seeing and hearing here locally it looks like TD9 may actually already be a tropical storm. We will know more once the aircraft gets out there but they may find a lower pressure and higher winds than indicated right now. The statement from the NWS here locally states that TD9 is getting its act together. I'm seeing maybe a 60mph storm as it makes landfall.

Shawn




Yeah, it's probably a 40 mph tropical storm, and they will upgrade it as soon as the RECON verifies that.

I am interested in the N at 6 mph movement. It doesn't seem to be moving at 6 mph but they are the experts so I will defer for the moment. I think we need to give this a few hours to pan out and see what's really going on here.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #78293 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:58 AM

TD 8 is barely a TD. Its a elongated center with NO definable SE winds. It does have a well defined mid-level circulation though. I dont think this will get much better organized until it gets north of 15 and west of 60 if it survives.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #78294 - Wed Sep 12 2007 12:04 PM

It looks like the recon mission into TD9 has been called off early, for whatever reason. It is well within radar range, though, so they can track the winds that way if another plane is unable to get into the system before landfall. So far, the max winds at radar beam height have been about 50 kts from the radial veloicty data in a few spots east of the center. If those wind speeds persist, that may be enough to bump it to TS status in the absence of other evidence.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
7 Deadly Zins
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Loc: Nashville, TN
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #78295 - Wed Sep 12 2007 12:05 PM

Recon never made it to TD 8. Mechanical problems most likely forced them to turn around and go back.
Several storms of the past have formed in the Western Gulf and intensified to the cat 1 level and higher, most recently Claudette of 2003. The Galveston area was hit by Cindy in 1963, Debra in 1959, and an un-named storm in 1943, which was at least a cat 2. All of which formed in the Western Gulf.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: 7 Deadly Zins]
      #78297 - Wed Sep 12 2007 12:14 PM

Quote:

Recon never made it to TD 8. Mechanical problems most likely forced them to turn around and go back.



Would you please provide the link which states Recon has mechanical problems?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78298 - Wed Sep 12 2007 12:27 PM

Well, I'm embarrassed to say that this thing snuck up on me.... I haven't been watching the site (or any other weather for that matter)....

This is uncannily like the TS Allison situation in 2001, especially considering that the models are currently keeping TD9 around SE Texas for awhile (of course, these are early runs and likely to change).

I was tending to agree with Shawn and Beaumont that TD9 was already a TS in all but name, but the buoy near Freeport, TX (42019) is showing a windspeed of 21.4kts as of 10:50AM -- so not quite TS yet. (This is near the reported center of TD9.) But note that the pressure is rising at this location, so the storm is likely moving away from the buoy, and may not be the best indicator of any expected strenghtening.

--------------------
Allison


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Allison]
      #78299 - Wed Sep 12 2007 12:42 PM Attachment (342 downloads)

checking on the AF recon... there about over New Orleans heading back in... there appeared to be one pass and a loop back.... At 15:40:00Z (last observation), the observation was 54 miles (87 km) to the SSE (153°) from Lafayette, LA.
The Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF) is in the SE bahama's.... on a trainning mission**
Based on the data i have seen, i would think that TD 9 is a tropical storm... but just barley

Good news... looks like back-up recon is airborne... leaving biloxi right now AF306 just took off
**AF 306 At 16:42:30Z (last observation), the observation was 9 miles (15 km) to the E (82°) from Gulfport, MS. The mission is Tropical Depression: Number 9 (in the North Atlantic basin). **



--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Sep 12 2007 12:56 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Allison]
      #78300 - Wed Sep 12 2007 12:54 PM

Yes, concern with TD 9 is definitely rain. Recon is on its way out there again?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
TD 8 [Re: MikeC]
      #78302 - Wed Sep 12 2007 01:11 PM

Quote:

TD#8 is moving much slower than most systems out at that longitude, at the rate it's moving it wouldn't be until late next week it could affect anywhere in the US. It'll still be east of the islands on Monday, it seems.

It's going to have a pretty good battle with shear too. Because of all that it's most likely going to be a fish spinner type system, but it'll depend on how conditions are this weekend into next week.






One of the GFDL runs from yesterday had 91L down to 2 knots forward speed at one point in the next 126 hours.
It's still doing the same slow down. 91L/ TD 8 is going to wear on some nerves during the next 10 days.
42hour forecast 13.5N 47.1W 260./ 3.3 (WSW at 3.3knots)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78303 - Wed Sep 12 2007 01:14 PM

Rainfall is already over 6" in some of coastal Jefferson County, TX. I'm interested to see if the system is moving N @ 6mph (+/-350 on the 10am advisory). Additional time over water, though not necessarily allowing for any marked strengthening, could allow for some piling up rainfall rates in the Golden Triangle (Orange, Beaumont, Port Arthur) area and into Lake Charles. There's a giant swath of moisture on the eastern side of the system which could mean close to a foot in some sections of coastal SW LA (talking Cameron, Vermillion and Iberia Parishes). Those areas and coastal SE Texas have hurricane local statements up on the Lake Charles NWS Homepage.

My call is for a +/- 50mph Tropical Storm to landfall east of High Island, Texas. What happens after that is anyone's guess. Some possibilities include splitting of the upper and lower cirulations with the upper support heading off NE with the front and lower moisture backing off SW with the trough split to a slow moving system heading up toward northern Mississippi with lots of Gulf moisture out front of it.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Steve]
      #78304 - Wed Sep 12 2007 01:30 PM

Steve... Don't forget the Tornadoes.
You are in Lockport and in the NE Quadrant. That location is known for tornadoes- along with some other towns in that area. Must be the topography.

The east side of the storm has moisture extending south beyond the latitude of the Tx MX Border as Steve said.
A looping track would mean lots of water in the canals and bayous over a 3-5 day period.

Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 12 2007 01:36 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #78305 - Wed Sep 12 2007 01:45 PM

Tropical Storm Humberto has formed.. I am bumping my prediction from 50-55 winds at landfall to 60-65 mph!! it strengthens from 35-45 mph. in half of an advisory so it may get to 55 mph. at 5 p.m. not sure.. but if the trend continues.. 55 mph by 5 p.m.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: allan]
      #78306 - Wed Sep 12 2007 01:58 PM

The upgrade to Humberto may seem a bit rapid, but all should keep in mind that Humberto was really likely a Storm before they issued the first advisory. (Per the 11AM TD 9 Discussion). It would appear that Humberto had become a depression sometime near or just either side of daybreak, in all actuality.

While there is likely a real chance Humberto does strengthen into a significant wind event, as well as rain event, for Texas and/or Louisiana, given its slow movement and proximity to already very soaked land, the single greatest impact from Humberto is likely to be more flooding. Widespread flooding, and a significant possibility of locally catastrophic flooding, is the theme here. This is our lot out here in Texas 2007.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: cieldumort]
      #78307 - Wed Sep 12 2007 02:02 PM

45mph is a bit generous on the windspeed.....I would think 40mph is about right with the pressure. Allan it wont be no 55mph storm at 5pm and probably wont get higher due to proximaty to land. Landfall should be tonight...It may get up to 50mph this evening. Pressures would have to drop to below 1000mb for any increase in wind speed over 50mph. Its not out of the question though.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: scottsvb]
      #78308 - Wed Sep 12 2007 02:29 PM

SFMR on the current recon mission has already found 58kt SFC winds in squalls on what appears to be the east side of the center. Whether or not the 48kt and 58kt winds are representative of the entire circulation, I'll leave that for NHC to decide. Despite that, Humberto is a rather small system that seems to be coming together at a decent clip as it approaches the coast today. A 60-65mph storm at landfall is not out of the question, but the primary concern is and still would be rainfall.

Edit: extrap SLP (from 850mb) is 1002mb. More tropical storm force winds are being found, though not at the 58kt level of before.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)

Edited by Clark (Wed Sep 12 2007 02:37 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Clark]
      #78309 - Wed Sep 12 2007 03:15 PM

In addition to the on-board SFMR data, if one takes the moment or two to carefully review the past few hours of radar and satellite loops, particularly the JSL & FT enhancements, it is clear that Humberto is in the process of trying to form and close off an eye. I concur that we may have a hurricane before landfall.

As has been proven over and over this season, a tropical cyclone's minimum central pressure is not at all an absolute guide to the surface wind speed it is producing. It is entirely possible, at this rate maybe even probable this season, that we can see a Hurricane Humberto declared with pressures even as "high" as just under 1000mb.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Clark]
      #78310 - Wed Sep 12 2007 03:16 PM

Pressure is down to 1001mb on latest recon...but winds havnt picked up yet. They still might bring this to 50mph at 5pm with the pressure but with landfall tonight...it be interesting if the pressure drops alittle more. Its true that pressures dont exactly coordinate to winds speeds but Humberto will not be a hurricane with pressures of 1000mb maybe 994 or less.

Edited by scottsvb (Wed Sep 12 2007 03:19 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 441
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Clark]
      #78311 - Wed Sep 12 2007 03:19 PM

Vortex data message from ~2:25 was extrapolated to 1001. I'd guess the system is moving at an agonizingly slow pace. It's still about 70 miles south of the coast and going to take a while to come ashore. About the only good news? I didn't form 100 miles further south, so it shouldn't have time to really ramp up. (of course everything I've ever thought of a storm has been exactly wrong this year so, several grains of salt with anything I say

TD 8 is not very impressive, I'm sure it will be more impressive later, but I'm not convinced it will survive at this point.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2019.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Bloodstar]
      #78312 - Wed Sep 12 2007 03:26 PM

As I stated earlier, a landfall with 60 - 65 mph. is what I am looking for.. it may finally slow up or it could just keep on going till it hits land.. I wouldn't be surprised if this ramped up into a 70-75 mph. storm. Not wishcasting anything, just going by the trend I am seeing. I have a feeling just in case and if the winds are over 55 mph at the next advisory as I also stated earlier, hurricane watches may be needed.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Wed Sep 12 2007 03:26 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: scottsvb]
      #78313 - Wed Sep 12 2007 03:27 PM

Quote:

I would think 40mph is about right with the pressure.
Allan it wont be no 55mph storm at 5pm and probably wont get higher due to proximaty to land.




You are correct - it won't be 55 at 5pm because it is that speed much sooner according to the most current Recon findings at this writing.

And just like Clark wrote with his SFMR data; Allan being right on with his scientific observations, and with the pressure dropping, we are looking at a compact storm which is strengthening.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: ltpat228]
      #78314 - Wed Sep 12 2007 03:33 PM

SFWMD put Herbert's box up with TD 8; yikes!?!


http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_08.gif


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #78315 - Wed Sep 12 2007 03:40 PM

Quote:

SFWMD put Herbert's box up with TD 8; yikes!?!


http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_08.gif




Nothing to worry about from that image; they've been putting it up for all three of the deep Atlantic storms this year.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Clark]
      #78316 - Wed Sep 12 2007 03:49 PM


Nothing to worry about from that image; they've been putting it up for all three of the deep Atlantic storms this year.






I'm only worried if TD8 goes through it.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: ltpat228]
      #78317 - Wed Sep 12 2007 03:51 PM

I think the biggest concern with Humberto is the amount of rain Texas might get from the storm. Local met says landfall should
be somewhere around Galveston Bay.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean, Tropical Depression 9 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78318 - Wed Sep 12 2007 03:57 PM Attachment (315 downloads)

recon is about to turn north and head back towards the center...
I'm working on a KML for HDOB... running into a few little errors... but may have a beta version soon.

Attached is the flight path of current recon.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: danielw]
      #78319 - Wed Sep 12 2007 04:05 PM

Quote:

Steve... Don't forget the Tornadoes.
You are in Lockport and in the NE Quadrant. That location is known for tornadoes- along with some other towns in that area. Must be the topography.

The east side of the storm has moisture extending south beyond the latitude of the Tx MX Border as Steve said.
A looping track would mean lots of water in the canals and bayous over a 3-5 day period.




Like danielw pointed out.. i think small weak tornadoes will be of concern.. especially east of where the center comes ashore... in the feeder band thats south of Houston offshore

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78320 - Wed Sep 12 2007 04:21 PM

recon is passing through center again right now.... just glanced over some level II radar data... a few cells just to the east of Galvaston show weak rotation in them... heading to the NW - West.. Keep an eye to local tv news or NOAA wx radio... for possible watches and warnings

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 441
Loc: Georgia Tech
Humberto [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78321 - Wed Sep 12 2007 04:43 PM

Well, it certainly is trying to get together, 999mb with a banding eyewall trying to form noted in the latest recon.

I doubt it'll get to Hurricane force, but it's trying really hard to get organized and going. (being a small storm does help, but even so it should run out of time)

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2019.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78322 - Wed Sep 12 2007 04:43 PM

Recon fixed it on that pass with a central pressure of 999mb and confirmed what we're seeing on Houston/Galveston radar -- banding eyewall trying to form. The winds still aren't all that strong overall, but the structure is certainly there.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Clark]
      #78324 - Wed Sep 12 2007 05:01 PM

So, how much time does he have left before landfall and how much rain could we see here close to the TX/La border? We should get some of the
outer rain bands. We are getting rain now. Good thing he is so
close to land or we might have a stronger system coming in near Galveston Bay.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Watching Wave East of the Caribbean [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78325 - Wed Sep 12 2007 05:10 PM

I was 5 mph off but it deffinatly sounds a bit conservative.. I still call for a 60-65 mph. landfall sometime tonight around just east of Galveston. . At some points the radar look of it has fooled me into thinking it was already at 60 mph, that's how impressive the radar is right now.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Wed Sep 12 2007 05:48 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Humberto [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78326 - Wed Sep 12 2007 05:19 PM

Beaumont and others in the Areas of SW La and SE TX... especially those South of Interstate 10.

While Humberto is:
Close to shore- 50 miles south of Galveston
Has maximum winds of 50 mph

The storm is moving at 7 mph. So that would give a current minimum of 8 hours ...for the northern half of the storm to make landfall!

You are looking at 12 hours minumum of rainfall at varible rates.


Nightfall will be arriving in about 4 hours.
The system has intensified from nothing at all 24 hours ago to it's present 50 mph Tropical Storm status.
The pressure is still dropping-bad sign

See the links below for local NWS Hurricane Local Statements from TX and LA.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls4.shtml

If you live or know someone that lives in an area that has flash flooded or flooded before.
Please make plans now-before dark, to evacuate your home or work if Local NWS and Emergency Management Officials issue orders to do so


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Humberto [Re: danielw]
      #78327 - Wed Sep 12 2007 05:32 PM

Humberto is looking good on all views. Radar is showing the convection continuing to wrap. Dvorak IR view looks to me somewhere between 3.5 and 4.5 with the Ramdis Digital Dvorak reading about 4.5. Need to wait 3 hours to get the official SSD update of the Dvorak reading. The last few visible satellite images showed what look to be some high towers forming near the core of the storm, but they aren't showing up on IR yet.

My personal feeling is that this is going to continue to strengthen all the way until landfall. Since it is so close to shore and moving slowly, as has been stated, significant rain is the biggest threat.

Edit: Here is Humberto about 20 minutes before Recon passed through: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realt...5170000.1km.jpg

--RC
Hobbiest (I'm not a pro).

Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Sep 12 2007 05:43 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
humberto and friends [Re: Random Chaos]
      #78329 - Wed Sep 12 2007 06:33 PM

that danged 90L did nothing but persist for the better part of four days before developing. now it's coming up fast--pressure has fallen around 10mb since last night, and it still has a few hours before coming in. should landfall in galveston county tx, somewhere on the bolivar peninsula, barring any early northeastward turn. the inner core is fairly small.. should wobble a good bit as it comes in with not-so-forceful steering and an increasingly asymmetric windfield.. might actually jerk back left closer to the houston metro area due to this.
coastal effects, aside from substantial rainfall, shouldn't be the big story with this little guy. the south central part of the u.s was inundated most of the summer with above normal rainfall. humberto isn't going into one of the worst possible places, but it isn't going into a particularly good one either. lousiana and missisippi look to pile on some decent rainfall from this one.
dependent on how vertically stacked the weakening system stays inland, the building ridge of high pressure might actually push whatever is left back offshore. i don't expect the weather pattern would be particularly friendly for redevelopment were this to happen, but that sort of thing is worth paying attention to. whatever does track back offshore after the oncoming shortwave shears most of the system away would likely turn westward this weekend, if it remains.
91L became TD8, and i wonder why the NHC chose this numbering scheme. both systems developed simulataneously, and i would have bet that what is now humberto would become a storm first. why the NHC set it up so that 9 became humberto and 8 will become ingrid beats me.
td8 is probably ingrid already. NHC's philosophy on keeping it a depression at 5 baffles me. it is obviously getting easterly shear, and the cloud pattern is running at 2.5, which usually makes it a tropical storm. my logic would go that sheared systems are usually stronger than Dvorak estimates, so it is more likely a tropical storm than not.. but NHC sees uncertainty in the location of its center. yeah, i do see that the vortex is elongated on visibles, so that line of logic might figure. still strikes me as odd that they waited as long to classify it, and are waiting to upgrade it still.
anyhow, ridiculous arguments aside... TD8/future ingrid will probably be one of those systems that menaces the east coast, if it doesn't find some way to kill itself. ridging is forecast to stay more or less locked in the western atlantic through next week, which would act to accelerate the system westward past the five day window. the big caveats will be whatever is behind ingrid, and whatever that upper trough forecast to start gnawing at the storm over the weekend will do. we had what was gabrielle poised to swing back on the east coast under strong ridging, but an upper low swooped onto it and squashed it long enough that it never had time to organize as it started its run. by this weekend we'll have a better idea whether ingrid is something that will be a threat near the end of next week.
wave back near 35-40w has decent definition and spotty convection... will play into ingrid's future if it goes up. wave passing the cv islands is further south and well-defined, and may also be a player.
one last thing is the pattern-induced pressure falls near the bahamas late this week. i'd watch there, even though it seems like nothing of consequence should be there.
blah, that was a pile. i'll leave it to y'all to decide what kind of pile it is.
HF 2233z12september


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Todd
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 30
Loc: Havelock, NC(34.89n76.92w)
Re: humberto and friends [Re: HanKFranK]
      #78334 - Wed Sep 12 2007 06:55 PM

Quote:

why the NHC set it up so that 9 became humberto and 8 will become ingrid beats me.
td8 is probably ingrid already.
HF 2233z12september




Just an observation ...reading my home insurance... NAMED STORM ... decides/tiggers what category it falls into as far as wether to pay or not. Believe me when I say it's not some master plot, the insurance companies don't run NOAA... just has a lot of bearing on insurance matters.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: humberto and friends [Re: Todd]
      #78335 - Wed Sep 12 2007 07:01 PM

Recon just returned a dropsonde in the eye of 998mb. There was 7kt winds, so it might not have been dead center.

Edit - vortex message in:

292
URNT12 KNHC 122247
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092007
A. 12/22:34:40Z
B. 28 deg 41 min N
094 deg 50 min W
C. 850 mb 1413 m
D. 53 kt
E. 026 deg 13 nm
F. 122 deg 041 kt
G. 027 deg 014 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 15 C/ 1532 m
J. 20 C/ 1537 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0209A CYCLONE OB 23
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 20:47:50 Z
GOOD RADAR BANDING



Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Sep 12 2007 07:05 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: humberto and friends [Re: Random Chaos]
      #78337 - Wed Sep 12 2007 07:33 PM

I hate to say it, but, based upon the current radar presentation, and the continual drop in pressure, now to 998, with still as much as 8 hours over water... the possibility of Humberto reaching Cat 1 intensity - a casual, almost joking matter a mear 12 hours ago - is becoming more and more likely. I still think Humberto will miss the mark, just barely (landfalling in the 65-70 mph range), but I would not be shocked if they upgraded Humberto in the post-storm analysis. Someone else mentioned insurance - I'm sure there are probably many people with policies that provide different coverage for depressions and named storms, and even different coverage for named storms and hurricanes. I know this was a bit of a gripe I had two seasons ago, when the NHC upgraded Katrina just as it made its initial landfall along the Atlantic coast of Florida. Obviously the NHC has to go with what their data is telling them, but at that time, I felt like Katrina had winds of 75mph before the NHC made the call. That tidbit got justifiably forgotten in the devastation that came days later.

With Humberto, I suspect things may materialize in a similar fashion, in that the storm may reach minimal hurricane intensity just prior to landfall. Hopefully it doesn't stall out.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: humberto and friends [Re: Hugh]
      #78339 - Wed Sep 12 2007 07:40 PM

Well, they put out a new vortex recon with outbound data, hitting 51kt surface winds.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: humberto and friends [Re: Random Chaos]
      #78340 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:03 PM

Well, it looks like we are going to dodge a huge bullit here in the Houston area. Looks like the center of Humberto is going to make landfall to the east of us and take most of the rain with it. Looks more like the Beaumont area is the place where people need to be concerned. Good luck to you all.

Shawn


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
anomaly18
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 9
Loc: Galveston, TX
Re: humberto and friends [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78341 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:11 PM

If it continues toward beaumont/ pt. arthur, it may have enough time over water to hit cat 1.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: humberto and friends [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78342 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:15 PM

Steady rain here. Just started about an hour ago. Rained this morning but then quit. Local met said we could get up to 10 inches of rain in
some areas. Hopefully not. Tropical storms in Texas, if they hang around long enough, can cause a lot of flooding. I agree with you,
Hank Frank, why didn't they call this TD 8? It sure looked like a depression early this morning and it sure
looked like it was developing. Oh well. Good thing Humberto will run out
of ocean. Humberto should make landfall east of Galveston.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: humberto and friends [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78343 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:17 PM

Boy, watching radar Humberto seems to be moving ENE possibly, almost looks to be paralleling to coastline of Texas. Sure could be bad if it got another 6 hours or so over water.

P.S. Man what a presentation on radar, looks like a hurricane to me!

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: humberto and friends [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #78344 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:25 PM

Quote:

Boy, watching radar Humberto seems to be moving ENE possibly, almost looks to be paralleling to coastline of Texas. Sure could be bad if it got another 6 hours or so over water.

P.S. Man what a presentation on radar, looks like a hurricane to me!




Hmm... haven't watched too much radar... but it appears that there is two eyewalls... the inner one is open to the SW side.... say about 6-10 miles in diameter... second one 12-16 miles in diameter... couple of good spinner storms in the outer feeder bands to the NE of center

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
anomaly18
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 9
Loc: Galveston, TX
Re: humberto and friends [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #78345 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:26 PM

Radar shows it moving more easterly. This may get interesting.

Edited by anomaly18 (Wed Sep 12 2007 09:27 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #78346 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:28 PM

A bit of the battle of environmental conditions vs. duration over warm ocean, tonight.

Humberto is taking in some dry, inland, stabilizing air from its northwest quadrant tonight. Houston, while in the sphere of circulation, is virtually completely free of rain or wind, as a result.

On the other hand, Humberto has clearly had a decent ramp up throughout the morning and afternoon, and I would almost bet more than a wooden nickel that he is pulling more to the right already than guidance would suggest should be happening. If verified, this could indicate a greater length of time over warm water, a further separation between Humberto's coc and land, and perhaps a better chance to get away from the dry air so easily getting entrained tonight. If verified, this would also mean that Humberto could be out over waters long enough to allow for some nocturnal enhancement.

Because of this I would not yet write off any chances for further strengthening leading up to landfall, but just as quickly also suggest that it is probably equally possible Humberto has already peaked out, and is now doing too much battle with the dry air he has ingested, and is still being pinched a bit by.

TWC has Mike Seidel reporting live down in Crystal Beach (just NE of Galveston). Sounds like they've already run into a good bit of freshwater flooding, and have had to change their broadcast location.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: cieldumort]
      #78347 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:43 PM

Ya know, by looking at the radar.. this is one impressive 50 mph Tropical Storm LOL. Humberto looks great for TS, at the most, it should stay a TS through landfall, a very strong one at that. I do see a bit of an easterly jog.. could we say what happened with Charley (2004) may happen with Humberto? The situation is similiar weather wise, the cold front could be a bit stronger, just like I predicted and may already be pushing Humberto east.. means more water rocking for it. We'll see what happens, just going by current conditions.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Wed Sep 12 2007 09:47 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Unregistered User]
      #78349 - Wed Sep 12 2007 09:57 PM

Quote:

its a eye forming while moving NE this site never changes




I don't think we have quite an eye yet,... the last few level II images... show still open on the south side... which there appears to be some dry air intaking... the center is only about 20 miles off the coast

**man, it helps to see things with 3-D program of level II radar, esp. in VCP 121 mode ... www.grlevelx.com

Level III (like on weather.gov ridge sites)
http://www.alabamaweather.org/radar/floater.php

Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Sep 12 2007 09:58 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78350 - Wed Sep 12 2007 10:13 PM

Quote:

Quote:

its a eye forming while moving NE this site never changes




I don't think we have quite an eye yet,... the last few level II images... show still open on the south side... which there appears to be some dry air intaking... the center is only about 20 miles off the coast

**man, it helps to see things with 3-D program of level II radar, esp. in VCP 121 mode ... www.grlevelx.com

Level III (like on weather.gov ridge sites)
http://www.alabamaweather.org/radar/floater.php






Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Hurricane29]
      #78352 - Wed Sep 12 2007 10:40 PM

Doppler Velocities are peaking out now... as part of the eyewall is getting closer to beach... at about 2,300ft... winds at or around 72-77mph... also notice that the northern eyewall, the top of a few areas of the storm are up to about 50k feet.... (venting pretty good)

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Sep 12 2007 10:45 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #78353 - Wed Sep 12 2007 10:43 PM

as of 11 p.m. Humberto has gained up to a strong TS with winds of 65 mph.. This was my landfall prediction in which I now bump up to 70 mph at landfall. Humberto had an eye 2 hours ago, but dry air has opened it.. maybe it could fill in again. We'll see what Humberto does tonight as it continues to strengthen at a good pace.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: allan]
      #78354 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:00 PM

Landfall looks to be a little further east also, closer to the upper Texas coast.
Pressure down to 995 mb.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78355 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:15 PM

Well Humberto went right of its general forecasted path and that has given it about 6 hrs of more time over the water increasing the strength up. In general I and the NHC didnt expect this to get much over 50mph but a more NE heading has kept it over water longer. The winds are 65mph about 1000 ft above the surface...and at the surface the strongest recorded over water was 47mph as of 932pm central. Still we go with what the NHC says and they are using the winds 1000ft up expecting them to come down more towards the surface of 100ft.

Unless Humberto stalls out for a few hours or goes more 55-75dg over the next few hours...I dont expect more then a 5mph jump up. A hurricane is not out of the question as all the forecasts so far expected this to move more N inland just west of Galavaston.. but its going east of there. Notice also the western side of the system is bringing in dry air off the landmass. All data shows winds on the western side of this around 35-40kt. In general this right now is still a 50mph just inland from landfall but main thing is Flooding....and also Tornados and Power Outages...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #78356 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:18 PM

In the 11PM Discussion there is to be found a potentially critical new piece of information
regarding the official forecast thinking tonight.

BASED ON RADAR FIXES THE CURRENT MOTION...030/05 IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. (We have already concluded as much)
HUMBERTO IS MOVING AROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER TEXAS SHOULD CAUSE A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. (Here it is) BEYOND THAT TIME...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
TROUGH COULD BYPASS HUMBERTO...OR ITS REMNANTS. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AFTER
48 HOURS.


As per some models, Humberto may attempt to loop back around into or back nearly into the GOM. Of course, if this starts to verify, would have huge implications for potential widespread flooding and/or potential regeneration/other strike possibilities.

Something to keep our eyes on, to be sure.

It's worth noting that these current 65MPH max. sustained winds remain in a fairly small sliver of the storm. Nonetheless, if you are in this band, currently still offshore, it's going to basically feel like a hurricane, regardless of whether or not Humberto gets the next bump.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 355
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: cieldumort]
      #78357 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:27 PM

Anyone think there is anything to the GFDL and one of the BAMM models calling for Humberto to curve around clockwise and back to the SE later on (BAMM brings it BACK out to the GOM through the Panhandle....that looks really wierd and I can't help but think they are the WAY outliers on this storm...any thoughts??

EDIT: sorry Cieldumort....didn't see your reference to these model trend...keep an eye on it for me, will ya. Got a BASSmasters tournament to take my girls to this weekend and they are really looking forward to it

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3

Edited by Lamar-Plant City (Wed Sep 12 2007 11:29 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #78358 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:35 PM

The GFDL and BAMM projections - particularly the BAMM - are just too horrific to think about. Nonetheless, the fact that the NHC thinks enough of the model outputs to fairly significantly change the forecast (stalling out much closer to the coast)... says alot. They should not just be thrown out as outliers. Time will tell, but I think the forecast is still a bit too far left.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #78359 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:41 PM

Humberto is very compact and we are not expecting as much rain as originally thought. Maybe a good soaking. Winds are picking up along
the coast at this time (around High Island and Crystal Beach). Storm should pass through here sometime early morning.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Hugh]
      #78360 - Wed Sep 12 2007 11:55 PM

I just checked the latest run of the GFDL against the current Advisory.
GFDL Forecast:
FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

00 28.3 95.1 355./ 5.0
06 28.6 95.2 342./ 3.1
12 29.2 95.3 352./ 6.0
18 30.0 94.8 030./ 9.1

Current Advisory:
29.0N/ 94.6W ...BASED ON RADAR FIXES THE CURRENT MOTION...030/05

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST OR ABOUT 25
MILES... 40 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 45
MILES... 70 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.

Humberto at 10PM CDT was 0.2 degree east of the 18 hour forecast position and 0.2 degree south of the 12 hour position.

Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 13 2007 12:00 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78361 - Thu Sep 13 2007 12:03 AM

looks like the south side of the center has a lot of dry air now... but am seeing higer velocities.. upwards of 85mph at 2,500ft..... Just amazing/pretty cool to see the west side of the rain shield of the storm is not moving that much more west over TX...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78362 - Thu Sep 13 2007 12:24 AM

looks like recon (AF 306... same plane from this afternoon) is halfway there again...
At 04:07:00Z (last observation), the observation was 34 miles (54 km) to the SSE (154°) from Lafayette, LA.

Just in time too... i think landfall could be within the next 2-4hrs. Good chance to see how doppler radar and GPS dropsondes data come out with the winds.. are they seeing the same general thing?.... will know in a little bit!!! I think they may bump the winds up just a hair at the 2pm.

Northern part of the eyewall/band near center is starting to brush the coast NE of Galveston. 0420z

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 13 2007 12:27 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78363 - Thu Sep 13 2007 12:31 AM

Folks, I think we have a hurricane. An eye is clearly visible on Houston Radar. And if it's not yet it's extremley close.
The storm doesn't seem to be moving much at all. Humberto kinda just popped up outta nowhere. I think that's kinda the
theme for the season.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto [Re: charlottefl]
      #78364 - Thu Sep 13 2007 12:47 AM

We should know something shortly.
RECON is about 45nm to the ENE of the 10PM CDT center estimate.

Tropical Storm force winds,greater than 39 knots at 5000ft, extend out to 60 nm NE of the Center.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: charlottefl]
      #78365 - Thu Sep 13 2007 12:50 AM

Quote:

Folks, I think we have a hurricane. An eye is clearly visible on Houston Radar. And if it's not yet it's extremley close.
The storm doesn't seem to be moving much at all. Humberto kinda just popped up outta nowhere. I think that's kinda the
theme for the season.




Well we have an open eye to the south of center of the low... but were about to confirm this with recon which is not that far off... At 04:37:00Z (last observation), the observation was 50 miles (80 km) to the SSE (166°) from Beaumont, TX. Something kinda strange... parts of the HDOB data seems missing/messed up... but there still tracking inward.... data started to mess up after they flew through first feedband near TX/LA at 6,000ft.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Humberto Upgrade??? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78366 - Thu Sep 13 2007 12:54 AM

176077 079
That's wind from 176degrees at 77knots at 5000ft.
Peak average of 79knots.
That might just upgrade Humberto!
Distance was 22 nm from the 10 PM CDT Center.

Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 13 2007 12:55 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78367 - Thu Sep 13 2007 12:56 AM

also noticing that the west side of the TS is getting eroded with Dry air... rain shield only goes about 25 miles to the NW from center... keeps getting closer and closer to center... Dry air is really working its way toward... this system seems to be getting smaller and smaller....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Humberto Upgrade??? [Re: danielw]
      #78368 - Thu Sep 13 2007 12:58 AM

Quote:

176077 079
That's wind from 176degrees at 77knots at 5000ft.
Peak average of 79knots.
That might just upgrade Humberto!
Distance was 22 nm from the 10 PM CDT Center.





Yep... seeing the same thing... they flew in on the NE side.. got to the south part of whats left of the center and turned and headed towards galveston... at 04:44:30Z at 29.23N 94.33W flt. level -30 sec wind avg. From 176° at 77 knots (From the S at ~ 88.5 mph). opps there at (~ 4,859 feet)

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 13 2007 01:03 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Humberto Upgrade??? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78369 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:04 AM

Humberto is trying desperately to close the eye on the S and W side. It keeps going from more closed to less (back and forth) for the past several hours.
I do believe though that with the open eye and recon findings this will be upgraded at 2AM. The real question becomes how much more can Humberto
strengthen before landfall?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Humberto Upgrade??? [Re: charlottefl]
      #78370 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:12 AM

Quote:

Humberto is trying desperately to close the eye on the S and W side. It keeps going from more closed to less (back and forth) for the past several hours.
I do believe though that with the open eye and recon findings this will be upgraded at 2AM. The real question becomes how much more can Humberto
strengthen before landfall?





just watching the level II data and surface data from TX... i think Humberto has probaly reached its max... i think landfall near High Island, TX.. in less than 3 hrs... and i do think we will see weakening soon... just look.. from about 12 o'clock to about 7 o'clock on the system, clockwise... (north to east to south, around the storm) it looks alright... but then you look on the west side of the system... it looks bad.. Dry air winning out it looks to me...right now... Heck, i think they call it Galveston bay, between Houston and Galveston... Half of it is not even raining in no more...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 13 2007 01:13 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Humberto Upgrade??? [Re: charlottefl]
      #78371 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:14 AM

Double checking the data. RECON flew into the Center from due East.
The max flight level wind, posted above, of 77 knots was 10nm east of the Center.
Max SFMR estimated surface winds were 70 knots-80mph at 8 nm east of the Center.

Using the NHC flight level to surface reduction for 850mb flight-5000ft of 80%.
SFMR would be near 74mph.
Max flight level wind would be near 80 mph surface wind speed.

These are my quick, estimates. We will have to wait on the next Advisory from NHC/ TPC.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Humberto Upgrade??? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78373 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:16 AM

recon got down just off the beach of Freeport, TX and has done a 180 heading back.. Heck there about 3-6 miles off the beach, flying back NE, at about 5,000ft.

302
URNT12 KNHC 130456
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092007
A. 13/04:47:30Z
B. 29 deg 15 min N
094 deg 30 min W
C. 850 mb 1359 m
D. 70 kt
E. 101 deg 7 nm
F. 178 deg 079 kt
G. 097 deg 008 nm
H. 992 mb
I. 13 C/ 1531 m
J. 21 C/ 1528 m
K. 0 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C8
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0309A HUMBERTO OB 05
MAX FL WIND 79 KT E QUAD 04:44:40 Z
RAGGED EYEWALL
DEW POINT INOP dang it!! inop? inoperable?

I am betting when they went through that first feeder band on the way out, i bet they took a lighting hit.. cause dewpoint was working on the way over LA and into the Gulf...



--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 13 2007 01:24 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Humberto Upgrade??? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78374 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:31 AM

So they are using the Peak Average Flight Level Wind.

I saw a 994mb in the NE Eyewall dropsonde. That was an indicator the central pressure was still dropping.

This storm is beginning to be a pain. And we aren't in La or Tx. Humberto is beating the models with a Texas Punch.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc:
Re: Humberto Upgrade??? [Re: danielw]
      #78375 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:35 AM

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL...
...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COVER SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF CENTER...

AT 1215 AM CDT...0515Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR HUMBERTO MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 992
MB...29.29 INCHES.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Dewpoint Inop [Re: danielw]
      #78378 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:37 AM

you are correct the dew point "INOP" is short for inoperable.
I noticed they lost it when they started their descent from the flight in. About the same time the d value disappeared.

Dropsonde got a good hit on the temps in the Eye.

Surface is at 992mb
Temperature / dewpoint at 992mb: 27.2C / 24.2C

Temperature / dewpoint at 992mb: 27.2C / 24.2C
Temperature / dewpoint at 850mb: 21.6C / 16C
Temperature / dewpoint at 846mb: 21C / 15.2C
Temperature / dewpoint at 843mb: 20.4C / 13.4C

Humberto is drawing the warm moist air up to at least 5000 feet. The 843mb level is right at 5000 feet.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Humberto Upgrade??? [Re: flahurricane]
      #78379 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:39 AM Attachment (280 downloads)

recon is flying in center right now... actually they came in from the SW and flew up the western eyewall and then truned to the NE... winds went all the way down to 5 kts then right back up to strong TS force... looks like to me they are trying to get good data on the eyewall before it makes it ashore here in the next little bit.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 13 2007 01:46 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Hurricane Humberto [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78380 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:40 AM

WTNT44 KNHC 130534
TCDAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
115 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPGRADE HUMBERTO TO A HURRICANE. BOTH THE INITIAL AND 12-HOUR INTENSITY FORECAST HAVE BEEN INCREASED...
AND A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE UPGRADE IS BASED ON DATA RECEIVED FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AND NOAA NWS DOPPLER RADAR.

Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 13 2007 01:43 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hurricane Humberto [Re: danielw]
      #78381 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:44 AM

WTNT24 KNHC 130532
TCMAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
0515 UTC THU SEP 13 2007

AT 1215 AM CDT...0515Z... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR HUMBERTO MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF SARGENT
TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS...AND FROM EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Humberto [Re: danielw]
      #78382 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:44 AM

Well tell ya what...first miss of the year for me and for 99% of forecasters. No one last night would of said that this was going to be a hurricane in less then 24hrs...infact 18 hrs from not classified. Only wishcasters got this 1 right...lol. But a few did pick up on this becoming a hurricane like Cied did... kudos to him as he did well.

Now that its a hurricane...its about to weaken and moving inland.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hurricane Humberto [Re: scottsvb]
      #78383 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:47 AM

URNT12 KNHC 130541
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092007
A. 13/05:24:20Z
B. 29 deg 20 min N
094 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1351 m
D. 48 kt
E. 212 deg 8 nm
F. 298 deg 055 kt
G. 209 deg 007 nm
H. 990 mb
I. 17 C/ 1528 m
J. 22 C/ 1515 m
K. 0 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C6
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / NA nm
P. AF306 0309A HUMBERTO OB 09
MAX FL WIND 79 KT E QUAD 04:44:40 Z
MAX OUTBOUND WIND 76KTS NE QUAD 05:27:00Z
MET ACCURACY 2NM
EYEWALL RAGGED
DEW POINT INOP

Scott, I hope that you are right on Humberto moving inland.
Pressure is down 2mb in less than an hour. And the EYE is 2nm smaller than it was less than an hour ago.
And listed as being "CLOSED".
6nm diameter vacumn cleaner!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Hurricane Humberto [Re: scottsvb]
      #78384 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:49 AM

also just an update... NOAA2 plane did make it to Barbados...This afternoon... Looks like they landed at Grantley Adams International Airport there in Barbados...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Hurricane Humberto [Re: danielw]
      #78385 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:52 AM

here's some weather stations in the Galveston area... i am trying to get a better idea on the dry air... and whats causing the drop in the pressure, etc... just before landfall...

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp?zip=77550&magic=1&wmo=99999

**also i am shocked there calling it closed... the radar data is throwing me off...*** just doesn't look like its closed all the way, but thats what recon is for

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 13 2007 01:54 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Hurricane Humberto [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78386 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:56 AM

Been keeping an eye on Weather Bug out of Crystal Beach (just barely NE of Galveston) - where Mike Seidel has been doing live reports out of all night.

Last ob I saw was a gust to 59 or so & Mike Seidel was reporting back to TWC of gusts up to 60 or so. Looks like it just went offline. Never a good sign. Perhaps just power failure. If Mike Seidel comes back on for another live shot perhaps we can get a better idea, but Crystal Beach is indeed -roughly- where some of these highest winds should be approaching, either directly, or very close to it.


Edit: He looks fine. Power is out behind him in Crystal Beach. Lots of water, and lots and lots of frogs.

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Sep 13 2007 02:09 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: scottsvb]
      #78387 - Thu Sep 13 2007 02:08 AM

Quote:

I dont expect more then a 5mph jump up.



Voila!
At 1:15am he became a hurricane with 80mph winds and 992mbs!
I'd say that is much more than a 5mph jump!

Wow, isn't this America's first landfalling hurricane of this season?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: ltpat228]
      #78388 - Thu Sep 13 2007 02:20 AM

I don't think 10% of the Amateurs or Professionals saw the 80mph wind speeds.
Especially this close to land!

I've grown to expect the unexpected from Humberto. And I'm sure he isn't finished yet.
I'm looking at the 5 day track forecast map on the left side of the page. Last dot places the center of what's left about 90 miles NW of me. Still in the Eastern Semicircle.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Tornado Watch [Re: danielw]
      #78389 - Thu Sep 13 2007 02:22 AM

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 669
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

TORNADO WATCH 669 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LA
LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA CALCASIEU CAMERON
IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION

TX
TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON ORANGE


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: danielw]
      #78390 - Thu Sep 13 2007 02:26 AM

Wow. I just woke up to check the NHC site and saw Humberto is a hurricane. It is raining outside. Just a steady downpour. We are on the
north end of Beaumont so we may not see as much rain as some areas. I would imagine it is pretty windy around High Island.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: ltpat228]
      #78391 - Thu Sep 13 2007 02:28 AM

wow... i was zoomed in on the center watching landfall.... on level II data and i just zoomed out and looped it... a little mini cell got pulled form one feeder band to the NW at a VERY FAST rate inward, it coming ashore right now to the SE of Sabine Pass... got some rotation in it... what gets me, is HOW FAST THIS CELL WAS MOVING TO THE NNW then WNW

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Tornado Watch [Re: danielw]
      #78392 - Thu Sep 13 2007 02:28 AM

Humberto reminds me a lot of Hurricane Katrina before it's 1st landfall in FL.
Very disoraganized very shortly before landfall. A very small storm. And a storm
that strengthened very very quickly in a short period of time. Even though the
hurricane is so close to land it's is fighting to continue intensifying. (not saying it will)
Does anyone see this making it back into the Gulf?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: danielw]
      #78393 - Thu Sep 13 2007 02:28 AM

Quote:

I don't think 10% of the Amateurs or Professionals saw the 80mph wind speeds.
I've grown to expect the unexpected from Humberto.




Yes siree!
The Season with No Reason where fortunately 90% of us can see - LOL.
Indeed - Humberto is America's very first land falling hurricane for 2007.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
SE Texas [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78394 - Thu Sep 13 2007 02:30 AM

Houston and Lake Charles Radar were indicating rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches per hour in the Bolivar Peninsula area near Crystal Beach... and Mike Seidel.
Mike always seems to get the rough end when Jim Cantore isn't in the field.

Hey... Humberto wasn't supposed to be a Hurricane.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Humberto Forms in Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Depression 8 Forms East of Caribbean [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78395 - Thu Sep 13 2007 02:33 AM

Quote:

Wow. I just woke up to check the NHC site and saw Humberto is a hurricane. It is raining outside. Just a steady downpour. We are on the
north end of Beaumont so we may not see as much rain as some areas. I would imagine it is pretty windy around High Island.





well i expect the center to pass really close to you in about 4-7 hrs... it should weaken alot by the time it gets to you....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: SE Texas [Re: danielw]
      #78396 - Thu Sep 13 2007 02:39 AM

Humberto want just give up as it making landfall now.... near or just east of High Island
minus 1 more mb

792
URNT12 KNHC 130630
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092007
A. 13/06:09:50Z
B. 29 deg 27 min N
094 deg 26 min W
C. 850 mb 1346 m
D. NA kt
E. 081 deg 8 nm
F. 165 deg 078 kt
G. 080 deg 010 nm
H. 989 mb
I. 16 C/ 1530 m
J. 26 C/ 1526 m
K. 0 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / NA nm
P. AF306 0309A HUMBERTO OB 11
MAX FL WIND 78 KT E QUAD 06:02:20 Z
RADAR ATTENUATED AND COULDN'T GET GOOD EYE PRESENTATION
MET ACCURACY 2NM

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 13 2007 02:41 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: SE Texas [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78397 - Thu Sep 13 2007 02:42 AM

989mb on the Eye. This storm won't stop!

There is probably going to be some old scale F1 to F3 tornadoes with Humberto. Due to the proximity of the cool front just North of the Coast and I-10.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: SE Texas [Re: danielw]
      #78398 - Thu Sep 13 2007 03:07 AM

Power is out in some coastal communities such as Sabine Pass. Rain is pretty steady here now. We have updates on the local TV station
every 30 minutes or so.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: SE Texas [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78399 - Thu Sep 13 2007 03:26 AM

986mb going into landfall


Stunning performance. The eyewall is becoming more pronounced, with deep convection wrapping more completely all the way around, into landfall, as well.

Folks in the Beaumont/Port Arthur area - take care -


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Humberto Landfall [Re: cieldumort]
      #78400 - Thu Sep 13 2007 03:31 AM

WTNT64 KNHC 130714
TCUAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092007
210 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

NOAA NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATE THAT AT AROUND 200 AM CDT...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE HUMBERTO CROSSED THE TEXAS COAST JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 85 MPH...135 KM/HR.

First US Landfalling Hurricane of 2007. (Hope it is the last one also)~danielw


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: danielw]
      #78402 - Thu Sep 13 2007 05:01 AM

Winds are really picking up now. Humberto is definitely coming through our area.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78403 - Thu Sep 13 2007 05:08 AM

A weather station in Beaumont is reporting wind gusts to 84mph with sustained winds of 54mph.
Looks like Humberto is on more of an Easterly course. Weather there is Beaumont is going to
be rough for a little while. It's impressive how intact the eye of this storm is. In fact, I think it
looks more impressive now than when it made landfall as far as overall appearence is concerned.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: charlottefl]
      #78404 - Thu Sep 13 2007 06:09 AM

For the record, there was at least one more recon after the last one posted. It's now a couple hours old, but still relevant given that it has 986mb. It looks like this central pressure was based on a 989mb dropsonde with 17kt winds, so they lowered it 3mb because they didn't hit the center.

5am NHC report also says: "WIND OF 98 KT WAS REPORTED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...OR AROUND 75 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 986 MB."

This means that the pressure fell another 3mb AFTER it crossed the coast, and the wind speeds jumped another 10kts!

I went to bed and this was a TS with 998mb pressure and I wake up with a hurricane over land.

I suspect this is going to be one storm that will be heavily analyzed given that it was within land based radar for almost it's entire development. This means they have a rare case where they have near complete lifetime radar imagery they can reference to see how it developed.

----
3 hours old:

971
URNT12 KNHC 130705
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092007
A. 13/06:52:00Z
B. 29 deg 32 min N
094 deg 21 min W
C. 850 mb 1308 m
D. 68 kt
E. 214 deg 4 nm
F. 290 deg 065 kt
G. 208 deg 004 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 17 C/ 1525 m
J. 27 C/ 1499 m
K. 0 C/ NA
L. OPEN WSW
M. C17
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / NA nm
P. AF306 0309A HUMBERTO OB 15
MAX FL WIND 78 KT E QUAD 06:02:20 Z
RAGGED EYEWALL
MET ACCURACY 1NM

Edited by Random Chaos (Thu Sep 13 2007 06:21 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: charlottefl]
      #78405 - Thu Sep 13 2007 06:28 AM

The wind is blowing and it is raining here also. We have had some pretty strong gusts. Humberto is no Rita but he will definitely leave his
mark. Pretty amazing how he went from a depression yesterday morning to a hurricane today.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78407 - Thu Sep 13 2007 07:22 AM

Heavy rain in Lafayette, LA right now. From the way it looks on HPC QPF Forecasts and just by looking at radar, south-central Louisiana might get the most rain of anyone with this system. Tropical storm force gusts will also be possible in squalls. Not enough wind to close school though.

This storm definitely caught people in southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas off guard, which is bad because Cameron, LA floods with only a 3-foot surge and 6-foot surge is being predicted. If they had the chance, there would have at least been a precautionary evacuation.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78408 - Thu Sep 13 2007 07:59 AM

I can't think of too many systems that almost tripled in strength within a 12 hour period, that's for sure.

As good as the NHC's track has been for the last several storms, they seem to have missed it a bit with Humberto, particularly in terms of intensity, forecasting a 50-60mph tropical storm and getting an 85mph hurricane. The track has also been consistantly left of the forecast, and even now it appears to be doing the same thing - 7am advisory has Humberto moving NE at 12, while it looks to me on radar to be moving almost due east over the last hour. A more southern track will result in less weakening, I believe, since the land in this part of Louisiana is at best not much above sealevel.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Hurricane Humberto [Re: scottsvb]
      #78409 - Thu Sep 13 2007 08:07 AM

Quote:

Only wishcasters got this 1 right...




Ok, i'll tell you and everyone this again, I did not wishcast this storm.. I have scientific proof on my backup for a strong TS / Hurricane landfall...
1st, I knew this would strengthen to a Hurricane before I went to bed because I found winds on the bouys to be very ominious.
2nd, The waters in that area are VERY warm, you could not have told me it wouldn't have time when we saw Felix and Wilma ramp up the way they did.. at some points in FORECASTING, not wishcasting, you might need to look at past events.
3rd. Humberto was going to get strong, there was no doubt in my mind about this.. I started to say around 5 p.m. yesterday, IF this were to continue, it COULD ramp up into a Hurricane at landfall.. and this is no surprise to me..
Hurricane Claudette ramped up from 65 to 80 mph. storm in one night.. Durinal Maximum took the toll on this one... and I knew it would!
Wishcasting is people who point out where the storm is going to go without scientific proof! There's my proof

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Thu Sep 13 2007 08:11 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Hurricane Humberto [Re: allan]
      #78410 - Thu Sep 13 2007 08:54 AM

The problem I see is the LLC heading back into the GOM around day 5. I'm not worried about it restrengthening but whatever is left moving back towards the Texas coast and causing more flooding rain. When Allison hit here in the Houston area back in '01 we didn't see that much rain the first time we saw her...it was when she looped back around from Lufkin and came back at us for the second time...that is when we saw the 30" of rain. That is what I'm kind of curious about with Humberto.

Shawn


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Hurricane Humberto [Re: allan]
      #78411 - Thu Sep 13 2007 09:32 AM

How realistic are some of these models showing it looping around back to the GOM and then back to Tx/Mexico?? Seriously? IF (I know that's a big if) it was to do that, does that mean there's a chance it could regenerate, or would it most likely be an unorganized blob?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JayBowden
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Humberto [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78412 - Thu Sep 13 2007 09:43 AM

This is a great example that we still have limits to our ability to forecast just what nature will do. In following these posts, storms like this point out the dangers of minimizing a storm as just a TS or Cat 1, etc. It causes people reading they to also minimize the possible effects. "Just a heavy rain event" can be just as catastrophic/deadly as high winds and surge. I just completed a year and a half in the New Orleans EOC and can tell you that it takes over 72 hours to implement the old evac plan and even longer to get out those with mobility challenges... Weigh that against the accuracy of models 3-5 days out ans you can see the problem...

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
Re: Hurricane Humberto [Re: Unregistered User]
      #78413 - Thu Sep 13 2007 10:28 AM

Looking at the storm total precipitation graphic, the heaviest rain in southwest Louisiana appears to be south of Interstate 10. Vermilion Parish (southwest of Lafayette) has seen the heaviest rain with rain totals approaching ten inches in some areas. My weather station at home has recorded a storm total precipitation of 1.50 inches as of 9:30 AM Thursday morning. An additional 2.00 inches of rain (possibly more) appears likely across south-central Louisiana and the Lafayette Metro area. As of this post, my sustained winds in Lafayette are at 11 MPH with gusts to 17 MPH, though my instruments are below standard level and I estimate the winds at standard level to be sustained at 15 MPH and gusting in the 20 - 25 MPH range.

Looking at statewide observations, the highest winds are occurring at Chenault Air Park in Lake Charles where winds are south at 26 MPH gusting to 35 MPH. The highest winds are likely in Beauregard Parish (north of Lake Charles) but the reporting station at Beauregard Parish Airport has apparently lost power as it is no longer reporting.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Chris Bryant
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Loc: NC
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: Hugh]
      #78415 - Thu Sep 13 2007 11:13 AM

From the NHC 11:00 forecast discussion:

BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT
DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS
MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS
DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL
RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR
LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED.

--------------------
--
Chris Bryant
Arden, North Carolina


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: Chris Bryant]
      #78416 - Thu Sep 13 2007 11:37 AM

Quote:

From the NHC 11:00 forecast discussion:

BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT
DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS
MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS
DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL
RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR
LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED.





Could be due to very warm water and little shear. It is amazing that this thing went from a TD to a Cat. 1 in 14 hours or so. With this thing in radar range you could see it develop and then get that eye wall. We knew if the eye wall closed off that this thing could go to a Hurricane. Thankfully it wasn't out in the middle of the GOM like Opal did in 1995.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: Unregistered User]
      #78418 - Thu Sep 13 2007 11:49 AM

Excuse me for doing this on the board and not through a PM.

If you aren't in agreement with another member's line of thinking.
Please PM them or keep it to yourself. Keep the personal tiffs off of the board.
If you PM them keep it nice and clean.
Warning shot across the bow~danielw


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tekkrite
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 9
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: danielw]
      #78423 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:01 PM

Meanwhile, TD8 is getting sheared like a sheep and fighting to hang on--which it is doing pretty well so far, though. I've been watching since the early 90s (only as an interested amateur), and it seems to me that over the past several years the systems seem to be very tenacious. They hang on longer in tough environments than they used to.

Humble suggestion: Maybe time for a new thread?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: danielw]
      #78424 - Thu Sep 13 2007 01:03 PM

As Humberto weakens and heads eastward, I'm worried about NOLA. Are the levees strong enough to hold much water? This storm is like a wall of heavy rain heading towards them.. Flooding will be expected and hopefully the levees will hold the water this time
The season is still going, it's la nina so that means more storms later on. If a storm in what I like to call "Wilma conditions" like Humberto did, it's not going to look good. Btw, was there ever a Humberto in the GOM? Most of the Humbertos i've seen were fish storms.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 355
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: tekkrite]
      #78426 - Thu Sep 13 2007 02:14 PM

Quote:

Meanwhile, TD8 is getting sheared like a sheep and fighting to hang on--which it is doing pretty well so far, though. I've been watching since the early 90s (only as an interested amateur), and it seems to me that over the past several years the systems seem to be very tenacious. They hang on longer in tough environments than they used to.





TD8 IS hanging in there...a lot less symetrical, but nice flare-up of convection early this afternoon just north of the COC. Will be interesting to see how well it survives the next 2 days. Looks like the shear just ahead is relaxing a bit, but not to the north of it. I do NOT like storms in this area. They almost always threaten Florida, although they only seem to actually AFFECT us about 50% of the time. Mets keep us posted on future trends here.

Also, it looks like the models on Humberto are going in opposite directions. GFDL wants a hairpin turn back through the GOM to south Texas, while the BAMM now wants to take it though the deep south to the Atlantic...can't be much farther apart than that. GOM is so warm it could EASILY refire if its center re-emerges from the land....keeping close watch!!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #78427 - Thu Sep 13 2007 03:11 PM

This storm is like a wall of heavy rain heading towards them.. Flooding will be expected and hopefully the levees will hold the water this time "


The levees are not the problem in NO in heavy rain. The levees hold out the Mississippi and Lake Ponchitain. The flooding comes with heavy rain whe the pumps can't handle large amounts, and can't pump it out fast enough. NO should be fine. The test there will be the first storm with a storm surge...thats the culprit...we are still down 15-20 inches in rainfall here in Pcola...this rain is welcome

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
louisianatracker
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 2
Loc: SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: allan]
      #78428 - Thu Sep 13 2007 03:23 PM

Regarding questions about the levees in New Orleans:

We should not have any major problem with Humbertos rainfall. We are experiencing some ongoing bands of rainfall at this time. Winds are fairly mild.
Our biggest need for the levees is to keep storm surge out of the city from the lakes, Mississippi River Gulf Outlet Canal, and marshes. Part of the levee system keeps river flooding and storm surge heading up the river from the gulf at bay. You are correct in your assumption that rainfall can be a problem. Since we have constructed ourselves into a "fishbowl" surrounded by these levees, rainwater has no place to go. We are crisscrossed by numerous canals which run towards Lake Pontchartrain. We have numerous large pumps which expel water into the lakes. As a rule of thumb, these pumps can adequately pump-out about 1-inch of rain for the first hour of rainfall, and about 1/2-inch of rain per hour therafter. Any rainfall in excess of these numbers does create backups in the canals and results in street and house flooding in certain low-lying areas. Pumping capacity has been reduced in two of the canals which have now been sealed at the mouth where they meet the lake. (Canals which breached during Katrina). There is some concern that too much water in the weaker repaired canals could cause some degree of failure if water levels are allowed to get too high in those canals. I do not forsee a problem in this particular storm event, but my canoe is always nearby just in case!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
weather999
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 25
Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: ChessieStorm]
      #78429 - Thu Sep 13 2007 04:21 PM

While I did think Humberto would strengthen prior to landfall, I didn't think TX/LA would have a 75kt landfall on their hands. It really did look like there was no shear around that storm.. and once the eyewall got sorted out.. a hurricane was born... another oddity of the season.. we now have the most rapidly intensifying storm prior to landfall, and first year of 2 cat 5's landfalling at one time.

As for TD 8, it's getting harder to locate the centre.. still a chance to intensify and reach TS, though.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JFV
Unregistered




Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: weather999]
      #78430 - Thu Sep 13 2007 04:29 PM

What do you mean its becoming difficult to pinpoint TD8's LLC? Take a look at the current floater visable loop on the NHC website cooncering TD8 and tell wheather thats actually the case or not? I'll look forward to your replied response.

easy, man. what do you want him to do, come back and say 'oh you're so right?' no need to patronize people. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 13 2007 06:23 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 307
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: weather999]
      #78431 - Thu Sep 13 2007 04:43 PM

RGB is a great loop for locating the LLC- especially when it is partially exposed.
Please excuse the one line post. Actually that was 2 lines.3? Pete and repeat were in a boat.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: craigm]
      #78432 - Thu Sep 13 2007 05:14 PM

What is the location of the Bermuda High? Any time now frontal systems from the East Coast should be strong enough to weaken the High, which could, from what i've read, steer storms towards Fla or they could go out to sea. In my opinion storms that form in the Northeastern Caribbean or Southwest Atlantic (south of the Bahamas) at this time of the year are more prone to strike Fla. I guess storms, like Wilma, in the Western Caribbean could also play a role this time of year as well.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: damejune2]
      #78433 - Thu Sep 13 2007 05:25 PM

Depends on what type of system is underneath it. But this should give you a general idea
where the Bermuda High is located at. It's actually pretty strong for this time of year.
And most of the fronts that having been coming down recently have been weak/moderate.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: Unregistered User]
      #78434 - Thu Sep 13 2007 05:36 PM

As for difficulty locating the LLC, even the NHC is having that problem, so it's no surprise people here are.

From the 5pm discussion:
"CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALLER WEAKER LOW ROTATING ABOUT A MORE DOMINANT...BROAD...CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION WILL BE BASED ON A CENTROID POSITION OF THE TWO CIRCULATION CENTERS."


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 307
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: damejune2]
      #78436 - Thu Sep 13 2007 05:57 PM

Cold Fronts don't steer storms towards Florida. It all depends on the location of the storm the ridge and the front. Wilma being a perfect example.

Storms are always wanting to trend to the right due to the Coriolis effect explained below. Cold fronts (troughs) create weakness in Highs (ridges) allowing storms to escape poleward. Picture mountain ranges upside down with valleys in between them would be a simplistic way of visualizing the atmosphere.

Coriolis Effect:
Coriolis effect is an inertial force described by the 19th-century French engineer-mathematician Gustave-Gaspard Coriolis in 1835. Coriolis showed that, if the ordinary Newtonian laws of motion of bodies are to be used in a rotating frame of reference, an inertial force--acting to the right of the direction of body motion for counterclockwise rotation of the reference frame or to the left for clockwise rotation--must be included in the equations of motion.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie

Edited by craigm (Thu Sep 13 2007 06:09 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
humberto out, 8 out? [Re: craigm]
      #78437 - Thu Sep 13 2007 06:19 PM

when i left things be last night i didn't think humberto had that kind of intensification left to do. proximity to land is usually cited as a reason for a storm not to develop any more, but every that only seems to work when it's mountainous land. that little sucker was dropping about 1mb an hour--would have easily been a cat 3 with another day at sea. models still take some it's essence back over the northern gulf, but i very much doubt it will redevelop. stuff like that is tougher late in the season as the westerlies start harrying things closer to the continent.
tropical depression 8 has been tropical storm ingrid for about a day. i don't think it will survive the shear, so maybe the NHC thinks it doesn't deserve a name. it will be tropical storm 8 in post season analysis, though, after holding down a 2.5 rating for four cycles and having unflagged gale vectors from the satellite overpass. don't see why they don't name it... all the reasons they've given not to have not held water at one time or another, and the tools they usually rely on have all been calling it a storm.
anyhow, TD 8 will probably continue wnw for the next couple of days, and eventually peter out as the shear picks up. if it can manage one good cough of convection over the center for a few hours maybe the NHC will finally call it ingrid... but it is probably a moot point.
globals are still showing pattern-forced pressure falls in the bahamas/florida area this weekend. be wary of anything that starts trying to come up, because the pattern will probably be friendly to it.
the mess behind TD 8 may try to pop something, up in the subtropics. the stuff closer to the ITCZ is having a bit of trouble, but is also worth monitoring at least. collectively this stuff is just in the wait and see, probably nothing mode.
HF 2219z13september


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
M.A.
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 100
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: Humberto Landfall [Re: Random Chaos]
      #78438 - Thu Sep 13 2007 06:29 PM

I posed a question on the forecast lounge forum about that "other" low pressure just south of TD#8's dominate COC. I have never seen this before. Any thoughts on whether it is a totally different system or is it a sheared upper level part of TD #8?
There seems to be a nice blow up of convection this evening on TD #8. It looks to be dead center of the COC. Might we see this storm actually start to develop tonight?


Mike


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 815
Loc: hollywood,florida
Re: humberto out, 8 out? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #78439 - Thu Sep 13 2007 08:54 PM

I for one will continue to watch TD 8 for a while.It looks alot better now than it did just a few hours ago.It has done very well with all that shear,it is still alive.Yes it could die,But I have seen TD's like this that hang on turn into bad storms.It is showing life tonight.So I am not ready to write this system off yet.This has already been an odd season.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
Re: humberto out, 8 out? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #78441 - Thu Sep 13 2007 09:11 PM

NRL now says 08L.INGRID

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom.../track_vis/dmsp


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Tropical Storm Ingrid forms east of islands [Re: Hootowl]
      #78442 - Thu Sep 13 2007 09:26 PM

Looking at the current IR/AVN loop, Ingrid may be the shortest lived tropical storm on record, though. I'm not sure it'll make it as a tropical storm until the 11pm advisory (when it would get the official upgrade), as sad as it looks right now.

Edit: Boy, was I wrong. Ingrid has really developed a deep area of convection right over the LLC in the last hour and a half!

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Thu Sep 13 2007 10:24 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms east of islands [Re: Hugh]
      #78443 - Thu Sep 13 2007 10:16 PM

Strange as it may sound to other weather watchers...my guard continues to be down on TD8 when compared to the remanants of Humberto. When it comes to a focus on the tropics, my attention is still there very much.

Models indicate an eventual turn to the east, southeast, then south back into the Gulf....As referenced in the 5PM NHC Discussion, the models as seen on SFWMD website show the same.
...However, they dismiss possible redevelopment.

There were only a few opportunities for an NHC Forecast Discussions during the life of Humberto, but they ranged from a decoupled storm after landfall (with uppers moving on and a lower left behind) to a a low pressure system moving ESE over Mississippi. Looks like the uppers are departing and the lowers are doing it's thing.

Anyhow, we have a big buckle over the GOMEX in the tradewinds now thanks to the "H" factor. Very noticable in this evenings SHortwave that the low level flow across the entire Gulf is out of the SW instead of out of the ESE. Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

That is very unique and very representative of the impact that Humberto is imparting across the Gulf. For such a small system, the overall envelope grew quite extensive quickly and I am glad for the folks impacted that it made landfall sooner, not later. Even though a hurricane is a hurricane and that is never good. In fact, the banding like features have spread as far east as the Florida Penninsula.

Anyhow, back to the point. I'd imagine a High Presure Ridge would be the actual influence of that afformentioned SE to South motion of the low level remenants in a few days...That should tighten up a pressure gradient to some extent to the north of Humberto's lowpressure center. Likewise, if SW winds remain over the GOMEX for a few days...Between these two factors, it really won't be hard to get the surface energy of Humberto Spinning again off the coast of Mississippi, Alabama or the Florida Panhandle.

If there is appropriate upper level support, and Humberto's lower elements make it to the Gulf again...I would suspect that it is tennacious enough for rebirth in the Gulf late this weekend into Monday. Especially considering that the models show the opportunity of a Gulf reimergance. That might end up being a wierd and strange tale of Humberto Part II in the Gulf (especially strange along the western Gulf), kinda like Dennis in 1999 in the Carolina's and Ivan in the Gulf in 2004.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms east of islands [Re: dem05]
      #78444 - Thu Sep 13 2007 10:32 PM

We have Ingrid:

WTNT33 KNHC 140227
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST THU SEP 13 2007

...THE NINTH STORM OF THE YEAR FORMS TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...

I am in agreement with dem05, the near term concern is the return of Humberto, something we have to watch very closely.

Bill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc:
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms east of islands [Re: BillD]
      #78446 - Thu Sep 13 2007 11:02 PM

Does anyone see possible development in the next 72 hours in the western Caribbean as some models suggest?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms east of islands [Re: BillD]
      #78450 - Fri Sep 14 2007 04:02 AM

Right up to and right after Humberto's landfall I would have been more immediately concerned about recurvature into the GOM, but this is looking a little bit less possible (and never was highly likely) with each passing couple of hours.

Humberto is decoupling quite appreciably, and it continues to look as if he is melding with the front, on way to an eventual exit - probably off the southeast coast somewhere.

I do think it is actually starting to look nearly equally possible that whatever is left of Humberto rekindles a bit over the Gulf Stream. Either a GOM or Gulf Stream rebirth of Humberto.. looks to me like maybe a 25% chance of either of these two scenarios really happening. That might sound like an awful lot, but maybe it's not, as once these kinds of tropical systems take up some firm roots, it can almost take an act of god to dislodge their grips on potential regeneration (Consider Erin and Ivan as two recent examples).

In the nearer term we have Ingrid over the open waters. I suspect that shear will not be as detrimental to Ingrid's prospects as official forecasts and model guidance suggests. Consider that already, for the better part of at least 24 hours prior to being named, Ingrid was being bombarded with considerable shear, and yet, despite all of this, continued to hold on to a fairly well-defined vortex within a generally larger circulation, had entirely believable 35 knot wind vectors on scatterometer passes, and generally scored 2.5 across the board for T numbers throughout. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to conclude that Ingrid may easily be backdated to a tropical storm as much as a full 24 hours prior to being named. And it also doesn't take rocket science to conclude that Ingrid is already another tenacious cyclone. How tenacious? Verdict is certainly still out. If her ability to fend off shear is any indication, and with increasingly warmer and warmer waters up ahead, about the only thing that might really do her in more than anything else would be an untimely run-in with dry air, perhaps.

Also in the near term I believe we may need to start paying at least some attention to the southern Caribbean. It appears that a surface low may be forming. A ship located in this area of disturbed weather, around 11.6N 74W, recently reported sustained winds of 36.9 knots and a pressure of only 29.67. Additionally, I think maybe HF already alluded to this, I would be keeping a watchful eye on the area around Cuba/Florida Straits/either side of Florida this weekend. My own thinking is that some forced pressure falls may come about and work somewhat in tandem with a preexisting surface reflection of the ULL centered roughly about 25N 65W, perhaps even to entrain and work with whatever is left available of x-Humberto in the area.

It's the climatological peak of what has already proven to be an above-average season, so until I see that trend break down, I might think a bit bullishly. We all were exposed to history at one time or another. Remember, "Remember the Alamo"? I'm replacing that with "Remember the Humberto, the Erino, the Felixio, and the Deano" at least until October's over. This year has been one to surprise on the upside.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms east of islands [Re: cieldumort]
      #78451 - Fri Sep 14 2007 05:16 AM

Ingrid will be a slow mover for a fef days. Hard to say what it will do with nothing to pick it up. I do note however that the forcast no longer goes through Herbert's box.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms east of islands [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #78452 - Fri Sep 14 2007 10:04 AM

The local weather office in Va is talking about the possibility of the trough off the SE coast moving to the coast next Tuesday as a weak subtropical low. Anyone have any thoughts about this? Any chance that is could be joined by Humberto's remants, if they go east, rather than looping back into the Gulf?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms east of islands [Re: Ed in Va]
      #78453 - Fri Sep 14 2007 12:16 PM

Based on the data and sats and radar... looks like Humberto's remnant surface reflection will make back into the GOM, sometime tomorrow near New Orleans area...Mississippi area... Would say the enlongated area of it may be just to the SSW of Jackson, MS. Moving to the SSE... The mid-upper feature is being carried off to the NE along the trough...

Sat

vis of central gulf coast

Surface obs

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 14 2007 02:41 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #78454 - Fri Sep 14 2007 01:18 PM

Wow, that's just an awful, awful looking environment for developing TCs out there in the Atlantic..

The environment improves greatly beyond about 108 hours, but that is a long time for a stripped eddy to whirl around without spinning down. This may very well go to remnant low status by D3 here...and be forgotten for 30 hours, only to re-emerge -- probably be designated a new feature if that happens, though.... Somewhere N of PR or nearing Bahamas, to S of Bermuda. Could see this downgraded to TD by tomorrow morning; or if not it would take some unusually tenacious resistence.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms east of islands [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78455 - Fri Sep 14 2007 01:58 PM

I think Humberto's stripped remnant surface low is actually still headed at least a bit farther east, and just now may be entering west-central Alabama as it is, with most of his mid/upper level remnants, including the bulk of the precipitation, well to the east and northeast of that location.
Radar Huntsville, Al

x-Humberto has latched on to the quasi-stationary frontal track, and has been riding it like a hobo on a train. There is an approaching cold front to the north of this, which may be helping nudge him/it back to the south, but my best guess is that it's unlikely to be pushed right over NOLA if that were to happen... already probably too far east for this. And, it appears to me to be equally likely, or perhaps even a bit more likely, to ride the front all the way to the east coast, or southeast like Ga/Fl, and not the GOM.

I suspect, perhaps, something more Humberto-related to watch over the next 48 hours or so is the persistent feeder band, now identified as a trough draped from Humberto's remnant surface low, that extends well into the northwestern GOM. It keeps firing showers and a few thunderstorms off along its entirety.

I guess as a post script on Humberto, I sure wouldn't want to forget that he is still floating around out there, tho. And with so many models having been insisting on bringing him back into the GOM to rekindle at least a little bit, there's certainly more than just our eyeballs and best guesses looking out for this possibility.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
H-I storms [Re: cieldumort]
      #78458 - Fri Sep 14 2007 06:16 PM

h-storm is now a decoupled remnant low. hpc is tracking the vortmax up near rome georgia. what i'm watching is the low-level vorticity washing south-southeastward over lower mississippi, due back in the gulf overnight. there's decent low level convergence offshore, and it's probably at least going to maintain a disturbance. it's pie in the sky, and has almost no model support, but there's still a snowball's chance that it will start acting up again over the gulf. i'm betting against, for what it's worth.
i-storm is being talked down by most everybody. it's unclear what will happen with whatever is left of ingrid around the middle of next week. about half of the globals recurve it and send the remnant vorticity northeast to meet up with another deep layer-type low up there. the other half squeeze what is left under the sharp, strong ridge progged for the western atlantic next week and send it rocketing westward. the forecast with it is extremely uncertain... as was reckoned on here by others.. the thing could die and then come back as a westward moving, threat system.
gonna be stuff to worry about closer in. most of the models are developing a coastal inverted trough or perhaps low near the southeast over the next few days. getting a system out of the mess is a possibility, and that could have all kinds of possible outcomes based on exactly where and when such a thing would try to happen. also, euro keeps making a hurricane in the sw caribbean next week and sending it up into the gulf. some of the other globals see trouble in the general area, too. doesn't look like a quiet week, though the players aren't all on the field, and it's a question which ones, if any, will show up.
HF 2216z14september


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: H-I storms [Re: HanKFranK]
      #78459 - Fri Sep 14 2007 07:33 PM

It looks as though Ingrid is moving away from the possibility of hitting Florida (Miami area) and I am sorta wondering when we will get a hurricane our way...I moved here to Miami from Manchester, NH and when we last got a hurricane, I was too little to remember it so ya..

Wishcasting material removed

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Sep 15 2007 10:26 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: H-I storms [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #78460 - Fri Sep 14 2007 07:43 PM

After going through Wilma, Jeanne & Francis I can live without another storm. Too early to tell where, when and how Ingrid is going; just don't wishcast it on yourself.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
syfr
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 19
Loc: Central NC
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #78461 - Fri Sep 14 2007 07:55 PM

Here in east central NC there's been numerous tornados in the county Im in currently (Johnston). Coming home from dinner we drove around an area of tornado warnings (and obvious tornadic activity) to reach home. At the moment, torrential rain is falling, along with intense lightning. The last tornado warning was just east of us about 30 min ago and we're under the remnants of the balance of that storm (the rotation has now stopped...just LOTS of rain and wind).

They just announced 390 lightning strikes in last 15 min, in this immediate area

Hola Humberto!

Edited by syfr (Fri Sep 14 2007 07:56 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: syfr]
      #78462 - Fri Sep 14 2007 08:58 PM

How large are Humberto's bands? This is what I would like to know. Here in Miami we are getting torential rains nonstop which are causing flooding and thunderstorms associated with this activity..I hope we dont get any tornadoes..If that is the case than I say "Humberto stay away"

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jessiej
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 26
Loc: Pembroke Pines, Fl
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #78463 - Fri Sep 14 2007 09:17 PM

Looking at the lastest infrared, the wind shear is is meeting up with Ingrid. It looks like a batch of convection is trying to move to the SW. Don't know if this is the LLC, but it looks like it is trying to slide underneath.

--------------------
Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005

Edited by jessiej (Fri Sep 14 2007 09:20 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: jessiej]
      #78465 - Fri Sep 14 2007 11:54 PM

Ingrid is going to struggle or try to survive for the next many days as it moves NW...

Area over the western carribean is still my area of focus for the beginning of next week. With high pressure over the NE U.S. and NW Atlantic pressures in the carribean should be droping. Where and if it develops is uncertain....but its probably the better of the 2 watched areas since we have along time if any with Ingrid.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 278
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #78466 - Sat Sep 15 2007 08:48 AM

What is that over southeast of the bahamas looks scary at 8:25am its a blow up of deep thunderstorms and it has an eye.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 307
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: scottsvb]
      #78467 - Sat Sep 15 2007 09:00 AM

I am seeing a definte wnw bias to Ingrid where the 24h ofcl track won't even verify. If the mid level structure of the storm is sheared away whats left to steer? The LLC may just slide under the shear level along with the westerlies. There jumping up and down over at the CMC office - for once in the last 5 years they might have got it right.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 815
Loc: hollywood,florida
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: Robert]
      #78468 - Sat Sep 15 2007 09:02 AM

Quote:

What is that over southeast of the bahamas looks scary at 8:25am its a blow up of deep thunderstorms and it has an eye.





That is strange,I am going to assume that that is not a true "eye".Maybe one of the Mets can chime in and explain what this is.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #78469 - Sat Sep 15 2007 09:24 AM

Boy that IS freaky looking! Maybe it's just a coincidental break in the clouds that looks like an "eye?" It doesn't really look like there's rotation there??

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 355
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: Robert]
      #78470 - Sat Sep 15 2007 09:37 AM

Quote:

What is that over southeast of the bahamas looks scary at 8:25am its a blow up of deep thunderstorms and it has an eye.




I wouldn't say it has an 'eye'. It appears to be an upper level low and has a definite circulation, so I guess you could say its LLC appears a bit like the center of a tropical system. I saw this feature start to pick up convection last night, but there is no mention of it in discussions here or in Miami. So it must just be a ULL.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tekkrite
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 9
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ingrid forms, Humberto's remnants drench the southeast [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #78472 - Sat Sep 15 2007 10:39 AM Attachment (338 downloads)

I think you're right, but it IS odd. The "eye" wasn't visible long. Here's a screen capture for posterity. The Puerto Rico view is a good one to watch this thunderstorm complex in for now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-rgb.html

Edited by tekkrite (Sat Sep 15 2007 10:51 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
cluster [Re: tekkrite]
      #78473 - Sat Sep 15 2007 10:56 AM

hmm.. a few thunderstorms blew up east of the bahamas. that's all it is right now. if it keeps persisting, though... could cause some trouble. that's a synoptically favored place. really everything from that region southward to panama will be looking good for trouble to start over the next few days (upper trough has to clear the middle of the caribbean for further south, though). keep looking for something over in this general area... or somethings.
most of the models have a big enough weakness punched in the ridge where ingrid's decaying swirl is headed that almost none push it westward, now. this time of year a system getting into that general area can 'go kyle' on ya.. the weak, little movement shown for whatever makes it past the shear, if anything, could be the start of one of those events.
wave behind ingrid is fairly well organized, and has a fairly good bulge on the ITCZ. the northeastern portion of this thing is already getting some shear, but the part to the south is scraping along under it. possible spot to watch for slow development.
HF 1456z15september


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: cluster [Re: HanKFranK]
      #78474 - Sat Sep 15 2007 11:26 AM

Timing is the key to if Ingrid threatens the USA whether it be TD or TS.. IF the storm in the Craribean developes and hit's Florida, Ingrid will stall as it can't head east or west with high to the east and low to the west. If the storm does not form OR if it heads west, Ingrid heads west to the USA. Shear will continue to rip Ingrid for 2 days, Monday, a new day has begun and shear will only be at 15 knots. Models like NOGAPS, HRMF, and UKMET point out that it could make a comeback that day. I agree, this year, all the storms have surprised us.. Ingrid can't move north of Bermuda do to a strong ridge, it could move east then west and sort of loop around till the high weakens, basically what the GFS points out. I expected this to be a TD at 11 a.m., didn't think it would hold it's status this far out in 30-35 knots of shear, yet we should remember Barry. All of the east Coast should watch Ingrid, but not worry. Ingrid is a tough little gal, if Irene (2005) survived the devestating shear, so can Ingrid!

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 7 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 61467

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center