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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas [Re: Todd Caldwell]
      #78502 - Mon Sep 17 2007 11:44 AM

There is a midlevel low over N central Florida and is forecasted to strengthen over the next day or 2... Area your seeing is thunderstorm convergence over the warm waters on then end of a old front. This is being forecasted to form and drift W into the gulf...but its not tropical or fully tropical.. More of a midlevel flow as it will have a upper low cyclone present and not a anti for exhaust.

Ingrid might come back some in a couple of days and still mositure and a low might come N south of cuba in a few days also as the above mentioned moves into the central GOM. Once it gets into the central gulf..more tropical characteristics could take place.. .and there is a chance this could become a pure tropical storm or hurricane down the road as a weak ridge remains over the SE U.S.

Edited by scottsvb (Mon Sep 17 2007 12:11 PM)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas [Re: MikeC]
      #78503 - Mon Sep 17 2007 11:59 AM

A nice change for mid September:


CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE
DIMINISHED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


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Todd Caldwell
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 6
Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas [Re: scottsvb]
      #78504 - Mon Sep 17 2007 12:19 PM

Thanks Scottsvb. We are home schooling four children and my oldest daughter is getting a good education this season on synoptic meteorology from the experts and enthusiest in these forums as they discuss hurricane formations, strengths and track forcasting. She had picked out the disturbance this morning and starting asking questions. The discussions in here are far and above more informative than what she could ever get from a 10th grade text book and it is much like a live-action Florida Virtual school course.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas [Re: Todd Caldwell]
      #78506 - Mon Sep 17 2007 12:39 PM

Flhurricane is a good site...though we do have a few wishcasters that will think everythings going to develop...Im sure you can figure out over time who they could be.

Even though we have alot of good Mets or just good intelligent people giving their takes on things and good info...Im sure the 10th grade weather book has the good basic facts.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas [Re: scottsvb]
      #78507 - Mon Sep 17 2007 01:16 PM

48 year olds learn a lot from ths site too!!

Just watch the wishcasrers; every hurricane does not hit Florida.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas [Re: scottsvb]
      #78508 - Mon Sep 17 2007 02:53 PM

Scott, the remains of Ingrid do not look healthy enought to survive, the low is no longer a tight circulation but highly elongated, and largly non-existent on the western side. BUT the pattern is changing in the W. Carribean and the GOM as ridging becomes dominant ove the central Gulf coast. I too noted the low in north central Florida peninsula and it is in the lower to mid levels, IMO....if this were over water an invest might be in order..(see Jeff Masters blog today which suggested the hunters are already alerted for later this week). Also the wave along 70 south of 20 has some cyclonic motion near Hispanola.
Need to keep a watch for Thursday or so.
EDS

--------------------
doug


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas [Re: doug]
      #78509 - Mon Sep 17 2007 03:40 PM

Yeah Ingrids chances are very low... my main area is what you stated in the carribean. The area over florida isnt in the LLs just in the mid. With bad upper level enviroment throughout the SW Atlantic and into the Carribean...conditions dont favor really anything until the central gulf in a few days. Chances I give Ingrid is 20% The midlevel circulation will move SE and develop a small low near the FL straits and move W. Cold Air aloft should warm and we will get a midlevel ridge over the SE ahead of a trough over the upper plains. This should let the system get alot better organized as it moves west thru the gulf. I give that a 60%. Im still glancing at energy staying in the carribean with lower pressures but will shear from the above system hamper development or not is 1 of a few questions... 30% chance on this.

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OrlandoHurricane
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Loc: Central Florida
You have to love that crazy Canadian Model [Re: MikeC]
      #78510 - Mon Sep 17 2007 03:45 PM Attachment (349 downloads)

The Canadian Model is at it again. It's trying to form a hurricane off the Florida coast by Thursday. All of it's tropical systems get steroid injections.

Note: This is not going to happen.

Edited by OrlandoHurricane (Mon Sep 17 2007 03:48 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: You have to love that crazy Canadian Model [Re: OrlandoHurricane]
      #78511 - Mon Sep 17 2007 04:04 PM

I go by the patterns and steering. I do see something hitting the USA in a few days.. but it may not be all that and a bag of chips. Models are popping on and off on that GOM storm.. I don't have much confidence on it developing yet but conditions do look favorable. For the storm off the east coast, the CMC is not the only game in play.. GFS hints at a possible cyclone there and the NAM which I do admit, it has done a good job this year on tropical systems, shows a tropical storm nearing my coastline then in to the GOM.. This scenario is NOT out of the realm. I back my proof up with scientific facts, which proves I am NOT a wishcaster.

Personal remarks removed~danielw

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by danielw (Mon Sep 17 2007 06:05 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Canadian Model and other Discussions [Re: OrlandoHurricane]
      #78514 - Mon Sep 17 2007 07:19 PM

"Never, say never, when dealing with the weather" also known as the Humberto 2007 slogan.

Someone posted "2007 The Season With No Reason" the other night.

Now to today's various Discussions. (Excerpts with links to full Discussion)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
304 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

VALID 00Z TUE SEP 18 2007 - 12Z WED SEP 19 2007
...THE FRONT WHICH DELIVERED THE COOL AIR A FEW DAYS AGO CURRENTLY
LIES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT AS A WARM FRONT AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THAT ALONG WITH THE FORMATION OF A
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS SHOULD RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES FROM THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS GOING INTO TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdspd.html

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
959 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

VALID 12Z FRI SEP 21 2007 - 12Z MON SEP 24 2007
...THE 06Z/17 DGEX IS UNUSABLE BECAUSE OF THE WAY IT PULLS TROPICAL
ENERGY NWD INTO THE SERN STATES AGAINST ALL OTHER GUIDANCE.
...YDAYS FINAL FCST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK LOW TO TRACK NWWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FITS ACCEPTABLY WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF
00Z MODEL SOLNS... SO WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE.
LATEST THINKING FROM HPC/TPC COORDINATION WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE
NEW FINAL FCST LATER TODAY.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
318 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

VALID 12Z THU SEP 20 2007 - 12Z MON SEP 24 2007
...PLAINS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...

AFTER ELIMINATING THE DGEX AND CANADIAN AS OUTLIERS IN BRINGING
TROPICAL ENERGY WELL N INTO THE SERN STATES...AND THE NAM ALONG
THE ERN GULF COAST REGION THU DAY 3...THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY
STRAIGHTFORWARD.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
611 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 18/0000 UTC THRU SEP 21/0000 UTC
DAY 1...
...FL...
ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH OF WEAK E/W STNRY BNDRY WL ALSO
SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS ACRS A LARGE SECTION OF THE FL PENINSULA. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST 24 HRS..SOME POCKET OF MDT TO
HEAVY RAIN IS PSBL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...THOUGH WITH TIME SOME DRIER AIR
SHOULD WORK SWD ALONG THE NRN FL COAST. HEAVIER GFS AMOUNTS LOOK
BETTER HERE.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
119 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

VALID SEP 17/1200 UTC THRU SEP 21/0000 UTC
MODEL TRENDS...

...LOW LIFTING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS...
THE NAM HAS TRENDED FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
HAS ALSO TRENDED FASTER WITH THE LOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...

...LOW LIFTING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS...
THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE GEM GLOBAL MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM...BUT THESE
TWO MODELS HAVE SHOWN THIS DEVELOPED BIAS WITH SYSTEMS ORIGINATING
IN THIS REGION THE PAST WARM SEASON. WILL THEREFORE RECOMMEND A
SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE FASTER...FLATTER GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODEL
CONSENSUS.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

After reading all of the above Discussions. I'll stick with the satellite loops, Also known as "What You see... Is what you get"~danielw


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Canadian Model and other Discussions [Re: danielw]
      #78516 - Mon Sep 17 2007 09:51 PM

Great point about Humberto. If I remember correctly, I was reading in some places "no development" from this system. Watched that system
for several days. Tagged an invest, then not an invest, then an invest again and well, we all know what happened with him. I got a first
hand look at what happened with Humberto. The models are great, but ultimately, the storms "have a mind of their own" so to speak.
Most important, things change daily. So, let's just wait and see what plays out. Nothing wrong with making predictions though.


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: Canadian Model and other Discussions [Re: danielw]
      #78517 - Mon Sep 17 2007 11:34 PM

Quote:

Someone posted "2007 The Season With No Reason" the other night.



Me me ME - I did.
Ha Ha.
Well I did...especially after Allan's continual forecasts for Humberto turned out to be correct (for the most part).
The Season With No Reason simply came to mind and I tell you, that's certainly what I'm observing so far in 2007!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Canadian Model and other Discussions [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #78518 - Mon Sep 17 2007 11:36 PM

Quote:

Nothing wrong with making predictions though.




You hit the nail on the Head.

Predictions are fine... as long as they are in the Forecast Lounge
They will most probably get booted in the Talkback Forum.
Especially with a Landfalling Tropical Cyclone.


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: Canadian Model and other Discussions [Re: danielw]
      #78519 - Mon Sep 17 2007 11:51 PM

Quote:

Nothing wrong with making predictions though.



Predictions are fine... as long as they are in the Forecast Lounge
They will most probably get booted in the Talkback Forum.
Especially with a Landfalling Tropical Cyclone.



Oh yes, I enjoy reading predictions from certain posters I trust.
In fact, I've been visiting this site a little over 2 years and just a few months ago figured out where this lounge place is - ha ha.
Many of my posts were sent to the graveyard, or moved to another location (some I never ever found!).
It is easy to post in the incorrect area as many of us inadvertently and unkowningly do.
This site is so chocked full of information and links, it takes quite a while to navigate.
So I don't post that much and have resorted to PMs.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Ingrid...she's back [Re: ltpat228]
      #78522 - Tue Sep 18 2007 03:04 AM Attachment (418 downloads)

While waiting on the satellites to come out of their eclipse. I checked the NRLMY tropics page and...
Ingrid appears to be back!
The 0530Z sat shot is poor as it's from another satellite. But Ingrid-appears to have out run the shear and is in a nice round shape with outflow channels building.
Estimated position is 16N/ 60W or just east of the Island of Guadeloupe.
Perfect comma shape with around 270degrees of outflow channel.

This might be a problem. However I noticed data from a USAF Hurricane Hunter in the St Croix area on Sunday. So they may have a plane or two close by.

see attachment for 0530Z sat shot

Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 18 2007 03:13 AM)


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