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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas [Re: allan]
      #78546 - Tue Sep 18 2007 03:21 PM

The obs on the shear map are off.. bad data...its still around 25-30kts.It will be a day or 2 before the upper low weakens.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas [Re: scottsvb]
      #78547 - Tue Sep 18 2007 03:24 PM

yeah Doug the circulation looks near where you said....but I think it will reorganize north more near 27.5N alittle north of grandbahama. I think Tony gives a good obs on his statement.

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas [Re: scottsvb]
      #78548 - Tue Sep 18 2007 03:24 PM

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF
Where the center is, shear is 15-20 knots.. not 30 knots.. it is in fact 30 knots where the broad moisture is.. but the center where the deepest convection is and where the pressures are falling with high winds are at 15-20 knots which is marginal for developent
* when I say high winds, I only mean 30-35 mph.*
* 4:24 p.m. as of the new update of the cimms shear map, shear has increased to 20 knots over the center*

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Tue Sep 18 2007 04:25 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: MikeC]
      #78549 - Tue Sep 18 2007 04:54 PM

Current Conditions in Palm Coast, FL
I lost power for a second there, winds are sustained around 25-30 mph. gusts around 35-40 mph. with some drizzle, Under a flood watch and a wind advisory, maybe a Tornado Watch later on tonight.
I see a better COC on the radar in Miami.. looks like it may outwit the 20 knots, but that remains to be seen.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Tue Sep 18 2007 04:55 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: allan]
      #78550 - Tue Sep 18 2007 05:27 PM

looks to me that the COC may have become enlongated some.... the showers to the NW have now moved over the center...so there want be any good way to watch the COC until morning... the radar beam from KAMX is shooting well above/over the surface swirl... no way to see how its doing at surface... there is still a spinn there... but the storms are still getting sheared to the North by the Upper Level low in the Eastern GOM. I think tonight we will see some strong storms blow up.... due to location of low, but with shear, once the storms reach over 20k they should get blown apart...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78551 - Tue Sep 18 2007 05:53 PM

I wouldn't put too much stock in the model runs right now since the system still actually hasn't developed into anything yet. We also don't know what the condition of it will be once it does emerge into the GOM. This looks to be setting up as one of those situations we will have to watch on a daily basis because there is NOTHING that is clear cut yet. We still don't know how strong the ridge will be or how strong the trough coming in from the west will be either. As others have posted...everyone along the whole gulf coast should be keeping tabs on our invest because at this point it's anyone's guess where it may end up.

Shawn


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 240
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Western Bahamas Buoy [Re: MikeC]
      #78552 - Tue Sep 18 2007 06:18 PM

blowing 35-45mph

pressure dropping like a rock.

http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=spgf1&meas=wdpr&uom=E


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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 278
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: MikeC]
      #78554 - Tue Sep 18 2007 07:18 PM


Reports from west end grand bahama island.

09 18 6:00 pm ENE 38 42 - - - - 29.79 -0.12 73.8 - 65.3 - - -
09 18 5:00 pm ENE 28 32 - - - - 29.88 -0.03 73.6 - 68.4 - - -
09 18 4:00 pm ENE 24 27 - - - - 29.89 -0.05 73.6 - 68.0 - - -
09 18 3:00 pm ENE 27 30 - - - - 29.91 -0.04 73.0 - 67.6 - - -
09 18 2:00 pm NE 24 27 - - - - 29.91 -0.05 72.3 - 72.1 - - -
09 18 1:00 pm NNE 30 34 - - - - 29.94 -0.02 73.4 - 73.0 - - -
09 18 12:00 pm N 25 27 - - - - 29.95 +0.01 80.4 - 75.4 - - -
09 18 11:00 am ENE 10 12 - - - - 29.95 +0.01 85.6 - 75.7 - - -
09 18 10:00 am ENE 11 13 - - - - 29.96 +0.03 82.8 - 75.7 - - -
09 18 9:00 am E 9 10 - - - - 29.94 +0.01 83.8 - 76.8 - - -
09 18 8:00 am ENE 9 10 - - - - 29.94 +0.02 81.9 - 75.4 - - -
09 18 7:00 am E 7 9 - - - - 29.93 +0.01 79.5 - 71.2 - - -
09 18 6:00 am E 12 13 - - - - 29.93 +0.00 80.1 - 74.3 - - -
09 18 5:00 am E 14 16 - - - - 29.91 -0.03 79.9 - 74.7 - - -
09 18 4:00 am E 13 15 - - - - 29.92 -0.04 80.2 - 73.2 - - -
09 18 3:00 am E 14 15 - - - - 29.93 -0.04 80.8 - 71.6 - - -
09 18 2:00 am E 9 11 - - - - 29.95 -0.03 81.1 - 72.5 - - -
09 18 1:00 am E 14 16 - - - - 29.96 -0.02 81.5 - 74.1 - - -
09 18 12:00 am E 17 19 - - - - 29.97 +0.00 82.0 - 73.0 - - -
09 17 11:00 pm ENE 10 12 - - - - 29.98 +0.00 81.3 - 70.5 - - -
09 17 10:00 pm E 16 18 - - - - 29.98 +0.02 80.2 - 73.9 - - -
09 17 9:00 pm NE 22 24 - - - - 29.98 +0.01 82.4 - 74.8 - - -
09 17 8:00 pm NE 14 16 - - - - 29.97 +0.01 83.8 - 73.2 - - -
09 17 7:00 pm NNE 15 16 - - - - 29.97 +0.00 84.0 - 72.5


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: Robert]
      #78558 - Tue Sep 18 2007 08:17 PM

well...i saw this in my email earlier, but didn't pay attention until i got back to the computer.... NHC issued a new TCPOD - 116*** this afternoon, after they had a 9:30 one... There sending up the Jet to do a SYNOPTIC mission... get data of surrounding area around the system... haven't seen the flight plan yet.... expect one in the morning though.. what i was interested is there is a recon mission schedule for low level invest NEAR 25.5N 88.0W AT 20/1800Z..., but the 1800 UTC map from TAFB is showing the low to move NW into the Florida coast


8:05pm edt TAFB discussion

LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE W ATLC BETWEEN THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS AND THE E COAST OF FLORIDA ANALYZED BY A 1012 MB LOW
NEAR 26N79W.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Sep 18 2007 08:26 PM)


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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: Robert]
      #78559 - Tue Sep 18 2007 08:21 PM

Well Seeing as though I have been extremly busy the past few days, I logged on to see whats going on and looks like there is definatly an Invest off the coast of Miami (to the East) and this seems to be what I was looking for since I have gotten down from NH to Miami. Call me crazy, but like I said in earlier posts, I want to see what a hurricane looks like.

Anyway:

Current conditions here in Cutler Ridge, Miami, Florida are as follows:
Currently 81 Degrees Farenheit
Dew Point: 70 Degrees Farenheit
Humidity: 68%
Visibility: 10 miles
Pressure: 29.90 in and steady
Winds: From the North East at 15 mph

10 Day Forcast calls for: Rain, Rain, Rain and more Rain, with a touch of scattered thunderstorms at least until next thursday (According to Weather Channel)

Currently: Scattered Showers and the wind tends to speed up every once in a while here, we had a few squals earlier, something that reminded me of a quick, fast paced rainstorm with wind associated. A few rumbles of thunder in the area, right now, nothing too bad.

I will continue to keep an eye on this Invest! This has got me pretty excited!


Here is a model track of Invest 93 from Skeetobite:

http://skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=93


I would be preparing for a possible tropical storm in the next few days if this Invest is what it looks to be on radar, and the possibility of another "Katrina" situation if this storm goes to the Gulf and to LA like models predicting

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England

Edited by StrmTrckrMiami (Tue Sep 18 2007 08:25 PM)


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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #78560 - Tue Sep 18 2007 08:29 PM

Well, Mr. JB over at Accuweather seems to be completely convinced that this is a Texas storm and that it could be stronger than talked about. I don't put too much stock in what he says because he seems to kind of be wishy washy alot. I'm guessing he thinks the ridge will stay strong enough for 93L's treck all the way across. I guess that remains to be seen. I bet anything within the next couple of days he will be changing that...that seems to be what he does and then turns around and brags that he was right about it...lol.

Shawn


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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #78561 - Tue Sep 18 2007 08:32 PM

Don't look to the models too much right now. None of them have any kind of real handle on this system right now. We should know a little more once the one flight checks out the air patterns and once this system actually makes it into the GOM. Models are useless right now...at least I think.

Shawn


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #78563 - Tue Sep 18 2007 08:36 PM

lol...never mind... the surface map from TAFB is showing the westward movement in the 24 hr surface map.... Guess the 1800utc map maker put the arrow the wrong way?

Here's the 24 map from TAFB
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW.gif
Here's the 72 hr map from TAFB
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif

**Note above links will update i think every 6 hrs**

For those surfers...
Wave/Wind forecast in 72 hrs
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl72_latestBW.gif

See ya in the water on Friday-Monday... I know St. Andrews state park will be busy!
www.mrsurfs.com **surf report for PCB*

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78564 - Tue Sep 18 2007 08:36 PM

Well than can you explain what looks to be going on with the radar? This looks to be a LARGE storm

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0S&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: debris]
      #78566 - Tue Sep 18 2007 08:53 PM

debris what are you referring to? What link are you using?

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


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debris
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #78567 - Tue Sep 18 2007 08:59 PM

gut feeling and this - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

the movement of everything in the gulf looks to be feeding this low.

that's all.... I'm no one really.


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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 278
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: MikeC]
      #78568 - Tue Sep 18 2007 09:09 PM

I think the bahama system has com a long way today we have pressure falling winds increasing, looks and feels like a the origions of a tropical depression. Cant wait to see what the overnight has planned for the sytem.

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: StrmTrckrMiami]
      #78573 - Tue Sep 18 2007 09:35 PM Attachment (288 downloads)

well the 00Z runs didn't really change much on the NHC model runs... although its starting with a 1010mb low... instead of a 1012mb from 1800utc.

scroll down to 93L
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/07091900

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Sep 18 2007 09:45 PM)


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78574 - Tue Sep 18 2007 09:39 PM

The latest Dvorak for 93L is 18/2345 UTC 25.3N 78.8W ST1.5/1.5 93L


Notcie the ST class not T


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast. [Re: Old Sailor]
      #78577 - Tue Sep 18 2007 09:50 PM

yeah i saw that ST reading... there is basically no convection near the low right now.. i have up level II nexrad data from Miami... you can see signs of where the CRC would be, but its hard to pinpoint... no convection... lets see what tonight brings.... also see now that the low is drifiting to the west or 280 at about 4 mph...

This may be the best loop for most all to read...understand... its a Base Reflectivity 1km Mosaic... all radars combined on base reflec. see little showers moving to the ssw off of miami... i would put the broad center just ENE of that about by 20 miles or so..... at this rate... this looks to me that this may come into the SE GOM... almost closer to the keys than as opposed to more up near Fort Myers, which i was originally thinking this afternoon... i am starting to think the low is going to pass close to the NHC..

**also looks like the GFDL is still having trouble with this area at the get go*** 00UTC

This Floater - Infrared Channel 2 Loop Shortwave IR ... good at seeing mid-low level at night... mainly FOG/mositure etc... but at the 0045 and 0115 images i think you can see a better defined area where the CRC is at, off the coast of Miami.. there is two small bands showing up.. both in nexrad data and sat... the broad area of cirulation would be to the ene of that i would think... **note the NWS FRONTS overlay i think is just a tad too far south**

Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Sep 18 2007 10:16 PM)


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