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#97L is actually looking very impressive today, but heading further out to sea regardless. Could pick up a name in real-time TBD...
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 38 (Barry) , Major: 314 (Michael) Florida - Any: 314 (Michael) Major: 314 (Michael)
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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: dem05]
      #78745 - Thu Sep 20 2007 10:51 PM

If there is almost 0% chance of it developing, why does the NHC spend so much time in the TWO on it, and indicate it could develop *at any time*?

Edit: There is no low whatsoever visible on the IR2 loop at that location.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Thu Sep 20 2007 10:53 PM)


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Hugh]
      #78746 - Thu Sep 20 2007 10:57 PM

To answer you question, the NHC has had great reason to investigate and take interest in this location for possible development today. We had an upper level low that became vertically stacked to the surface. Since tropical systems are warm core surface features and ULL are cold core features at the upper levels...This stacking from top to bottom allowed for the possibility that the ULL could transition down to the surface and convert from a cold core system to a sutropical (Hybrid warm/cold core system) to one that was tropical and based at the surface. Overall, this type of transition takes a couple days to become fully complete, so it requires special circumstances over time to get the proper stacking and to make it last long enough.

When recon was tasked to fly out there, and everyone (including me...please see earlier posts on this thread) were more interested in this sytem...it was due to this stacking. That said, late afternoon, the ULL has moved off to the NE and the sufrace feature decoupled. They are not vertically ctacked any longer since the surface feature got left behind. The overall synopsis changes to an environment where the ULL is in control, and now has the potential to provide less than fovorable conditions. After the de-coupling takes place, a lotof energy is lost from one system or the other...When that happens, the ULL always wins.


Edited by dem05 (Thu Sep 20 2007 11:10 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: dem05]
      #78747 - Thu Sep 20 2007 11:10 PM

Hugh... i been away from the forum for a bit... new tor for Franklin... watching it on level II... its wrapped in the feeder band.... but at first look i thought that spinn to the southeast of aplach. was upper level... hence the water vapor loop... but after looking at some other data... i think that this "may" be a new low trying to work it way down to the surface... atleast i think its more mid-level than i first thought... i think the ULL had beaten the surface low again thats sw of tampa... and i think we "may" have a new surface low trying to form under that rotation you see on tallahasse radar... **note too that like above post... i just checked on my grlevel program... the beam is shooting at around 12000ft where that circulation is showing up...** so that makes me think its more mid-level now than upper level... i post more in a bit... watching the franklin county system

****IF this is true... you basically start all over with the models...*** Still looking at a lot of data.

**also i am looking at around 28.58n and 84.45w**

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Sep 20 2007 11:16 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: dem05]
      #78748 - Thu Sep 20 2007 11:25 PM

Tallahassee radar is shooting the upper low at over 15000ft -- basically 500mb. Compounding efforts to find a low level center are many irritating points: the buoy nearest the storm failed in January and has had its replacement delayed 3 or 4 times now. Most of the other buoys in the region either don't offer winds, aren't currently reporting, or suggest a broad overall circulation. Visible satellite imagery was lost with the setting sun 4 hours ago. The last scatterometer pass occurred at 11z -- 7a ET -- on Thursday.

That basically leaves land observations and ship reports, as infrared satellite imagery is not going to pick up the surface circulation given the existence of the upper low. Attached is a ship data plot from coolwx.com at 02z; linked here is the 03z surface data plot. Whatever is there is broad, yes, but you can make the case for the surface low either moving in tandem with or redeveloping underneath the upper level low.

Given the development of convection near the center tonight and the overall tightening of the circulation as evidenced on WV imagery -- even at upper levels -- I certainly wouldn't go so far as to say that there is a 0% chance of development. It may not end up being the best-looking or most tropical of features, no, but a very real shot of subtropical or tropical development still exists with this feature. Whether it develops or not, the end result is likely to be the same -- rains and gusty winds along the coast, potential tornadic threat to the northeast of the system, and locally higher surf. I just wouldn't say that there's zero chance of development

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Clark]
      #78749 - Thu Sep 20 2007 11:40 PM

all.. just glanced at the TCPOD... they are going to send another umanned aircraft out into a system.. last one i think was in 2004.
REMARKS: AN AEROSONDE WILL DEPART KEY WEST AT 21/1900Z,
OPERATE IN THE STORM AT 3,OOO FT OR BELOW AND DEPART
THE STORM BY 22/0500Z.


Tell you one thing though... they are sending a lot of planes into this on saturday... well all day saturday if it developes.... **they all want be there at the same time!**

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Clark]
      #78750 - Fri Sep 21 2007 12:02 AM

Between Clark, Hunter, Hugh, the NHC Outlook...Probably been put in my place a bit for good reason. I think Clark would agree that the NWS has a slogan of track it til it is gine whe it comes to severe weather events and needless to say, 93L is not gone so 0% may be overzellous on my part. Reformation/restacking is definately not impossible either...I just decided that if something happened in that department, development might not have enough time based on cold core/warm core transition process...That's the specific point where I could be very wrong if something develops.

As Clark pointed out, there are not a lot of good night vision friends out there tonight. Our best one may be the shortwave...On it, I can still pickup a very...very weak signature of a low off of Tampa that the NHC comments on in the TWO. If everyone in the Florida Penninsula faced west and sneezed...it is small enough that it could dissipate or get shoved intothe "Hot Pocket" (Now that is just me trying to be funny here). That said, you decide, here is a link of the shortwave loop ( http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html ), notice the very...very small vorticity west of Tampa. Also notice how the overall flow is changing...The rest of the gang may be up on a possible reformation.

I hit the nail on the head with this bugger last night...but I get the feeling that it'smy turn toget fooled tonight. That said...I'll up the anty to a 15% chance of development...but I still don't think it has the right stuff and I'd be cuatious to go any higher. Anyhow and as well advertised...Name, no-name...the end effects will be the same. That said, prepare for and expect some showery/stormy weather from SE Louisiana to the North Part of Florida.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: dem05]
      #78751 - Fri Sep 21 2007 12:10 AM

Eh, I wouldn't say "put in my place" at all, as your comments are very valid to the situation! I just speak from experience on being burned in the past at times -- as well as the non-tropical effects from this one still being pretty influential despite the current state of organization.

Gonna be an interesting night in north-central Florida...

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Clark]
      #78752 - Fri Sep 21 2007 01:46 AM

looks can be deceiving, and like clark and others have noted... there really isn't any surface obs to go from... except when next recon arrives, which i think is not that to far off?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=tbw&loop=yes

the feeder bands just point inward to the ULL/MID low... and looks like its has won another round against that surface low that was west of Tampa... with the "new" one, that may have or not mixed down to the surface there that shows up on radar at 10-15k ft. SE of Aplach., Fl. If this is true... then my forecast would shift to the right some.... seeing some good lightning there is that northern band close to that circulation on radar.

I do see alot of dry over Florida being pulled up... but also there is alot of tropical moisture to being brought up from the south...

If this holds for another 4-6 hrs... then i would expect them to pop out watches and warnings, along the northern gulf coast, and upgrade this to atleast a Sub-Tropical system.... in the 5am adv.

Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 21 2007 01:52 AM)


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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78753 - Fri Sep 21 2007 02:05 AM

It's not going to take this system very long before it's right on top of land again.
Having said that, it is looking slightly more organized tonight. And you could
make the case that the center has reformed closer to the ULL based on Tampa
long range radar, sure looks that way anyways. I think the lack of time over water
though is going to limit it to a fairly weak tropical/subtropical storm at best.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1863
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78754 - Fri Sep 21 2007 02:11 AM

It's also not helping any that we are trying to dissect a marginal system during satellite eclipse.

Nonetheless, I'm on board with a good chance (better than 50-50) of a subtropical cyclone declared by 8PM Friday, and a somewhat smaller chance that there will be time for a more tropical transition to still occur within the next 36 hours or so.

Subtropical cyclones come in many flavors. The kind that NHC is typically more willing to officially recognize are those well-stacked ULLs that bore down to the surface and get something going.. and usually right in the smack middle of 'em. However, countless studies have shed light on a much broader spectrum of subtropical cyclones that many argue should also be formally classified. Best I can tell, 93 has been riding the line all along between the garden-variety, most widely-recognized brand of subtropical cyclone, and some of the more exotic. It's my -guess- that because 93 is so close to land, already producing the "right stuff" which we would most often expect to experience with a landfalling subtropical and even some of a tropical cyclone (these include: winds strongest in just about all quadrants well-away from the very center, squalls producing very strong gusts, tornadic squall once interaction with land, bands of heavy to very heavy and training - flooding rain) that even a small increase in organization would probably tip their hand for the bump.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: cieldumort]
      #78755 - Fri Sep 21 2007 02:14 AM

roger that, agree... i swear recon was schedule to be there soon, but i see no data that the flight is airborne yet... Unless there is a problem... NHC might have there hands full later in the morning....

FLIGHT THREE --TEAL 71
A. 21/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0410A CYCLONE
C. 21/0430Z
D. 28.0N 86.0W
E. 21/0500Z TO 1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

getting winds up near 30mph out there in the GOM

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 21 2007 02:19 AM)


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc:
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78756 - Fri Sep 21 2007 02:18 AM

It looks like an outerband is beginning to work its way here into Tallahassee. Supposed to have winds 30-40, we'll see about that. We can use the rain, though.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1863
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: flahurricane]
      #78757 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:25 AM

Those winds are entirely believable. I tell ya', this is simply an example of an unorthodox subtropical depression (and quite possibly even better very soon).

NRL now has 93 up at 30 knots and 1004mb. I'm betting this is about right, and I'm betting that we are now at the precipice of No Name, if not Jerry.

While on the subject of features on precipices, now by all appearances a healthy mid-level low with some DEEP convection has indeed formed in the Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua. If this persists much longer I would anticipate it getting tagged soon. I suspect that at least early on the general direction this possible Invest would most likely take is northward, as it would likely be tugged this way from the troffiness of 93L and 93s parent ULL.


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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: cieldumort]
      #78759 - Fri Sep 21 2007 08:09 AM

Looks like 93L has finally found ONE center. It still doesn't look like it will do much as far as strengthening but whatever is there appears to be heading almost due west at this point. If it continues that it will stay over water longer and might...just might...be able to be classified later today. However, it really needs to start wrapping storms around the center more for that to happen...in my opinion. I saw talk on other sites about the center had moved NW last night but I think it was more of the center relocated itself and now the ridge is pushing it west. For some reason I still do not believe we are completely out of the woods here in Texas as far as a lot of rain from this system because if it keeps on the almost due west course than it will run right into Galveston. I'm not seeing the weakness for it to turn more north yet. Any thoughts?


***UPDATE...IT LOOKS LIKE NRL HAS TAKEN 93L OFF THEIR SITE!!!!***

Shawn

Edited by OUSHAWN (Fri Sep 21 2007 08:12 AM)


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 312
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78763 - Fri Sep 21 2007 09:07 AM

Quote:

Looks like 93L has finally found ONE center. It still doesn't look like it will do much as far as strengthening but whatever is there appears to be heading almost due west at this point. If it continues that it will stay over water longer and might...just might...be able to be classified later today. However, it really needs to start wrapping storms around the center more for that to happen...in my opinion. I saw talk on other sites about the center had moved NW last night but I think it was more of the center relocated itself and now the ridge is pushing it west. For some reason I still do not believe we are completely out of the woods here in Texas as far as a lot of rain from this system because if it keeps on the almost due west course than it will run right into Galveston. I'm not seeing the weakness for it to turn more north yet. Any thoughts?


***UPDATE...IT LOOKS LIKE NRL HAS TAKEN 93L OFF THEIR SITE!!!!***

Shawn



93L is still there.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...s/microvap/dmsp

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie

Edited by craigm (Fri Sep 21 2007 09:09 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: craigm]
      #78764 - Fri Sep 21 2007 10:04 AM

TWO planes are in the system.... both NOAA and AF... wonder how close one will come to the coast... get a pic? NOAA is just getting to the "center" coming in from the SE... AFF has flown to the SW side... here's from AF... there on the way back to the "center"


355
URNT12 KNHC 211412
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL932007
A. 21/13:33:50Z
B. 29 deg 24 min N
085 deg 28 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 017 deg 5 nm
F. 092 deg 030 kt
G. 017 deg 005 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 23 C/ 459 m
J. 24 C/ 449 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/1
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 04IIA INVEST OB 10
MAX FL WIND 30 KT N QUAD 13:32:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

NOAA should be off point that sticks off from Port St. Joe ...pretty soon... BOTH planes are inward to the area. One at 5k and another at 1,500ft

Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 21 2007 10:18 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78765 - Fri Sep 21 2007 10:22 AM

thanks to recon
10L.NONAME

Expect adv. to come out soon... fixing to get another fix on center... both planes are on east side of center... NOAA looks to be heading right on in

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 21 2007 10:27 AM)


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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 117
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78766 - Fri Sep 21 2007 10:31 AM

So does this mean that it IS a tropical depression or storm at this point ?? I'm confused by what I'm reading here and what I'm reading from a local subscription weather service that put this statement out this morning........... (quoted in part)

"The tropical depression over the northeastern Gulf continues to become better organized and appears to be structured more like a tropical-type cyclone than a subtropical-type cyclone. Currently the depression has sustained winds of about 35 mph. Some slow
intensification is likely over the next 12-18 hours, and the depression should be upgraded to minimal tropical storm today. It is highly unlikely this storm will approach hurricane strength.

The depression is expected to move toward the west-northwest at 5-8 mph for the next couple of days and even possibly turn more westward after landfall.

Heavy rainfall is already spreading over coastal areas of North and Northwest Florida. Rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches will continue spreading westward along the northern Gulf Coast today and Saturday as
the storm moves toward landfall."

So is it is or is it aint


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: mbfly]
      #78767 - Fri Sep 21 2007 10:54 AM

I'm not sure what local weather subscription you are getting that information from, so I can't comment on it. I would say that your best bet is to follow official advisories from the NHC and the National Weather Service. Fox News said earlier this morning that this system could make landfall Saturday with 90mph winds, however, nothing that I've read from the two aforementioned agencies has indicated that this is going to happen.

That being said: The Governer of Louisiana HAS declared a "precautionary" State of Emergency and the LA National Guard has been activated. For more information on that, you can go to this site:
LA State Emergency Operations Page

Hope that helps you out!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: mbfly]
      #78769 - Fri Sep 21 2007 10:58 AM

The NHC has just came out with their first advisories on their website and they are calling it Subtropical Depression 10.

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