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Archives 2000s >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Trekman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 32
Loc: Fort Walton Beach FL
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: craigm]
      #78770 - Fri Sep 21 2007 10:58 AM

Just Issued....

Tropical Storm Warning in effect from Appalachicola, FL to the Mouth of the MIssissippi.

In response to Sub-Tropical Depression 10

*Just to clarify the Tropical Storm Warning areas:
"A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER... INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN."

hmm....two posts at the same time. Great timing

Edited by Colleen A. (Fri Sep 21 2007 11:20 AM)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: craigm]
      #78771 - Fri Sep 21 2007 10:59 AM

10 is up, but I think it is still no name. I quess we'll see in a few minutes if there is a Jerry.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1860
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: craigm]
      #78772 - Fri Sep 21 2007 10:59 AM

"No Name" only means that it is now a TD or STD.. it may, or may not, earn a name. Often this season we have seen systems go strait to naming, and "skip" the No Name phase, if you will. More typically, NHC catches the formations quicker, and we have them up without a name, first.

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: cieldumort]
      #78773 - Fri Sep 21 2007 11:03 AM

Interesting if STD...don't every remember seeing one of those in GOM...seem to be more of an Atlantic issue.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 117
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #78775 - Fri Sep 21 2007 11:10 AM

Well alrighty, then.................. I guess my sources were right at 7:30 this morning !

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 307
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78777 - Fri Sep 21 2007 11:15 AM

I stand corrected. 10L was in transition but 93L was still up on their site. I'm wondering if I have a different link to NRL that might update slower??
This was supposed to be a PM to Shawn.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie

Edited by craigm (Fri Sep 21 2007 11:17 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: craigm]
      #78778 - Fri Sep 21 2007 11:40 AM

can see the two centers now on KEVX... one small one and another broad one just to the south of the same one.... its like the ULL would spin down a small low... over and over... but there remains a broadier low to the south of it...

http://weather.cod.edu/cgi-bin/radarloop.pl?station=EVX&product=BREF1&loopdir=brefs

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Gulf of Mexico System [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78779 - Fri Sep 21 2007 11:52 AM

From the NO Times


"Gov. Kathleen Blanco issued a state of emergency Thursday night that provides local emergency preparedness officials with additional powers, including the ability to require evacuations of areas threatened by flooding and of residents living in FEMA trailers. It also sets the stage for a request for federal assistance. "


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1860
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #78780 - Fri Sep 21 2007 12:14 PM

Likely just a short matter of time before 10L is designated Jerry. Latest recon obs are finding surface winds out of the SSE,S, SSW already running up to 40knots. With convection continuing to fill in, and a reasonable warm core starting to show up in the data, we could see this transition close -enough to fully tropical later today to be labeled TS rather than STS.

IMHO, should this more complete tropical transition unfold within enough time before moving inland, it significantly raises the odds that, given enough time, 10L may strengthen further, with a not outlandish possibility of 10L becoming a hurricane - given enough time.

Tell ya what concerns me a little at the moment - a potential track generally westward, or wwnw, basically just offshore, in entirety, or for the most part. While there is not a lot of model support for this, there is a little, and that track is model-backed to some degree just by the model runs which take it inland, and then wnw. Should 10L not head inland, or well-enough inland, and then continue on a wwnw or w march, things could get ugly downstream. Should be watched. There have already been some big upside surprises this month.


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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: cieldumort]
      #78781 - Fri Sep 21 2007 12:22 PM

Funny...I was saying the same thing on the weatherunderground site about the center consolidating further south and moving on a more westerly track. I'm here in the Houston area and I'm NOT saying we are COMPLETELY out of the woods yet with STD10...soon to be Jerry.

Shawn


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Trekman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 32
Loc: Fort Walton Beach FL
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: OUSHAWN]
      #78783 - Fri Sep 21 2007 01:52 PM

Just in.....


...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
ACQUIRED ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO BE CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

--------------------
Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)

Emergency Administration and Management program at Northwest Florida State College


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Trekman]
      #78784 - Fri Sep 21 2007 02:08 PM Attachment (366 downloads)

the NOAA plane out there is finding about 60F temps at 5k feet... so along with sat... the transition to Tropical was coming... also Dewpoints are up there too... if we can get the winds now... we would have Jerry

ALSO looking at KEVX.. i think the TS is not to far off.. the center at the surface has mixed into the storms that i seen with a few lighting strikes... there are storms right there now towering very high... if NOAA makes another pass... (there south of PNS heading south..) we might find stronger winds... confined right there in the center....aka... the core is looking better to me...see if it hold!

this was the AF plane from this morning... see attachment... intersting flight path..(looks like a plane there)

**update... seeing winds around 40-45kts at about 5-6k ft on the left side of the "center"** **5,000ft** radar based from KEVX

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 21 2007 02:43 PM)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78785 - Fri Sep 21 2007 02:39 PM

Well the good thing is that 10 will run out of time. Even idf it took a due west coarse it is farther north now than the southern LA coast..based on the local radar here the ctr is probably just southwest of Panama City..with very slow movement...we have not had any weather yet here along the coast, and it looks like most of the squalls are east of the center..they have canceled the football games for most schools tonight though

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!

Edited by pcola (Fri Sep 21 2007 02:40 PM)


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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 117
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78786 - Fri Sep 21 2007 02:56 PM

Is now Tropical Storm Jerry.....

"Reconnaissance aircraft investigating the tropical depression over the
northeastern Gulf has found that the winds have increased to tropical
storm force within the system; thus the depression is now designated as
Tropical Storm Jerry with maximum winds near 40 mph. "


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: mbfly]
      #78787 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:05 PM

Where are you seeing this??? I cannot find any designation as a TS on any other site

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: WeatherNut]
      #78788 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:07 PM




Where are you seeing that info ? Can you post a link cause our EMA office doesn't have that info yet

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 117
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: WeatherNut]
      #78789 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:07 PM

Just out from a paid subscription weather service..... a reliable source. I'm sure the NWS and NHC will announce it at their next update.




Edited by wxman007 (Fri Sep 21 2007 03:56 PM)


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La Nimo
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 42
Loc: st. pete beach
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: mbfly]
      #78790 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:17 PM

Still a TD....

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: La Nimo]
      #78791 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:20 PM

can you post the whole text on the upgrade?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Subtropical Depression 10 Forms in Gulf of Mexico [Re: WeatherNut]
      #78792 - Fri Sep 21 2007 03:23 PM

I'm not seeing it either, and the recon reports I'm seeing don't support tropical storm classification. I see one SFMR wind of 32kt, at 2:25p ET, and a whole bunch in the 25-28kt range. In the most recent one that came in as I was typing this -- I see 5 at or above 30kt, including a 33kt report. (Note that these were all taken between 3:04 and 3:09p ET, after the post.)

I'm not saying that the report isn't true, I'm just saying that the paid subscription service may have jumped the gun -- especially given that it's been 20 minutes since the post and there has yet to be an update from the NHC on their webpage or on their data feed. It's likely that this will be Jerry, if it isn't already...but I think someone was jumping ahead of themselves unless they have some data I'm not seeing.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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