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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
      #78966 - Tue Sep 25 2007 06:35 PM

8:30 PM EDT, 27 September Update
Lorenzo has been upgraded to a hurricane, yet another TD to Hurricane storm in the Gulf this year, following Humberto. Hurricane Warnings are up for the section of Mexico that will likely see landfall.

2PM EDT, 27 September Update
Tropical Depression 13 becomes Tropical Storm Lorenzo.

11 AM EDT, 26 September Update
Karen is now near hurricane strength with 70mph winds, 98L is giving the keys a lot of rainfall now, and more will enter south Florida Later.

Karen's projected track and strength lend it more toward a continued out to sea scenario.


10 AM EDT, 26 September Update
Another Wave, 98L is now being tracked, and it's right off the Florida Keys, it is not very likely (since its mostly an upper level feature), but possible for this system to become a depression before it makes landfall in Southwest Florida, and cross the center of the state. It should then exit and move away from the US, however there may be a few things that could complicate that track, so it deserves to be watched a bit more. 98L will mostly be another rain event for Florida.

Tropical Storm Karen is a bit stronger this morning, and is moving West around 14MPH, it is still expected to turn northward and be sheared aggressively and is most likely no threat to any land areas.

TD#13 may become a tropical storm before it makes landfall in Mexico.

97L is likely not to develop at all.

Original Update
Tropical Depression Thirteen has formed in the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to move very slowly southwest and make landfall on the Mexican coastline as a Tropical Storm Friday night. Because of it's slow movement it may get stronger than forecast. One to watch for a while, at least.

Elsewhere Tropical Storm Karen continues its west northwest motion, but really has not gotten better organized today, the system still has a very weak core. Although very recently more convection has started to fire, so it may see some strengthening tonight Karen is a very large tropical storm size wise, but it still isn't very intense.

It is expected to move generally west northwest and then curve out to sea well before the Windward islands. It has about a 33% to become a hurricane before getting too far, but most likely it will remain a Tropical Storm or weaken below it.

97L in the eastern Caribbean still hasn't got more organized, and conditions are less favorable for development at present. Those in the islands will want to continue to watch it in case it does, but it appears it won't be too much a threat.

Another area in the Bahamas and approaching South Florida is interesting to watch, but won't have enough time to do much as it moves over South Florida and the keys except bring some rain. After that it may be worth watching, but chances are it too won't amount to much.

More to come later. Lots of activity in the tropics, but again, nothing pressing.

Southeast Composite Radar
Miami, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Key West, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Martinique Radar
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Lorenzo Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Lorenzo


stormplotthumb_13.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Lorenzo (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Lorenzo (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Lorenzo

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Lorenzo
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Lorenzo -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Karen Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Karen


stormplotthumb_12.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Karen (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Karen (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Karen

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Karen
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Karen -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

97L (East of Caribbean Wave) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97L


stormplotthumb_14.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 97L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

98L ( Florida Wave) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


stormplotthumb_15.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #78969 - Wed Sep 26 2007 01:06 AM

Am trying to figure out if things are getting busy or quiet.

Just when sub tropical systems seems dead, then suddenly back, then gone. Gulf roation, wait....convection, nope - looks like shear. Yep, strong shear but wait, a depression..... or more, or less. Waves dieing, then flaring back up, then gone, then back again. Karen getting sheared, all models point poleward and a lock to be a fish spinner, but then again...... ; and wait a minute, is'nt that the remnants of Dean retrograding eastward from Central America??? No doubt why I feel like I really need a cigarette, and I don't even smoke!

Well, scitzofrennic season ( musta spelled THAT one wrong LOL ) that it is, am attempting to maintain some focus on Karen. I still see a very large envelope system ahead of a significant easterly surge, barreling westward. I know what the models say, and I will not deny that a deepening mid Atlantic trough would have to deteriorate the overall low to mid level ridge in place, but until I see Karen up around 14N, will continue to believe she'll gain more longitude than currrent models forecast . Other brief observation is that the 0Z GFS run, at about 144 hour and out, is starting to show me a decent U.S. eastern seabord mid level ridge. Now, I am not going to "guestimate" the 500mb heights that far out, but certainly a farther west tracking Karen would certainly pose a different picture given that dynamic. If her forward motion were to slow down, I would be certainly less bullish on such a possibility. I do recall many a season where come final days of Sept., mid Atlantic tropical waves would appear "stuck in mud", and a late E. Atlantic storm would often get sucked straight toward the Azores. The 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season, is it El Nino? La Nina? Perhaps just Muy Loco?! Can't wait to read up on the "hind-cast" analysis on THIS year.......

Until then, I'm just gonna sit back and keep one eye out for Felix - just to be sure HE'S gone, and not coming back!


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico [Re: weathernet]
      #78970 - Wed Sep 26 2007 01:58 AM

lol... think they call it "2007, the season with no reason"... sure am curious why there have been more Cat. 5 these last few years, then in a long time? Anyway... 00Z pkg... some of the globals want to take that area of storms of SE Florida and up the east coast, before next trough swings by.... this looks more and more possible....one of thers models even build in a ridge to the north, which i would think old home town of Wilimington, NC. might be in for a weak system if its developes and moves up the SE coast.? Nothing has developed yet, but that could change. Stay tuned!

As i write, watchin Recon in the GOM, just off the MX coast... haven't seen anything significant out of the data on TD 13.. Vortex drop on first pass... 1008mb (no change)... said moderate convection 30nm from center.. highest flight level winds about 30mph... there flying around at 1,500ft

Also am noticing too that most long range globals lower the pressures in the western carb. and GOM.... with an atlantic ridge building at little farther north then we have seen this summer? Well see what happens...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Sep 26 2007 02:09 AM)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78972 - Wed Sep 26 2007 03:11 AM

TD13 looks on satellite like its already dissipated--i dont see any rotation at all now to the south of the "center"

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico [Re: Rabbit]
      #78973 - Wed Sep 26 2007 03:26 AM

13 has hardly dissipated... sort of just an optical illusion with regards to any apparent lack of turning.

Here's a snippet from the very latest recon. Pressures are dropping steadily and smartly tonight. Increasing surface and low level winds, along with more banding convection will likely soon begin to follow.
Quote:

Estimated Max Surface Winds 23.4KT (26.9mph 43.3km/h) *
Misc Remarks: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT. 2ND PRESSURE CENTER 306DEG/10NM GOOD RADAR CURVATURE E THRU NE QUAD
Date/Time of Recon Report: Wednesday, September 26, 2007 1:21:00 AM (Wed, 26 Sep 2007 06:21:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 21° 06' N 095° 01' W (21.1°N 95.0°W) [See Map]
Surface Winds Were: Not Estimated
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 0nm (0miles) From Center At Bearing 0°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 24KT (27.6mph 44.5km/h) From 199°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 31nm (35.7 miles) From Center At Bearing 131°
Minimum pressure: 1007mb (29.74in) -- Extrapolated




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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico [Re: cieldumort]
      #78974 - Wed Sep 26 2007 03:33 AM

wow it didnt take too long for me to be proven wrong--the satellite is out of the eclipse and there is a rather large convective blowup right over the center

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico [Re: weathernet]
      #78975 - Wed Sep 26 2007 04:01 AM

Well Karen's on a nocturnal tear tonight. NRL has bumped her to 45 knots, and by the looks of things, this looks solid, if not understated, already. 13 doesn't yet have the winds to follow, but by my own best Dvorak guess, and with the latest from recon, I would say Lorenzo may be found there by 11AM. 97L is back on the map, pulling a T1.0 again per last SSD. Checking buoy data within 150 miles of the estimated "center" of 97L strongly supports the continued existence of a fairly well-developed lower level center. Pressure's falling there a tad. Might be around 1011 mb low at this time, but on an improving trend again. On again - off again. Nature of these features, to be sure... but with a gradual incline to more on than off, as it is.


Feature cooking around SoFlo I am starting to buy into a bit more. Then there's also yet another very respectable easterly wave, this right on the heels of Karen. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if Invest tags go up on either or both of those two sometime today. This is starting to look a lot like the Ghost of Christmas's past, if not yet the present.

As for landfall potentials, 13 is land-locked. It is going to have to impact someone, and most likely it's going to be Old Mexico, but Texas might not write it off just yet. If Karen isn't north of 14.5N by the time she is 50W we need to start questioning the model runs so far. One thing for certain regarding her future track.. if tonight's any indication.. Karen probably won't be a lightweight, shallow system out there. 97 is probably heading into the GOM and/or Florida Straits, development or no development. SoFlo disturbance probably gets ejected out to the NNE or NE... may be a potent Stream Runner (tm) if it gets its footing together. I'm very interested in seeing if the wave behind Karen should follow Karen, in her wake.

Lots and lots on the map. Makes ones eyes bug out a bit.


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 246
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico [Re: cieldumort]
      #78977 - Wed Sep 26 2007 07:24 AM

Local weather update -- Here in SE Florida waves of torrential rain have been developing this morning and moving onshore. I wouldn't be suprised if I'm sitting under (future) invest 98L.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage

Edited by craigm (Wed Sep 26 2007 07:35 AM)


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punkyg
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: sanford, florida
Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? [Re: craigm]
      #78978 - Wed Sep 26 2007 09:15 AM Attachment (352 downloads)

I was looking at karen and spotted something interesting
i have it as an attachment.
it looks like karen is starting to form an eye.
so right now i'm thinking karen is stronger then she is said to be.

Edited by punkyg (Wed Sep 26 2007 09:16 AM)


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 246
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? [Re: punkyg]
      #78981 - Wed Sep 26 2007 09:39 AM

We now have 98L.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...s/microvap/dmsp

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? [Re: craigm]
      #78982 - Wed Sep 26 2007 09:48 AM

98L looks like more rain for Florida. Hope some of it gets into the Lake. I notice that 97 has shifted substantially; any thoughts?

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? [Re: punkyg]
      #78989 - Wed Sep 26 2007 10:33 AM

Karen still has a weak core, that is not an eye, that is dry air in the center of the system. (See Here) Karen is less organized than it appears, but it is organizing more this morning.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? [Re: MikeC]
      #78991 - Wed Sep 26 2007 10:57 AM

Karen did get up to around 70MPH estimates, still not an eye, but that's about where it would be. It looks like it will hit Hurricane Strength before the shear gets to it. It had a 1/3 shot to do so!

TD#13 still is a depression.


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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? [Re: MikeC]
      #78992 - Wed Sep 26 2007 10:58 AM

I thought this was very interesting from the 11:00 TD13 Discussion...

Global models forecast a weak mid-level
ridge to build eastward slowly from northern Mexico over the Gulf
of Mexico. This should eventually result in a southwestward to
westward motion of the tropical cyclone toward the coast of Mexico.
Although the consensus of the track guidance models indicates the
abovementioned motion...there are significant differences amongst
the individual models. It should be noted... however...that all of
the dynamical models keep the system offshore through 36 hours.


You notice how is says "weak" ridge and it looks like there may be some doubt over at the NHC about what will really happen with TD13 if you read between the lines.

Shawn


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? [Re: punkyg]
      #78994 - Wed Sep 26 2007 11:31 AM

Your attachment is likely showing the incipient eye, IMHO. While there was some dry air mixed in with the core early on, it appears to have been worked out, now. The placement of the soft spot in the visible image you provided matches up quite well with the eye feature that can be seen in the 1241UTC Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit Composite image. (Link) Furthermore, anaylsis from CIMSS shows the warmest pixel location, as well as the extrapolated center, to be right about there, as well. NHC notes these developments to some degree in the 11:00 AM.

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? [Re: cieldumort]
      #78995 - Wed Sep 26 2007 11:41 AM

hmm... 98L.... was thinking this morning, something would spin off that area of storms last night...looks like the low level vortice is drifting to the WSW? There is a good amount of shear running to the NE over it..

Gulf Vis.
Centered on Key West

Not sure if this will last/survive or a new low will form under that convection off Florida, SE coast.

Thought this was intersting... the UCF heads NE with system, then takes a hard left into Jacksonville, I don't think that will happen...
Time Sensitive

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Sep 26 2007 11:55 AM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #78996 - Wed Sep 26 2007 12:24 PM

thanks, great link.. appreciate it

this shows both areas well
im currently in the one covering mb with strong rain...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir2.html

its a developing system and hard to say but to the left of it that wv has diving air and it's not done so.. as long as that holds up development would be slow

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Explanation Please [Re: LoisCane]
      #79002 - Wed Sep 26 2007 01:16 PM

If you look at this link:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

You can see a stream of clouds from Karen moving SOUTH EAST to the trailing disturbance. Is Karen getting energy or giving energy?


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Explanation Please [Re: Beach]
      #79003 - Wed Sep 26 2007 02:04 PM

I don't think Karen is giving energy to the system... nor taking away... i would think those low line clouds, while they look like IV lines going to the disturbance... i woud think its more of a temperture inversion/dewpoint line... where on side is cooler/drier then the other... being pushed by the NE flow.. cause a set/line of Stratocumulus clouds to form... i would on think right now that the mid to upper levels would be something that would affect the disturbance....

watching recon on TD 13... didn't see that higher of flight level winds.. they made the first pass... should be tunring back to center soon... notice that the surface center is 5nm from flight level center... so still some shear...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane? [Re: LoisCane]
      #79004 - Wed Sep 26 2007 02:27 PM

Miami radar looks to be showing a new center forming SE of Homestead barely offshore. There is eastward movement in the keys and westward movement in MIA. I cant confirm any west winds as of yet, but pressures at all the area buoys are starting to fall. Many stations in the area have reported 2mb pressure drops in the last hour

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since

Edited by WeatherNut (Wed Sep 26 2007 02:41 PM)


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