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Archives >> 2007 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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For October Its Busy Out There
      #79151 - Wed Oct 03 2007 11:14 PM

Thursday 10/11 Update -- 4:30pm ET
The National Hurricane Center has designated the unsettled area southeast of Bermuda as the season's 15th tropical depression. It is expected to move generally toward the north and east over the next several days before being absorbed by a frontal boundary. On the whole, the basin remains full of convection but low in terms of organized features.

Update - Friday, 10/05, 11:30PM EDST
Invest 90L moved inland over east Texas earlier today and Invest 92L has been dropped. Invest 91L located at 12.7N 48.9W at 06/00Z. 91L has been stationary for the past 12 hours and remains very disorganized under westerly shear. 14L, the remnants of Melissa, barely recognizable at 24.6N 53.5W at 06/00Z.

Newly identified Invest 93L located at 20.5N 67.5W at 06/00Z has some chance for slow additional development. Movement probably to the west northwest or northwest.

The former 92L is now an elongated trough of low pressure that should rapidly transition to the eastern Gulf tonight, but any development chance is pretty slim.
ED

Original Post
No tropical cyclones in the basin - but lots of potential areas of interest. The remains of Melissa (14L) were located at 21.6N 48.6W at 04/00Z with winds of 30knots. Convection keeps firing, primarily to the north of the circulation center, and some minimal intensification is possible. The system is currently moving to the west northwest at 14 knots.

Invest 90L located in the northern Gulf of Mexico near 26.8N 87.8W at 04/00Z with winds of 25 knots. System has not developed today and at times convection has been on the wane. Current movement is to the northwest at 8 knots. Modest shear and proximity to the Louisiana coast should limit further development - but it still needs to be monitored.

Invest 91L well to the east of the Windward Islands near 9.6N 42.0W at 04/00Z with winds near 25 knots and movement to the west at 12 knots. System is still not well organized, however, some slow development is possible over the next couple of days.

Finally, Invest 92L is east of the central Bahamas. The center has been relocating to the southeast over the past 4 or 5 hours and a weak low level circulation may be starting to develop near 24.6N 71.5W at 04/02Z. Sustained winds probably near 25 knots as convection fires primarily to the east and south of the center. Again, slow development is possible, but with the constant shift in center location, a future track is not easily determined. This one is truly a wait-and-see system. So we will.
ED

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Edited by MikeC (Tue Oct 16 2007 11:31 AM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #79153 - Thu Oct 04 2007 01:44 AM

don't look at the CMC 00Z run I hope like all year that its wrong! But i do say i am having a hard time with seeing how the ridge is going to set up next mon-wed of next week off the NE US. Not sure i by the run from GFS on 92L at 00Z... straight across to the direct westsouthwest.... going to be an interesting weekend, thats for sure! It seems there is a flop in the models from night to day (00z to 18Z)... just seems like there is bad data or some bad coding going on in a few of the models... or maybe i just seeing things? You'll see evening runs show one thing... then mid-day runs show some different. I thought it might have to do with Upper Air data, but am starting to rule that out some. Will see what 12Z brings in the morning.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
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Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Oct 04 2007 01:51 AM)


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weathernet
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #79154 - Thu Oct 04 2007 03:22 AM

Looking at early a.m. 0Z data comin' in. Boy! I see whatcha mean regarding CMC. Canadian wants to lay down a Cat 4 on Duval Street! Well, saw that and immediately assumed we here in S. Florida were safe and moreso, probably a great weekend to go fishing! But then, saw both GFS and NAM pretty much in agreement on what would looks like a T.D. in the Florida Straits in about 48 hours or so. Given other model continuity, I pretty much have a fair amount of confidence in GFS, at 96hr. or less. Lately NAM has trended systems too deep, while GFS more shallow. Most interesting however was the 0Z GFDL run on 92L. Again, assuming some model conformity, perhaps an even better tool for tropical cyclongenesis. GFDL looks to place a slow moving Tropical Storm just southeast of the Florida Keys in about 54 hours, with a coarse heading closer to 270 rather than WSW. A slow moving and broad system such as GFDL depicts, would'nt shake too many coconuts off the trees, but sure could drop about 6"-12" of rain over large areas of S. Fla.

Given all this, and the upper anticyclone over the Bahamas, am a little puzzled as to some appearant lack of "mojo" thus far. Would've anticipated we'd be seeing a more unified consolodation of convection by now. Granted, only today have we started to see some pressure falls in the Bahamas, but if we are to see some development out of this Bahamas system, than would expect a fairly significant upswing in this systems overall cloud structure within 24 hours. Perhaps no evident low or mid level turning by then, but certainly a greater consolodation of convection perhaps indicative of continued slow pressure falls.


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neospaceblue
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: weathernet]
      #79155 - Thu Oct 04 2007 08:18 AM

The GFDL has this very near hurricane intensity by Monday.

--------------------
I survived: Hurricane Bonnie (1998), Hurricane Dennis (1999), Hurricane Floyd (1999), Hurricane Isabel (2003), Tropical Storm Ernesto (2006)


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ftlaudbob
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92L [Re: weathernet]
      #79156 - Thu Oct 04 2007 08:21 AM

A anti-cyclone seems to be forming over 92L.This could get very interesting very quickly.Conditions still look good for development.I would say people from West Palm down the the Keys should start to watch this system very closely.Alot depends on where the High is and where the LLC forms.We don't want any surprises!

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Artemis
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Re: 92L [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #79157 - Thu Oct 04 2007 10:48 AM

I'm a weather novice and I live in West Palm Beach. Could you please explain what an "anti-cyclone" is? I went to Wiki and I don't understand how it could affect an existing weather system such as 92L. It was just defined as it affects land or over water, but nothing about how it could change a weather system. And, just how quickly could things change, and how could this change affect the weather here?
Thanks-'preciate it!


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: 92L [Re: Artemis]
      #79159 - Thu Oct 04 2007 11:42 AM

I am not a weather 'expert', but I will give it a shot. An anticyclone is an area of high pressure in the upper atmosphere. To have a strong tropical system requires (among other things) a SURFACE area of LOW pressure and an UPPER area of high pressure. It has to do with moving heat from the ocean surface upward and developing strong convection. Many tropical systems have well developed lows at the surface, but don't have good high pressure aloft to help develop a stronger system. This one has the high pressure above, but lacks a strong low at the surface at this point. I may get corrected on the fine points, but that is the way I have been taught this (PLEASE correct me if I am wrong....I HATE to be wrong )

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
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cchsweatherman
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Re: 92L [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #79160 - Thu Oct 04 2007 12:51 PM

Taking a look at 92L, there is no one defined center of circulation associated with this disturbance, so it is very premature to look at any forecast models regarding the track of this system. This is one of those rare cases where the future intensity of the system can be better predicted than the future track. No one has a great handle on this system, not even the computer models. We will have to wait and see what develops throughout the day with 92L for better signs of the future development and track of this system.

(Lets leave the issuing of 'Weather Alerts' to NHC, NWS and Meteorologists. Certain alarmist material was removed.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Oct 04 2007 11:34 PM)


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scottsvb
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Re: 92L [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #79161 - Thu Oct 04 2007 01:51 PM

Correct that we dont have a clear idea on this invest.. Looking at data we have and model heights around the region show that this may continue to be broad as pressures also fall in the NW carribean due to rising heights off the midatlantic and western Atlantic. With a ridge off the east coast...a general W movement will take place. After it gets near the Yucitan a general consolidation may take place. A strong upper low is forecasted to move out into the plains by early next week and head towards the great lakes and ohio valley.. This may enforce a N and then NE movement of whatever is down there as the westerlys drop to near 25N by late week. Still this isnt a forecast cause we dont have a handle on the whole situation including the invest. In the near term with pressures slowly falling around the whole region...1 exact low pressure wont be the main player as we might have a few weak lows until the broad area gets west of the FLA straits and Cuba.

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allan
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Re: 92L [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #79162 - Thu Oct 04 2007 02:16 PM

Actually there is a circulation, but no convection.. however, my eyes may be tricking me or a low may be forming around 72W and 24N.. I see a circulation, we'll see what happens in the future.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

Also, IF and this is a big if.. if the storm gets into the Western Carribean and under the anticyclone (shield), it may become a more serious threat.. but we'll have to see what happens, it's seems like that twist I see on the visible is moving southwest.. again, we'll see what happens later.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Rasvar
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Re: 92L [Re: scottsvb]
      #79163 - Thu Oct 04 2007 07:05 PM

I have to agree that 92L will be a long term project that may still be four or five days away from substantial development. The idea of a system camping out around the Yucatan or Bay of Campeche and then getting kicked out to the NE is my long term concern if this system does develop.

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Old Sailor
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Re: 92L [Re: Rasvar]
      #79164 - Thu Oct 04 2007 07:15 PM

There are no models supporting a NE run of 92L after BOC not of them as of now.. CMC did it for one run..


Dave


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scottsvb
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Re: 92L [Re: Old Sailor]
      #79165 - Thu Oct 04 2007 09:44 PM

no models are showing a NE movement cause them runs are out too far and its based on data and evolution of the atmosphere. Cant always go with what the models say but I do agree with them showing a digging upper level low and trough ....but will it capture the disturbance and how strong will it or the disturbance be...there are many questions. Just cant go by model runs.

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weathernet
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Re: 92L [Re: Rasvar]
      #79166 - Thu Oct 04 2007 10:10 PM

I believe that the earlier noted low level swirl slowly moving westward towards S. Florida, was the "embrionic stage" that the northerly shear was quick to seperate. The area of the elongated trough, south of Cuba, though limited in convection, does show a little more rotation, as well as better parked under the middle of the upper high. Hmmmm, perhaps GFS has had a pretty good read on this system after all. Any significant development of the area in the Bahamas will at minimum seem to be an uphill battle.

As for any other systems, or remnants of other systems, or even 2nd cousin twice removed remnants of previous ghosts of earlier systems, I think that we may soon be moving to that part of the season where a much smaller window will exist for significant tropical systems to develop. Of course, that may not bode well for some of us, as systems stew and propogate up from the W. Caribb. over the next 6 weeks, but at least the current status quo no longer looks to be "that" threat, at least not at the moment.


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cieldumort
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Re: 92L [Re: weathernet]
      #79167 - Fri Oct 05 2007 01:09 AM

What a difference 24 hours can make in the tropics. And what a difference a little ol' shear and dry air can make, as well. By all appearances, the switch in the Atlantic just got shut off, or generously stated, the dimmer knob got adjusted way, way down. Divert all power West Pac, Mr. Scott! Warp speed Cat 5! And don't give me any mouth about those dilithium crystals! Getting past the boldly going where no bad puns have gone before, it seems increasingly likely, now, that 90L is battling far too much dry air to overcome the moderate shear and non-tropical baggage that has plagued it all along, 92L has just found out the dirty truth behind running into the dirty side of a strong upper level high, 91L hit a wall of hurt even before it could dig its way into the grave..yard, and Melissa.. Melissa.. talk about phantom ghosts!

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HURRICANELONNY
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Re: 92L [Re: cieldumort]
      #79168 - Fri Oct 05 2007 07:56 AM

Don't give up yet on 92L. The cyclonic turning around 23n68w is moving in a general wsw direction. It will be approaching less shear and could become a depression by this weekend. As for the models. I never pay attention to them till something forms. When there is a broad low they tend to pop storms anywhere and everywhere. If it forms this weekend then I'll look . So wait and see it could happen this weekend.

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Beaumont, TX
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #79169 - Fri Oct 05 2007 09:01 AM

Dry air prevented 90L from having a chance to develop. Good for Texas. Strange watching that "ghost" rotating towards shore.
With 92L, it is a wait and see. Shear has been a huge factor this season.


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madmumbler
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Re: 92L [Re: cieldumort]
      #79170 - Fri Oct 05 2007 10:05 AM

Quote:

Divert all power West Pac, Mr. Scott! Warp speed Cat 5! And don't give me any mouth about those dilithium crystals! Getting past the boldly going where no bad puns have gone before,




*ROTFLMAO* I will admit, for a "busy time" (4 invests posted, one of which is a "remnant" come back to life like one of Wes Craven's zombies) it sure is quiet. It's like there's a whole lot of nothing going on right now.

What kind of serious chance does 92L have though, long run? It looks like on water vapor it's sucking in a bunch of dry air (if I'm looking at the floater correctly). Or is it one of those systems where we need to wait and see what happens when/if it makes it into the GOM?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
(my 2009 guess - 14/7/5)
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Lee-Delray
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Re: 92L [Re: madmumbler]
      #79171 - Fri Oct 05 2007 10:24 AM

Posted from wunderground's Dr. Jeff Masters:


"Disturbance 92L east of the Bahamas
An area of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough of low pressure (92L) near 22.4N 73W, in the southwestern Bahama Islands, has diminished. Wind shear of 20-30 knots has blown away nearly all of the heavy thunderstorm activity near the surface low pressure system, which has now reformed about 200 miles to the south of where it was last night. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed some westerly surface winds over the southern Bahamas, which would aid in the formation of a new surface circulation under the heavy thunderstorms there. However, wind shear is still 20-25 knots today, and I don't expect any development until 92L can move into the Western Caribbean where wind shear is lower. This may occur Sunday. Another possibility is that a surface circulation just offshore of the Florida Keys, visible as a swirl of low clouds on this morning's visible satellite loop, could begin to develop. The computer models still indicate the possibility of a tropical storm forming in the Western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico 2-7 days from now, but are much less insistent upon it. Upper air conditions are expected to be very favorable for tropical storm formation over the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for the next seven days, but nothing will form if we don't get a disturbance with some spin to it entering the region. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on call to investigate the Western Caribbean on Sunday, if necessary."


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saluki
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Re: 92L [Re: madmumbler]
      #79172 - Fri Oct 05 2007 10:24 AM

I give 92L a fighting chance if it holds together until it reaches the Straits of Florida/Gulf/western Caribbean. It looks like there's simply too much shear over the Bahamas to allow for much development at the moment.

Edited by saluki (Fri Oct 05 2007 10:27 AM)


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tekkrite
Registered User


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Re: 92L [Re: saluki]
      #79173 - Fri Oct 05 2007 11:52 AM

I'm certainly an amateur observer but this morning there's a cyclonic swirl developing at the north end of the Bahamas mess, around 23N 68W. You can see it at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200792_sat.html (click on Animate) and even better in the more real-time http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html at lower-right. Really I don't see a lot of shear affecting it at this point. But I'm not sure it's lower-level--have to admit I haven't figured out how to tell an ULL from a LLC.

This has been tagged "The Season with No Reason," and that's a good one. An alternate label might be "The Year of Shear Luck." I haven't see any explanation yet for why all these strong westerly shear winds in a moderate La Nina year. But living on the Indian River in Melbourne it's been great to see!


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: 92L [Re: tekkrite]
      #79174 - Fri Oct 05 2007 11:53 AM

That's a upperlevel low. No developement will take place with that.

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craigm
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Re: 92L [Re: scottsvb]
      #79177 - Fri Oct 05 2007 03:47 PM

Looks like things are finally starting to get going with 92L. Pressures are starting to fall and wind speeds are up at bouys in the area.

http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046
http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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punkyg
Weather Watcher


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area north of peurto rico [Re: craigm]
      #79178 - Fri Oct 05 2007 04:25 PM Attachment (249 downloads)

Hi every one,
ok i know what yall thinking "hey thats 92L", but its not its a new area to watch. 92L is off to the west of this remember 92L don't have convection anyways this area is starting to show a swirl north of peurto rico and to east of it is another one on vis and i'm starting to think this has a chance, but i worried about the shear which is about 25kts over our developing system, but until its badly sheared or runs into some major dry air i'll still be watching it.

Edited by punkyg (Fri Oct 05 2007 04:27 PM)


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


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Re: 92L [Re: craigm]
      #79179 - Fri Oct 05 2007 06:25 PM

This new "ITCZ" draped over the Greater Antilles, from the Leewards, westward to Cuba, then south into the W. Carib., is really taking some getting used to. Kidding of course, but you know the 'ol expression......"crap or get off the pot" ( PG version ); Well the practically daily ups and downs of these "tropical microclones", are driving me crazy. No, don't bother looking THAT one up either, I just coined it LOL. Of course once again, the area north of Puerto Rico shows some promise, but then again, and just as I am writing this........YEP! There goes the convection?! Well, perhaps will fire up again later tonight, but sure is looking a little more healthy today and this evening. Latest 18Z run of GFS does initialize a low in the vicinity, and very slowly deepens it, as it barely drifts west, right up to when a deep mid-Atlantic trough drops SSW'ward just in time to grab it. Not sure if I buy into that though. Either will finally and actually see some consistant development here, and then looking at the 500mb, cannot see how this would not nearly immediatly start moving generally westward. If so, than would be 5-10 degrees farther west than progged by GFS in 48 to 54 hours. On the other hand, should this just prove to be another transient burst of convection, than would be a moot point anyway.

Be interesting to see if we even have "status quo" 6 hours from now, along with any re-bursting of convection in the same general locale, north of P.R.................... no bets here....


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weathernet
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Re: 92L [Re: weathernet]
      #79180 - Fri Oct 05 2007 06:36 PM

footnote to my previous post :

Am thinking that perhaps an approx. centerpoint around 20.8N and 69.5W; had previously thought slightly S.E. of there around 20N/67W, but upon greater consideration now think otherwise. Certainly not willing to go out on a limb and conclude either as a LLC; perhaps multiple mid level vorticities at the present time.

Edited by weathernet (Fri Oct 05 2007 07:19 PM)


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Beaumont, TX
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #79181 - Fri Oct 05 2007 07:34 PM

The low (90L) is moving in around High Island, Texas, the same spot as Humberto did. A little rain here. Thank goodness this thing did
not have the conditions it needed to develop. Good old dry air. Rest of the tropics look like a big mess. It will be interesting to see if that major
that is predicted comes to be.


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Old Sailor
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #79183 - Fri Oct 05 2007 09:16 PM

There are 4 investiages showing all readings on Dvorak of TOO WEAK, think that is a record for 4 invest and reading to weak.


Dave


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Hugh
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: Old Sailor]
      #79184 - Fri Oct 05 2007 09:25 PM

To use what may seem like a silly analogy, but seems appropriate today...The Atlantic Basin looks alot like a crowded highway... busy enough to cause all kinds of wrecks. I have to wonder in this case, if all of the systems are going to compete with each other, and prevent development from any of them.

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craigm
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: Hugh]
      #79187 - Sat Oct 06 2007 08:12 AM

Got up this morning and checked the Navy site. 92L is gone and 93L is up
in the same area???Any suggestions?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...s/microvap/dmsp

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage

Edited by craigm (Sat Oct 06 2007 08:19 AM)


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allan
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: craigm]
      #79188 - Sat Oct 06 2007 08:41 AM

Actually that new invest is farther east and gives it more shear to contend with however, it still could develop. I'm interested in the Western Carribean this morning, nice flare up with a weak low, this should be invest 94L shortly.. all these invests and now where to go lol. X92L is actualy south of Cuba, may absorb into that low in the CW, that blow up last night was impressive, but for development, it had to stay to be tagged.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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cieldumort
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #79189 - Sat Oct 06 2007 03:44 PM

Saturday afternoon and this is what is up there

Atlantic
94L.INVEST
93L.INVEST
(92L removed)
91L.INVEST
90L.INVEST
14L.MELISSA

This is about as much "stuff" as I've ever seen being tracked at one time without a name or two popping out: Five plus a recent removal. (For all practical purposes 14L is now no more developed than any other invest, of course)

Frankly, 91L almost looks good to go. One of those out-there systems that is being downplayed a little because it is under some high shear. An alternate view would point out that it is often the more highly-sheared systems that-- if they are otherwise intact -- are inherently stronger than would be expected. A T number of 1.0 for this system is likely unrepresentative.

Other than 91, which has had solid form to greater or lesser degrees for several days now, I can't hone in on any other one "Invest," as they rearrange, reform, recenter themselves seemingly just as quickly as they get put up. It would almost be just as reasonable to put up Invest 95 ... and then issue subsets (95a, 95b, and so on) at this point. There simply hasn't been any consistent consolidation among these other features of any significance, so far.

Until we see one of these subset invests really take, my eyes are on 91 for holding the best chance of earning Noel. Next to that, possibly another (newest) convective low level swirl, just to the east of 93L, that does not yet have an Invest tag on it... (93L being around 21.6N-68.6W per NRL) while this latest vortice is located around 21.3N 66.5W


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allan
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: cieldumort]
      #79190 - Sat Oct 06 2007 05:11 PM

95L reminds me of a certain storm that developed in the same area as a Hurricane about oh say 2 years ago
94L is deffinatly one to watch.. I knew they would tag it after I saw a nice broad circulation this morning. It's almost like deja vu with Vince (95l) and Wilma (94L).. although 94L has some shear (not much) but some to contend with, I am watching this one very closely. Shear is about 10 knots which makes it favorable at this time.. probably the reason why it is flaring up nice convection at the wrong time.
93L to is flaring at durinal minimum which tells me that it could pull something by tommorow
91L is a Karen wannabe, it has convection around the center, but not strong convection, if durinal max can blow this up, something deffinatly could form.. I agree, this has the best chances besides 95L, that could be a named storm at ANY given time due to winds over 40 mph.. just needs to get more tropical I guess. 91L may hit some very unfavorable shear soon.

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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cieldumort
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: allan]
      #79191 - Sat Oct 06 2007 05:35 PM

This -is- getting ridiculous, but yes, I've been watching missed Stargate Atlantis episodes with my significant other this afternoon while following what has just now been tagged 95L. To be candid, I'm a little impressed by their decision to add it - not that I don't think it inappropriate, because, frankly, it's already a subtropical storm, but just because until just the past few hours it has not been as classic as, say, pre-hurricane Epsilon, et.al. circa 2005. On the other hand, 2007 is going down in the books as having a record number of officiated subtropical cyclones, so, perhaps Noel is not lurking tonight down in the Caribbean, Noel may be en route to (Ireland)! I wonder how the Irish would feel about their first Noel.

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Clark
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: cieldumort]
      #79192 - Sat Oct 06 2007 11:24 PM

Cyclone phase diagrams on the feature NNE of the Azores:
12z CMC (all from today) -- http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/07100612/10.html
18z UKMET -- http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/07100618/3.html
12z NGP -- http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp/fcst/archive/07100612/6.html

Satellite image: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/images/xxirmet7n.GIF (look at 47N/23W)
The current (0000 UTC Oct 7th) image suggests a very tropical-ish appearance to go along with the cyclone phase space diagrams suggesting a subtropical or barely tropical structure.

This is most likely a case for a potential post-season upgrade. NHC is watching it, but unless this persists at such a high latitude -- a good 700km or so north of Vince from 2005 -- it's not likely to get classified now.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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cieldumort
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: Clark]
      #79193 - Sun Oct 07 2007 03:49 AM

In addition to the cyclone phase diagrams and overall appearance on IR, scats have shown a pretty good tendency for the strongest surface winds to coalesce about the center. I think so far the missing ingredient to push this over into a Jerry-esque tropical storm continues to be convection, not that it is not present, just that it is not present in sufficient depth and quantity, likely owing to the relatively cool SSTs. Still, at the very least, all of the other factors rather strongly argue for a real-time or post-season upgrade, IMHO. 40-45 knot STS works for me. Would be wild to get a good 6-12 hour burst of deep convection in the center before the clock runs out. From the look of where the wet bulb temps around 500mb are probably running, this doesn't strike me as impossible, however unusual. Ship report a long and lat or two from the coc logged 998mb at 0600UTC, and NRL currently lists the storm as having a minimum central pressure of 995mb. Overall, more and more 95 is getting a fuller Jerry look & feel to it. Seems like a strong contender for Noel to me.

91L post-eclipse looks dog-gone good. My mut is ready to give it two woofs up, even if SSD isn't. If Chirpa were a betting dog, and he is, he might easily put up a few milkbones for 95 & 91 this morning to get bumped to 15 & 16. Speaking of SSD, here's the latest:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
07/0645 UTC 20.9N 66.1W T1.0/1.0 93L -- Atlantic Ocean
07/0645 UTC 15.3N 52.7W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic Ocean
07/0600 UTC 48.8N 21.7W ST2.5/2.5 95L -- Atlantic Ocean

Not too shabby. And what 94L lacks in convection it certainly is making up in creating a broad area of substantially lower pressure, a very broad surface circulation, and strangely-positioned convective clusters. I'm not sure how one gets a Dvorak read out of that soup, but it could get more than a bit interesting should it come to a boil.


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allan
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #79194 - Sun Oct 07 2007 08:46 AM

94L is looking like a TD but Tnumbers are at 1.0 and I believe numbers have to be up to 2.0 for TD status, though it's looking good and if the process holds or continues, we may have a TD by 5 p.m.
93L was most likely an unncassified TD last night, as it moved into 20-30 knots of wind shear, the low is broad once again, very short lived and hopefully post season analysis will confirm this.
95L should have been classified yesterday as STS Noel at 5 p.m. due to the winds over TS force and having "sub" tropical characteristics, It's looking a bit like late October of 2005.
91L may look good, but the actual low level center is northwest of the convection which means it is getting sheared badly.
Melissa still lives, should have been upgrded back to TD status a few dasy ago in my opinion.. for all the people who said this seasonw as quiet.. look again
so far..
13 storms
3 unclassified
4 hurricanes 1 unclassifed (Karen)
2 major

and La nina continues to keep the season active through this mobth.

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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cieldumort
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: allan]
      #79196 - Sun Oct 07 2007 01:16 PM

Aww. Looks like 95 won't be getting Noel'd. Kind of sad, in a way, as it would have been more than a little novel to track Noel as he raced off for the North Pole this morning. Still has a fairly respectable subtropical structure, but is being drawn into and absorbed by the more dominant extratropical features up around 50+N. Lots and lots of data to argue for a post-season addition, this one.

91 was pulling it off overnight, my pooch insists at any rate. For just a few short hours, that LLC was generally nuzzled back under some very deep convection. But alas, the shear terror of all that upper level wind has chased the convection away, once again leaving a bare-bones swirl of 91 fully exposed.

The naked truth of this October looks as if we took October 2005 and mixed it up in a blender with 2006. Lots of "would if I could" features out there, but none getting any help so far from the current environment they find themselves in.

Taking another shot from the hair of the dog that bit me, I guess it would be silly not to mention how much better 94L looks today. Interesting tentacle that reaches out from 94L to old 90L which is now well-inland, just now exiting northern Oklahoma.



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Brett Addison
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: cieldumort]
      #79207 - Wed Oct 10 2007 01:29 PM

Seems like 94L will be exiting back into the gulf maybe later today if it keeps moving at the same speed and direction as it is now. This would still give 94L a chance at regenerating since the circulation is still intact. However, with increasing wind shear in the area, the storm may still fall apart completely and not do anything like most of the invest so far in the Atlantic. Actually this is the most likely scenario though I do predict it will become a depression in the Bay of Campechie when the circulation moves into that area late tonight. Wind shear will prevent it from getting any stronger than maybe a week TS and will probably tear the system apart.

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cieldumort
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: Brett Addison]
      #79208 - Wed Oct 10 2007 04:45 PM

Looks like 94 still might try something, eventually. There are also a few other weak swirls spinning about within the trof draped ENE and NE from extreme southwestern Bay of Campeche all the way into the western Atlantic. 94L still has a tag on it, even though it is now over land. Seems reasonable to keep that tag and floater going, with it still intact, generating numerous showers and storms, and lots of possibilities to pop back out over open water. Nonetheless, the fronts draped W-E to 94's north, and with very & dry stable air behind them, should preclude much of any northward component for at least another day or two, and even if it does begin tracking north, then it might encounter an extremely hostile airmass. For now, to me it looks more like a no threat, rain-flood threat, or maybe just maybe a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean, Bay of Campeche and/or out to sea threat.

In all actuality, if I was looking for Noel right now, I would be paying attention to how NHC operationally handles the non-tropical low quickly acquiring tropical characteristics out near 32N 15W.


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Rabbit
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: cieldumort]
      #79209 - Thu Oct 11 2007 10:32 AM

seems that NRL has added 96L on the nontropical system

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cieldumort
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: cieldumort]
      #79211 - Thu Oct 11 2007 01:39 PM

New invest up. There exists a drawn out potpourri of convection associated with surface to mid-level troffiness in the western Atlantic into the Caribbean, with numerous surface to mid level swirls, some more pronounced than others, with x94L having been the most prominent. NRL is now tracking 96L in the central Atlantic, around 30N 53W. This feature was already analyzed by TPC as a 1011 mb low center Wednesday. Movement is generally east this morning. NRL estimates winds at 25 knots, which both the former pressure estimate and max sustained wind may be conservative, based on ship reports which suggest pressures have been down around 1007-1009 and max winds closer to 30 knots. This system is very nearly, if not already, a depression, although shear has been an inhibiting factor.

NHC discusses it in the 10:30 TWO:
1. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE
IN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.


The non-tropical low which was rather quickly acquiring some tropical characteristics in the far eastern Atlantic I mentioned yesterday has remained generally symmetrical, cold-cored, and has given up much of its convection which existed Wednesday. It was already being tracked as an Invest by SSD, although NHC had not assigned it a number for NRL. Nothing much doing there so far today.


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cieldumort
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: cieldumort]
      #79212 - Thu Oct 11 2007 04:00 PM

Invest 96L is now TD15. Winds estimated at 30 knots and pressure at 1011mb, per NRL.

(LINK)


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Lee-Delray
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: cieldumort]
      #79213 - Thu Oct 11 2007 05:41 PM

TD #15 will be a 24-36 hour fish spinner, never making it to TS strength. Interesting the NHC keeps talking about the activity near Cuba, but says nothing will come of it.

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cieldumort
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #79214 - Thu Oct 11 2007 06:07 PM

ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD (In knots)
SHIP S 1800 29.10 -50.50 60 180 190 35.0

Ship report from 1800Z within miles of the coc was reporting sustained winds out of the south at 40 mph. Just a very slight increase in organization would probably force NHCs hand at naming 15 in real-time. The window for such further intensification is forecast to close as shear turns around and starts to beat on 15 from the north, and by default, if for no other reason, substantially increases in intensity as the cyclone travels along a forecast northeasterly heading. However, should 15 continue to proceed in a more due easterly direction the net shear over the system could be less, and 15 has already shown a propensity to fend off shear quite well, beating out numerous model runs which anticipated decoupling by now.

As for the Caribbean, we probably need to see something really start turning at the surface before NHC takes more notice. The only notable turning at the surface is still well inland (94L). For now, it's an impressive trof, with occasional transient lows.


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cieldumort
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: Rabbit]
      #79215 - Fri Oct 12 2007 03:48 AM

The non-tropical low in the far eastern Atlantic has now been tagged, 97L. Just picked up an ST 1.5 from SSD, which is not surprising. Initially, 97L was getting some T 1.5s on Wednesday, but has since shown to be more of a symmetrical, cold-core type hybrid. This feature has been drifting southwest, over progressively warmer waters, and remains in a relatively low shear environment.

Recent T numbers from SSD
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
12/0600 UTC 28.7N 18.7W ST1.5/1.5 97L -- Atlantic Ocean
12/0545 UTC 30.2N 49.5W T1.5/1.5 15L -- Atlantic Ocean

Worth noting that post-eclipse 15L is running T2.5 from CIMSS ADT, with a Raw T of 3.0 (Shear scene type) and a center temp +10.6C.


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allan
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: cieldumort]
      #79218 - Sun Oct 14 2007 02:48 PM

Very quiet in here for 2 invests out there..
98L and 99L are both on the Navy
x94L becomes 99L as 98L is tagged for a closed low with little convection.

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cieldumort
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Re: For October Its Busy Out There [Re: allan]
      #79219 - Sun Oct 14 2007 06:59 PM

99 (birthed from x94, no doubt) continues in the tradition of its predecessor, embattled with dry land. Hard to not have been more impressed with what was a hybridizing extratropical low that formed farther northeast along 94s associated trof (this low centered roughly east of Bermuda at the time), and dropped some pressures to about as low as 998 or so, while bumping winds up above 40 knots. Later, what was left of TD15 had gone on to merge with the same trough, and it's a little surprising no invest tag went up on that location, although the waters ahead are quickly cooling, and shear was certainly not light, overall.

Looks like 98 has had a little more going on at the surface, and despite very strong shear, has been able to pop an occasional shower or two right in the coc. Some feeble but obvious attempts at some banding still seem to be holding on. If shear lessens up a bit before this one moves inland, I think maybe just maybe something can actually take. Not a lot of there there in either one, just yet. Par for the course for mid Octobers.

It would be helpful should not only NRL be experiencing processing delays today, but additionally, neither Invest has a floater on it yet. Ships and buoy data in the region are sparse to nonexistent. For most of today, conventional satellite seems to have been the best divining rod we have had to work with on these two.

Interestingly, if either of these guys can pop, about half of the tentative model guidance suggests that a turn northward into upper Mexico-Texas, or even northeast of there, could become very possible.


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danielwAdministrator
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Over Night Surprise?? [Re: cieldumort]
      #79221 - Tue Oct 16 2007 12:19 AM

While there isn't much mention about the broad trough in the Western and SW GOM.
I did find a few honorable mentions in the various discussions tonight.

TPC has even generated a model run on the poorly ( at this time ) organized system.
Latest Model Run on the GOM Low

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
607 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2007

FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 16/0000 UTC THRU OCT 19/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...( 8PM EDT Monday to 8PM EDT Tuesday)
... E CNTRL GULF COAST...

WHILE QPF(total rainfall amounts) DETAILS ARE NOT EXACT...ALL MODELS GENERATE SGFNT (significant)RAINS INVOF(in vicinity of) THE E CNTRL GULF COAST AS RETURNING PWS(preciptable water amounts) IN THE 2.25 INCH RANGE ARE LIFTED BEHIND AN EVOLVING WARM FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER LVL(level) JET STREAK SWINGS BY CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING.
TREND IN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WHICH HAS STRONG SUPPORT FM(from) THE CANADIAN GEM (model) WAS TO BE FASTER WITH INITIATING ACTVTY(activity) ALONG THE GULF COAST.
FOR NOW LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE GEM FOR THE FCST(forecast) WHICH ALLOWED HEAVIER PCPN(precipitation) TO ADVANCE A LITTLE FARTHER NWD(northward) THAN THE GFS OR NAM WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO SOME
FEEDBACK ISSUES. WHETHER THE VERY HEAVY GFS AMTS(amounts) ARE CORRECT OR NOT IS SPECULATIVE..BUT THE MSTR AVBLTY(moisture availability) AND DURATION OF THE ACTVTY(activity)
SUGGESTS THAT AMTS(amounts) COULD APCH(approach) THE 6.00 TO 7.00 INCH GFS TOTALS AT
LEAST ON THE VERY LOCALIZED SCALE.

DAYS 2 AND 3... (Tuesday night thru Wednesday night)

...GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST...
WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.... THE REMAINS OF AN OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN ALONG WITH THE ENTRAINMENT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WEST OF THE
YUCATAN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO PARTS OF THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN SOUTHEAST.

THE NAM AND CMC MODELS WERE CERTAINLY OVERLY DEVELOPED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST GULF COAST... WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY FAVORING A WEAK OR ALMOST NON-EXISTENT SURFACE LOW REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TOWARD THE START OF THE PERIOD.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THIS SYSTEM EXISTS OR NOT...OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND A FAIRLY SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE INLAND THROUGH ALABAMA AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

edit: While the system isn't a purely tropical system at this time-1210AM EDT. The combination of the purely tropical airmass, northward moving warm front, and other upper atmosphere disturbances appear to be setting the stage for a Heavy Rainfall event.

Per the HPC maps. The Eastern Gulf Coast is the Coastline east of Appalachicola,FL
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/images/us_bndrys2_print.gif

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1002 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2007

...VALID 03Z TUE OCT 16 2007 - 00Z WED OCT 17 2007...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

CNTRL GULF COAST...

SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING CONVECTION TRYING TO ORGANIZE IN AN AXIS
OF HIGH PWS SURGING NWD TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTS TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PCPN AMTS ALONG THE GULF COAST...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
SOME GRID SCALE ISSUES. GIVEN THE LATEST SATL IMAGERY AND FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGRMNT...BELIEVE THERE WL BE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS
SPREADING NWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHRT
TERM PCPN AMTS OF 1-2" AND ISOLATED TOTALS APPCHG 5" POSSIBLE
ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST THIS PERIOD.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml


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cieldumort
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Re: Over Night Surprise?? [Re: danielw]
      #79222 - Tue Oct 16 2007 03:50 AM

If it weren't for all the dry air and nearby high shear I would say 99L is on the West GOM Fast Track to pull it off. But, unlike last month, times have changed. Still, looking at the post-eclipse loops tonight, particularly the IR2, it is hard not to argue that 99 has been drawn north and is attempting to recenter about a new plot near 22.5N 93.5W, but this does not appear to be firmly rooted in the surface at this time.

Should 99 become a TC before long, as it might not have much time before it gets burried in its own new plot under the mounds of shear and dry air, it could draw away some of that rich fetch of moisture heading into the southeast. Ultimately, more and more models that have locked on to it have moved it northeasterly, anyway, and hopefully this brings more welcome rains to the region, regardless.

In the mean time, what a nice slug of deep tropical thunderstorms just off the coast in the northeastern GOM!


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cieldumort
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GOM Invest 99L slowly getting more organized [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #79223 - Tue Oct 16 2007 11:23 AM

There is little room left to doubt that Invest 99L has become slightly better organized than just 12 hours ago, and considerably better organized than 24-48 hours ago. NRL has just bumped up the estimated winds from 20 knots to 25, and NHC has changed the wording of the most recent TWO from "nothing expected" to the following:

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TODAY OR
TOMORROW BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE IN THE
AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD.



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Thunderbird12
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Re: GOM Invest 99L slowly getting more organized [Re: cieldumort]
      #79224 - Wed Oct 17 2007 11:29 AM

99L is now inland. It was nothing much of tropical significance, but it will enhance the tornado threat over TX/LA/AR as it gets absorbed into a very intense mid-latitude system developing over the central U.S..

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Re: GOM Invest 99L slowly getting more organized [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #79225 - Wed Oct 17 2007 11:59 AM

nice little low off the central east coast of Florida, however with the front back over central US... Upper level winds don't give it much of a chance... which it should move north a bit then out to sea with the front coming to the east coast... Sounds like Sever wx. season is kicking in now. Here in NW Florida, were still about 20Inches behind in rainfall this year... YIKES!

10 Days away from my 1 yr anniversary of the F-0 Intercept.. haha... Looks like might get another chance in coming days!

Tropics look to be shutting down out to the east in the far atlantic.... Upper level winds are screaming over the region....

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Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Oct 17 2007 12:03 PM)


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cieldumort
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Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
re: 99L Inland & ehancing severe weather threat today [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #79226 - Wed Oct 17 2007 01:46 PM

99 - and it's associated trough - was a very prolific wind-maker while approaching the coast. Ship report from very near the center of circulation late overnight came in at 34 knots, and an oil platform with an anemometer at around 400 feet was blasted by hours and hours of sustained winds between 40 and 67 mph, with a pronounced wind shift noted in its obs during passage. Pressure in 99 looked to have dropped to about 29.65 or so, before coming ashore.

Now inland, it has already had enough spin of its own, combined with a few slugs of moisture, friction and daytime heating, to pop one tornado in Buna, Tx. this morning (inland from the uppermost Tx coast.) SPC has had this to say about it in the Day 1:

LASTLY...ANOTHER ZONE OF ENHANCED SVR THREATS WILL EXIST FROM THE
UPR TX COASTAL REGION NWD INTO LA AND AR ASSOCD WITH A PLUME OF RICH
TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NWD WITH A GULF IMPULSE. MODEST LOW-LEVEL
WIND/SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH
TIME AS THE SRN PLAINS UPR JET PUNCHES EWD AND LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW
RESPONDS. HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM THE UPR TX COAST/WRN
LA AT MID-DAY AND REACH THE MID-SOUTH/OZARKS BY TONIGHT.


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