HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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this is fuzzy territory, but alma is still 'there' as far as i'm concerned. there is a closed low now off belize that was on alma's previous track... it may not be "exactly" alma, but is at least a spin-up vestige that formed offshore in it's broader circulation. interesting now, because it meets the general criteria for a tropical depression. i'm sure the has some kind of 'not enough organized convection' argument against calling it a depression, but the yucatan is pretty much going to get just that. it doesn't look like the kind of situation where this thing will quickly spin back up, but it wouldn't surprise me too much.
do think they called it too early. this is likely to be another case where there are no more advisories, but the 's post-analysis later will pencil in a significantly longer track for the system months later. remnant lows are pretty much depressions when they move back over water and have any convection to speak of, because gusty winds start to mix back down to the surface.
anyhow, the whole mess is keeping right of the forecast track pretty effectively. don't be surprised if it goes in higher in the yucatan and comes back out more over water in the bay of campeche. on another note the storm has moved faster than anticipated in general, so it wouldn't be surprising if it really does turn southwest and finally go away, rather than hovering near the yucatan for days on end.
HF 2309z30may
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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I agree. The circulation seems to have tightened throughout the day and convection is developing much nearer the coc. Tomorrow may prove interesting.
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Michael
PWS
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Yep,
Looks like we have our first invest of the season
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
shows 90L
It's a sloppy mess, but it could spin up fairly quickly.
I guess this also means it's a separate entity and not a continuation of Alma.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
Yep, It's a sloppy mess, but it could spin up fairly quickly.
I guess this also means it's a separate entity and not a continuation of Alma.
Yes, it's pretty "ugly." Also, the proximity to land may prevent significant development before landfall. We'll have to wait and see if the system makes it to Campeche in any shape.
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Michael
PWS
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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We now have invest 90L but the models show it to going west for now .... Only 45 miles off of Land.
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weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
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The has issued a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement on this system. They are pretty much saying what we have been saying; the system is too close to land and will likely move westwards, bringing heavy rains to Central America...again.
Link to STDS: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/302348.shtml?
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Possibly somewhat to the chagrin of a few forecasters, tonight Invest 90L has remained virtually stationary for the past several hours, IVO 17N 87W, and as such, rather than increase its interaction with land, it has increased its interaction with warm Caribbean waters.
It is very noteworthy to also point out that the upper-level anticyclone which was very favorably situated over 90E/Alma, has shifted eastward almost in some unison with that former tropical storm, and is now placed just about very favorably atop Invest 90L.
Over the course of the night so far, has bumped 90L from 1006 mb and 25 knots to 1005 mb and 30 knots.
Over the course of the last three hours, deep convective banding is bursting out just to the east of the LLCC, with some filling in attempting to take place just to the center's west, as well, despite being impeded by some interaction with the Yucatan.
Finally, a recent ship report just came in that is certainly eye-catching:
SHIP 0300 UTC 18.80N 86.10W East wind at 44.1 knots
Pressure 29.80 and rising by 0.06
air temp 78.8 water temp 80.6
If verified, that's a 51 mph wind probably at about mast-level. The fact that the pressure had been rising suggests that the ship may have been traveling away from the center of lowest pressure and/or (and I suspect more likely) both that -and- higher pressure is pinching from the north/northeast, creating a potent gradient zone in the NE quad.
We've seen situations similar to this before that sometimes, when combined with continued improvements in the convection and internals, it is all that is required to force the hands of an upgrade. (Torrential downpours and gale-force winds from a tropical low so close to land and all.. even if it isn't completely, undeniably, 100% "there," at that exact point in time.)
I'll have to edit those earlier remarks, as a helpful 0245 UTC ASCAT pass along with the most recent three frames of various sat loops suggest that this most recent burst of convection looks to have possibly bowled the whole mess westward... based on all of this, the best I can tell now is what could be the primary LLC is now just offshore of Belize and still rolling generally west at the moment.
Edited by cieldumort (Sat May 31 2008 02:43 AM)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well, 1st post of the season i guess  90L has got the attention of the guys at with another STDS issued. Makes for an interesting read as they suggest the system could become a Tropical Depression before landfall. Gut feeling is that it probably already is. Satellite imagery shows a decent system, with abundant deep and strong convection located in the eastern semi-circle, while land interaction is limiting development in the western semi-circle. Visible imagery when it become available in the next hour or two should give a better handle on the structure and organisation too.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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maybe this is a bit of a presumptuous guess... but you know they're busy butting heads down in miami over whether this thing is alma or tropical depression 1A. as far as to whether it has the required organization... i mean, duh. guys, just write an advisory saying 'egads.... alma lives!', and be done with it. it's not any weaker than when the last one was written, and surely a good deal more organized. also, got more than a couple models saying that it's a viable system when it gets bay of campeche side, too.
it can't be helping that the mexican radars are down (surprise surprise) in the area... and of course nobody had the forethought to task recon for today, because why in the hell would the system keep moving nnw, and/or redevelop offshore? i mean, honestly, didn't we keep drawing the official track to stay on land? the NERVE.
no eyes down there, just an obvious low pressure with a bunch of banded deep convection around it. can't look and see if they're doing anything either, because that product only starts updating when atlantic hurricane season officially starts... tomorrow.
honestly, the cracks me up sometimes. give them a brand new system and they'll pretty consistently name it when it starts looking like *coughcoughalmahm* does. give them a pacific system declared dead on the atlantic side, and you know they're having a big row over what it is. it's obviously alma because you can pretty continously track the low/rotary envelope and attribute it to pacific storm alma. calling it arthur is a big stretch when they do things like call a fragment of hurricane 'ivan' again when it sweeps back into the gulf 4-5 days later. but you know somebody else is saying that the vorticity shifted and merged with offshore troughing induced by an atlantic wave, so it's obviously a new system... even though that wave was interacting with alma.
if it wasn't for doggone central america, making this so danged hard.
HF 1148z31may
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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I agree with HF.
90L is clearly - to anyone who has watched the genesis of the system - the remnants of Alma. It clearly has a LLC, with 35mph winds (according to the latest info I've found). Therefore, technically, it IS Tropical Depression Alma, whether the wants to recognize it at this time or not. As I understand the naming rules as most recently modified a few years back, since Alma weakened below T.S. strength, if this system were to strengthen, it would be renamed to Arthur - but it's over land already, so that is not going to happen, unless it survives the passage over the Yucatan and emerges into the BOC or the GOM, and then re-strengthens.
IF that occurs.. and I'm sitting firmly on the fence as to whether I believe it will ... I believe will rechristen the system TD One-A (although they don't use the -A designation publicly in the Atlantic basin, this would be a good use of it, in the sense that this is really an addendum to TD One-E )... and if it were to strengthen it would logically be given the name Arthur.
Having said all of that, the circulation does seem to be holding itself together over land this morning.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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DarleneCane
Unregistered
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Very murky picture to even try to define.
Rules say when a storm crosses over it gets a new name so it can't be Alma2 the sequel but Arthur.
That may be the only clear cut thing known for sure right now.
If it gets named and doesn't disolve and reform again somewhere else.
Water Vapor shows movement north a bit blocked despite the fact that it doesn't really seem to want to move west for now or just possibly bobble around a bit stationary until a doorway more northerly (or NNW) opens up. Though easy money says it gets into the BOC this time of year.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/sat.irW1_an.gif
Great view of just how hard it is for the or anyone to be sure what this system is going to do if anything.
Perhaps it is not as important where it came from as much as where it is going?
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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My guess is this will continue to move mostly west, which it is doing now, and will never get beyond a TD classification before final dissipation in Mexico in a couple of days. gets of the hook for the rename.
It is clearly the same system to those like me who rely on visual evidence. If it isn't ,it is only because of a meterological tecnicality.
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doug
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Yes, it looks like it is moving directly westward now. Unless it gets a northerly component, it will never get to the Bay of Campeche.
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Michael
PWS
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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I would have of thought this was a weak Tropical storm as of earlier this morning. Thunderstorms near the COC.. pressure of 1003mb and sat fixes and ships reported 44kt winds. So I really dont know why they didnt want to issue TS warnings for belieze and south of cozumel. Maybe they figure since it is making landfall this afternoon...but that's a stupid reason.
With the blocking high over Tx-La over the next 4-5 days...this will meander over southern mexico and the BOC.
Edited by scottsvb (Sat May 31 2008 11:19 AM)
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allan
Weather Master
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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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This was at least a Tropical Depression before it made landfall in Belize. The winds were gusting over 40 mph on some bouys, because it was so close to land, they didn't pull the trigger. However I argue on that and so does other people. Anyways, I don't know if I see another surprise convection blow up in the BOC for one reason. The waters are warm but the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is very low in that area so a major blow up like last night would be less possible. We'll see what happens
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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weathernet
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Well, just to throw in my 2 pesos worth....; I cannot help but believe that if we had the same data, along with the same sat. presentation, AND if we were to re-insert this same system 400 miles ESE of the Virgin Islands in mid August...., that we'd be at extreme minimum be calling this a tropical depression. It is for that reason that I try to avoid the theoretical ( or more correctly "political" ) discussion as to what we are actually looking at. I do believe that at minimum there is more than ample arguement to classify this as a tropical depression. That said, than comes the added debate many have already considered as to whether or not this is Alma, or simply "the son of Alma". Once again, no one can argue that it is of the same "envelope" system. Less definitive may be whether or not from a unique vorticity center from a different trop. wave or not. Even that though, is less currious to me as to if the current system has one center or possibly two.
As the center was initialized over Belize this morning at 12Z, I can't help but wonder if that center may be filling given the fact of being over land, and if a mid level center in the envelope's NE quadrant might be attempting to work its way down to the center around 18.5 and 87.5. Even if a new center were to attempt to form under the convection here or elsewhere in the eastern semicircle, the only ultimate difference in an overall westward motion of the system, might be "if" a more northward relocation of a center would permit the system to maintain, deepen, and finally get tagged with a name ( whatever it would be ). I suppose one other less likely but possible scenario could play out, which would be for a for a storm to form out of a mid level center as discussed above, but to somehow just be far enough to the east to not be caught under a building ridge over northern Mexico, and to be more or less caught in a COL, and more or less sit and spin in the NW Carib.
No answers here, but fun to watch as our Atlantic Season officially starts in 12 hours.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Tropical Storm Arthur within the hour.
Not gonna happen, since at 11:30am EDT the declared the LLC to be inland over Belize and the Yucatan.
Note, I did not say that the LLC was actually inland, I just said that the declared that it was.
Quote:
I suppose one other less likely but possible scenario could play out, which would be for a for a storm to form out of a mid level center as discussed above, but to somehow just be far enough to the east to not be caught under a building ridge over northern Mexico, and to be more or less caught in a COL, and more or less sit and spin in the NW Carib.
Looking at the floaters, it appears to me that the LLC is actually due east of Belize City, still over water. Of course, that's based upon my eyeballs which are known to be wrong more often than not . So the scenario you mention is actually what I was thinking MIGHT be playing out. Clearly, there is DEEP convection forming around this "secondary/developing" low that is offshore - and this new low, if it is one, does not appear to be moving.
Bottom line, in my opinion, is the blew this one.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat May 31 2008 12:27 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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they wont upgrade it at all unless they relocate the center back over water. I think the previous post was right on assuming the midlevel center may make it back down to the surface.....but probably not for a few days or really who knows.. Models all agree on moving this west then in the longer range north late next week...whatever mess is left to be organized.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
they wont upgrade it at all unless they relocate the center back over water. I think the previous post was right on assuming the midlevel center may make it back down to the surface.....but probably not for a few days or really who knows.. Models all agree on moving this west then in the longer range north late next week...whatever mess is left to be organized.
Will the mid-level center still exist in a few days, though, and if so, where?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Looking at the GOM WV loop, I don't see the possibility of a northward tack anytime soon from this system. It is quite well defined and as several others have mentioned, it is the remains of Alma. I think in hindsight, the track and history of Alma probably will be extended.
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Michael
PWS
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