LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Yes, have seen it. Been there, done that..
A lot of sats, views and model discussion on sites around the web.
Despite some temporary changes in path, a few frames that flutter once west or more north Bertha is moving for now NW towards that place she wants to go when the conditions are right.
It is a little unsettling for people living in Bermuda to hear that the models don't take her north of 40 and that she will be flirting around with their island for the next few days.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/wv.jpg
This gives I believe a better perspective on the situation.
As Beven put well in his discussion that is online here and on other sites but not always read as much as the advisories:
"IN A MAJOR SHIFT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...NONE OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW BERTHA REACHING 40N IN 5 DAYS. BASED ON
THIS...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOWER NORTHWARD MOTION
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE... WITH THE TRACK SMOOTHING THROUGH
SOME OF THE ERRATIC MOTION FORECASTS IN THE MODELS. THE NEW TRACK
IS CLOSER TO BERMUDA THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND BERTHA COULD COME
EVEN CLOSER TO BERMUDA IF THE JOGS TO THE LEFT IN THE UKMET AND
CANADIAN MODELS VERIFY."
Gonna be a long few days.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Looking at the loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
It looks like Bertha is elongating, does that mean it will be moving in that direction?
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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at last check AF309 was just getting to the outer fringes of Bertha... still flying at 26k ft.... and on a due east heading...
At 15:44:30Z, the observation was 216 miles (348 km) to the SW (233°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).
they were at 30.43N 67.73W @ 15:44:30Z
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Beautiful illustration of the eyes inside Bertha.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/jsl.jpg
She is spinning currently almost on herself,
This is a time sensitive post but check out the precision on all sides. Rare to see.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-jsl.html
Evacuating energy in all directions.. spins one way and the outflow spins the other.
Good illustration of a storm without negative problems like shear
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Gigsley
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Loc: Central Florida
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Here is a link to the recon planes that works well with Google Earth
http://wxgr.nl/ge/WXRecon.kmz
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~Floydbuster
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
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Video analysis of Bertha and potential Cape Verde development
http://podweather.com/podcast/?p=310
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
Video analysis of Bertha and potential Cape Verde development
http://podweather.com/podcast/?p=310
Both the HWRF and 18Z runs show a south movement. I don't think it is as wacky as that may appear. The governing synoptic evolution is that a ridge will flex stronger in about 3 or 4 days, and it is uncertain exactly what suppressive impact that will have on the latitude of Bertha. Loops in hurricane tracks do take place from time to time.
18z still likes that idea of another CV spin up and it is doing so by hour 72.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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I guess I'm not seeing things after all... I was just looking at the AVN loop of Bertha, and noted very little, if any, movement...but with the hint of a slight southward drift. A hurricane in the middle of nowhere, spinning upon itself... interesting phenomenon indeed.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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