ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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If,and it's a big if,94l does develop into a cane,I for one would really start to think we will have a very busy season.Bertha set a number of records,let's not have any more records broken.
p.s, Like the new feature, 
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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94L is looking extremely healthy tonight. just increased their "48-hour formation potential" risk level to "HIGH" from "MEDIUM," and I see no reason at all why this is not appropriate. Much like 92L, 94L is not merely some early season open wave, but already a well-formed area of low pressure with thunderstorms co-located within its heart. 94L has also remained nestled within an area of significant TPW, and favorable wind shear.
The actual text of the now reads
Quote:
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500
MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Over the past several hours convection has gone from light, moderate and scattered to widespread and deep, and now appears to be blowing up over an incipient LLC.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Over the past several hours convection has gone from light, moderate and scattered to widespread and deep, and now appears to be blowing up over an incipient LLC.
I was just about to note that, too. The hint of a circulation that I mentioned earlier, is still there... and it's looking very impressive right now, overall. Rapid movement could slow its development, but that didn't hamper Bertha's development at all. Generally when the says something like "A tropical depression could form at any time", they're looking for something very specific that they haven't seen yet. If the current apparently organization continues overnight, I believe advisories may be initiated as early as 5am, when visible imagery should be available.
The long-term model tracks for this system are extremely disconcerting. and imply an eastern seaboard threat, while LBAR and BAMM indicate a South American impact. BAMD, which is the most up-to-date model on WU, splits the difference, taking the system straight through the central Caribbean, on a path toward Jamaica.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN
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Looking good tonight, D-Max should be interesting.
(Inappropriate comments removed - wishcasting is not allowed on this site.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jul 14 2008 03:08 PM)
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Freezey
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 21
Loc: Brooksville,Florida
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Im not sure if the 2nd thing were watching is 94L or the L that was off the eastcoast but has anyone seen the spin starting in the next big wave right behind 94L? it wouldnt suprise me if we see a second invest after 94L develops.
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Is it me or am I the Only Person who thinks the NHC Needs Some Better names to go along with our Present Day&time.....?
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Dvorak shows a strongly centered system totally different from the way it looked this morning.
Whether it's upgraded tonight or in the morning the trend is towards a rapidly deepening system pulling itself together.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-bd.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-jsl.html
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Dvorak shows a strongly centered system totally different from the way it looked this morning.
Whether it's upgraded tonight or in the morning the trend is towards a rapidly deepening system pulling itself together.
Just as I suspected, unfortunately, from my own look at the loop an hour or two ago. Based upon the way Bertha blew up extremely rapidly, I suspect we may see the same thing happen with what will be Cristobal, except that Cristobal will be on a path that will take it through the Lesser Antilles. Of course, it's too early to say for sure, but the possibility is there for a very strong system in very little time.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Rapid intensification seems to be the catch phrase this year. What was it last year? Season with no reason? Anyway, lack of shear is always a factor and I don't see much at all in front of 94L.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/COMPSHEARATL_0z/comploop.html
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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A couple of other images (loops) which add even more evidence to the -enhanced loop provided above that 94L is very nearly right on the cusp already tonight, and has quite a lot going for it.
10-hour Tropical ATL IR loop from
Several days worth of TPW and h85 winds over the Tropical ATL (NRL loop).
As for T numbers, the loop could be a little misleading. It should be very helpful to get a couple of clearer microwave passes overnight tonight, but guessing by the looks of things, 94L seems to be a little northwest of where is pegging it right now... closer to the two balls of deepest convection which are a touch north of 10N, and if this is so, probably already up to a T number at or near 1.5
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Given the flare ups haven't really stuck, I'm not so sure yet. If it does take it may gain quickly, but I'm not sure it has yet. It still looks to me that part of it is still in the Intra Tropical Convergence Zone, if more of it escapes I think it has a shot. The surface data that's there--not much-- suggest a surface low of some sort is trying to form.
Probably mid-late tomorrow, or Tuesday if it does. Positive factors tonight include some surface data showing a low level circulation, and copious amounts of lightning, which tend to favor strengthening (even rapid). Most tropical storms do not have any lightning when they become organized (except in extreme rapid intensification)
That said, it's likely model runs will bend more westward, which means the Windward islands should be the most interested in this, followed by the leeward. Track beyond that is in the realm of speculation, even so it seems likely more due westward.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Looking through what little bit of *cough* crystalball we have to work with tonight, it really strikes me that 94L is almost all but free of the now. Perhaps a few feeder bands coming in from out of the monsoon trof, but that's about it. Water vapor imagery really starting to showcase the rapid improvement in organization that has taken place just over the last four or five hours, or so.
Uploaded an image that I've done some back of the hand doodles on of the ATL from around midnight eastern time.
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Freezey
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 21
Loc: Brooksville,Florida
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Is it more is did 94L just seperated into another area of circulation ubder it?.....then theres the large wave off behind it. 
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Is it me or am I the Only Person who thinks the NHC Needs Some Better names to go along with our Present Day&time.....?
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Looking at my disturbance ... near 11N and 51W this morning(sunday) it has quickly raced off to the W with the LLF and is now around 11N and 58W as of late Sunday night. The convection died off as presures rose slightly with the overall disturbance racing away from the itzc. Still though a weak tight circulation is there, if convection builds around this area on Monday...we may have something by Tuesday or Weds appoaching Hispaniola and Jamaica later in the week. I give this a 3/10 but still something to watch.
94L looks well organized and cant say much more than anyone else has said on here or the ...so until its offical... Ill leave it alone as also the models are hit or miss on this.
Bertha? giving fish some fresh water!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I've enlarged the satellite thumbnail in the upper right corner to permit viewing of the Bahamas also.
Moderate sized persistant area of thunderstorms over the Lower Bahamas at this time.
94L continues to consolidate it's convection. Two lobes of convection near the center. Probably will be named Tropical Depression by 11am EDT. Or 10 hours at the present rate of intensification.
Bertha... and the beat goes on. She still hasn't crossed the 31.0 North latitude line.
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
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Mike~ I must disagree with your perception of 94L not having been seperated from the . Though we do not have the luxury yet of visable pictures yet, it seems very evident to me that we have one large tropical cyclone with a dominant circulation. The overall circulation appears to me to be centered between 11-12N, and appears quite impressive on the JSL resolution.
With regard to those those concerned about anticipated "hype" relating to 94L, suffice it to say that when claims a system may develop into a Tropical Depression at any time...., this often means "...we have a depression and lets get one more scat pass or some vis. sats to verify. I would also say that I do not see any inhibiting factors for what appears to be a fairly good size envelope/system to develop into a named storm within 24 hours. Beyond that, I am seeing differing and altering data on how strong this system might develop into, and also think too premature to speculate on that yet. With regards to potential motion and possible short term concerns......, it is not a stretch to say that some portion of the Lesser Antilies may well be threatened by some form of Tropical Storm ( or greater? ) conditions in the few days to come. 94L appears to be moving westward under a building mid level E. Atlantic ridge, and as most larger envelope systems go more westward, there does not seem to be any digging mid Atlantic troughs to break down the ridge in place. Only fly in the ointment could be T.S. Bertha, but it appears to be cut off from the westerlies and trapped in the very ridge, that should also keep 94L on a general 270-285 heading in the short term.
While the convection may wane in its intensity and not yet offer a consistant , I would suggest that if a bursting process continues, this at minimum would seem to indicate slow falling surface pressures. I see no appearant upper level shear and outflow to the northwest to northeast quadrants do not appear inhibited at this time. I'll go out waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay out on a limb and guess 94L to be a named depression by 5:00pm Monday eve. ( though I would guess named Cristobal by sometime Monday night as well ).
(That indeed would be way out on a limb - we have only had a few model runs - most of them from the tropical suite - give it a chance to form first - initial model runs were initiated too far to the south.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jul 14 2008 03:17 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Fun times for mid-July, huh? Well, obviously depends on your definition of fun, but so far for storm trackers, we've had some fish. That may change.
Bertha is eventually going to go out to sea, in good agreement with model guidance. SSTs aren't terribly warm as it moves north and east, but they are probably warmer than the upwelled waters we have now. Some daily SST products I've seen elsewhere show this remarkably well in both the actual SST fields and the day-to-day change in their anomalies. If it moves out a tad here soon, the SSTs and relatively low storm-relative shear should allow Bertha to at least maintain itself for awhile.
(As an aside, it will be interesting to see how the SSTs in that area S/E of Bermuda evolve over coming weeks. We're still in the time frame where they tend to increase through time, but Bertha has done quite a number there this week. Anything that ends up in that area for the next week or two will have a shallow/low amount of oceanic heat to work with.)
94L should become our 3rd depression sometime today, then our 3rd storm sometime in the next few days. Bertha is not likely to be big enough as a tropical system nor expansive enough as a transitioning system to provide more than a tug northward on this feature. How much of a tug it gives will likely be dependent upon how fast 94L develops and how slowly both it and Bertha move in coming days. It'll ultimately determine whether it ends up crossing parts of the Lesser & Greater Antilles or not. Given the strong influence the Greater Antilles can have on storm structure and intensity, it's really tough to have any confidence beyond five days in terms of a track forecast -- moreso than it would be in any other case. Long-range models haven't done well with the pattern across the US this summer, resulting in even less confidence. Summing it up: as always, long range speculation isn't exactly something to make time with right now and everyone across the islands into the Bahamas and the southeast needs to keep an eye on this one.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Conditions are starting to rapidly deteriorate in and around Bermuda. As of 3:30 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Bertha has given up sitting and spinning for a decidedly good pace towards the northwest/north-northwest... and currently almost a bee-line towards Bermuda.
Having the benefit of moving over waters that haven't been upwelled, Bertha is now starting to travel back over SSTs that are running a hearty 27-28C, and at a rate of forward motion that just about guarantees no upwelling of any significance, especially given her weakened state. Some convection has started firing up within her center and outer rainbands, and what was at best the ghost of a ghost of an eyewall has begun reasserting itself a tiny little bit, with some hints at attempting to flare back up.
Bermuda is located at roughly 32.4° N 64.7° W. The center of Bertha is currently close to 31.2° N 63.7° W, and tracking along generally northwest or north-northwest t at something around 7 mph. A buoy located at 32.37° N 64.7°W, Station BEPB6 - 2695540 - Bermuda Esso Pier, is at this hour experiencing sustained winds of up to 30 knots, gusting to 37 knots. (Keep in mind that Bermuda is still located in the left-front quad, which is also still quite lacking in convection, in addition to just being the often weaker, left-front quadrant).
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Freezey
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 21
Loc: Brooksville,Florida
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On the Current View of Invest 94L it seems as its trying to form a Eye at an early stage...for some reason I see this one hitting rapid intensification in a big bloom of convection up to a Cat 1 when it hits the warmer waters head. though its just my 2 cents..... also can anyone give me some insight on the what seems to be circulation under 94L that it split from&the large wave off the African cost?
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Is it me or am I the Only Person who thinks the NHC Needs Some Better names to go along with our Present Day&time.....?
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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No eye forming within Invest 94L, although I think I see what you are referring to. This is just an optical illusion created by various cloud patterns. This sort of thing happens fairly often and should not be of any concern. We'll worry about eyes forming in what 94L may very well become, later.
Regarding water temperatures and development, SSTs are only one small part of a much larger mix of ingredients that go into baking and topping off tropical cyclones.
The convective complex south-southeast of 94L could be getting a very slight bit of spin to it in the lower levels, but really not much. Most of the apparent spin is actually likely yet another illusion, this one created by the direction of some of the mid/upper level winds crossing the lower-mid level winds within this part of the , which it is a part of. Any spin it has near the surface would almost certainly be too close to the equator, at this juncture, to have much chance at development beyond being a monsoon depression within the .
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Judging from the quickscat passes from overnight, 94L really isn't too organized yet, in fact still not all that impressive at all.
Perhaps by late today or tomorrow it could become more organized. Something to watch, for sure but it's by no means a sure bet.
Bertha is very close to Bermuda now as a fairly strong Tropical Storm, though.
I'll update later today.
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