craigm
Storm Tracker
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IR Satellite presentation is favoring scotts potential invest although microwave image shows more organization with 94L. I'm surprised the area in the carribean hasn't been tagged already.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/WATLSS85.html
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Why I'm here:
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Edited by craigm (Thu Jul 17 2008 01:32 AM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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I don't think satellite imagery favors impending formation of a TD/TS from EITHER of the Caribbean systems. Convection with 94L is starting to weaken yet again, although it's more together than the western Caribbean non-invest... which is totally disorganized to me.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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craigm
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Agreed, they both are marginal at best. I wasn't suggesting immediate development only that the area in the carbibean looked to have more potential than 94L. Broader area same amount of low shear and pressures slightly lower.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATANL_ATLPRS/recent.html
While we've been preoccupied with this other activity a fairly strong wave has just popped off the coast of Africa. I don't see any of the models doing anything with this so I am probably premature in even mentioning it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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ltpat228
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
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Quote:
Convection with 94L is starting to weaken yet again, although it's more together than the western Caribbean non-invest...which is totally disorganized to me.
Regarding 94L: a few years ago I watched you guys discuss a rectangular box near/below Cuba, wasn't it? And if storms pass through this area they go on to hit Florida?
I am curious if this 94L is in that area.
Also, could this Box Thing please be re-explained?
I tried looking it up on the Net and am getting no hits.
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scottsvb
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Loc: fl
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there is no such thing.......no certain box or anything like that.. Storms go certain directions due to ridges and troughs and other things in the atmosphere to push/pull them in a direction.
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danielw
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You are both correct. The name of the rectangular box(s) that you are referring to is the Hebert's Box. (pronounced A-bear's Box)
Photo below shows their location. Hebert proposed that a large number of storms that passed through the Eastern Hebert Box moved west and affected Florida.
The Western Hebert Box is more seasonal, if my recall is correct, it's more of a September through October area. With the storms recurving to again affect Florida. I'll try to find a link other than the wiki.
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm
Scottsvb is also correct in regard to the atmosphere. Weathers changes more often than the News and almost as often as a wristwatch.
Some will probably argue the wristwatch theory.
Edited by danielw (Thu Jul 17 2008 03:56 AM)
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Sophie
Unregistered
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Quote:
Quote:
Convection with 94L is starting to weaken yet again, although it's more together than the western Caribbean non-invest...which is totally disorganized to me.
Regarding 94L: a few years ago I watched you guys discuss a rectangular box near/below Cuba, wasn't it? And if storms pass through this area they go on to hit Florida?
I am curious if this 94L is in that area.
Also, could this Box Thing please be re-explained?
I tried looking it up on the Net and am getting no hits.
I think what you are talking about is the herbert box.
Here is a link to a very good article about "The Herbert Box"
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm
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Freezey
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Loc: Brooksville,Florida
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94 L aswell as the other Invest ahead Seems to be Expanding out. Is this a Good or Bad sign of development for the systems?
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Is it me or am I the Only Person who thinks the NHC Needs Some Better names to go along with our Present Day&time.....?
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Susprised the NAVY hasn't tagged the western carb. system.. looking at IR2 Shortwave... clearly see a good low level spin going... right where new covection fired... its really close to the coast... which should keep it in check... and with every hour... the window is lesser for developement... as the wave moves west.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RMTC_COS_2km_ir2.html
94L is just going way TOO FAST right now... 20-25 mph is a moving!!!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Jul 17 2008 06:17 AM)
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scottsvb
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94L has been moving at 22-25mph since it was near 40W.. and thats been the main problem all along.... same with my invest...it had a small chance also nearing the windwards but was moving tooo quick..now that its slowed down some (15mph) and has great upper level support... this should be a weak T.S. when entering the Nicarauga coast later today (Thurs) ..Sometimes the doesnt classify a system right when they are about to make landfall in central america it seems, but we will see this time. Right now..data and sat fixes show pressure around 1006mb and highest gust near 42mph near the convective center (11 miles away).
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cieldumort
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Lower pressure has been forming down in the southwestern Caribbean for a few days now, and with Scott's Little Wave That Could entering the picture, at the same time upper-level winds have become favorable. Time frame-wise, this whatever it becomes is easily favored to push into and across central America, but right behind it, Invest 94L might slow down around/south of Jamaica, and this region could still be rather favorable for continued genesis. It would seem that should this occur, 94L might be a little more developed, sooner, and have a chance to track more WNW to NW, which could open up the possibility of a Yucatan and then GOM concern.
In the meantime, I am not finding data supporting an estimate of 1006mb in the SW Carib, nor any ship or buoy report of a 42 mph gust. The lowest pressure reading I can find supports 1010, perhaps 1009, and winds generally 15-25 mph.
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allan
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Less organized?? 94L actually looks good, I think it even found a closed low. It's well organzied and scotts wave looks greeat this morning, dunno why it hasn't been tagged. I really hope they can fly in to both these systems today, especially 94L, I don't see how it lessened in organization, lessened in size yes, but it became a small tough little critter!
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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WeatherNut
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Is it just me or has a closed low formed off the Georgia coast. Seems the low that was over FL has moved off shore. Its over some very warm water too. I think this is something to watch
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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scottsvb
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System in the SW Carribean is about to move onshore Nicaragua later in the day....The T-Storms last night weren't completely over the center....and that's what the wants before any upgrade into Depression status. I gave it a 4/10 so it was defidently close. Also to note the system that went ashore in florida yesterday....if it waited just 24hrs and went ashore today...it would of been most likely a weak tropical storm.
94L is actually looking better (circulation wise) but its not in a good area to develop until it gets near 72W...so probably by tomorrow morning into Friday afternoon. 6/10 chance.
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allan
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Agreed, been preaching on 94L on wunderground but there downcasting it lol. I still believe 94L has a chance along with 95L in the Carribean. 94Ls circulation was great this morning, but now it seems to be looking ragged again due to land interaction with South America. Once it passes this area, I give it another chance for formation. I believe the Hurricane Hunters are flying into these two systems, these missions should not be canceled. Shear is strong to the north (20-40 knots) so to keep them going, they HAVE to move due west! The East Coast low looks a bit interesting, reminds me of Andrea. The Euro develops it into a Hurricane after leaving the coastline, on the 12Z run, it might have a weak TS. The shows the low moving up the coastline into NY. So I guess we'll see what happens...
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Storm Hunter
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think recon will find somewhat of a better system in 94L this afternoon, then they did yesterday... if does not cancel that mission...
the low of jacksonville should be the next invest... its close enough for doppler scans... and storms are flaring up along this east side... wouldn't be susprised to see NOAA send in one of the P-3's within the next 24hrs.
** REMARKS: MISSION FOR 17/0600Z AND 1200Z CANCELED BY AT 16/2200Z.
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satmaster.pl?Georgia
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Jul 17 2008 04:59 PM)
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scottsvb
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I wouldnt waste the $$$ on recon today for 94L....wait till tomorrow when its closer to 72-74W and see if we get better consolidation of the system by morning.
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Black Pearl
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Loc: Mobile Bay
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Navy has posted 95L and 96L.
NRL
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Old Sailor
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Both 94I and 95I now show
17/1745 UTC 13.3N 81.9W TOO WEAK 95L
17/1745 UTC 12.9N 66.1W TOO WEAK 94L
At one t ime 94I was 2.5 , don't think 94I is going to do much unless it can pull rabbit out of it's Hat.
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cieldumort
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Here's a quick and dirty overview.
94L has likely devolved into a fast-moving wave, with strong winds at the surface, but far less of anything that resembles a closed low at the surface than it had 24-72 hours ago. It needs to slow down a bit more, and get out from the graveyard. Once it is in the central to western Caribbean, shear should be far less, and its ability to capture deep, tropical moisture far greater. It probably stands another very good chance of earning a name by the time it is south of Jamaica.
Should 94L develop, it will probably pose some threat of a WNW to NW turn. Should it stay too weak, chances are it runs right into central America.. maybe to do something once in the east pac.
95L could still organize just enough, and just soon enough, to get an upgrade. It has some banding features, and a healthy broad area of low pressure. Again, like 94L behind it, should it not do something while in the Carib, another one for the east pac to entertain doing something with.
96L (formerly the unnumbered "Invest" sitting over Florida) may actually have the best chance of doing something within the next 24 hours of all three of these. When sitting just offshore of the west coast of the state, it did indeed have something of a closed low at at the lower levels, but only barely so at the surface - far too much land interaction - and then, it just went on inland. Having been held in check by this, it continues off to the NNE, or perhaps NNW now, and is in a somewhat favorable environment to reconstitute itself into something it wanted to become while over Florida, but couldn't. Visible loops have "the look," already. Should it earn a name, places right along the coast should certainly be watching --- perhaps especially the Carolinas.
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