Random Chaos
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I'm looking at SSD IR loop of 94L and noticing that the COC is intensifying and becoming more defined, with persistent convection over the COC for the last 6 hours . Further, it appears to be spinning off the northern convective shield, as a band of warmer cloud tops has now appeared between the COC and the northern convective shield. If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say 94L is in the process of consolidating it's convective pattern into a TD/TS at present, and would not be surprised to see this become TD#4 at 11pm. Water vapor also shows this.
The SSMIS microwave overpass shows a definite strong convective band at the core, but no evidence of banding yet. Though we'd not normally expect that yet at this stage.
IR
Water Vapor
Microwave
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Brett Addison
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I think the reason why 94L hasn't developed is because it still has too much African dust or dry air entrained in its circulation. I have also never seen such a strong tropical wave go across the entire Atlantic in favorable conditions and not develop. If this storm doesn't develop then I don't know how any storm can develop. Why can't the circulation get down to the surface? Is it the African dust and dry air impeding development?
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Storm Hunter
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my one word answer would be the HIGH (surface flow) in the atlantic... the flow is screaming across the atlantic... from east to west...  based on tonights SATs... we could have a TD by morning... if one of those covection blobs takes over... i would think the northern one would be the place where we would find the low close off...
94L
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Jul 20 2008 01:52 AM)
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Random Chaos
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94L is one stubborn storm. Every time you figure out where the COC is, the location degrades and another pops up. The southern one I was seeing an hour ago is now gone, and in it's place is another strong core more central to the wave, as Storm Hunter mentioned. And it too is spinning off the outer convective shields.
I'm thinking, based on what I'm seeing on IR, that this system is in some ways being slowed up in its development by it's own multiple low centers refusing to consolidate. This could also be the reason recon is having problems finding a closed low.
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typhoon_tip
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Quote:
I think the reason why 94L hasn't developed is because it still has too much African dust or dry air entrained in its circulation. I have also never seen such a strong tropical wave go across the entire Atlantic in favorable conditions and not develop. If this storm doesn't develop then I don't know how any storm can develop. Why can't the circulation get down to the surface? Is it the African dust and dry air impeding development?
Saharan dust is not the culprit, if that helps. There really is not enough evidence that this system has been contaminated by that particular form of toxicity. This system was weak originally, a weak wave that had very little momentum while east of the Windwards. It did gain though, via a favorable large scale environment, which guided good convective explosions; such that upon entering the eastern Caribbean, and despite climatology, it gained some, but at that time 95L was in the western Caribbean. That was problematic because the outflow from all that unorganized convection was creating west to northwesterly shear, and this substantially retarded growth potential. Now that 95L is removed from the field, we've seen better convection displays since, but it became very much like starting over again. Bottom line...timing of evolution of environmental factors - not including SAL (Saharan Air Layer) - are the main reasons.
It should be noted that most models do suggest development from these time points and looking forward.
John
Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Jul 20 2008 03:32 AM)
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danielw
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This recent satellite photo may help to explain why 94L is still... 94L and not a named or numbered system.
I was having a hard time trying to understand why it wasn't developing.
Until I saw the Mid level Low out to the NW of 94L.
Outflow from the MLL, centered between the Western tip of Cuba and the Isla de Juvidad (Isle of Youth), actually extends over the southern half of the FL Peninsula at this time. (High thin cirrus- wispy horsetail -like clouds)
The Flow skirts the NW and NE quadrants of 94L and then extends to the SE nearing the South American Coast.
I've noticed a trend of three convective towers/ centers that appear to be fighting to be the main center of convection for 94L
The dominant 'hot' tower is the green dot/ square on the left side of the main cloud. This tower has been dominant for the last two hours and is near the CoC in the loops.
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scottsvb
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I think everyone has been missing the fact that 94L was and is a midlevel disturbance with a broad Low at the surface where there are many vort maxs racing around the overall pattern. The system will get better defined in the NW carribean or SW Gulf once a area of T-storms persists and pressures drop.
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Storm Hunter
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it may be my eyes, but watching KLTX, it seems that Cristobal has slowed down some? Looked like when it crossed the frying pan shores, it slowed down some in its movement...
and with 94L... looks like its holding it convection like i thought it would.. would not be susprised if they called it a TD in next pkg... and when recon gets out there... a TS... looked like to me the CoC has reformed more to the northwest, then what the 00Z runs were on? time will tell... and yes daniel... that ULL has thrown me off too... we delt with ULL for the last two seasons... and i thought by now, i know what to expect...
** IR Shortwave ***
i think i see the low center around 17n 83w... well west of the convection... but looking at the overall picture.. i think a mid to upper level low is trying to form at the surface near... 18n 81w....
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Jul 20 2008 06:48 AM)
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cieldumort
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Quote:
** IR Shortwave ***
i think i see the low center around 17n 83w... well west of the convection... but looking at the overall picture.. i think a mid to upper level low is trying to form at the surface near... 18n 81w...
I sort of buy in to the same take. The surface low is meant to be down around 15-16N, if you are using the same stuff some of the models still are, and 16N if you are following along with . That is about where our old, almost, but never really quite closed-off, surface circulation has been trending. However, with that old center being a part of the much larger, elongated and potent wave... having had what could be argued to have been a benefit of the ULL imparting much fanning flow aloft... very deep convection along the trof tonight has possibly generated another surface low, altogether... or compelled the original surface low to jump a good bit NNW.. Whatever the case is, it may be closed... and now possibly in the vicinity of 17-18N, 82-83W. Other circulations almost undoubtedly still exist in the stew, but with NOAA Buoy 42057 located at 16.83N 81.50W having just had its winds flip around to the SSE and then S, while also experiencing a marked pick-up in speed, and a brand new phase of lowering pressure, the easy argument would be for a surface low center of some sort to exist to its west.
There looks to be a fairly good chance that a surface low is in the process of closing off, if it hasn't done so already. With sustained winds already blowing at and in excess of 34 knots, should be able to verify to their satisfaction that this is so, it's Dolly Madison for breakfast. If the low hasn't closed off, or if they do not have enough confidence in these tentative indications, we'll probably wait around for another recon trip in there. Named, or unnamed, Yucatan vacationers are probably in for a good bit of tropical flogging.
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LoisCane
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This has been my thought all morning watching it seem to spin and consolidate.
A lot of stormy weather in this wave and finding it hard to believe it doesn't have a center it's closed off and wish that recon was in the system already.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/bd-l.jpg
I know that doesn't mean there is a true center vs strong weather but this has consistently showed stronger images than Cristobal and there were reports of high gusts from the recon earlier.
If the storm forms a center high..throws off the models and they will probably pull to the right.
Beginning to show signs of outflow around the upper area.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-jsl.html
Hard to believe it hasn't reached Tropical Depression status but it's not my call or our call but waiting for recon to make the call or pin the tail on the center.
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allan
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They did it, after a hard find, they found a center and it's now named 04L NONAME on the navy site where you click all storms.
Here's the link..
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...mp;STYLE=frames
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Random Chaos
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EDIT:
**** Named system 04L Dolly ****
Per Allan's link. Nothing at yet.
EDIT 2:
Latest shows a strong comma shape to the core. I'd guess a rating of 2.0 or 2.5 now. This developed in the last hour.
Ref: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/bd.jpg
--- Original post below ---
Recon is in the storm.
If you've got Google Earth, click on the "Live Recon Data in Google Earth" link here: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
(Personal PM material removed - see site rules on Personal Messages.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Jul 20 2008 05:16 PM)
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cieldumort
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Vortex message is in on 04L
Storm Number 4 Pressure 1009mb
Flight level winds 50 knots
SFMR measured at surface 35 knots
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 50KT (57.5mph 92.6km/h) In Quadrant At D 1324Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 45.0KT (51.8mph 83.3km/h) *
Edited by cieldumort (Sun Jul 20 2008 02:29 PM)
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craigm
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So she went from invest to T.S. Dolly overnight. Shear from the ULL has relaxed in the past 24 hrs.
24hrs ago:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/archive/wg8shr-8.html
Current:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
This is without a doubt the most interesting season since I started watching storms.
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Random Chaos
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Actually, it says 05L in the recon (same as your pre-edit post).
URNT12:
P. NOAA2 05AAA INVEST OB 12 AL052008
SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1500 FEET
MAX FL WIND 50 KTS E QUAD 1324Z
AL05 in the first line. If this is 05L, what is 04L Dolly?
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Hugh
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Quote:
Actually, it says 05L in the recon (same as your pre-edit post).
URNT12:
P. NOAA2 05AAA INVEST OB 12 AL052008
SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1500 FEET
MAX FL WIND 50 KTS E QUAD 1324Z
AL05 in the first line. If this is 05L, what is 04L Dolly?
Look at the lat/long. 05L is some recon person's fat fingers, I think.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Freezey
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The official update should be at 11 am with Dolly,its track should be interesting. On the visible sattelite imagery anyone else see the center moving a bit NNW? Thats making me think if this Trough in Our Country now could shoot south&effect it?
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Is it me or am I the Only Person who thinks the NHC Needs Some Better names to go along with our Present Day&time.....?
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Hugh
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I've thought for a couple of days that the LLC was moving more NW/NNW than anything else, so it wouldn't shock me if it were really moving NNW now. No advisory package on Dolly (yet)? What's going on!?!?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Random Chaos
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I'm not quite sure what Recon is doing. They so far have not passed anywhere close to the core of the storm. See attached screenshot from Google Earth.
Google Earth IR overlay: http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/placemarks/42735-GlobalInfraredSatelliteImages.kmz
Google Earth Recon overlay: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ge/Recon_Data_for_the_Atlantic_Basin.kmz
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Hugh
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They DID find a vortex, though... so at the very least, they should have initiated advisories on Dolly as a Subtropical Storm, shouldn't they?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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