Dolly Strengthening.. Hurricane Warnings Up in Texas Brownsville to Corpus Christi

5:00 PM CDT 22 July Update

Dolly's internal structure has improved this afternoon. Recent IR and hi resolution visible imagery strongly argue for the production of an eye. We are also see the explosive genesis of a feature. This combined with recent reconnaissance report of 75kt flight level wind has prompted to upgrade Dolly to hurricane status.

As of the 5pm update, her forward motion has been decreasing slightly and is now northwest at 10mph. Central pressure was ~ 986mb and her maximum winds were set at 75mph.

Oceanic heat content remains good, shear has relaxed considerable over what Dolly experienced with the yesterday, and upper level divergence is looking good with clear anticyclonic outflow established. There is just every so slightly some impinging southerly winds do to the s final last tentacles of contact, but it appears these are too weak at this point to be much of any significant mitigation to development. It is for these reasons that the official intensity by is set a little higher than the more robust model solutions, now taking Dolly to 80kts just prior to making landfall. It should be noted however, that a couple of higher resolution models (discussed below) are a tad slower and farther north along the coast. The longer Dolly stays over the warm waters of the Gulf, the stronger she may become.

There is some contention during the afternoon on where/when Dolly will cross the coastline. Earlier runs had somewhat tightly clustered around an ~ Brownsville landing. However, a couple of the higher resolution models, including the WRF and the HWRF, are bringing Dolly up farther along the TX Coast before turning her left and on land. For this reason, folks up into the Bend area of the TX Coast need to monitor this with due diligence. This is also a good time to remind people not focus on the exact location the actual eye crosses the coast, and to pay close attention to the wind field radii information.

This is also going to be a slow mover as it comes in land. Citizens in the interior parts of southern TX and near the Rio Grande valley need to take early precautionary measure to protect against the threat of flooding for what is likely to be a protracted period of excessive rainfall while Dolly slowly winds down.

John (typhoon_tip)

11:00 AM EDT/10:00 AM CDT 22 July Update
Dolly remains a Tropical Storm for now the /Upper low is still holding it in and it will do so unless it escapes it entirely it will remain a Category 2 system or lower.

Hurricane Warnings were lowered to Tropical Storm Warnings north of Corpus Christi.

It will likely slowly strengthen today.

Links for Webcams, Radar, and news outlets in the area have been posted toward the bottom of this article, including 4 flhurricane recordings.

8:00 AM EDT/7:00 AM CDT 22 July Update
Dolly is finally starting to shake (but hasn't completely) the effect of the Upper Level Low (now over the western edge of the Bay of Campeche) and is starting to slow down as mentioned by prior National Hurricane Center forecasts. Indications are it will likely slowly gain strength throughout the day. Pressure is now 993 mb and windspeed is at 65MPH.

Dolly should become a hurricane later this morning and likely gain strength throughout the day. Since the outflow problems that it was having seem to be going away, it could undergo rapid intensification (This is very unpredictable... most likely it will not and stay Category 2 or lower) Folks in Northern Mexico and southern Texas (The Hurricane Warnings) should rush any more preparations today as conditions will start to deteriorate this evening.

10:55PM EDT/9:55PM CDT Update
The earlier hurricane watch area has now been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. A tropical storm warning is up from Port O'Conor to San Luis pass, Also the Hurricane Warning enters Mexico to San Fernando.

The National Hurricane Center expects Dolly to become a hurricane but not a Major Hurricane. Likely a Category 1 at landfall, right at or just south of the Texas/Mexico border Wednesday morning (around 7 or 8 am CDT). Locations just to the north of the landfall point will likely see most of the worst weather.

6:55PM EDT/5:55PM CDT Update
New minimum lowest pressure from recon confirms strengthening, down to 998mb from 1004.

Take a guess at where Dolly will go and how strong, Let us know in the Forecast Lounge... (Click here to add your comment) orhere to see others

6:46PM EDT/5:46PM CDT Update
There are some signs now that Dolly has begun strengthening, a new Recon plane is on it's way and finding lower pressure already (before reaching the system), and it appears from the visible and IR satellite that a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) is forming near the Center of Dolly.

The mid level dry socket wrapping in from the east and south is starting to become filled in, setting the stage for possible strengthening this evening. If the new Central Convection holds it will likely build quickly.

5:00PM EDT/4:00PM CDT Update
There is not too much new to report, recon has still been struggling to find a true center, but has indeed found one. The movement is still west northwest at around 18MPH. Dolly is expected to start slowing down forward motion tomorrow morning.

The watches are still up and portions of them may enter into warnings later tonight or tomorrow morning.

Satellite presentation of Dolly is very mixed, currently the western edge seems to be fairly well defined, but the southeastern section has a very interesting dry section that follows along to a remnant of the in the Bay of Campeche. This is the only really negative thing going for it. The water temperatures, shear and anticyclone above it are all favorable for development. But with a lack of a really solid inner core, not too much can happen. If it does form, it could increase rapidly.

There is the potential for a rapid ramp up before landfall, which is why everyone in the watch area must start some preparations, and when hurricane warnings go into effect, execute them. Although the chances of a rapid intensity increase are only about 20%, it's still possible. Areas at and north of the eventual landfall point will likely see the worst of whatever Dolly brings. There is no good reason doubt the forecast track that the National Hurricane Center has put out.

Those in the watch/warning area need to listen to officials and local media, and as warnings approach, get off the Internet and do some preparations. Do the prudent thing here, although it is most likely that Dolly will not gain too much strength, the chance is high enough where you need to prepare for it or worse. Rule of thumb is to prepare for 1 category level above what is forecast.

2:00PM EDT/1:00PM CDT Update
Dolly is maintaining its windspeed direction and movement as of the 2PM EDT advisory according to recon.

The models have shifted a bit south, but still don't have the best handle on the system.

It appears the National Hurricane Center's forecast track will be good.

Hurricane Watches Up in Texas Brownsville to Port O'Connor, Tropical Storm watch from Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass.

Mexico has a hurricane watch from Rio San Fernando to the US/Mexico Border.

10:56AM EDT/9:56AM CDT Update
Hurricane Watches Up in Texas Brownsville to Port O'Connor, Tropical Storm watch from Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass.

Mexico has a hurricane watch from Rio San Fernando to the US/Mexico Border.

Looks like since the early AM, the surface low has indeed formed, the Hurricane Center is suggesting intensification, so those in the hurricane watch areas need to be beginning hurricane preparations. Do not focus on the landfall point, those (especially to the north) are forecast to possibly see hurricane condition within 36-48 hours.

There is a chance that the storm may slow its forward motion as it nears the coast.

More to come soon.

10:38AM EDT/9:38AM CDT Update
Recon just sent back a vortex message,

Center:
22Â° 04' N 89Â° 10' W (22.1Â°N 89.2Â°W)

Surface winds roughly 55MPH. This implies it is forming further north.
10AM EDT/9CDT Update
Recon yet again did not find a distinct low level circulation center, this probably means it is up for formation, best guestimate right now (which may change in a few minutes) may be a little to the east of where the main blob is now.

Also most of the convection is on the northern side of the system, so those to the north (right) of the landfall point will likely see the worst of whatever Dolly Brings.

Shear is nonexistant right now, water temperatures are warm, movement is fairly fast west northwest right now, however some slowdown and collapse of steering currents may happen late tomorrow.

Everyone in the cone of probability needs to be watching Dolly closely.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Cristobal is now moving away from the Carolinas and out to sea as a 50 MPH Tropical Storm. It brought some rainfall to the Carolina coast, but most of the heavy convection was over the ocean. Cristobal never made landfall on the US.

Tropical Storm Dolly is highly questionable this morning. This system has been very resistant to tropical development for a week now, and even as a named system it seems to be missing a low level circulation. And without a Low-Level Circulation the argument that it is not a Tropical Cyclone could be made. Convection wise, cloud tops are very cold, and the convection that is there is pretty strong.

Dolly's center position was readjusted to the north overnight and it is now re-emerging into the Gulf of Mexico, and now is moving generally west-northwest, which suggests the National Hurricane Center's track is still pretty good.

From analyzing it this morning, it seems the forecast track may have to be adjusted to the left (south, more into Mexico) if the current trend continues. The ridge to the north and the fact that it remains very weak and not so organized is suggesting that it will likely keep the more westerly track.

Northern Mexico probably has the best chance of seeing a landfall. Since the center may be more at the Mid-Levels (again a questionable tropical cyclone) it's very possible the system could reform its center again. Aircraft Recon is out checking out dolly now to help determine this.

What do you think Dolly will do? Let us know in the Forecast Lounge (Click here)

The lack of a good circulation center will keep the entire cone watching, from South Texas to Mexico (more likely Northern Mexico). Intensity wise, it's even harder to say. Following persistent trends suggest it may stay weak, but the Gulf of Mexico is known to change things.

Outside of this, an unusually vigorous wave is exiting the African coastline, and if it persists we'll have something else to track for a good while. More discussion on this wave can be found here

More to come later

Event Related Links

Cozumel Weather
Cancun Radar Cancun Radar Loop (Flhurricane long term recording)

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Texas/South Plains Radar Composite

Southeast Radar Composite (loop)

Local Media:

Brownsville Herald
The Monitor
Valley Morning Star
KGBT 4 News
KRGV Newschannel 5
KURV 710 News/Talk

Webcams:
Coastal Surfing Pier Cam (Corpus Christi)
South Padre Island Cams: BeachCam SurfCam Bay Cam
Rio Grande Cam in Mission, TX
Matamoros/Brownsvillle Cams

Recordings:
Dolly Brownsville Level 3 Radar (Now Active)
South Padre Beach Cam
South Padre Island Surf Cam -- High Res (Not Active Yet)
South Padre Island Bay Cam (Now Active)

Edited by typhoon_tip (Tue Jul 22 2008 09:16 PM)

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