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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


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Gulf of Mexico Watching and Wave Watching
      #80993 - Sat Jul 26 2008 12:29 AM

Update - Sunday, 08/03 Noon ET
The Low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico may form into a depression or storm later today or tomorrow and all those along the central gulf into Texas will want to watch this.

More to come soon.

Update - Friday, 08/01 5PM ET
Invest 99L in the central tropical Atlantic with a weak circulation center near 17.5N 38.5W at 01/21Z moving westward with little convection. Windshear should limit any chance for development until Monday.

Active but disorganized tropical wave passing through the Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean Sea over the weekend. Convection is present, but this system will encounter west to westnorthwest wind shear over the next couple of days. A small chance for some development after the weekend as the shear relaxes.

Another wave is located south southwest of the Cape Verde Islands near 12.5N 26W at 01/18Z moving westward under light easterly shear. SSTs are about 26C and this system may have the best chance for eventual development. Note that convection is currently displaced to the southeast of the wave apex. At 02/12Z, NHC has designated this wave as Invest 90L located at 11.5N 27.7W. Conditions remain favorable for slow development of this system.

Finally, another active wave is located over west Africa near 14N 5W at 01/18Z.

Lots of things to watch, but nothing to cause any concern for the moment.
ED

Update - Wednesday, 07/30 12AM ET
Invest 98L just off the west African coast near 14N 18W at 30/00Z moving slowly westward in a narrow zone of light wind shear. SSTs of about 26C. Surface low pressure center of 1008MB. Slow development is possible over the next few days.

Second wave near 9N 37W at 30/00Z also moving slowly westward. Wave has a small area of convection but is currently not as well organized as Invest 98L.
ED

Original Post
For the first time this month, the Atlantic Basin is relatively quiet. Invest 97L near 19N 44W at 26/00Z is disorganized and has quite a bit of drier air to contend with for the next 36 hours as it travels westward at 15 knots. Conditions will improve on Sunday and slow development is still possible later on Sunday or Monday.

A healthy tropical wave moved off the west African coast a couple of days ago but it quickly became disorganized under cool SSTs and strong easterly shear. It is entering a slightly more favorable environment but additional development is questionable. Note that easterly shear still exists off the west African coast westward to about 30W between 8N and 18N. The wave was roughly located at 9N 26W at 26/00Z.

Finally, an active and well organized tropical low exists over the African continent at 10N 2E at 26/00Z and this system will exit the coast in a few days.
ED
91L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


99L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)




Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 03 2008 12:25 PM)


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


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Re: Wave Watching [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #80995 - Sat Jul 26 2008 12:48 PM

Enjoy the slow period as the atlantic might spark back up into the 2-3 week of august as another strong pulse of the MJO moves back into the atlantic just as we embark the meat of the season.

Flitered OLR Forcast....



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craigm
Storm Tracker


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Re: Wave Watching [Re: Hurricane29]
      #81000 - Sun Jul 27 2008 12:04 PM

H29, I was just studying up on the MJO when I read your post. Couldn't agree with you more. Our active period are phases 1,2,7 & 8. You can see by this graphic that our increased activity in July correlates nicely with the data.
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif

Here are a couple more MJO links that I have found quite interesting:
http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/explore.asp

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap12/mjo.html

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Wave Watching [Re: craigm]
      #81001 - Sun Jul 27 2008 04:37 PM

This really will be a good opportunity to watch and see and record if the season pulses up in accordance with the MJO.

There was a tremendous amount of SAL that ate into 97. The next wave was low and is there but still low.

Waiting for the next big wave to come off to see or am wondering if some home grown brew or whatever that phrase is might happen.. a lot of wicked weather today across the coastal regions and all that rain will go where? Anything possibly could develop close in I wonder. Probably not but something to think on while watching waves.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LoisCane
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: LoisCane]
      #81003 - Mon Jul 28 2008 08:12 AM

Check out the wave flaring up by south america. Interesting on a few loops. Maybe something to watch? Close to where Bertha played.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Wave Watching [Re: LoisCane]
      #81004 - Mon Jul 28 2008 11:19 AM

I'm alittle interested in the Gulf system... it has no real model support...put it does have a weak area of low pressure.

scottsvb


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: scottsvb]
      #81006 - Mon Jul 28 2008 01:24 PM

Appears to have a low to mid level circulation centered 120 to 180nm Southwest of Eglin AFB, FL radar.
Drifting west toward the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gen_lnids.cgi?pl=n0z&cu=1&loop=yes1&ident=EVX


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danielwAdministrator
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GOM [Re: danielw]
      #81007 - Mon Jul 28 2008 01:50 PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1128 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

MEANWHILE...AN MCS IS UNDERWAY IN
THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS WELL BELOW MOBILE BAY AND
ADVANCING WESTWARD. THIS MAY SERVE MORE IN DISRUPTING THE ONSET OF
GULF AND LAKE BREEZE AS WELL AS DISRUPTING INFLOW TO LAND BASED
CONVECTION ONCE ESTABLISHED. PRESSURES APPEAR TO BE HOLDING AROUND
1012MB WITH THIS CLUSTER BUT PERSISTENCE MAY SEE PRESSURES
STARTING TO FALL LATER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AFD LIX Full Text
edit- this could get very interesting rather quickly~danielw


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Wave Watching [Re: Unregistered User]
      #81008 - Mon Jul 28 2008 02:12 PM

sophia your seeing a ULL near Cuba...the low south of Mobile is more in the LLV...but the east wind is very shallow on the N side of the low....lowest pressure I found is 1011.1mb.. It may not develop more..but its the only active area west of 60W thats worth looking at for me.

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cieldumort
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Re: GOM [Re: danielw]
      #81009 - Mon Jul 28 2008 04:20 PM

This area of disturbed weather in the north-central GOM did get highlighted in the 2PM TWO:
Quote:

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.




I don't know.. I really have to say, while movement of the parent trough overall might be extending northwestward with time, the MLC, which seems to be holding its own very well for having been born from an MCS, looks to be drifting more west-southwestward, and dragging most of the umph of the associated surface trough along with it.

Typically, MCS-to-TC genesis is one of the less frequent ways depressions form in the Atlantic basin, as a whole, but is climatologically somewhat more possible in the Gulf. And in addition to that historical backdrop, this MCS is riding a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, or along the remains of a decaying front.

Here's where I want to say, "But wait! That's not all!" The disturbance also has a favorably weak ULL positioned just to its west, and such that there is also some divergence going on, but without imparting especially high shear. If anything, shear has been relaxing over this area throughout the day.

While NHC has highlighted the feature with its yellow code ("LOW" probability of formation within 48 hours), I might venture a guess that it is on the high side of their "LOW" probability, and, especially given how close it is to land, should certainly be monitored closely for any signs of further development.


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


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Re: GOM [Re: cieldumort]
      #81011 - Mon Jul 28 2008 07:09 PM

I have also seen quite a bit of new convection bubbling up with this feature. If its still there tomorrow, its definitely something to watch since it has some outflow (or what looks like outflow) over it

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Re: GOM [Re: WeatherNut]
      #81015 - Tue Jul 29 2008 08:25 AM

Pretty close to land, but big blow-up in the GOM system this morning:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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cieldumort
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81016 - Tue Jul 29 2008 10:56 AM

Situation with the NGOM feature this morning doesn't offer much excitement. Late last night, convection went out like a candle, but started flaring back up by 3 or 4am CDT, and now, once again, has grown back into a respectable MCS. However, unlike yesterday, the surface trough has become less well-defined. Cloud motions in the lowest levels almost all head generally northward, with only a slight bend noted, where just yesterday there existed definitive cyclonic flow near and at even at the surface. Area surface pressures are not falling and winds are generally light.

Of note, a low to mid-level swirl, probably the remnant vorticity signature from Monday's blow-up, is located near 27N 89W this morning. Over the last few visible frames it appears to be tucking under some of the deeper offshore convection... there remains a slight chance, however slim, that this could make some connection with the surface that actually sticks, later today.

Almost all forecasts are now calling for the disturbance to move northwestward to northward, bringing rains and thunderstorms to much of Louisiana, and perhaps then looping back to the northeast to east, enhancing the precipitation over the southeast and/or Florida.

The tropical waves that have been rolling off Africa and make it beyond the cooler SSTs of the eastern Atlantic the past several days have been choking on some very dry air/SAL and just hang on for dear life - if not bite the dust - even the most impressive of them.

This latest wave centered near 11.5N 17W looks to have some good vorticity in the mid-levels, and is not yet plagued by SAL.


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M.A.
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: Unregistered User]
      #81020 - Tue Jul 29 2008 05:50 PM

My eyes are drawn to around 9N 34W. Is this the defunked 97L? It seems to be making a strong comeback, if it is. Looking at the sat loop it has deminished in storm coverage in the last few frames. Earlier it was seeming to have some outflow on the southern side. I think it needs to be watched in the coming days as conditions seem to be improving.

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cieldumort
Moderator


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Re: Wave Watching [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81021 - Tue Jul 29 2008 09:41 PM

This was starting to look overdue, so it's good to see that 98L is now up.

Some of us have been eyeballing this one very closely for a few days now.
They really don't come rolling right off the tip of Africa much better than this:



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ltpat228
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98L Invest? [Re: cieldumort]
      #81022 - Tue Jul 29 2008 10:52 PM

NAVY site has this posted now:


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...p&TYPE=ssmi


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cieldumort
Moderator


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Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Wave Watching [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81025 - Wed Jul 30 2008 03:19 AM

It's pretty clear tonight that 98L has been developing at a good clip, so far
- and to no surprise, already yanking northbound.

Lacking any ship or buoy reports, the nearest stations are land-based. Pressures a good bit easterly of 98's coc have already been down to 1007mb, with sustained winds from the southwest, south, southeast, east-southeast and southeast in a range of 10-25mph... (Inland, and a jump east of the center.)

Combined with the latest Dvorak estimates, it's easy to argue that an upgrade could be on the way this morning, should convection stay healthy. Here are the latest from SAB, which some may think the most recent two look a little conservative:

30/0600 UTC 14.4N 18.8W T1.5/1.5 98L -- Atlantic Ocean
30/0000 UTC 13.4N 17.6W T1.0/1.0 98L -- Atlantic Ocean
30/0000 UTC 13.4N 17.6W TOO WEAK INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean
29/1730 UTC 12.2N 16.9W TOO WEAK INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean
29/1200 UTC 11.3N 16.6W TOO WEAK INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean

98L has been on a solid NNW course -
to be expected of a more developed feature.

Early model support for 98L is almost flat. So far, they all are starting with a weaker feature than has existed. Thinking a few more microwave passes, and hopefully a solid scat or two, everything else being equal, especially convective-wise, daylight may very well seal the deal for NHC, and perhaps then we should be able to start getting some model runs on it worth considering. Given the rapid ramp-up and NNWD track so far, it might be only one for the CVs to worry about. Regardless, lots and lots of blue between there and over here...

Waiting for daylight...


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danielwAdministrator
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98L [Re: cieldumort]
      #81026 - Wed Jul 30 2008 12:53 PM

Navy shot of 98L approximately 90 minutes ago.

BIG fish spinner. Big system and Big fish.
Better hope that this one follows Bertha's course.



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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1070
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 98L [Re: danielw]
      #81027 - Wed Jul 30 2008 01:19 PM

It's had a lot going for it, and plenty of Internet observers have already come to the conclusion that it could have been classified early this morning. . QuikSCAT came in.. a little elongated, but not really all that much, and appears to have sufficiently paired surface and mid-level cocs. Sure, the waters are a little cooler where it is -now- now that it has already gone bonkers and headed a lot north of where it was progged, and so over the past few hours cloud tops have warmed. But structurally it is pretty sound. There might be a bit of umbilical connection with the ITCZ they would like to see completely severed, but this is not unlike several of the depressions we have seen form in the extreme eastern pacific this season.

SAB is running a little slow with publishing their T reads, but here's the latest from about 8AM EDT
30/1145 UTC 15.1N 19.9W T1.5/1.5 98L

Track looks as if it has been turning at least a little more northwesterly, than north-northwesterly now. If you only read the TWOs, you would think it's been much of nothing and heading west to northwest. I don't get this, at all. However, 98L is now bumping up against the B/A High some more... and might start to hook a little more left as the day goes on... certainly could still put the CVs in its sights, although it's already looking possible that it bypasses them completely to the north.. maybe even rounds them from the north.

Here's a very striking recent water vapor image also courtesy NRL.


Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jul 31 2008 12:51 AM)


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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Wave Watching [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81030 - Wed Jul 30 2008 08:29 PM

Storms in western Caribbean near coast of Nicaragua and Honduras are persisting. This area appears to be drifting northward. And there appears to be some slight circulation, most likely in the mid or upper levels. But pressures are falling in that area, could be something of note. Any thoughts?

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
Hurricane Season 2010: 15/8/4


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1070
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Wave Watching [Re: metwannabe]
      #81031 - Wed Jul 30 2008 09:51 PM

Looks like some routine summer flareups, helped along by some old boundaries, upper-level lows, and passing waves, are keeping on and off convection going in the Caribbean.

That area does start to bubble quite a bit during the peak.

So many little impulses between the CONUS and Africa all of a sudden. Upper-level winds aren't yet all that supportive of just about any of them, but just looking at the volume of convective clusters and waves, I think I'll keep a casual eye on the entire Atlantic basin for the next few days. It is almost August, and we have seen a really perky July, as it is, after all.

98L got its act together quicker than model runs could catch up, and has curved so far north, so fast, that it is now over waters even cooler than 24C. For a fledgling cyclone, this is usually an insurmountable challenge, and so to no surprise, just about all of the deep convection is now gone. In this injured state, it could tend to start drifting along on a more westerly course until it encounters a new patch of favorable SSTs and upper-level winds. More probably, it will go the way of the do-- 97L.. but, I'm not willing to write it off completely just yet, given what it did in its first 24 hours offshore.

Next batter up is coming off roughly just north of 10 or 11, and also looking pretty good. If this one doesn't ramp up right out the gate, it might stay just low enough to slowly and steadily work its way to become something more.


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metwannabe
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81036 - Fri Aug 01 2008 09:05 AM

The cloud mass formerly known as 98L appears to be trying to find new life. It appears to still have a low and is moving towards warmer SST. Storms trying to fire also and I guess if it stays in this weakened state it would continue to move westard. Might not be able to right it off completely just yet.

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
Hurricane Season 2010: 15/8/4


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metwannabe
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81037 - Fri Aug 01 2008 09:09 AM

No sooner than I finish my post I go back to NHC and they have given this some attention:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...ABOUT 675 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING A LIMITED AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY NOT VERY
CONDUCIVE...SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

I really did post that before I read the TWO. lol

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
Hurricane Season 2010: 15/8/4


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cieldumort
Moderator


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Re: Wave Watching [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81038 - Fri Aug 01 2008 12:24 PM

Well, old Invest 98L is now our new 99L.


Not going to beat a dead horse too much on this one, but if you go through the past 72 hours of loops, "98L" ran a course pretty much just like one of those shorter-lived east pac tropical storms: vigorous tropical wave comes off central America (rather than Africa, in 98L's case), convection really goes up once it hits water, tropical depression forms - often becomes a storm, starts to hook too far to the north too fast and ends up hitting cooler waters right away, convection wanes and what is left is a very well-defined low-level swirl. 98L could have been any of those short-lived east pac TCs of the past, but was just in the wrong basin.

Invest "99L" is just now crossing the 26c isotherm, and slowly increasing SSTs at or above 26.5 lie ahead. These might be a little more helpful. At least 26c-28c will certainly not be hurtful, as was the 23-24c 98L found itself over. What is really holding the low level swirl back from doing anything more right now, is the extremely dry environment it finds itself in, and this does not look to be changing any time soon. Its best hope in the near term would be to have a fortuitous healthy burst of convection that just envelops it some, and offering a little bit of a cocoon in an otherwise hostile world in which to grow again.

Given that in its weakened state it is now on a mostly west heading, the longer it doesn't really ramp up, but just barely holds in there, the greater the risk it pulls off a recovery closer to land, and doesn't recurve in time, if at all.


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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: Wave Watching [Re: metwannabe]
      #81039 - Fri Aug 01 2008 12:25 PM

And no sooner did the flare up begin when it subsided.
There is indeed a surface low which has been chugging merrily along due west at about 18N for several days but it is imbedded in DRY air and has no support. The environment ahead of it contains shear from the ULL to the NW of this system...It doesn't look like it will develop until later, if at all. Not much of any immediacy out there.

--------------------
doug


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: doug]
      #81040 - Fri Aug 01 2008 04:27 PM Attachment (180 downloads)

I 'm not sure about 99L. It has the strongest microwave foot print I have seen so far with an invest in this stage, it is moving into warmer SST's as 'Sky of death' (Cieldumort) pointed out and what I consider to be moderate shear 20 knots.See attachment above.If 99L were 5 to 10 degrees of latitude further south I'd say it would be more of a concern.

(Comments on model outputs belong in the Forecast Lounge.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Aug 01 2008 05:08 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81041 - Fri Aug 01 2008 10:12 PM Attachment (217 downloads)

Next up might be the wave formerly located just east of the westernmost tip of Africa and up around 10-11N.

Presently located around 11N 25W, it now appears to have a developing surface low along its axis. Given its lower latitude, moister environment, and lower shear, this feature could very well become something more before 99L might be able to. I have included a picture of it as an attachment.


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weathernet
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Re: Wave & 90L Watching [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81042 - Sat Aug 02 2008 09:39 AM

Its official; as of this morning we now have 99L and 90L to keep an eye on. Will start up a new thread in the forecast lounge on 90L for my own thoughts and any one else's. :?:

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 02 2008 10:06 AM)


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cieldumort
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81044 - Sat Aug 02 2008 10:49 AM

Getting a look at the new visible images out this morning --

Invest 99L is looking surprisingly healthy this morning, and has even started to rate T numbers again. The most recent out of SAB is a T of 1.0, which really looks like it might be raised again come their next update in a few hours.

So far today 99L (old 98) has chased off any dry air intrusions like a champ. It might have a window of 2-3 days before shear would have a chance to force in gobs more dry air, to ramp up. If it can create an upper-level anticyclone within this window, shear may be reduced a great deal going forward.

NRL already has 99's winds up at 30 knots, and just a little more organized convection could earn 99 a number, and perhaps even a name, in short order.

90L is still gliding through a favorably moist atmosphere with shear generally under 25 knots, to as little as 10-15 knots. It is currently analyzed at about 1009mb.

While not a wave, I'm thinking it's time to mention something a little bit closer to home. An old, decaying frontal boundary that attempted to work up a surface low just south of Louisiana earlier this past week, but went inland before anything could really take, has slid back out over the northern GOM. Upper-level high pressure is expected to have a chance to build over this festering old frontal feature during the next few days, and it could try to pull something off with little notice. This is one of the most favored methods of tropical cyclogenesis in this part of the Atlantic.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Northern GOM [Re: cieldumort]
      #81047 - Sat Aug 02 2008 12:52 PM

Beginning to see the low level wind fields supportive of a surface or near-surface Low pressure.
Cyclonic circulation is noted on the NWS wind profiles at New Orleans/ Slidell, Mobile, Eglin AFB and Tallahassee Radars.
Winds speeds are up to at least 30 knots at 15,000 feet at this time, while 1000ft wind speeds are in the 5- 10 knot range at the above stations.

Wind speeds at buoys 42039 and 42040 have been up to 20-25knts but have dropped off a bit in the last two hours.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Wave Watching [Re: cieldumort]
      #81048 - Sat Aug 02 2008 01:15 PM

I agree with regard to the N. Gulf potential cyclogenisis, and N. Fla. radar certainly depicting some rotation ( at some level ). Yet, I would think to truly work its way down to the surface and fully organize, will take a couple days. Am just not yet seeing on vis. satellite all that much evidence of inflow from the east. Granted, a small system need not nearly as much time to develop as a typical tropical wave.

I disagree on 99L and though share your sentiiments on its appearance and obvious circulation. My take however is that we are seeing 99L at its peak and upper level shear may soon start to "de-couple" any existant or developing low level center. Looks to me that the low level is starting to race westward ahead of the convection just a little. I think this may become more evident as time goes on. That all said...., it sure has pulled itself together nicely since yesterday.

90L continues to slowly ( or maybe NOT so slowly ) consolodate, and has a nice overall shape. Hard to see any evidence of circulation yet, but then again its hard to find a decent loop of this critter. If any of the 3 features were to develop further, I believe 90L might be the first to "officially" reach depression ( "officially" because 99L may technically have already crossed that threshold already today ).


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: Wave Watching [Re: weathernet]
      #81049 - Sat Aug 02 2008 01:57 PM

(The main page has direct links to most of the advisories and reposting them just tends to clutter the site. Your repost is likely to be edited down or graveyarded depending on how much content other than the article/advisory is there.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 02 2008 03:00 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Wave Watching [Re: weathernet]
      #81050 - Sat Aug 02 2008 01:57 PM

well looks like we may get a home grown system in the Northern GOM... in the next day or so... this looks a lot better than last weeks feature that moved across the GOM. Looks to me that the mid level center is about 100 miles south of Pensacola... don't really see any signs of a low level center yet... but i think it may try to organize some tonight... GOM SST's are very warm


Vis Loop

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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xxflcyclonexx
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 24
Loc: Charlotte County
Re: Wave Watching [Re: ShanaTX]
      #81055 - Sat Aug 02 2008 04:02 PM

Looking at the infrared loop zoomed in on Florida, the GOM disturbance is clearly becoming more organized near the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/FIRE/fires-fl-ir4-loop.html


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Black Pearl
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 32
Loc: Mobile Bay
Re: Wave Watching [Re: xxflcyclonexx]
      #81058 - Sat Aug 02 2008 07:43 PM

NGOM system is 91L
NRL


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Wave Watching [Re: Black Pearl]
      #81059 - Sat Aug 02 2008 08:42 PM

time permitting... this is really cool close up on 91L

91L Vis

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
GOM 91L [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #81060 - Sat Aug 02 2008 10:18 PM

Late visible, static image of Storm Hunter's post


I'm curious to see what happens to 91L when the MCS moving through MS-AL-GA runs into it at 25kts later tonight.
It could get very interesting. Or not.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: GOM 91L [Re: danielw]
      #81064 - Sun Aug 03 2008 01:06 PM

well we got the official low now... Special Statement was issued just a little bit ago... good thing about recon... they'll have plenty of fuel to burn on this area... so we should have good data for tonights 00Z runs...

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ...............

i was off by about 8-12 hrs... in thinking the low would make it down to the surface... darn

and the image above post dy daniel.. from last night is where the mid level low center made it down to the surface in my opinion.... with pressure's already being low... didn't take much... SST's are very warm in that area... south of PNS. The general thinking on my part... northern TX coast landfall?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Aug 03 2008 01:11 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2263
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Administrative Note [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81071 - Sun Aug 03 2008 04:02 PM

Two items to tale note of:
1) 'bets', 'hunches' and model projection posts belong in the Forecast Lounge.

2) In the last few days there has been quite a few one-line posts. Just a reminder that CFHC is not a chat room and that these types of posts are likely to be deleted or sent to the Graveyard. Your help on this is solicited.
ED


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1070
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Gulf of Mexico Watching and Wave Watching [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81072 - Sun Aug 03 2008 04:03 PM

91L is giving us a run for our money. Looks like recon is very close to closing a center off somewhere in the vicinity of 28N 88W. If they can't close it off, it's not for trying, that's for sure. Pressure may be down around 1007mb, or lower now (based on flight level to surface extrap). Max sustained surface winds outside the coc as measured by SFMR may already be suggesting up to a 35-40 knot range (1-min average). System does not have the best environment for development, sandwiched between too large swaths of hostile wind and/or very dry air, but if it starts to hook more to the west, it could outrun the ULL approaching from its southeast, while also moving along just south of the dry, stable zone to its north. In fact, the ULL to its southeast may stay just far enough away to provide a healthy outflow channel, should 91L organize more.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 995
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Gulf of Mexico Watching and Wave Watching [Re: cieldumort]
      #81073 - Sun Aug 03 2008 04:25 PM

NRL is now listing the Gulf storm as 05L.Noname. Looks like a TD has formed. Recon is currently in the system.

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