craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Here is some recent recon info on Edouard: This info is also on the main page under 'recon info'
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 21:14Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Edouard1
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 20:44:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°12'N 91°30'W (28.20N 91.50W)
B. Center Fix Location: 143 miles (230 km) to the SSE (167°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,427m (4,682ft) at an unspecified standard level
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SW (228°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 307° at 39kts (From the NW at ~ 44.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the SW (228°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,560m (5,118ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,505m (4,938ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph) in the northwest quadrant at 19:08:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RADAR INDICATES CIRCULAR BANDING CONSISTENT WITH FIX ON EAST SIDE, 25 PERCENT COMPLETE.
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
Edited by craigm (Mon Aug 04 2008 05:46 PM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Edouard is undergoing a bit of a metamorphosis this afternoon. As the cyclone continues to improve structurally, its windfield is also expanding, bringing tropical storm force winds to a much wider area. Outflow continues to improve, such that the cyclone is now breathing easier, even a little bit now in the northwest quad. The entire gulf is its oyster, as low level inflow continues to inject warm, moist air into the system. This inflow is doing battle royale against repeated partial dry air intrusions wrapping in from the north and northwest.
Given the ongoing trend of improving structure and deepening pressure, it continues to be entirely reasonable to assume that Edouard may very well make landfall as a high-end tropical storm or low-end hurricane. As the most recent discussion out of points out, there is very little practical difference between the two. Conditions would be very challenging along and near wherever the center makes landfall.. and perhaps a good bit inland, should the cyclone progress at a fast-enough clip. It is always wise to keep in mind that intensity is the most difficult, and often the most erroneous, part of a tropical cyclone forecast.
As for track, Edouard continues to travel a little bit left of many best guesses for today, but is still widely expected to begin a turn more decidedly to the west-northwest, and in fact, now more models are calling for an ever greater hook to the right in response to a passing trof to its north. Along this forecast track, much more of north central Texas may experience numerous showers and possibly some heavier rain squalls with gusty winds.
It is almost a once in generation event for a tropical cyclone to produce sizable swaths of wind damage more than a 100 miles or so inland from the Texas coast, and this is certainly not the main concern with Edouard. Of some concern could be flooding, provided the cyclone slows down, stalls out or just dumps out... but, given that it might try to hitch a faster ride on the coattails of the passing trof, that does not look to be the most probable outcome, at this time.. although, this is truly subject to change.. especially considering how it is still trending a bit more due west than called for.
Brief inland tornadoes are always a threat in Texas from landfalling tropical cyclones, and this threat will likely persist along and to the right of the center of circulation well-inland, and through at least mid-week. Damaging wind gusts produced from downdrafts within some of the stronger supercells may also occur, even long after landfall.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I'm recording the level 3 radar for Edouard now, you can see it at http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?45
From this and Recon it appears that Edouard is slowing or behaving erratically now, and may be influenced a bit north, or more likely some reformation is happening. This should be something to watch through the evening closely.
Edouard is still fighting some dry air too.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Current radar loop from LIX-Slidell,LA is showing what appears to be a slowdown and a slight shift to the North.
I've received at least one PM with the same description. Still looking for more data.
Latest VORTEX message has the pressure at 999mb. While the winds are still on the low end of the Tropical Storm threshold at :
03 AF 08/04 22:18:00Z 999mb (~29.50 inHg)
Highest Inbound Flt. Lvl. Wind 46kts(~52.9mph)
Highest Max Flt. Wind_______49kts(~56.3mph)
Highest Surface Wind_______41kts(~47.1mph)
Pressure is falling slowly, but the wind field has not spun up in response... yet.
Once the eyewall has wrapped or closed Edouard may intensify at a faster pace.
URNT12 KNHC 042243 CCB
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052008
A. 04/22:18:00Z
B. 28 deg 19 min N
091 deg 28 min W
C. NA mb 1423 m
D. 32 kt
E. 307 deg 067 nm
F. 046 deg 037 kt
G. 304 deg 054 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 16 C/ 1566 m
J. 20 C/ 1491 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.03 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0305A EDOUARD1 OB 17 CCB
MAX FL WIND 49 KT N QUAD 21:18:40 Z
MAX OUTBOUND WIND 48 KTS AT 22:23:00 Z
RADAR BANDING CONSISTENT WITH FL CENTER FIX POSITION. BAND CONVECTION HAS REDUCED, BUT ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED.
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 04 2008 07:57 PM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Edouard is still fighting dry air but he is pulling himself together. You can see banding on both radar and sat images.
He is way too close to land to count him out and I think it's possible he could intensify more so tonight.
This is a storm that many people across a wide area will feel weather from him in one form or the other and
tornadoes are expected and may be further away from the center of landfall so this storm should be
monitored carefully.
Also, as he is so close to land any kwirky movements or a faster forward speed could change the picture quickly for both parishes in Louisiana and areas in Texas.
A lot of people could get severe weather from this storm across a wide area and focusing on landfall at Galveston Bay
where tv mets are setting up for good footage would be wrong as there are many river towns and bayou areas that
are not as well known or photogenic that can receive serious damage.
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Storm_Floater_Radar.html
Good loop.
Also... both Sabine River and Galveston Bay are large watershed, estuary areas that have their own ecosystem.
Hard to tell if the movement is off but thanks for the great loop posted, there is so much to look at with a storm this close in it's hard to tell where to look first.
Hope the timing is right and not off on this landfall.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Bad timing on a server outage for satellite coverage of Edouard. Thankfully the storm is near shore and is partially covered by NWS Radar.
Some websites are still operational, but the SSD links are currently out and blank.~danielw
*Details of the Outage:
*
ESPC is not processing GOES-12 (EAST) and GOES-11 (WEST) imagery due to
problems with SATEPSDIST2E and SATEPSDIST3E servers.
A systems administration person is investigating the problem.
*The following products could be affected:
*
All products generated from GOES EAST and WEST data.
*Date and Time of the Outage:
*
8/4/2008, 1800 UTC 02:00 PM EDT
*Length of the Outage:Until further notice
*Contact Point for Questions:
ESPC Operations OCL
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/bulletins.html
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 04 2008 09:59 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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See attached level II nexrad image:
Edouard is a few hrs from making landfall... looks to me the Northern Eyewall is about 15 miles off shore of the TX/LA coast line... pressure is holding around 997mb, but the winds did come up some... recon is just off of cameron, LA... about 7miles offshore, turning and heading back inward to center. Looks like landfall at or near or just west of the border of TX/LA as a strong Tropical Storm... i don't think Edouard will make it to Hurricane strength at this moment... running out of time/water.
UPDATE... Recon went back through... pressure still holding at 997mb
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) in the north quadrant at 7:04:10Z
N. Fix Level: 850mb
Anyone having problems getting AF302 data? it comes and goes... wonder if its an older model
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 05 2008 04:03 AM)
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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According to our local met Ed may be about 30 minutes from landfall. Rain and wind here. Pressure is dropping at Sabine Pass-29.44. Very small
storm but seems to be encompassing Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana. Should have brief heavy downpours throughout the morning.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Inland and winding down. Eduard now goes from a slight risk of wind damage and of tornadoes threat, to increasingly mostly a flood threat. So far today, several inches have fallen in and around the upper Texas coast, including much of the Houston area, and the system is slowly progressing inland.
Edouard has been losing a lot of his deep convection due to all of the hot, dry air that has owned this state, literally choking the cyclone. In this weakening state, it appears the cyclone may actually begin getting pulled into the left side of the cone of uncertainty, in response to the better convection that is closest to and over the water. Eventually, perhaps even many parts of I35 in central Texas will receive at least a couple of tenths of an inch or more.
What becomes a bit more of a challenge to forecasters, and perhaps ultimately emergency managers as well, is how the decay of Edouard plays out. What Texas desperately needs right now is just a really good dousing, just up to the line, and without any of the floods we are often notorious for.
If Edouard unravels and its remnant moisture and vorticity are swept up and away from any number of possible nearby short and longwaves, c'est la vie... If, on the other hand, it slows down and is not ripped apart or dried out, there might even be some pretty hefty nocturnal core rains in addition to daytime activity, over the next few - especially if the remnants somehow stall and spin out over the same general area. That type of set up causes very big headaches around here. Ideally, Texas ends up with something right in the middle of those two extreme possibilities.
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Brett Addison
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 9
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Seems to me like the tropics are winding down. Non of the computer models are picking up on anything developing in the next week or so but that could change at a moments notice. I wonder if we reached the peak of hurricane season last month? It's hard to tell when the normal peak of the hurricane season is still a month away and it doesn't take long for storms to develop. To me it seems the waves coming off Africa aren't as strong as they were back in July.
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Brett Addison
Secretary of the Brevard County Young Democrats
Florida Institute of Technology
Bachelor of Science Astrophysics and Mathematical Sciences
150 West University Blvd
Melbourne, FL 32901
(941) 812-4059
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