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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Watching Wave East of the Lesser Antilles
      #81241 - Mon Aug 11 2008 11:45 AM

9PM EDT 13 August Update

The wave everyone is watching east of the Caribbean (92L) has not developed much today, and may not tomorrow, but is definitely worth keeping a watch on through the weekend it is the time of year where its prudent to watch. Those in Florida and the Southeastern US should take very close note on what this wave is doing over the next few days.

More immediately it may bring some showers to the northern lesser Antilles, and if it develops and doesn't get caught up in the Greater Antilles, could become a threat to the US early-mid next week. I would be watching the model trends closely over the next few days (see the model links below the article for animations, and more at the bottom and others on the Data Links.

Let us know what you think in the forecast lounge, a place for shooting the breeze about the storm (including discussion about the longer range models).

6:30 AM EDT 13 August Update

The basin is active, but nothing is imminent for development today it appears.

Not all that much has changed with the 92L situation since yesterday, it continues to move generally west northwest, and remains generally disorganized, being under some negative influences of shear. It appears this influence may go away at some point, so It may become a depression today. It more likely will not , however it still remains something to be watched for development based on model projections. If it does develop it will likely take some time.

93L to the east of it is also in a similar situation although that is much less likely to have any land impacts at this point.

12 August Update



92L remains the system to watch this week, both in the Leeward Islands and potentially here later, some models (such as the GFDL) put this system in the Bahamas in the weekend which could put the Southeast, the Gulf, or Florida potentially at risk sometime next week Then again, it appears the heading is wrong on the model initializations so it's likely its off a bit too much and would go further west (and south) than indicated.

These models are fairly inaccurate at long range and it does not mean it will do this, but could mean that this system should be monitored closely for the potential over the next several days. Let us know what you think in the forecast lounge

More to come as time progresses...
Mike

Original Update

Remembering that Invest areas are just tropical waves with some potential for additional development (and not 'sure things'), there is really nothing in the Atlantic basin to get concerned about yet. In modest to slightly above normal seasons it is not uncommon for an active July to be followed by a rather quiet August. Examples include 1944 (2 storms), 1966 (1 storm) and 1997 (none in August).

Invest 92L in the central Atlantic well east of the Windward Islands remains very disorganized near 11.6N 48.1W at 11/12Z. The wave is moving to the west northwest at 10-12 knots with most of the convection displaced to the west of the system because of easterly wind shear. The easterly shear should relax somewhat and give this system a small window of opportunity for additional development. If this development occurs (and thats a rather big IF at the moment), steering patterns would place the system near 19.5N 70.5W at 16/12Z moving to the west northwest to northwest at 7 knots. Winds are currently sustained at 20 knots with pressure at 1009MB. An active westerly shear zone from the Yucatan through the Caribbean Sea to the Windward Islands is not expected to change much in the next few days. By late Wednesday, the Invest 92L system will begin to encounter southwesterly wind shear as it approaches the Islands.

Invest 93L in the eastern Atlantic southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has active but disorganized convection near 10.8N 28.8W at 11/12Z. This tropical wave, with sustained winds of 25 knots and a pressure of 1008MB, is moving to the west at 15 knots. Steering patterns would place this system near 18N 51W at 16/12Z with movement to the west northwest at 12 knots.

An area of active convection persists in the southern Caribbean Sea just to the north of Panama and just to the south of the westerly shear zone mentioned above.

Invest 93L probably has the best chance for eventual slow development as it moves within an area of lighter wind shear. The NAO trends notwithstanding, the shear zones in the tropical north Atlantic remain uncommonly strong for this part of the season. Models are really fodder for the Forecast Lounge when the existing patterns of dry air and wind shear simply don't support some of the current model outputs. The recipe for a 'grain of salt' applies quite well here, but we'll keep an eye on these areas just in case the overall pattern should suddenly change.
ED

Lesser Antilles Radar Mosaic
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

92L Event Related Links


float6latest.gif stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 92L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


93L Event Related Links


float7latest.gif stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 93L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 93L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 93L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 93L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 93L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 93L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 93L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Edited by MikeC (Wed Aug 13 2008 11:03 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Looking Around the Basin [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81242 - Mon Aug 11 2008 12:45 PM

Apparently the combination of the model runs and boredom has raised the eyebrows at TPC/ NHC.
RECON is tasked with an INVEST for tomorrow.

Latest SHIPS model has backed down a bit on the Max winds at 120 hours. Now down to 78kts... still a Hurricane.

93L now being run on SHIPS. Looks to be a lot higher in latitude than 92L.
Current 92L position is 11.6N/ 48.1W
93L forecast for nearly the same longitude is at 96hours. 15.6N/ 47.5W. That would make in roughly 4 degrees or 240nm north of 92L's location.

Early SHIPS on 93L look like a Fish Spinner!

NOUS42 KNHC 111530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 11 AUGUST 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z AUGUST 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-072

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROCACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 12/1545Z
D. 14.0N 55.0W
E. 12/1730Z TO 12/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 13/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02DDA CYCLONE
C. 13/0300Z
D. 15.0N 57.0W
E. 13/0500Z TO 13/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
13/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT. NOAA PLANS
TO FLY TWO DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS DEPARTING BARBADOS
AT 13/1800Z AND 14/0600Z.


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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 34
Re: Looking Around the Basin [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81243 - Mon Aug 11 2008 01:13 PM

Over the past few hours, I have been watching the surface circulation die with Invest 92L and a mid-level circulation becoming dominant at around 12.8 N and 50.3 W. Just watch the latest visible loops and you will see what I mean. It appears that Invest 92 is now attempting to form a new circulation center further north and west than the old surface circulation. This still needs to be watched as in the last few frames, convection has increased and become slightly better organized.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Looking Around the Basin [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #81246 - Mon Aug 11 2008 03:57 PM

Its not north and west.. you mean east near 13.7N and 47.5W, The old center has weakened but there is still a weakening midlevel vortex where you said. I feel overtime the LLC mentioned above will be the main feature of intrest but still 2-3days away from St.Martaan (close to).

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Looking Around the Basin [Re: danielw]
      #81247 - Mon Aug 11 2008 04:24 PM

93L is looking much more robust than 92L this afternoon. If that continues, 93L may be named before 92L. Models are a bit interesting in their diversity right now. Some develop and some do not.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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MAR32366
Unregistered




Re: Looking Around the Basin [Re: cchsweatherman]
      #81248 - Mon Aug 11 2008 04:38 PM

There is a more distinct spin over the last few hours with 92L. Thunderstorms forming to the north and west of the circulation and building. May be mid level but its much more visible than this mourning. Still 24-48 hours away but I do see developing system.

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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: Looking Around the Basin [Re: MichaelA]
      #81249 - Mon Aug 11 2008 04:39 PM

What is going on at 25-30N 55W ?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

When you click on HDW-low does that box represent surface winds? I used the search feature at NOAA but it didn't find anything.


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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: Looking Around the Basin [Re: Beach]
      #81250 - Mon Aug 11 2008 04:48 PM

Also...
Looking at the bouys from
31.98 N 69.65 W (31°58'42" N 69°38'56" W) to
24.00 N 70.99 W (23°52'1" N 70°52'12" W)

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Western_Atlantic.shtml

they have all been reporting winds from the S/SW all day


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Freezey
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 21
Loc: Brooksville,Florida
Re: Looking Around the Basin [Re: Beach]
      #81251 - Mon Aug 11 2008 06:59 PM

Besides 92L &93L whats up with this big Blod working its way up under Cuba? it seems to have a bit of circulation.

--------------------
Is it me or am I the Only Person who thinks the NHC Needs Some Better names to go along with our Present Day&time.....?


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Looking Around the Basin [Re: Freezey]
      #81252 - Mon Aug 11 2008 08:03 PM

Having a problem trying to figure out what the timing is on these waves. On one level they barely look developed in any way. The convection on 92 is not near the center and some models had it slowing down as it approached the bahamas/cuba.. others seem to have dropped it.

Any input on what exactly might happen and if 92 will even last?

93 has more running room and 92 has helped wet the atmosphere up a bit for it.

Hard to have models coming so close to our part of the world and yet... nothing seems to be happening in a solid way.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Discussion Excerpts [Re: LoisCane]
      #81253 - Mon Aug 11 2008 11:23 PM

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
227 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2008


A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATES WITH THE WAVE ALONG 78W AND SOUTH OF
19N...WITH CIRCULATION AFFECTING THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
PANAMA/COSTA RICA...WHERE THE 12 UTC RAOB FROM MPCZ SHOWED A VERY
UNCOMMON WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THIS
FLOW THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ IS NOW NORTH OF THE ISTHMUS INTO THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...AND THIS IS TO SUSTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PANAMA INTO EASTERN COSTA RICA/NORTHEAST HONDURAS.
OVERALL EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
40-80MM. THROUGH 48-60 HRS EXPECT A SLIGHT DECREASE TO MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. UNDER FAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY
OF THE SURFACE LOW PERSISTING/BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

VALID 12Z THU AUG 14 2008 - 12Z MON AUG 18 2008

OUT EAST...THE 00Z ECMWF PHASED A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
DEEP SOUTH WITH THE CLOSED CYCLONE IN QUEBEC WITH DRAMATIC
CONSEQUENCES /AN AUGUST NOREASTER./ CONSIDERING THE EARLIER
PREFERENCE OF THE 00Z GFS...AFTER COORDINATING WITH OPC...DECIDED
TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS WITH
THIS FEATURE...JUST IN CASE...KEEPING IT A FLAT WAVE MOVING MORE
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND THAN ADVERTISED ON THE 00Z ECMWF. DOWN
SOUTH...THE LOW MOVING ACROSS CUBA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS A CONTINUATION OF THE TROPICAL LOW COORDINATED BETWEEN HPC/TPC
AT NOON YESTERDAY...WHICH ALSO SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 17 - 21 2008

...LAST NIGHT'S ECMWF MODEL RUN SHOWED A WEAKER TROUGH AND A
STRONGER BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE EAST, BUT THIS MODEL IS SEEN AS AN OUTLIER AT
THIS TIME. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS ABUNDANT RAIN OVER THE SOUTH, SOUTHEAST, AND
EAST COAST AREAS THANKS TO A STRONG INFLUX OF BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY CONSIDER THE IMPACTS OF
ANY PARTICULAR TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEM, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CONSENSUS
OF LAST NIGHT'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SHOWED TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BY THE 19TH. THIS STORM WOULD COME FROM INTENSIFICATION OF
THE CURRENT AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN, WHILE
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT FROM A DISTURBED AREA STILL
FARTHER EAST. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS WHICH STORM WOULD MAKE LANDFALL AND
WHEN AND WHERE THIS WOULD HAPPEN, BUT THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC APPEARS TO BE
ENTERING AN ACTIVE STAGE.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 11 2008 11:31 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


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Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Looking Around the Basin [Re: LoisCane]
      #81254 - Tue Aug 12 2008 12:44 AM

A veritable cornucopia of possibilities exist for the wave/tropical low, 92L, and its brethren a little farther out behind it. Most of the mystery tonight has to do with how developed 92L already is, if it is, and to what extent the ULL to its north-northwest, and then the Bermuda High to follow, will play in its direction and development. With many possibilities, it's almost useless for much speculation until recon actually gets in there, flies the thing, tries to determine if a depression has already developed, or is about to, or is not nearly there at all, and what kind of environment it now finds itself in, now that it has seemingly veered way off course today.

Center reformation(s) and pull from the ULL have yanked the Invest well north of where it was expected to be by now. The Windwards may be close to an all-clear, but steering flow suggests that this northward jog may come to an end within the next 24-48 hours, with another sharp course correction to follow that could send it west, or even southwest.

At this time, based on satellite presentation only, it would be pretty easy for me to find an upgrade to TD possible (Tho a pretty lopsided TD, with convection all along the northern half, and virtually none south, but a depression, nonetheless). However, this assumes that a circulation is still tight and coherent at the surface, which is not at all clear at this time. Recon would help out with this tremendously.

There are reasons why we really need to know if 92L is or is not already a tropical cyclone well beyond the trivia. If a tropical cyclone has formed, or forms by the time recon is in there tomorrow, we might have a much better idea of how it is going to navigate the sidewindery steering currents ahead, and also if it is developed enough, and in enough of the right ways, as to have a better chance at fending off all the shear and dry air surrounding it and laying in wait.

Judging from total precipitable water content loops, 92L is already cocooned within a very symmetrical, spherical juice machine, and could surprise on the upside. But one wouldn't want to be the farm on it.

93L remains broad and elongated, but wrapped within a sub sandwich of deep-layered moisture and relatively low shear. As this system moves along to the west it might be the start of a turning point for more robust development should this elongation start to bunch up some more, allowing for real consolidation.


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Discussion Excerpts [Re: danielw]
      #81255 - Tue Aug 12 2008 04:53 AM

This relates to the post of danielw earlier and although all we have are Invests on the table right now and the following is model related...(Forecast Lounge)...attention is being paid to them and in turn will result in forecasting skill (if it plays out at all). A portion of the Tallahassee Area Forecast Discussion 4:06 AM EDT 8/12/08.....

ALSO THE 00Z EURO IS MORE BULLISH ON
TRACKING A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS CUBA MONDAY AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST GULF TUESDAY. WITH THE AXIS OF THE SHARP UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST...THIS WILL HAVE TO WATCHED CLOSELY.

Edited by Storm Cooper (Tue Aug 12 2008 05:42 AM)


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Discussion Excerpts [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #81257 - Tue Aug 12 2008 07:43 AM Attachment (624 downloads)

92L Looks much much better this morning, with a wave of convection firing up and wrapping around the circulation center. This thing definitly looks like a Tropical Depression to me, which I've added as of this posting time the latest visible satellite imagery -

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/download.php?Number=81257

Edited by JoshuaK (Tue Aug 12 2008 07:44 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Discussion Excerpts [Re: JoshuaK]
      #81259 - Tue Aug 12 2008 01:05 PM

Recon is on it's way to check out 92L now, hopefully we'll learn more this afternoon from that. Right now it's still not likely to develop today.

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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Discussion Excerpts [Re: JoshuaK]
      #81260 - Tue Aug 12 2008 01:40 PM

In the last couple of frames the convection on the NE end is starting to wrap up. The rotation is definitely more pronounced. Also the convection on the southwest side that seemed to be competing is fading. I think we'll have a TD when recon gets there.

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Discussion Excerpts [Re: WeatherNut]
      #81261 - Tue Aug 12 2008 01:43 PM

Recon is there, they have found west winds, it should be a TD. We will see.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
RE: Recon West winds [Re: NewWatcher]
      #81262 - Tue Aug 12 2008 02:04 PM

Do you have anything to back that up with? I cant found any recon reports with west winds at this time.
Wich website did you found that report at.


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DrewC
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 10
Loc: Auburndale, FL
Re: Discussion Excerpts [Re: WeatherNut]
      #81263 - Tue Aug 12 2008 03:29 PM

From looking at the satellite and water vapor loops, it appears that a clear center of rotation is forming today near 17N 52W (@ 3P EST), but the cloud tops have diminished quite a bit in the past couple hours. A question for the mets, is this just a diurnal fluctuation, or is it a product of the center becoming better defined? It does not appear to be from the dry air or shear.

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WF-Ron
Unregistered




Re: RE: Recon West winds [Re: Robert]
      #81264 - Tue Aug 12 2008 03:35 PM


The naval research labs tropical cyclone page has posted a tropical cyclone formation alert for 92L.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Cyclone_Formation_Alert


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