CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Dvorak numbers up to T2.5 on 92L. If indeed the quikscat is right, it might even be upgraded right away to Faye.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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It wont be classified till probably later Saturday afternoon.But it does have a chance with them numbers of 2.5 before it reaches Hisaniola. Land interaction is the problem. It may not even become a storm until it gets north of Cuba or even skim just south of there. Just matters where the center forms or reforms from the trough.
Edited by scottsvb (Fri Aug 15 2008 12:44 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Well we will begin to see how much "heart" this system has. It is not beyond possibility that a COC may take hold SW of the island. There is much debris interferring with a good look at the visible sat. images s it is hard to tell, but structurally it is possible to see banding and the greater part of the convection south and west of PR. Convection will obviously lead to lowering of pressures. Not saying this is happenning, but it is not uncommon for re-formation in weak systems to occur.
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doug
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MikeC
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Quote:
Dvorak numbers up to T2.5 on 92L. If indeed the quikscat is right, it might even be upgraded right away to Faye.
That estimate is also for a point South the western side of Puerto Rico, which is possible too, I figure. Interesting at least.
17.5N 67.2W
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MichaelA
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The radar presentation from PR seems to indicate that the coc, if there is one, is just west of the island this morning. Surface wind observations indicate that also. Still, the surface winds remain rather light.
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Michael
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ltpat228
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Navy just put up 93L!
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...p&TYPE=ssmi
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Adam S
Unregistered
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what are the chances the strom hits Florida? If i had to guess the center is north of Puerto Rico and most storms this time of year go near Florida.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Radar would seem to indicate that the majority of the convective activity is on the southern side of the envelope. Interacation with PR is likely inhibiting much development taking place to the north of the island. This will likely remain the same as the disturbance approaches the DR and Haiti. With surface reports and radar suggesting that if there is a COC it is to the west or west-southwest of PR, then the chance for development is likely to be shortlived in the near term as this centre would be tracking across the terrain of Hispaniola. The other possibility of course is for a COC to form elsewhere within the larger envelope - entirely possible as the system is still in its formative stages.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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MikeC
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Quote:
what are the chances the strom hits Florida? If i had to guess the center is north of Puerto Rico and most storms this time of year go near Florida.
Pretty low right now (but it could change one way or the other later), but that's what the model graphics are for. Look on the main page under 92L.
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Adam S
Unregistered
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I think the center is at 18.2 north does anyone agree.?
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MichaelA
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Also, until there is a definite, sustained closed center, won't the models be somewhat suspect since the initialization is a bit indefinite?
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Michael
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MikeC
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Also, until there is a definite, sustained closed center, won't the models be somewhat suspect since the initialization is a bit indefinite?
Exactly, that is why they aren't the most reliable until the system actually develops.
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metwannabe
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I know the "center" is all over the place right now but the last couple of frames of Vis/Ir Sat loops shows a deep blow up of convection just to the NW of PR and NE of DR. Also the last couple of frames on the PR radar show hints at rotation at that exact location, could this be the forming of the LLC and if so I would think this to be worse case scenario as far as intensity b/c it would keep center over water?
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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Adam S
Unregistered
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look at the convection firing up at 18 north does anyone think this is the center finally forming. I also think once the finds the center it will be a strong tropical storm based on the size and convection of the storm.
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weathernet
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I was just about to post the same sentiments, as did Rich. Basically in 92L's formative stage, it is problematic in cases involving the interaction with land - specifically high terrain, for inflow to not be entirely interupted. Where a tighter more developed core might simply be destroyed altogether, or perhaps jump and reform elsewhere, this is a case where a less organized and broad low is trying to consolodate. Perhaps this goes to the point that we really have quite a broad surface circulation, unlike some other smaller disturbances. Even if 92L were to be upgraded to a tropical depression at this time, one would have a difficult time claiming that the center of the depression is located at....... If pressed to do so, would practically say the center of the depression "was Puerto Rico" - and thus not too scientific.
Until the LLC either fills or gets destroyed by fully moving over land, than we may not realize the next stage of development until the system has both the space and inflow to finally vertically establish itself. Remember, there are large envelope disturbances and waves that in time turn into large and very formidable hurricanes, and others because of their overall size and organization ( given proper conditions to develop ) never really consolodate at all. Smaller tropical cyclones can whip up quicker, deepen faster and perhaps more likely to be severely disrupted by light shear, land, and other factors. I believe we are dealing with a system that is simply broad enough to need the "real estate" and time to finally get its act together. If this in fact occurs in a day or two, and if south of the Greater Antilles, than the models will simply start all over and the potential threat will then be a great deal more clear than it is right now. At this time, I think ( with not a ton of confidence ) that the majority of the remaining circulation will be south of Hispanola rather than north of it.
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Adam S
Unregistered
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I think the center is now west of Puerto Rico and I think its starting to move WNW or due north of west. Does anyone else see what I am seeing? Or is it an Illusion?
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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I personally see what appears as a well organized Tropical Wave about to smack into the "Great Wall Of China". And after impacting with Hispanola, may very possibly ( I think probably ) finally consolodate and become better defined as a depression or storm. It would'nt surprise me if this occured on either north or south coast of the island - could be either. This is a big tropical disturbance soon to be interacting with a big and high elevation land mass. Thereafter, I do not believe Cuba will be nearly as much a hinderance in its future development or potential later possible impacts on where this system may eventually impact. Given this systems history, I would be quite surprised if "now", at this time, it were to suddenly consolodate quickly and suddenly develop and more organized vertically stacked core. :?:
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B_from_NC
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It has been extremely difficult to locate the very broad center with all of the huge flare ups in the mid/upper levels.... However, based on the radar out of PR, and from the visible sat. it looks as though the center is just about to move off of the NW tip of PR. I would expect that this is where the next blow up of convection will be as we now have almost no shear to hamper the vertical lift. We will need to see if it continues more westerly which would run it aground in Hisp. or whether it continues to skirt just to the north of the islands as it has been doing.
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
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This is bringing back memories of Edouard I think, 2006 maybe, struggled to get its act together, and at the last moment gets upto almost hurricane strength. Then it hit a 12,000 ft peak on the edge of Hispanola, severely disrupting its core. Should be interesting to see if this thing will consolidate on either side of the island vs. right over top of it.
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Adam S
Unregistered
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What are the odds the center could be south Puerto Rico. Untill we get a center to 92L we can't say for sure where 92L will go. To me all these mdels are inaccurate and should not be taken seriously.
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