follydude
Registered User
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Posts: 2
Loc: folly beach, south carolina
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from one rookie to another, i'd say it's a cloud top.
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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We're now recording the Dominican Republic Radar image Here.
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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
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New recon is in the air and heading for the storm. Currently just south of Martinique heading northwest towards our Fay want to be...
Edited by CDMOrlando (Fri Aug 15 2008 03:48 PM)
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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: San Angelo, TX
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The satellite presentation has been quite impressive over the past couple of days. I have been quite surprised that the hasn't upgraded this system past a wave since it has, at times, looked more like a strong tropical storm on satellite. It's the whole issue of finding that closed LLC with thunderstorms actually wrapping themselves up around it. What has been happening is that, while there has been a closed LLC at times, the mlc with all of the convection has been behind it and trying to catch up. Therefore keeping this away for "Tropical Cyclone" status. By Sunday, we will have a much clearer picture of what this storm will do.
I can't wait until Sunday
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Matt
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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remember a TD needs a well defined circulation and thunderstorms near its center. Yesterday the LLC was exposed to the WNW of the mass-thunderstorm complex. Today the center is still isnt well-defined but appears to be nearing the eastern tip of the DR. Its hard to tell the exact placement of the center. Recon hopefully will get a fix before it goes over land.
Remember its not how the system looks on IR and sometimes even on radar... if there is no well-defined center (LLC) then it wont be upgraded no matter how it looks.
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Hi,
Please forgive the primitive question, but what should we, in Florida, be on the lookout for exactly? Could this system conceivably turn into a powerful tropical storm or even hurricane and, if yes, how much warning time would we get?
I am asking this because this system is getting closer and closer without looking like its very organized. Could it literally organize overnight and show up in Florida as a hurricane with very little warning time?
Thanks,
VS
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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tampa_looter
Unregistered
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Quote:
What are the odds the center could be south Puerto Rico. Untill we get a center to 92L we can't say for sure where 92L will go. To me all these mdels are inaccurate and should not be taken seriously.
Think you mean Chris 2006
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tampa_looter
Unregistered
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My apologies I was responding to someone else on Page 3 who compared this with edouard of 2006. There was
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Best I can tell, based on surface and buoys obs, as well as radar loops, the weak center of 92's broad circulation may be on the eastern tip of Haiti, and about to pass along the southern half of the island.. possibly skirting the south coast. There are no longer any obs suggesting that a respectable LLC is north of the island. Most likely, we have been seeing a continuation of the past several day's worth of transient LLC formations and reformations within the much broader surface circulation...
And some important distinctions between prior days and this afternoon - the broader surface circulation isn't nearly as broad, now. Also, the possible surface center at the eastern tip of DR/Haiti would be much more co-located with the MLC and right about under the deepest thunderstorms.
Unless the current recon mission finds otherwise, surface observations suggest that the winds really do not yet come close enough to supporting an upgrade to a named storm at this time - and especially considering that the Low is about to travel over some exceedingly high hills and mountains, any appreciable increase in intensity from here is unlikely until it fully jumps these hurdles one way or another (crosses the island, center reformations, scoots to the south or north).
As a precautionary reminder, 92L continues to be very challenging for models to forecast. Until a low level center is fully established, and now also until 92 gets across this island, focusing on the model runs, while sometimes instructional if you know what you are doing, is still largely fool's bait.
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Adam S.
Unregistered
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i think at 5pm tonight we will have a tropical depression for sure and possibly a storm does anyone one else agree? I think the center of the storm is off the coast of Domincan Republic based on radar.
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biff_the_upset
Unregistered
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Tad off topic but models going crazy showing west now and the chances of this entering the Eastern GOM are much higher. and directly over Tampa and some towards the panhandle/Mississippi.
But, how can this survive with land interaction it will be encountering soon?
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Ive been leaning towards a southern scenario scince yesterday when the LLCC was west anigulla when all the convection was NE. and late last night when the heavisest convection was south of purto rico. in last nights IR 30 image loop length from http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ website you could see the midlevel circulation come out of the mas of storms from yesterdays blow up and head north of purto rico trying reform early this morning. But it was LLCC that went south that at night fall exploded as it aprroched purto rico from the E to ESE and appeared to step around the island completely insted of crosinng it, and did that bye going south at one time heading south west for a moment . At that time the mid level circualtion north of the islands kept true and started refiring ahead of the low, the low being a broad area ancompinsing at least 150 miles or more s or sw into the carribean. The possibilitie i belive is that by seperating connection with the mid low through process of crossing purto rico the LLCc finally grabbed something, and thats what we see now. i wonder now if the LLCc going into hati dies does the mid level come back north, or reform south off the south coast near the troughinies.
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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THere is theorie and has merrit, the Whole N NW slanted to SE coast of island of hati is a plain and its not the area where there are 10,000 fott mountian cliifs ect that in the s and SW part if the storm sticks to N coast it could continue to organize during the passage or at least play a stale mate of sorts
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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 92
Loc: NC
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Isn't recon currently in the system? Anyone have any early indications if they found that elusive west wind.
Would appear that the perhaps the best effort at a LLC I have seen with 92L may be just about to enter the eastern tip of DR.
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Right now alot can happen with this.. mostly due to land-interaction. Reason this is forecasted to move more W is cause of a weak system. It probably will eigther stay weak over Cuba or just south of there and get better organized before the turn north on Sunday-Monday timeframe.
Although I always say use the -GFS-ECMWF for guidance, the on this 12Z run seems off slightly during the first 24hrs as it takes it SW for 18hrs around the island...(thats not going to happen). I do think it will move along the S coast of Cuba...how strong it gets and where and how much of a turn N or NW is still a debate and wont know till it happens.
scottsvb
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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it may be a center reformation south of Hispaniola later tonight..but I think the has bad data for the first 24hrs. It will stay weak until Sunday-Monday.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Posts: 429
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If I weren't sitting in Delray Beach Florida, I'd say what an interesting system to watch. I note that more of the models are trending west, but I agree "garbage in/garbage out".
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LIWPB
Registered User
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Posts: 1
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I'm here in West Palm Beach and am keeping a watchful eye. Looking at some of the latest loops however,
it appears to my untrained eye that the entire wave is drifting SW. Would appreciate any feedback from
the mets. Thanks in advance
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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It looks to me like the system is moving due West which may give it a chance to consolidate south of Cuba. It will have to get some distance from Dominica before any significant development occurs. The farther West and South that this system moves, the more likely it will have an effect on Florida or farther West along the Gulf coast. It's definitely worthy of our constant monitoring. There is a convection flare up just East of Turks and Caicos this afternoon within the broader circulation field, but the more concentrated convection remains near the DR for now.
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Michael
PWS
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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Quote:
I'm here in West Palm Beach and am keeping a watchful eye. Looking at some of the latest loops however,
it appears to my untrained eye that the entire wave is drifting SW. Would appreciate any feedback from
the mets. Thanks in advance
I am no met. However, the infrared images can be deceiving since they just translate cloud temperatures within a certain range and can make a storm appear to be moving in one direction when the center really isn't (if the clouds at the center are in the same temp range as others in the system). To me, a better indicator of direction of the center comes from the visible satellite imagery.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
To my untrained eye, it appears that the center of the circulation, such as it is, is heading almost due west, even though some of the heavier convection is indeed moving off to the SW..
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