LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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This wave is not going to go west much longer and it won't be a wave much longer. It should be Fay by Five according to recon info.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
There is no way this storm is going that far west, it will begin to follow the swirl to it's wnw which is going north of west and bend wnw soon and with the front there ... Fay is not going to stay and play in the Carib.
And, it is developing big bands on the north and south and as it strengthens it will feel the pull of the troughs to the north.
Miami TV is breaking in with updates to stay vigilant without panic and think over plans. Miami Dade had a live press conference to update people going into the weekend with proper info and reiterated they are waiting for an upgrade from when they find the center.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Under the circumstances I think this can only be tracked by radar, and that still leaves a lot to be desired as there does not appear to be any actual true LLCoC. My best guess is continued movement parallel to the northern coast but whatever center there is, is over land. Land is really hurting development right now.
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doug
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
This wave is not going to go west much longer and it won't be a wave much longer. It should be Fay by Five according to recon info. There is no way this storm is going that far west, it will begin to follow the swirl to it's wnw which is going north of west and bend wnw soon and with the front there ... Fay is not going to stay and play in the Carib.
And, it is developing big bands on the north and south and as it strengthens it will feel the pull of the troughs to the north.
That may be the case in the near term with the system traversing the spine of Cuba. It's still too early to tell until there is a persistent, well defined CoC.
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Michael
PWS
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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we have Fay
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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There is a plane in the middle of 92L now. Here is some dropsonde data that is about 30mins old from the Mona passage:
Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 19:43Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area that is described by the identifier as a wave (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 14
Part A...
Date: Near the closest hour of 20Z on the 15th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 18.1N 68.4W
Location: 101 miles (163 km) to the ESE (105°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Marsden Square: 043 (About)
Level
Geo. Height
Air Temp.
Dew Point
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
1010mb (29.83 inHg)
Sea Level (Surface)
25.4°C (77.7°F)
24.6°C (76.3°F)
Unavailable
1000mb
91m (299 ft)
24.8°C (76.6°F)
24.2°C (75.6°F)
180° (from the S)
36 knots (41 mph)
925mb
773m (2,536 ft)
20.6°C (69.1°F)
20.6°C (69.1°F)
190° (from the S)
37 knots (43 mph)
850mb
1,504m (4,934 ft)
17.8°C (64.0°F)
17.8°C (64.0°F)
200° (from the SSW)
32 knots (37 mph)
700mb
3,147m (10,325 ft)
8.8°C (47.8°F)
5.4°C (41.7°F)
235° (from the SW)
23 knots (26 mph)
Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 19:30Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.
Remarks Section...
Release Location: 18.08N 68.44W
Release Time: 19:30:46Z
Splash Location: 18.12N 68.42W
Splash Time: 19:35:33Z
Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 185° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 36 knots (41 mph)
Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 200° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 28 knots (32 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 670mb to 1009mb
Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 167 gpm - 17 gpm (548 geo. feet - 56 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 180° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 36 knots (41 mph)
Height of the last reported wind: 17 geopotential meters
Part B: Data For Significant Levels...
Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level
Air Temperature
Dew Point
1010mb (Surface)
25.4°C (77.7°F)
24.6°C (76.3°F)
1003mb
25.0°C (77.0°F)
24.5°C (76.1°F)
929mb
20.8°C (69.4°F)
20.8°C (69.4°F)
751mb
13.0°C (55.4°F)
13.0°C (55.4°F)
686mb
8.0°C (46.4°F)
4.1°C (39.4°F)
670mb
6.8°C (44.2°F)
6.5°C (43.7°F)
Significant Wind Levels...
Level
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
1010mb (Surface)
Unavailable
1009mb
185° (from the S)
33 knots (38 mph)
1001mb
180° (from the S)
36 knots (41 mph)
943mb
190° (from the S)
34 knots (39 mph)
904mb
190° (from the S)
38 knots (44 mph)
869mb
185° (from the S)
31 knots (36 mph)
839mb
205° (from the SSW)
31 knots (36 mph)
781mb
190° (from the S)
26 knots (30 mph)
764mb
205° (from the SSW)
19 knots (22 mph)
732mb
240° (from the WSW)
24 knots (28 mph)
670mb
235° (from the SW)
28 knots (32 mph)
The highest wind observed in the "Significant Wind Levels" section is noted in bold.
---
Dropsonde Diagram:
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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B_from_NC
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Raleigh, NC
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Agreed.... we have Fay...
The more this gets its act together the more quickly the turn to the north will commence. Slight jogs to the NW into the direction of the trough are now more likely than ever as the storm builds in structure. Land of course is a hinderance, (which is what she is over now) but there is a lot of warm water out there so everyone from the Gulf to the SE Coast still needs to watch this one.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Well... the ? is about to be answered... do we have Fay or a TD?
One Navy site has 06L.NONAME and the other has 06.FAY.
The NOAA tropical run suite has:
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2000 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY (AL062008) 20080815 1800 UTC
So what is it? guess will find out in a min or two. By the way i am very suprised they upgraded over land... must be the Doppler Data and the winds offshore that made them UPGRADE? I thought they were waiting for it to close off a center... from what i can tell... i don't see a clear sign of one... but it may be there over the mountains?
UPDATE: looks like 5-day has florida in the cone.. crossing florida moving NE
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Aug 15 2008 08:38 PM)
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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Some Fay stats are up...looks like it's going up the middle of FL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Posts: 429
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NHC has Fay up, they are showing TS up the west coast of Florida. However, the entire state and a lot of the SE is in the 5 day cone. My guess is after they initialize it, they will set it a little further west.
Don't really want a storm, but it would be nice if Lake O got some water.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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so it was a TS as it made landfall? moving west into the mona passage
REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVED INTO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
hmm.... so "Fay" already made one landfall? 
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Aug 15 2008 08:47 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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If the forecast track verifies, the center would be near Punta Gorda on Tuesday afternoon as a strong TS or minimal hurricane. Given the record of the intensity forecasts so far this year and the very warm eastern Gulf waters, I'm a bit wary that Fay may be much stronger than currently forecast. I'll be on high alert for the duration, now.
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Michael
PWS
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AdvAutoBob
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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Quote:
If the forecast track verifies, the center would be near Punta Gorda on Tuesday afternoon as a strong TS or minimal hurricane. Given the record of the intensity forecasts so far this year and the very warm eastern Gulf waters, I'm a bit wary that Fay may be much stronger than currently forecast. I'll be on high alert for the duration, now.
Time to start final preps... though I'll make the decision to accelerate them in the next model run cycle (err on the side of caution)
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"Chance favors the prepared mind"
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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wow the north coast mid level seems to be stealling the convection? wonder if it will blow up there tonight?
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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It's hard to locate the center, but it appears to be quite a bit to the NE of the forecast position. I don't think we can get a good read on its future until it gets more developed.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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Does it kind of look like it is wrapping some and want to form a center? Just my opinion.
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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It's going to be ugly looking until it clears Hispaniola tomorrow. It may even downgrade to a TD while over land tonight. We'll have to wait and see, since it is still very early in development and the models need more data to get a better grip on it.
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Michael
PWS
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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While it makes no difference now, the has made its call, it is Fay, the radar signature does not show any westward component near the center...the apex of the V signature depicted on Radar is on the central southern coast of the island...movement distinclty westward. This is consistent with the official forecast track.
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doug
Edited by doug (Fri Aug 15 2008 11:27 PM)
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enterlaughing
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 9
Loc: Wisconsin
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I am certainly no expert - just moved to Central FL in Fall of 06. I am more used to tornadoes than hurricanes, but am looking forward to learning as much as I can! Through this board, I have been tracking Fay since leaving the Cape Verde Islands. It looks to me that Florida will be soaked whether it's an East coast run or a Gulf run.
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Quote:
If the forecast track verifies, the center would be near Punta Gorda on Tuesday afternoon as a strong TS or minimal hurricane. Given the record of the intensity forecasts so far this year and the very warm eastern Gulf waters, I'm a bit wary that Fay may be much stronger than currently forecast. I'll be on high alert for the duration, now.
Michael, I would have to echo your sentiments here. I was quite surprised after a LONG day getting prepped for Open house tonight and the start of school on Monday, to get home, click on the and find the center of a hurricane cone passing DIRECTLY over my location. OK...I have followed these things long enough not to get too hyper about that 'cone' at this point. Still a jolt like a Cuban espresso! I, too have not been impressed with intensity forcasts this season at all. Checking the southeastern GOM water temps, this thing will have a LOT of heat fuel to work with, especially if it hangs a bit south of Cuba. Also, do not downplay how the interaction with land can pull weaker systems off of the best model quidance tracks. I would say that everyone from the eastern Bahamas to Louisiana needs to watch this closely until the models are in significantly better agreement.......if it gets into the Fla Straits due south of the Keys (as the current forcast suggest), all bets are off on intensity!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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wow... is the mountains helping the storms? 8pm 8/15/08
SHIP OBERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURING MAINLY OVER
WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CENTER OF FAY IS OVER HISPANIOLA.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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