craigm
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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I'm going to stick my neck out a bit and and say this is the COC (not an eye). It will be interesting to see what happens over open water. See attached
Let me qualify that - the COC at the surface is further west than this image - if she gets all the pieces lined up I think we could see some rapid development
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
Edited by craigm (Sat Aug 16 2008 04:26 PM)
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laurie66
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Hi all I am not exactly new to these boards Ive been monitoring them for a long time , you guys are addicting to watch and sometimes funny so anyway Im not a professional either and have never posted but I do live in central east florida and I have a question I would like to ask about Fay.... how close do you think she will come to my area? I have recently moved to Indian Harbor Bch and wonder if I should take preparations to evacuate beachside I do have pets and children( newly single mom) so Im a little nervous on when I should start to worry  I hope it was ok to ask  thank you
laurie
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Loc: Israel
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Quote:
I'm going to stick my neck out a bit and and say this is the COC (not an eye). It will be interesting to see what happens over open water. See attached
It isn't. In fact, you can pretty clearly see the LLC exposed right now on visible.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
I don't expect it to stay exposed that long as convection appears to be trying to wrap itself around the LLC from the blob of convection that Fay was generating over the Caribbean coast of Hispañola.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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B_from_NC
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Raleigh, NC
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Exactly... the center of Fay is currently exposed and well away from any mid/upper level convection. Amazingly it has kept its tight spin together thoughout the evening even after running into highly mountainous Hispanola. We had a very broad circulation center when it entered and a now tight one as it exited. We are also beginning to see that convection is starting to wrap around the CoC so re-intensification is starting already. We now wait to see when the jog north will start to occur as this will once again place the center over land. If she stays out below the Cuban coast (as the is currently predicting for the next 36 hours), then makes a rapid northward turn this will limit land interaction and make those on both So.Fla coasts very uneasy.
B
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watchinout
Verified CFHC User
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I was wondering what the rest of you think about the scenario of Fay going into the gulf and swinging back east making landfall around Cedar Key. I'm not experienced looking at the graphs and stuff but it seems as if the system over Florida now would keep it in the gulf and then pull it back east somewhere around Cedar Key or maybe a little south of there.
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WeatherNut
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I think the mountains on the peninsula are interfering with the convection wrapping around the center...but it will clear that area several hours from now. I dont see anything trying to fire near the center quite yet. If that happens we are looking at a strengthening storm
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Steve H1
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Convection beginning to re-fire near the center just NW of the western tip of Haiti. out to t=36 has Fay refiring just south of central Cuba.
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VolusiaMike
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Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
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Quote:
Hi all I am not exactly new to these boards Ive been monitoring them for a long time , you guys are addicting to watch and sometimes funny so anyway Im not a professional either and have never posted but I do live in central east florida and I have a question I would like to ask about Fay.... how close do you think she will come to my area? I have recently moved to Indian Harbor Bch and wonder if I should take preparations to evacuate beachside I do have pets and children( newly single mom) so Im a little nervous on when I should start to worry I hope it was ok to ask thank you
laurie
Lauire,
Keep abreast of what the storm is doing and the information provided by the local Emergency Management Office. If, and right now it would be a big "if" they call for an evacuation they will provide at least 12 hours of daylight. If you have a place to go for safety you should be thinking about it and talking with whomever you would stay. If you do not, should they announce an evacuation shelter locations will be provided. Many of the shelters now make arrangements for pets, but you will more than likely need a crate.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Recon is about 30 Miles from Center... 10-15 mins... So far est. visual surface winds of 35mph. and SFMR winds showing arouns 35-40mph. Think the center is a little farther north than forecasted... which will mean a shift in the forecast track again to the right some?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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laurie66
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thank you!
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Beaumont, TX
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Be sure and have proof of vaccinations with you if you have to evacuate. Also, plenty of food and water. Battery powered fans are GREAT
for the car. You can even get a desk size one and since often traffic is bumper to bumper these really come in handy with pets and kids if
you have to turn the AC off. Many hotels take pets.
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conschscooter
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Loc: Florida Keys
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Laurie
I live in the Florida Keys and I am putting all my outdoor stuff into the shed, keeping my gas tanks full and preparing for an evacuation order Sunday night or Monday morning. One reliable way to judge when to evacuate is when the schools are closed. My wife is a teacher and she leaves town as soon as the schools close so she gets a head start on crowded roads heading north. She stays in Ocala with a friend, (in2004 when we couldn't catch a break she went to Asheville NC to see her sister a LOT!). I work for the city of Key West and have to stay.
Thats just how we work it ,and I mention it as you are a newcomer to these annoyances.
After Georges and we don't trust intensity forecasts, as the advises you not to. Make up your mind to leave and be safe and do it early, not late, especially as you have children and pets.
conchscooter.blogspot.com
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saluki
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Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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Just did some shopping in Pompano Beach and Fort Lauderdale. Bottled water and batteries are selling fast at Lowe's and Publix, and the gas stations nearest my home already have lengthy lines (probably a 20-minute wait). It's good to see that at least a few people here are taking Fay seriously and being proactive, because the lines will be longer and the supplies shorter tomorrow and early Monday.
Edited by saluki (Sat Aug 16 2008 07:15 PM)
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
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When I go shopping today at Wal Mart, I'll be getting some supplies such as water, Canned Goods ect.
What can I do about my Dog if they tell us we need to go? He is currently not up to date on his shots, and were short on money due to just moving into our apartment this week..
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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KC
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Loc: Naples, FL
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To StrmTrckrMiami - watch what you ask for... it's not a fun experience! That said (and this should probably be in the other forum about local conditions), I hope this helps:
1. Check the Lee Co. Emergency Mgt. website for info about mandatory evacuation areas. There is a link on the main page. When you live in Florida, this is important information! If you are out anywhere today, pick up a copy of a hurricane guide. If not, check the Nbc-2 or News-Press websites.
2. Renter's insurance - too late now. All insurance companies stop writing coverage as soon as there is a named storm.
3. Can't answer that for you. We don't have a definite path and I don't know anything about your windows or the area you live in. Check with the management company or neighbors who have lived there for a while.
4. Get that hurricane guide fast if you don't have the supply list - water, non-perishable foods, flashlights, batteries, weather radio, etc. Again, if you don't have a guide, check the nbc-2 website or that of any of the local stations.
5. No; you never have 100% certainty until it's over top of you. There are many uncertainties and it may take another 24 hours for the path to become more certain (though never 100%).
I suggest that you do your homework quickly. Good luck!
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FIREREALTY
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Loc: BOCA RATON, FL
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Remember, here in Fla,,once a storm gets within the insurance 'cone',,you cannot buy insurance for homes, or contents until the storm passes out of the 'cone'. Generally, that happens 2-3 days before a storm. Insurance agents will tell you when they are 'locked out' of selling policies.
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lunkerhunter
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Lucky for me, we have a pretty decent standing apartment complex called Reflections that we live in, and according to them the structure holds up well. We live on the third floor
CHARLEY WAS NOT A DIRECT HIT ON FORT MYERS SO "ACCORDING TO THEM" DOESN'T MATTER.
1) In the case this storm gets bad, where can I find information on if we are in an evacuation route.
YOU SHOULD PICK UP A LOCAL HURRICANE PLANNER AT ANY OF THE SUPERMARKETS. ALSO PAY ATTENTION TO LOCAL TV & RADIO
2) i do not have renters insurance, but if I get some, can this cover any damage?
INSURANCE COMPANIES WON'T ISSUE IT SINCE THE STORM IS CLOSE.
3) Should we board up any windows even though were on the 3ed floor?
POSSIBLY. WINDS ARE STRONGER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS (3RD FLOOR VS 1ST FLOOR) BUT THE APT COMPLEX MIGHT NOT ALLOW THIS.
4) What types of supplies should we stock up on?
YOU SHOULD PICK UP A LOCAL HURRICANE PLANNER AT ANY OF THE SUPERMARKETS.
5) Is the 100% sure were going to get this storm?
NO. CURRENTLY THERE IS A 9% CHANCE FORT MYERS WILL GET HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BUT EVERYONE IN THE WIDE CONE SHOULD BE PREPARED. LOOK AT THE CONE, NOT THE LINE.
SEE THIS LINK http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/161435.shtml
I'd like to add that Lee County, Florida certainly has been getting strange weather this year.
ACTUALLY IT'S BEEN FAIRLY NORMAL.
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Matthew '16, Hermine '16, Colin '16, Bonnie '10, Fay '08, Wilma, '05, Katrina '05, Jeanne '04, Frances '04, Charley '04 in FTM (drove behind it), Bertha '96, Bob '91, The Blizzard of '78 in NH
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Loc: Manchester, NH
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KC,
Thanks for the advice. I'm just extremely excited and nervous. What will you suggest doing with my internet and important stuff when the storm gets close since I don't have insurance..
As far as everything else, thank you..I guess I should be more prepared next time..because my fiancee JUST NOW said were going to get renters insurance and supplies..
Is this expected to be more than a Cat 1? Cat 1's arent that bad are they?
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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if you are nervous and unsure what to do then go to any supermarket and get the local hurricane planner.....now.
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Matthew '16, Hermine '16, Colin '16, Bonnie '10, Fay '08, Wilma, '05, Katrina '05, Jeanne '04, Frances '04, Charley '04 in FTM (drove behind it), Bertha '96, Bob '91, The Blizzard of '78 in NH
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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In Palm Beach County things are very normal, no gas lines and home depot was empty. As far as being prepared, the best thing to do is not panic. I'm not downplaying the storm, but I'd wait until later tomorrow to decide on shutters. Believe it or not more people get hurt putting up shutters than they do by the storm.
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