Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Update 5:00 AM EDT 17 August 2008
...WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE
DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM
CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
1 AM EDT 17 August 2008 Update
Fay has become a bit better organized this evening, with a well-defined surface circulation traveling just north of due west along the south coast of Cuba. Deep convection is somewhat elongated east-west given the interaction with the Cuban landmass, but as we near the diurnal convective maximum deep convection is starting to become organized over the surface circulation, perhaps signaling the beginning of an intensification trend. Heat content is very high and shear is very low, making inner core processes and landmass interaction the likely limiting factors upon a period of intensification.
Sunday, Fay is expected to continue along its general path paralleling the southern coast of Cuba as it nears the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. Model guidance is tightly clustered on a track that takes it along or near the west coast of the Florida peninsula early-mid week as a minimal hurricane. Needless to say, everyone in Florida needs to be watching this storm during the day Sunday and as we move into the workweek on Monday. We'll have further updates throughout the day Sunday.
5PM EDT 16 August 2008 Update
Fay has weakened a bit, and looks a little ragged on satellite, but the forecast still takes it across Cuba to affect the West Coast of Florida, but all the areas in the cone below need to watch. Currently it is forecast to be a Category 1 hurricane around 90MPH near Sarasota Tuesday. This could be off either way so everyone in the Cone needs to be watching the system closely, especially after it crosses Cuba.
 
From the 5PM 8/16 Discussion:
"When fay is over water... it appears that atmospheric conditions will be favorable for strengthening through 72 hours. Thus... the intensity will be controlled by land interaction and the resulting impacts on the storm structure.
All guidance continues to forecast strengthening... and the intensity forecast follows suit in bet agreement with the ships model. However... this is a low confidence intensity forecast. Fay could strengthen rapidly if it becomes well organized over water, such as while passing south of Cuba,, or over the straits of Florida, on the other hand... it might not strengthen much at all if land interaction prevents organization."
So the current intensity forecast is a compromise, hopefully the forecast is too strong. This is the part that probably causes the hurricane center the most grief with warning issuance.
Right now it is prudent to remain calm, and if you are along the coast, think about doing preparations tomorrow or Monday, and have supplies ready over the next couple fo days.
All watches and warnings for the Bahamas have been dropped.
11AM EDT 16 August 2008 Update
Hurricane Watches up for Cuba, in Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spritius.
Tropical Storm Warnings, up for similar areas in Cuba,
Tropical Storm Watches are up for Jamaica
Nothing Watch/Warning Wise for Florida.
Tropical Storm fay is over water according to the latest advisories, and will enter into Cuba soon. Most of the convection is to the East and South of the system.
The latest forecast track focuses in on the Western Coast of Florida, those along the entire Florida peninsula should keep a very close eye on Fay over the next few days, especially those on the West Coast. Pay attention to local media, officials, and more when it comes to your particular area.
Intensity wise, the Hurricane center has mentioned there is a low confidence, it all hinges on how much land (Cuba) disrupts the system. It could be weaker or stronger than the forecast indicates.
7AM EDT 16 August 2008 Update
Fay continues to present a very difficult forecast, combine very positive conditions for strengthening, with the very negative conditions of land interactions, along with a very oblique angel of approach near Florida, and you have a situation that causes a very large cone.
Everyone in the cone should be paying attention to what Fay does, unfortunately this includes Eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, All of Florida, Georgia, and most of South Carolina coasts right now. Cuba will have to deal with this system as well, but Cuba and Hispaniola may also keep it from gaining too much strength, however, when it does move north of Cuba, conditions in that part of the Gulf/ocean may be conductive for restrengthening. It depends on how much the system gets disrupted while over land.
The Florida Keys, specifically the western keys, have the most to keep an eye on later (Tuesday midday). The west coast of Florida has the highest potential to be impacted right now. The National Hurricane Center's forecast track is likely the best bet for now, but DO NOT focus on the central part, any slight deviation could mean much bigger impacts for the Florida west coast, or up toward the panhandle or points westward. If the system remains intact after getting over land, it may cause watches/warnings over a huge chunk of the coast for the US. Model runs are fairly along the 's track, some bring it in to the Peninsula, others keep it in the Gulf up toward the central Gulf.
More to come as it is learned.
General Fay Related Links:
Florida Emergency Management / floridadisaster.org
Cuban Radar Flhurricane Recording of Cuban Mosaic radar
Skeetobite Track Zoom of Fay
Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Miami FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Melbourne FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)
Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay
Dominican Republic Radar (Flhurricane Recording/Loop of this Radar)
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Barbados Brohav Weather Fax
Full Caribbean Radar Composite
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
San Juan, PR NWS Page
Various Caribbean Radio Stations
DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Fay plotted on Google Map
Fay Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Fay
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of Fay
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fay
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fay (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Fay
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fay
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fay -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Main Update
Tropical Storm Fay continues westward across Hispaniola this early Saturday morning, bringing heavy rainfall to the very mountainous island. Given the impressive mid-level storm organization, Fay is holding its own over the island, leaving Cuba as the last major landmass hurdle before nearing the Florida Straits.
The potential for significant landmass interaction over the next couple of days makes any long-range forecast inherently tricky given that we do not have a good handle on how intense the storm will be once it gets to and leaves Cuba, yet alone the track that it will take across the island. Add in the inherent inability fo the computer models to handle island interaction very well plus the errors that grow in the forecasts as you move out in time and you get a recipe for potential forecast changes down the road.
That said, there is a growing consensus for Fay to emerge from Cuba and take a track paralleling the Florida peninsula. Whether that ends up being just east -- likely for an initially stronger, further north storm or deeper-than-anticipated east coast trough -- or somewhat west of the peninsula -- likely for an initially weaker, further south storm -- remains up in the air. The intensity forecast highly depends upon the degree of organization after Cuba as well as how close to Florida the storm travels thereafter. All other conditions appear favorable for intensification, however.
Everyone from Charleston, SC to New Orleans, LA needs to pay attention to this storm this weekend, particularly those in the entire state of Florida. The angle of approach makes precision key for gauging potential high impact regions, but it's a level of precision that we just do not have the skill to display. With such a wide range of evolutions still in the air, everyone should just keep an eye to the weather this weekend. By late Sunday, we'll have a pretty good idea where Fay is heading and with what sort of intensity.
The Forecast Lounge is available for long-range model discussion and 'shooting the breeze' about the storm.
Elsewhere, the former 93L is no longer a significant development threat given a strong upper low moving into its path just east of the Lesser Antilles. Further east, a well-defined tropical wave is embedded within the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands but is showing no signs of development at this time. Discussion of these features may be found in the Storm Forum or Forecast Lounge.
Edited by MikeC (Sun Aug 17 2008 08:40 AM)
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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Clark just started a new Thread and new Main Page Article above. Keep in mind that the posts there must relate to the Main Page and that there is a Thread already in the Forecast Lounge for model speculation and gut feelings, etc..otherwise it will probably be moved or deleted.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The computer models are in pretty good agreement upon the evolution of the upper-level weather pattern across the United States through the next 72 hours. The three key features will be the following:
1) The westward extent of the subtropical ridge axis across the southeast Atlantic Ocean
2) The depth of the trough across the eastern/northeastern United States
3) The evolution of the cut-off upper low currently across the intermountain west of the United States
The first two are somewhat related to one another; a deeper trough, even by just a hundred miles, will force the western edge of the subtropical ridge to be weaker and/or shifted a bit further east. This will allow for a turn further east, such as is currently shown by the Canadian and models. No model is currently showing a full capture and recurvature, however, given the large distance between the storm and trough, with each drastically slowing the storm down as a ridge builds in across the eastern United States. Conversely, a weaker trough will allow for a stronger ridge, allowing the storm to be steered further west before turning northward.
What should we watch for with these things? Take a look at the upper air data from Florida, the Bahamas (if available), Bermuda, and truthfully the entire eastern seaboard. How are observations every 12 hours comparing to the model analyses and forecasts? If they are comparing poorly, in which direction are they doing so? We are still likely a day or two away from getting a high altitude recon surveillance flight ahead of the storm, making what observations we have now of the utmost importance from an analysis standpoint.
The seasonal trend all summer has been for a deeper east coast trough. The normally reliable and trustworthy , the best forecast model in the world, has been insistent on one of the most eastward tracks of the entire model suite. It is tough to discount that possibility given those two factors, but it is tough to put much stock in it as well given the large latitudinal difference between Fay and the northeast US trough and the number of other forecast models suggesting a track further west. We (and I) don't want to model hug, but the models are tools that can and should be used with the proper understanding.
The evolution of the cut-off low across the intermountain west will be particularly interesting as well. We have a blocking structure in place, somewhat of a cross between an omega and Rex block, across MT/WY/CO this early morning. Blocks by definition are tough to forecast; models often tend to break them down too early and eject their energy toward the east too early. There is pretty good agreement, however, in this cut-off moving into the south-central Plains by Monday and then eastward from there. How far east this feature makes it by Monday will play a large role in how far west Fay makes it: a cut-off that is slower in ejecting will result, all other factors being equal, in a storm that makes it further west -- perhaps on the western edge of the model guidance. A faster ejecting cut-off will result, all other factors being equal, in an earlier turn. Watching the water vapor satellite loop over the weekend will give us all a good idea how this is going to unfold.
All of this discounts storm-scale processes -- land interaction, convective organization, and so on and so forth -- that will play an important role. A deeper storm in the short term is going to be more likely to "feel" the tug of the troughs and find any weakness on the periphery of the subtropical ridge. A weaker storm is going to be more likely to be steered with the low level flow, implying a further west track at least initially. So far, Fay has generally gone south of model forecasts given the slow organization process partially caused by land interaction and center reformation within the deeper convection. Short story long here, let's see what Haiti and Cuba do with the storm before making any drastic calls.
Intensity-wise, discounting land effects both with Cuba and Florida, the upper level pattern is likely to be favorable for intensification in the Caribbean and Gulf with a well-defined upper ridge northeast of the storm, weak upper-level low just ahead of the storm enhancing upper level diffluence, and upper-level low about 15 degrees east of the storm providing an outflow channel. Heat content is very high in the northwest Caribbean Sea and reasonably high in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
That's the setup for now. Wanna discuss a long range forecast? Try the Forecast Lounge 
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Hey anyone have any thoughts on these observations? sems a little out of place but pretty significant 61knt winds.
National Data bouy center
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Aesh
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
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A deeper storm in the short term is going to be more likely to "feel" the tug of the troughs and find any weakness on the periphery of the subtropical ridge. A weaker storm is going to be more likely to be steered with the low level flow, implying a further west track at least initially.
Angelina
Florida Drug Treatment
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DarleneCane
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 20
Loc: Miami Beach, FL
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Her feeder bands and her strong area of convection over water is keeping her stronger than one would think for a storm over land. A good part of her remains over water and this trend will continue even more as she moves west. This can be seen on the water vapor loop here.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
I would also think that as she was intensifying and formed over land she would be less hurt by land than a strong storm that hits land after functioning better over water. I don't know if there is any scientific explanation for this but from observation I have seen the mtns of Haiti have less of an affect on such storms.
As for the high pressure ridge, if Fay intensifies as she may be doing would that not help break down the ridge earlier than expected? The models previously kept Fay as a weaker storm at this point and did not account for an intensification.
The waters of the Windward Passage are hot and depending where she hits it she would be over very warm water for some time leading to further intensification.
I would think the models may shift back to the left somewhat if she does intensify.
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Scratch my back with a lightning bolt
Thunder rolls like a bass drum note
The sound of the weather is Heaven's ragtime band
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Obviously this will shift East and West for a couple of days. This image will update automatically.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I think it is a good time to remind people who maybe new to the forum or new to Florida not to focus on the straight line on the forcast track.If you are in the cone you need to watch this just a closely as if you are on the straight line.This storm is going to be tricky,both for intensity and track,mainly because of it's interaction with land.We should know more after it leaves Cuba.The imitate concern for the U.S. is the keys and ALL of south Florida.It is amazing how this storm has kept it's strength while over land.Don't let this system take you by surprise.if you are in the cone pay close attention to this storm.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by ftlaudbob (Sat Aug 16 2008 08:13 AM)
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
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I'm not trying to alarm anyone, but I think now would be a good time to take a look at your hurricane preparation plans. Especially, your elevation.
To know what you would do if a certain strength storm were to approach or pass by your location. There are a lot of storm surge vunerable areas on
the West coast of Florida, so it's good to know what evacuation zone your in just in case you need to act. Fay is gonna be another one of THOSE storms,
we're just going to have to hold our breath and watch. The models are in fairly good agreement the storm will be in the Eastern Gulf in a few days, so the waiting begins.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Last night there was some speculation of the center reforming near the areas of convection slightly south of its present location. With only a few frames available on the visible, it looks as though this may be happening, just south of the Haiti coast, a few 10ths of a degree south of last position. This will put Fay over water for a longer period, and give the models fits.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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DarleneCane
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 20
Loc: Miami Beach, FL
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I don't think so. One could make an argument for it but if you watch the loop carefully, the visible loop you can see the center with the coordinates to the north of that area. This storm has always had an area of strong convection to the south of the center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html
Either way the satellite presentation is improving with banding more visible.
And, we are beginning to see signs of a sharper turn on a few models that would mean a few degrees further west now do not change the turn later as the turn is pretty evident on the water vapor however the visible shows the center twisting still.
It could relocate but once over water the center will become more evident I think.
Sharp turns in hurricane history happen all the time. Both King and Cleo turned sharply and even though they came from different angles the landfall and track was the same. The reason was the same, they felt the pull of a trough diving down and rode it north. That should not be forgotten.
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Scratch my back with a lightning bolt
Thunder rolls like a bass drum note
The sound of the weather is Heaven's ragtime band
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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I believe that the center is close to or has just exited the coast and it appears that the system is no worse for the wear.
Since Hispañola did nothing to really impede Fay's structure, I see no reason why it can't strengthen to a very strong tropical storm by tomorrow. In fact, the upper level low to the northeast of Fay is providing a rather impressive vent for Fay.
I am looking forward to seeing what the next advisory has to hold for us.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
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I believe that Fay's Center is over the narrow passage of land in Hati's SW corner. If you watch the visible loops this becomes evident. Also if you go back to IR, Fay's coldest cloud tops are warming pretty significantly. At the edge of the island on that peninsula is a 12,000 ft mountain. If Fay's center passes over that, it's likely to do some damage. If the COC can stay north of that location, she may survive with little more damage than has already been done. Should know in the next few hours what kind of impact Hati will have on Fay.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Well, the has it just exiting the coast just before the area where the Peninsula juts out.
But, the very nature of the system has been more of a midlevel system with a weaker surface reflection. I don't believe that Fay will suffer normally the damage that many a vigorous low level circulation has had at the hands of Haiti.
EDIT: Actually, it's well over the water now. It should clear the Peninsula within the next few hours.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
Edited by CaneTrackerInSoFl (Sat Aug 16 2008 10:49 AM)
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DaViking
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 23
Loc: Crystal River, FL
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Pico Duarte in the Dominican Republic is the highest peak in all the Caribbean islands at 10,164 feet.
Pic la Selle is the highest peak in Haiti at 8,793 feet. it is in southern Haiti, near the Dominican border.
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Lived in Florida 31 years and have never been in a hurricane. I lived in Miami in 1992, but was out of country. Sorry Miami. Then moved north in 1999. again, sorry Miami.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Taking into account the latest model runs, the has the center at 26N and 82W just off the coast of Naples Tuesday Morning and a NNW track moving just inland as it moves Northward.
Snce it's the weekend and many of your friends and neighbors may not be keeping close tabs on this storm, Please spread the word that it's quite possible to have Hurricane conditions in SW and West Central Florida by Tuesday morning.
As always listen to your local weather forecasts and now is the time to take some action to be prepared should Faye affect y our area.
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bradrd
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
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The 12Z runs just up have most all shifted way east.Not sure if this is a 1 or 2 run thing but it now seems the main area by the models is the southwest coast of florida and exit out the east.
we shall see what happens in the next few runs.
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
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Cuban Radar from the SE coast of Cuba. This should help with COC location. Looks to be pretty much where says it is, pretty exposed right now..
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0.../gpdMAXw01a.gif
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Last satellite I saw looked like the mountain of Hispanola DID take out a fair amount of convection in the north half of the storm, but DIDN'T disrupt the overall circulation pattern as often happens there. Yes, the models have shifted a bit east, but please don't make much of these run-to-run wobbles until a clear pattern gets established. It seems pretty certain that this is a Florida storm, but that is really about as far as we can go. Be prepared....keep calm....stay tuned.
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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If the storm spends much time over water it could strengthen rapidly. In the event there is an evacuation ordered please take your
pets with you. Or at least make arrangements for them. Pets are not going to be ok tied to a tree in a back yard or even loose (fences
do come down). Leaving the pet in the house while you are gone might not be the best option either
in case you end up being gone longer than expected. There are hotels that take pets.
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