engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 70
Loc:
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Quote:
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everything is wishcasting at this point.
a lot of land interaction ahead - Cuba and SW FL.
the acute angle of approach to SW FL throws a massive monkey wrench in the works.
picking landfall points really only confuses the issue for many "watchers" of this website....
and possibly puts others in harms way if they don't pay attention.
The Cone, not the Line.
So in other words we need to watch the cone, not the lines? so that means any one inside of the cone can get impact, and the line is just..the line? I'm confused..
Yes.
The line is nothing more than a center point of a system maybe a hundred miles wide.
and that center point as well as the track is a PREDICTION
It is not "for sure"
Educated guesstimate
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Outer rain bands approaching the keys:
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rada...mp;animate=true
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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jessiej
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 26
Loc: Pembroke Pines, Fl
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[image]https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645082&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL[/image]
It looks like the center of Fay that is shown on the SWMD Recon site is farther south than the forcast track. If the NW then N turn still occur as the track predicts, this would mean a more northern landfall than the forcast.
Here is the link if the image isn't seen.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645082&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
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Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
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Quote:
Outer rain bands approaching the keys:
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rada...mp;animate=true
It looks on the radar like Fay's outer bands are just pure thunderstorms. Is this how it is for all of the storm? wind and thunderstorms?
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
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Quote:
[image]https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645082&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL[/image]
It looks like the center of Fay that is shown on the SWMD Recon site is farther south than the forcast track. If the NW then N turn still occur as the track predicts, this would mean a more northern landfall than the forcast.
Here is the link if the image isn't seen.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645082&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
Um....
I'm kinda confused..the RECON site shows it more south then the plots, what are the chances of this storm being able to curve upward at us, but due to the warm water it is in (according to RECON) can it strengthen to a Cat 2 and then hit us? I'm so confused and new at this hurricane stuff. Why would the lines be farther north, but RECON found it farther south?
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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stormchaser807
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 3
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We are under hurricane watch here in Fort Myers Florida. Look like we could get a good hit here. Tornado watch is out already because we are at a high risk to be on the front right side of the storm.
School suppose to start Monday but everyone is waiting to see if they postpone that.
We are getting ready here for anything! They said would not come this way. We know how that turned out. They said would be a high end cat 1 or cat 2. Hit us at cat 3.
We are not taking a chance here.
I'll keep you guys posted on how it turns out here in the SW.Florida.
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
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Quote:
We are under hurricane watch here in Fort Myers Florida. Look like we could get a good hit here. Tornado watch is out already because we are at a high risk to be on the front right side of the storm.
School suppose to start Monday but everyone is waiting to see if they postpone that.
We are getting ready here for anything! They said would not come this way. We know how that turned out. They said would be a high end cat 1 or cat 2. Hit us at cat 3.
We are not taking a chance here.
I'll keep you guys posted on how it turns out here in the SW.Florida.
We have a tornado watch now too? It will probably be worst then the June 10th tornado then I presume?
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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So then how are people completely 100% sure Fay is going to strike Fort Myers directly? I'm still confused..As previously stated I've never been through a hurricane in my life, got all my supplies and stuff done, but just unsure as to how and other models like BAMS can predict where she will land, and where to watch it. How sure can we be that Fay is going to be a Cat 1 when she hits Ft Myers? I remember Andrew and on TV, from New Hampshire, and they said then that the hurricanes were unpredictable and could do anything, so how can I be sure that this hurricane will strike me directly? What is the percentage? Why do the graphs keep shifting?
Another thing, you mean to tell me that anyone in the cone will be affected by this storm? So a hurricane is like a massive storm affecting more than one state at a time? This is also confusing to me, because you said the line is the center of the storm, so in essence, the line is the eye? Can someone help? I'm really starting to be confused..
The will never say where or when a storm will hit. The line represents a 2/3 chance of where the eye(or center) of the storm will go. The cone represents the variance of areas as to where the eye will go. Fay has TS winds stretching out 105 miles in either direction, so if you are within 105 miles of the eye the storm will have some effect on you. Obviously the further away, the less of an effect.
There are numerous models used in determining where a storm will go or not go. Sometimes a reliable model gets bad information and spits out a bad line. The looks at all the model runs, plus other factors in an attempt to determine a path. That's the line I would go with, bearing in mind the possible variance.
I am not a met, so I can't give you all the environmental reasons, I just read the tea leaves.
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
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*scratches head confused*
Why is the UKMET, BAMS, BAMD, and BAMM curving Fay out to sea in the GOM? Can someone explain why only the is having it hit Fort Myers?
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
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Quote:
So then how are people completely 100% sure Fay is going to strike Fort Myers directly? I'm still confused..As previously stated I've never been through a hurricane in my life, got all my supplies and stuff done, but just unsure as to how and other models like BAMS can predict where she will land, and where to watch it. How sure can we be that Fay is going to be a Cat 1 when she hits Ft Myers? I remember Andrew and on TV, from New Hampshire, and they said then that the hurricanes were unpredictable and could do anything, so how can I be sure that this hurricane will strike me directly? What is the percentage? Why do the graphs keep shifting?
Another thing, you mean to tell me that anyone in the cone will be affected by this storm? So a hurricane is like a massive storm affecting more than one state at a time? This is also confusing to me, because you said the line is the center of the storm, so in essence, the line is the eye? Can someone help? I'm really starting to be confused..
The will never say where or when a storm will hit. The line represents a 2/3 chance of where the eye(or center) of the storm will go. The cone represents the variance of areas as to where the eye will go. Fay has TS winds stretching out 105 miles in either direction, so if you are within 105 miles of the eye the storm will have some effect on you. Obviously the further away, the less of an effect.
There are numerous models used in determining where a storm will go or not go. Sometimes a reliable model gets bad information and spits out a bad line. The looks at all the model runs, plus other factors in an attempt to determine a path. That's the line I would go with, bearing in mind the possible variance.
I am not a met, so I can't give you all the environmental reasons, I just read the tea leaves.
So we have a 2/3 chance of getting hit, or will we get hit based on the cone of uncertainty? I'm just trying to get myself to come to terms with what to expect. Based on plots, is fort myers going to be a direct Cat 1 hit? How quick can this change?
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 70
Loc:
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"Hit" is a relative term.
This is not like a tornado where there is a single definitive impact point, it is a wide storm.
If you are within the cone, you will feel some effects which can be occasional thunderstorms to constant thunderstorms and high winds.
It is possible for a tornado to spawn within a storm cell.
I'm sure you've been through a few of our afternoon storms, this won't be a whole lot different unless the center goes right over you.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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Quote:
Quote:
So we have a 2/3 chance of getting hit, or will we get hit based on the cone of uncertainty? I'm just trying to get myself to come to terms with what to expect. Based on plots, is fort myers going to be a direct Cat 1 hit? How quick can this change?
A 2/3's chance the storm will go in that direction. I think you're fixating too much on the line. If you are in Fort Myers you will if nothing else fell the effects of a tropical storm. I've been through a few, the wait is sometimes worse than the storm. Have all your prep work done then relax and watch the Olympics tonight.
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West FL Jess
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa Bay
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Quote:
Quote:
So we have a 2/3 chance of getting hit, or will we get hit based on the cone of uncertainty? I'm just trying to get myself to come to terms with what to expect. Based on plots, is fort myers going to be a direct Cat 1 hit? How quick can this change?
You just need to keep watching the news and be prepared because it can change. I don't think anyone is saying they are 100% sure it will hit Ft. Myers. Once it goes over Cuba we will know more, just hang in there and don't panic yet.
~jess~ 
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~jess~
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lcdrgas
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 3
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Curious ..Isn't there another section on the site for these basic questions from the amateurs in the room?
I truly enjoy and value the professional opinions on this site. Been following it since I came to know up close and personal. Nice to not have to wade through a bunch of crap...
Back to lurking and learning...
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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I'm getting a little nervous looking at the new model trends. Especially since Fay is not really vertically stacked yet. Her core is still kinda weak. Which a weaker system i would move a little farther west. Seeing the bams suite have been west of the guidence for the last two days, while the has been on the left side too?? Cuba is a good thing and a bad thing right now, i think.. Close to land keeps it from developing a good core and outflow. But keeps more westerly before turning north?
G-IV is about an 1hr into its mission almost due east of Miami. The AF recon is right along the coast of Cuba flying wnw.
i attached an image
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Aug 17 2008 03:34 PM)
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West FL Jess
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa Bay
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Quote:
Curious ..Isn't there another section on the site for these basic questions from the amateurs in the room?
I truly enjoy and value the professional opinions on this site. Been following it since I came to know up close and personal. Nice to not have to wade through a bunch of crap...
Back to lurking and learning...
I am sure they can try "Hurricane Ask/Tell " Under "General Discussion".... I am sure the Mods will say something soon...
~jess~
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~jess~
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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For some of our newer posters (and a few of our older ones):
It seems like every year I have to post something like this - and this year
is no exception. From the Site Usage Rules:
"Low Content Posts: Please do not make single line posts containing no
content (ie, "cool" "hello", "I agree", or something else completely void of
meaning). Or general cheerleading, for example, if you think someone did a
good job and have nothing else to add send them a PM, it works better for
this. Otherwise posts like these just litter up the forums. Remember,
is not a Chat Room - it is a Niche topic-oriented site, so please attempt to
stay 'on topic' by placing your posts in the proper Forum."
The attempt here is to avoid the use of one-line posts. is not a Chat
Room, it is a site for Forum-oriented dialogue, so please use it that way.
Reviewing many of the posts over the past two days, most of the one-liners
add nothing to the exchange of information. A lot of them ask questions that
have already been answered elsewhere - sometimes more than once. Before you
ask a question, take the time to review some of the other Forums - odds are
that it already has been answered. Use the PM feature to thank someone for
their input. Personal information does not belong on this site - it just
clutters it. Keep in mind that there is another Forum for asking questions
of a more general weather nature - please use it when appropriate. When you
post a one-liner like "I think that its moving WSW" and you don't include
anything else - like WHY you think this - its going to get deleted by the
Moderators. Sometimes we let this stuff go, but when we start to receive a
bunch of complaints from other site users - we attempt to resolve the
problem. Please help us by following the site rules - it makes the job of
site moderation a lot easier ... and it provides for a more enjoyable
experience for all of the site users.
Thanks for your help on this.
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Quote:
Quote:
The line represents a 2/3 chance of where the eye(or center) of the storm will go. The cone represents the variance of areas as to where the eye will go.
No, not correct . . . maybe off topic - and I apologize if it is - but I think important to clarify for anyone relying on that statement. The certainly is not saying there is a 2/3 chance of the center of the storm traveling along "the line." I think you may be referring to some comments from someone at the yesterday which, if I'm correct, were to the effect that there is a 2/3 chance that the center will travel SOMEWHERE in the "cone" (which even implies a 1/3 chance the center will not only be far from "the line," but will be outside "the cone"). Obviously, the 2 are very different.
Even if the "2/3 chance in the cone" is not correct - and I don't think that's actually the definition of the "cone" on the 's own site - the does not yet have the ability to predict this storm, or likely any storm, with that much precision, i.e., to predict with 67% accuracy a line along which the center will travel that far out in time or distance.
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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Brad, your response is fine, however folks let's move the "cone" type questions to the forecast lounge where they are more appropriate. Let's keep the main forum focused on new developments in Fay please.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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It appears to me that Fay is beginning to finally develop an inner core now that it's been out over the water, away from the mountains of eastern Cuba. The convection has almost completely covered the LLC after it appeared to detach itself from the convection earlier today. The southwestern side of the circulation is still lacking but convection has been steadily building around on the southeast to the northwest side (going counter clockwise). It also appears to me at least that the extraneous convection that had refused to consolidate has been shed as the new core is built in Fay.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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