Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward

7PM Update 17 August 2008
Fay is continuing to move mostly west and slightly north, remaining south of Cuba, the forecast track has shifted a bit west, but remains at a very odd angle, so unfortunately any position along Florida may be impacted. The watch area needs to begin preparations, and the rest of Florida needs to watch closely.

The relatively weak and broad nature of the system is causing difficulty trying to keep track of the center of circulation, this system is a huge headache for the National Hurricane Center trying to forecast it.

Until the system crosses Cuba, things will be difficult to predict. The National Hurricane Center compares the difficulty of forecasting the track very similar to what happened with (as far as the landfall forecast, NOT the result or intensity) And this means anywhere along the western coast of Florida, up into the Panhandle need to be watching this one closely. Also the system's convection is mostly on the eastern side, so as it nears Florida likely the chances of weak tornadoes will go up along some of the outer rain bands of the system.

11 AM EDT Update:
The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to Anna Maria Island. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys from south of Ocean Reef to Key West, including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay, and along the Mainland from Card Sound Bridge westward to Anna Maria Island. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Cuba frfom the Provinces of La Habana and Ciudad de la Habana eastward the Sancti Spiritus.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay.

Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Cuba from the Provinces of La Habana and Ciudad de la Habana eastward to Guantanamo, and the Cayman Islands of Cayman Brac and Little Cayman.
Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Southeast Coast of Florida from Ocean Reef northward to Jupiter Inlet, and for Lake Okeechobee. Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
At 11 AM the Tropical Storm Watch is discontinued for the Central Bahamas.

Previous Update
A Hurricane watch is up for the Keys this morning, actually from card sound bridge, south through all the Keys up to Bonita Beach. Tropical Storm Watches are up north of there along the east coast to Jupiter Inlet. Lake Okeechobee also is under a Tropical Storm Watch.

This means hurricane or tropical storm (Respectively) conditions are possible there in 36 hours.

The latest forecast track focuses in on the Western Coast of Florida, those along the entire Florida peninsula should keep a very close eye on Fay over the next few days, especially those on the West Coast. Pay attention to local media, officials, and more when it comes to your particular area. Read the official statements from the National Hurricane Center (Available at the top of the page here, or at the Hurricane Center's web site) as well as the local hurricane statements put out by the national weather service offices in Florida.

Fay strengthened a hair overnight, but the core remained at or just off the shore of Southern Cuba this morning, indications from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft that sampled the air around the storm indicate that the storm appears to be making the turn more northerly soon, however the Cuban government does not allow US government planes to fly over their territory, so no center vortex messages we able to be taken.

Fay this morning looks still rather disorganized on satellite this morning, which is good news, since this will likely keep it from strengthening much while near Cuba.

The forecast track remains similar to the earlier ones, with the largest issue being how much time Fay will get after it crosses Cuba to strengthen along with how weak will Cuba make it. The current thinking is that it will have time to become a category 1 hurricane before landfall. To add to difficulties some of the models are beginning to spread, making the exact track very difficult. The entire west coast of Florida needs to pay attention.

We have a few discussion threads going on Fay, if you would like to discuss Fay's possible impact on Florida, check out here, if you want to let people what you think, or have a gut feeling, or want to shoot the breeze on Fay do that in the Fay forecast Lounge Want to let us know about conditions in your area, any closings, notices, or evacuations, let pass it along in this area. This is done to attempt more order during the flood of information (both good and bad) that will come over the next few days.