StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Loc: Manchester, NH
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Not sure where to post this, but this is a current webcam video of Fay. Feel free to move it where ever it belongs.
http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080818/WEATHER01/80818109/1075
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Also, the outflow looks to be improving in the NW quadrant. I don't see much forward movement either on Key West radar nor on the vis floater loop.
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Michael
PWS
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smorse22
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: North Port, Fl
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Do you see Fay moving westward at all?
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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I edited my earlier post to say I believe its taking a jog to the east which supports the pressure falls on the islands to the east of Key West. This may be temporary, but I can see it moving east
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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zacker20
Weather Watcher
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Yes, the IR satellite clearly shows the storm building back to the west. This is goign to be an interesting system to track throughout the evening. It is VERY possible that the storm could shift back to the west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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I have to agree with Michael, in that I am not seeing any motion per satellite or radar. Must be temporary in that we all know that steering currents are a little fuzzy at the moment, but certainly not without cause for a net northerly component. Given the reported lowering of surface pressure, I think the forward motion has been temporarily halted due to Fay's deepening. I would imagine a slow Northward motion to commence by 8:00 or 9:00pm this evening. If not, than things will certainly get a bit more dicey this evening for all of S. Florida and the Keys.
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zacker20
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weathernet,
Check the NOAA IR satellite... There is a lot of convection building to the west.
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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I would have to agree with this statement also, on the fact that Fay is set to land in Fort Myers, Florida at 12:00am
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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metwannabe
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It could be another "wobble" but last several radar loops looks as if Fay is taking on more of an eastward component.
As many have already posted the organization is definately much improved also. Part of discussion mentioned that "THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS CONTRACTED TO ABOUT 30 N MI". Smaller centers often times means potential for intensification. Don't think enough time for rapid intensification but she is certainly getting stronger and would not let my guard down.
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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vineyardsaker
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Quote:
I have to agree with Michael, in that I am not seeing any motion per satellite or radar.
Could Fay load up a lot more energy from the warm water and make landfall as a Cat2+ or more or is too late in the game for that?
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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smorse22
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From this link doesn't it look like it's moving to the west?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
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zacker20
Weather Watcher
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Quote:
It could be another "wobble" but last several radar loops looks as if Fay is taking on more of an eastward component.
The Key West radar is not conclusive. What you have to look at is the IR Satellite... Earlier today, the storm was very disorganized and broad. The IR satellite picture is showing a deepening of convection on the western side and it is getting symmetrical. Do not focus on the convection to the eastern side, that has been sheared off and is broken away from the COC. The new focus is the blowup of convection on the western side. There could also be a new formation of COC... Zoom in on the western convection and you will definitely see a spinning feature in the center. I don't believe the center is located at Key West. If you compare the Forecast points with the current movement over the past few hours, it is definitely trending more to the west.
We will have to wait and see till 8 pm if this is actually considered a trend but I am betting the motion is more to the NW, not NNW.
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zacker20
Weather Watcher
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Quote:
From this link doesn't it look like it's moving to the west?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
Yes. It definitely does. The 8pm advisory could be updated to reflect a more northwesterly motion.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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I will say the center I saw moving east is not very easy to track in the last couple of frames, and the convection has whipped around (for lack of a better term) the west side. I thought I was seeing another center earlier but lost it so I did not mention it
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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MikeC
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Looked at the radar, IR, WV, and more importantly visible, there is a thunderstorm blowup on the west side, but the center is still pretty much on track or a hair east of what the 's forecast track has.
Another radar view: HCW Level 3 Radar Recording of Fay (may be a little erratic, but should be up most of the time) The Bright red line indicates the 's forecast track.
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Beach
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Yeah I think there will be a big shift at 8 or 11.
http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/buoy/FLbuoy.php
The winds are cranken at the upper keys.
Molasses Creek:
Wind Speed (WSPD): 39 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 44 kts
Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.6 °F
Sumbraro Key
Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 170 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 41 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 48 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.57 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.5 °F
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BillD
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IR can be deceiving. Look at the visible, still a clear rotation just SW of Key West. And it does look like the low level circulation has drifted east just a bit. Fay does look like it has slowed considerably. Very interesting storm to track, I just wish I wasn't so close to it!
Bill
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I think what I was seeing is one of the vorticities that the mentioned at 5p. When I look at the loop Mike provided it looks more like that is the case. It is rotating around something to the west and seemed to be moving east now north
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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kromdog
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Certainly a pump up in activity on the west side
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Does anyone notice the same thing I do that at around 21 it goes out a little and then comes back in?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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