cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Suspect that the overall motion tonight is just about net north. The two very recent center fixes indicate a tiny shift to the NNW from one to another, but this is basically meaningless unless confirmed for several more hours. It is worth noting however, that the most recent fix drops Fay down another mb, while also showing an increasingly warm inner core developing.
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Tropicbird
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 8
Loc: near Homestead, FL
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This storm could be a nice help to dry areas, especially if it can get up into GA. Today in inland South Dade we had about 21/2 inches of rain spread out over the whole day, and little wind. By sunset the rain had stopped and the wind had picked up. About 20-30 mph; no big deal so far. Hoping this storm is a net positive when all is said and done, with some helpful rainfall but not too much damaging wind/torrential rains. We'll see what happens.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I know that as this storm approaches Florida, people are tired and tense and sometimes this will get things heated up on the board and PM'g other posters with some not so nice messages.
I would really appreciate it if everyone could be a little more forgiving and remember that even if you disagree with what someone posts, we shoud still be civil about the way we handle things. We're all here for the same reason.
However, I would also like to point out that we really need to stick to the Forum Rules, so please try and adhere to them as best you can.
Thanks again!
Colleen 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
Edited by Colleen A. (Mon Aug 18 2008 10:17 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Overall the system is still moving N with a dg angle of 5-10dg but a general turn to the NE is expect over the next 6-12hrs making landfall by sunrise and moving across the state Tuesday and exiting somewhere between Vero beach- Daytona beach. Watching the radar, you can see the dry air trough keeping Fay from progressing much past Ft Myers. I think we seen almost all of the due north movement and it will follow the NE moisture flow of the mid-levels. Landfall near Marco island-Bonita Springs looks about right!
It still may make hurricane force by the 5am landfall but right now its a 50-50 chance.
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smorse22
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 17
Loc: North Port, Fl
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In this link it looks like it jumped to the west. What do you think?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
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Quote:
In this link it looks like it jumped to the west. What do you think?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
I disagree. Fay is turning the normal way she should, and to me it looks like she has been in the same position for a while now. Certainly can see she is much more organized now.
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC
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To follow up on Hank's comments about the "winds are going to be over the keys, coastal waters, glades.. maybe over okeechobee" as Fay crosses Fl pen. TC structure is not disrupted that much when it moves over these areas of FL as when they move over other land masses. So I expect that the overall organization of Fay will be fairly intact as it, if it, emerges off east coast into Atlantic. So definately not too early for those along north east shore of Fl, south east Ga to start keeping close eye on storm.
In fact I would expect conditions to be much more favorable for development at that time.... 
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc:
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11:00 PM advisory has Fay moving more NE through the state. Hurricane Watch is no longer in effect north of Anna Maria. Tropical Storm warning is still in effect for this area..
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Just when my local mets had me convinced of the NE movements, they jump in and say, "Now it's moving almost due north." 
Oh well...it'll probably wobble and bobble all night long until it makes landfall, so maybe I'll just stop looking at the loops for a while.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc:
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She seems to like it over the water.
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
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Just what in the heck is Fay doing? I step away for a second and then they downgrade her here saying she is only going to be a storm? What if she curves back to Georgia and takes a hit at us again? I was looking forward to seeing my first storm. Guess everyone is kinda confused as to what Fay's plans are? Anyone have any ideas why shows her going tword across state and then curving toward Georgia?
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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flanewscameraman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 33
Loc: Palm Beach County, FLA
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Here in West Palm Beach its getting a bit gustier, but nothing to write home about. Will be interesting to see what the early morning hours bring...
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Fay is doing exactly what the said she would do, April. The track isn't really all that confusing. It has to make landfall somewhere. The models for the periods later in the week show different scenarios but it's too far out to predict what Fay will do 5 days from now.
As far as looking forward to your first storm, your wish will more than likely be granted...just wait till morning when it's closer to your area and you'll be surprised at what a tropical storm is capable of doing.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
Anyone have any ideas why shows her going tword across state and then curving toward Georgia?
It's not the easiest concept to explain...
There is a big area of high pressure forecast to develop over the eastern US over the next few days. As Fay moves further north, it will 'run into' the fringes of the high and will be steered by the flow around it. As winds flow clockwise around a high, Fay will begin to move westward around the 'edge' of the high.
Does that make any sense?
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Jason Kelley
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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That's the best explanation I've heard all night. Thanks, Jason!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
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I would have to agree. That was a great explanation Jason. Thank you for clarifying. So this High over Florida will take Fay across the state and then the Atlantic will strengthen her and bring her to Georgia?
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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Bev
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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It isn't certain at all what she will do, but some of the models suggest that scenario. To see why the mets consider that a possibility, look at the model runs here:
Spaghetti Models
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Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I would advise everyone to not put a lot of faith in the track at this moment beyond about 48 hrs...it looks solid thru 48, but the the model data REALLY breaks down, and they are using a compromise...the are averaging all the solutions and taking a line down the middle...usually that is very accurate, but in this case with all the divergent modelling it's not going to give you the right answer, more than likely. This is not a knock on the , BTW...the data does not lend itself to a clear cut answer.
The new stalls Fay off of the Cape for about 18 hours, then back across FL, coming out at Tampa, then ANOTHER FL landfall in the Panhandle this weekend near Fort Walton Beach.
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Jason Kelley
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
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Quote:
I would advise everyone to not put a lot of faith in the track at this moment beyond about 48 hrs...it looks solid thru 48, but the the model data REALLY breaks down, and they are using a compromise...the are averaging all the solutions and taking a line down the middle...usually that is very accurate, but in this case with all the divergent modelling it's not going to give you the right answer, more than likely. This is not a knock on the , BTW...the data does not lend itself to a clear cut answer.
The new stalls Fay off of the Cape for about 18 hours, then back across FL, coming out at Tampa, then ANOTHER FL landfall in the Panhandle this weekend near Fort Walton Beach.
Thats weird. Is this normal for a storm like this to do such a thing?
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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You think that one is crazy, look at the 1800 it is even crazier. Guess even after fay crosses state we will not be done with her. Jason what are the chances that these scenarios play out? Seems to me that this would be an anomaly. What do you think??
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