Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Thanks for the tip... Curious, is there an HWRF model link out there? What are your thoughts about this one; reliability?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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ricky
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 7
Loc: Palm City, FL
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It looks like the last couple of radar frames it has started back to the NE.
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sprghill
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 13
Loc: Lake County, FL
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How good are the chances that Fay comming back to the west coast and hitting the tampa northward to citrus
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
Thanks for the tip... Curious, is there an HWRF model link out there? What are your thoughts about this one; reliability?
You can find HWRF plots on most all of the spaghetti plot pages.
Let's just say has a not more confidence in the HWRF than I do.
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Jason Kelley
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gulf coaster
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 1
Loc: Panama City Beach, Florida
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How can I best visualize the weather feature that is going to cause Fay to turn west? What should I be looking for?
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Well... well.. well... Fay is about 20 Miles from the Atlantic... and to me she's not going to make it to the Cape/MLB.. exit... instead she should exit somewhere north near Sebastian, Fl. to palm bay... Which should put her closer to the gulf stream off the SE Florida coast which is warmer than what would be north of the Cape. WHAT has Impressed me is her inner core sturcture has held for over 16 hrs now.. VERY IMPRESSIVE given the dry air around her and the weak shear she had to over come. Interesting to note in the 00Z runs that after the turn to the left.. some of the models that go into GA, actually take another left towards the GOM from southern AL/GA... as a weak low. Another stronger High builds in over the great lake region late this weekend, into next week.
It almost looks like in the last half hr.. her east side of the coc is opening up... dry air? in about an hr.. i tracked her on radar to travel about 7 miles. which i calculate her to exit the coast in 4-6 hrs from now.. it the current heading speed holds.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 19 2008 10:15 PM)
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Jumaduke
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: North Florida
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My thoughts: watching the west side dry up now and contract, if Fay continues EnE - south of Melbourne - she should hit gulf stream sooner than predicted and maybe 30 south of forecast point. Question is: If she runs the coast will the landmass to the west continue the breakdown of left side of her. She may go back to the view we had down by the Keys when she was NOT symmetrical.
WHat do you think?
PS... NW of Gainesville, wondering why these models keep finding a way to mess with us :-)
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Go Gators!
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Heya Everyone,
I've noticed something on radar the last couple of hours that I thought worth mentioning and pointing out: It seems that the inner eyewall is decaying and an outer eyewall becoming dominant. If this is the case, and not simply an artifact of the radar, then that could help maintain Fay's strength as at least part of the eye would be over water.
Of course if that is the case then the eye would be very large, and that would slow any recovery by the storm. Any thoughts?
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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took a break from the radar for a few hours... last i looked it was trudging over northern okeechobee county. expected to see it near yeehaw junction at 11, but there it is in indian river county... edging northeastward and nearing the coastline around sebastian inlet. presentation on radar and satellite has decayed markedly in the last 2-3 hrs, with a noticeable dry slot and a considerable deterioration of the inner eyewall. am willing to bet that will be short lived.. that tomorrow morning the inner eyewall convection will recover as the core moves over water with considerable heat content.
willing to put my future philosophy on the storm out at this time. believe that fay is going to rebuild an inner core tomorrow and deepen rapidly at some point going into thursday. think the track is fairly sound.. would edge my target window more from jacksonville to brunswick (bullseye at the ga/fl border, st marys ga) with a more gradual left turn... think the storm will clear the coastline enough to do some substantial deepening and be a significant hurricane by thursday pm. expect it to remain compact enough that wind damage will be in a relatively narrow swath, say 30-50 miles dia. i don't think the kind of deepening shown on the and hwrf are impossible given the compact nature of the storm. however, counting on odds that eyewall replacement or tepid waters at the immediate coast will have it weakening a tad at landfall. think the official is at the bottom of the range i'd expect for landfall.. best bet winds 80-90kt. minor chance of major hurricane winds, but highly uncertain. expect the storm to be near or over the florida panhandle by sunday.
keep in mind that's just my best guess. if the storm hugs the coastline it may never get above tropical storm status. if it turns left as hard as the global consensus it'll probably be a force to be reckoned with in the gulf. if it swings a wider arc, georgia beware.
HF 0329z20august
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Quote:
Let's just say has a not more confidence in the HWRF than I do.
Jason,
I'm not sure what you mean by this statement. The 12Z HWRF is almost identical to what Fay is actually doing now, moving ENE. This is contrary to what the said Fay would do. Or am I missing something?
Bill
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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well looks like fay will be back over water in about 2-3hrs... she's about 15 miles from where i think she will exit.. coc is about to cross the I-95 area, just SW of Sebastian, Fl area. I think it may take some time for the inner core to build back up.. i do however see storms of the gulf stream building up in feeder bands. So its not out of the question there is good chance she will build back up... I think it will take sometime however. 12-24hrs plus.
To show the coc in 3D i made this radar cut about 10:45pm CDT 3D of Fay crossing I-95 with a collapse on the eastern side of coc. *note* in the center of the image... its not an eye... Fay doesn't have one no more.. its a Center of Circulation with an open/dry area on the east side.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 19 2008 11:58 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Latest SHIPS has Fay turning westward between 30N and 32N toward 87.7 at 120 hours... or the 5 day mark.
SHIPS Intensity stays between her present 50 kts and as high as 65kts at the 60 hour mark. Or Friday morning at sunrise. Or what is normally sunrise without Fay hanging around.
Keep in mind this model and most of the other models are changing quite a bit every 6 hours.
Please check your local NWS office for Statements, Watches and Warnings.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Intriguing.
The 00Z brings Fay back on shore about 24 hrs from now, close to daytona beach, then across the state exiting into the Gulf appx north of Tarpon Springs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fpc.shtml
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
Jason,
I'm not sure what you mean by this statement. The 12Z HWRF is almost identical to what Fay is actually doing now, moving ENE. This is contrary to what the said Fay would do. Or am I missing something?
Bill
I am speaking of the HWRF in general, not of it's current performance...I am not very impressed with the choice of model physics they used.
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Jason Kelley
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Quote:
Intriguing.
The 00Z brings Fay back on shore about 24 hrs from now, close to daytona beach, then across the state exiting into the Gulf appx north of Tarpon Springs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fpc.shtml
That would be quite a prodigious amount of accumulated rain in Central FL at the end of things...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p60_066l.gif
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Pretty much over water now. Now it's time to see what she does, really not in model theory. Though the models and have been good with this most difficult storm.
Wanted to comment that the role of feeder bands has never been so highlighted as with this storm.
That pic up in the corner with the one long red feeder band far from the center keeps pumping back warm, gulfstream tropical moisture to a sytem that was landlocked.
possibly because fay was always strongest as a mid level storm when setting up her structure was always admirable if her center was wanting
that structure didn't fail her and when she hit land she sort of morphed back into a tightly wound system both levels connecting but enhancing each other.
will be very interesting to see what happens but the structure of a storm with good feeder bands is illustrated here with Fay
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Just for kicks...
The 00Z takes fay across the state, across Apalachee Bay, lashes the Panhandle, parks it off of the mouth of the MS River, then moves it BACK east for a 4th landfall near FWB and headed it NE near Dothan, AL.
Pass the Tylenol.
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Jason Kelley
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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What a difference a day can make. I wake up this morning and Fay is forecast to come here as a TD, I come home from work and see that I'm under a Hurricane Watch. Here in Flagler County we BARELY get a bullseye hit from a Hurricane, they seem to pass to our south. However, with Fay, I'm getting some gas for my generator tomorrow.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Well, isn't that a cute little scenario! How much faith do you have in that model? I won't even ask what the implications would be for the west coast of Florida with that scenario.
I am getting FAY-tigued with this storm. It is a bizarre storm to say the least, but I'm ready to give her a free, one way plane ticket to Europe. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I have a lot of faith in the model, but I don't have a lot of faith in that particular solution...but stranger things have happened...I don't remember them, but I am sure they have....LOL
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Jason Kelley
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