pcbjr
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 8
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NWS here (Gainesville) has removed out Tropical Storm Watch from the local "hazardous Weather Conditions" portion of their site, yet she's supposed to come right near per NHS and other forecasts. She looks better on radar and satellite right now. Does that local revision portend some shift in track/strength?
Thanks!
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Take a look at this radar loop (Scroll down a little to get to it). Appears that it could be drifting a TAD West. See what you think...
http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Florida_Doppler_radar_Loops.html
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc:
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It will be interesting to see the 8:00 advisory. It looks like she may have a hard time fighting her way up through Ocala and Gainsville which is the official NHS track.
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pcbjr
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 8
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Quote:
It will be interesting to see the 8:00 advisory. It looks like she may have a hard time fighting her way up through Ocala and Gainesville which is the official NHS track.
So - you think south?
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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Fay is probably making her left turn now. She is out of options so this is it...the question is if she will dip into the GOM for any length of time and gain some power back before the next landfall. I think we are far from done.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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looking on radar..you can see the center of circulation inside the large 50 mile wide "eye" or coc..it seems to be stationary....i think if you look at radar or sat images long enough, these coc's seem to be moving in every direction depending on the circulation..i am waiting to see if the new models still have any hints at a gulf of mexico path..most models have shifted north but the weaker the storm the more difficult the forecast
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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if i doing my calculations right.. the 993mb is about 5 miles NE of the 995mb reading from recon? Figured recon didn't sample the center that well on the first pass, and or she is dropping 2mb's an hour... will see in a little bit... looks like recon is inbound from the north. No doubt on sats and radar her inner core is tightening up... question is when does she start getting pushed to the left.
Interesting note... GPS data from drop in maximum wind band... Is on the NE side. winds at 23ft down to the surface were blowing from 105° (from the ESE) at 52 knots (60 mph)... Thats a pretty good wind run on that feeder band at around 29.4N 79.9W (about 40miles ENE of the coc) Wouldn't be susprised if they bumped Fay up with winds with the pressure drop...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Aug 20 2008 08:05 PM)
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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc:
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NHS 8:00 Advisory:
...FAY BACK OVER WATER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
What most were thinking.....
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watchinout
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 17
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I hate to say it but I think St. Johns, Volusia or Flagler County should prepare for a minimal hurricane Fay looks like she's gonna prove some people wrong again.If she continues to loose 4 mb's every 3 hours that puts her very near hurricane sthenghth by landfall. God this storm sucks!! Also notice the thunderstorms on the west side appear to be tryin to pull inward to the center.maybe a eye?
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Recon just went back through the center about 5mins ago.. and my first view of some of the data... looks to me that Fay may have drifted to the NNW by a few miles.. Pressure around 994-993mb... want know for sure until the GPS dropsonde data is in. But agree with others, she is on the upward trend a little.. and i would expect tonight for 11pm pkg... if trend holds that the TS warnings be upgraded to Hurricane Warnings...
one side note... i think i watched two small vortices spin around in the coc in the last 2 hrs... watching sats to see if we have any t-storm blow ups near the center
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Aug 20 2008 08:24 PM)
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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What's interesting with Fay is that her right side is all ready for hurricane status, but the left side due to land interaction has barely any convection. fay will probably not make Hurricane status but I wouldn't be surprised if the went ahead and issued Hurricane Warnings from Daytona Beach up to St. Augustine due to strong hurricane force wind gusts. I'll tell ya what, I'm hunkering down here at my house and ready to go! Fay is pounding over here with heavy rain and some strong winds, the worst is yet to come in a few hours from now.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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latest recon holds... but slight drift to the nw
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 0:10:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°59'N 80°27'W (28.98N 80.45W)
B. Center Fix Location: 39 miles (63 km) to the ESE (114°) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,369m (4,491ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.32 inHg)
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 22:17:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the N (7°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SURFACE WIND OBSERVED VISUALLY
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Fay getting better organized but lacking a core. They could make this a 65mph storm @ 11pm... if they find winds near 60kts then they will issue hurricane warnings from Titusville-Palm Coast. Landfall probably wont be till early tomorrow or about 8-12hrs from now so it has most of the night. There is a chance she will move onshore sooner since she is only 25miles from the coast.
I'm just wondering what if Fay came up north late last night about 25 miles further east. She would of been offshore and we would probably be talking about a hurricane right now. Anyways It be close but not sure if she will make hurricane status....especially with no core. My path is still south of the and inline with the -ECMWF coming across the state north of Orlando and exiting from Spring hill-Crystal river.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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That's basically my track as well... although I think the exist point could be further south. I definately think the storm will be at least 65mph at 11pm, and could be a cane by then.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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supermom1
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 10
Loc: Spring Hill, FL
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I'm in Spring Hill, if she exits here, what can we expect?
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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc:
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I agree, I just cannot see this storm fighting it's way up through Gainsville and into the panhandle without entering the GOM.
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Even though Palm Coast is in Florida, we barely get hurricane force winds. During 2004 here are the winds from each storm..
Charley - 80 mph.
Frances - 60 mph.
Jeanne - 45-50 mph.
Ivan - 5 mph lol
We always luck out, normally a storm moves north of us, or south. Barely do we get a direct hit, especially from a hurricane! This is going to be very big for us in Palm Coast, expecting lots of power outages, damage, and flooding. I'm pretty sure that my job (Golden Corral) will be closed tomorrow as well as lots of other places.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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pcbjr
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 8
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So - Lake City, Gainesville, Ocala or further south?
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
So - Lake City, Gainesville, Ocala or further south?
Based upon current radar motion, I say further south... possibly much further south... north of Tampa, even.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Rob Moser
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 12
Loc: Naples,FL & Iowa
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Hopefully it won't re-emerge in G.O.M.
Any of you think this may happen????
Think we have been lucky that there was sheer before it hit Cape Romano.
RRM
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