MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Hmm.... peak seemed to be 66 knots at the flight level, with the SFMR picking it up at 52, pressure around 996mb.
Mid to Strong Tropical Storm Gustav very Likely now. Likely that the storm warnings will be upped to hurricane too based on this.
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Hurikid
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 14
Loc: Barbados
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Recon just measured fl winds of 65 knots(74.8 mph). pressure down to 995.8. All of this happening within a few hours. Tropical storms and hurricanes never cease to amaze me
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byrdlh
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 7
Loc: Panama City, FL
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The projected paths seem to vary greatly. What, in the next several days will be steering this storm? I, too, was spared the worst of Fay. It just seems unusual that the plots vary so much.
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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
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Right now high pressure is building in north of the storm, but according to Tampa's mets on the long-term forecast, they are expecting that persistent trough to build in to the southeast states by the weekend. This will either pull the storm towards Florida or away from us.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 17:33:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°49'N 70°30'W (15.8167N 70.5W)
B. Center Fix Location: 189 miles (303 km) to the SSW (192°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: No min. height observation at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 54 nautical miles (62 statute miles) to the NW (322°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 28° at 58kts (From the NNE at ~ 66.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NW (304°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 760m (2,493ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 67 KT SE QUAD 17:36:30 Z
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 25 2008 02:01 PM)
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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I think recon found the center: 924mb flight level
Time:
17:33:00Z
Coordinates:
15.8167N 70.4833W
Acft. Static Air Press:
924.8 mb (~ 27.31 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
647 meters (~ 2,123 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press:
995.8 mb (~ 29.41 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 284° at 3 knots (From the WNW at ~ 3.4 mph)
Air Temp:
21.6°C (~ 70.9°F)
Dew Pt:
20.0°C (~ 68.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind:
7 knots* (~ 8.0 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate:
5 mm/hr* (~ 0.20 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
Edited by craigm (Mon Aug 25 2008 02:06 PM)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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is there any reason why, despite there being tropical storm warnings, that is not issuing an intermediate advisory?
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
The projected paths seem to vary greatly. What, in the next several days will be steering this storm? I, too, was spared the worst of Fay. It just seems unusual that the plots vary so much.
Mostly, it's the lack of initial data being put into the models. That should be corrected soon as more data on the system starts coming in. Looking at the WV loops, there is a trough moving eastward north of TD7/Gustav and then some anticyclonic flow over Florida (outflow from Fay, apparently). The track looks about right for now. Of course, as time progresses, that will be refined.
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Michael
PWS
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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The just called Gustav. An update will be issued within 30 minutes.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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my guess is they would be or have just finished up a conference call with the other nations wx offices. To share data and stuff. advisory should be out soon.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 25 2008 02:12 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS STRENGTHENED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM
GUSTAV WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR. A SPECIAL
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES TO UPDATE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HISPANIOLA.
FORECASTER PASCH
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 25 2008 02:07 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Just posted as an update with an advisory due around 2:30. It is officially TS Gustav with max winds at 60 MPH. Here we go.
I'm wondering why the has been so cautious in classifying these lately. Fay and now Gustav are proving to be much stronger than initially thought.
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Michael
PWS
Edited by MichaelA (Mon Aug 25 2008 02:12 PM)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Wow, recon is reporting a CLOSED EYEWALL. I guess this means it made it to the surface. This is going to ramp up quickly from here on I believe if it can get the outflow going. WV loop shows that to be lacking on the NW side. If this can get ventilated we might have a big problem going forward
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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I'm very interested as to what recon will find when it makes its pass through the northeast eyewall. This storm reminds me of Lenny from a few years ago so much. I distinctly remember Lenny's depression stage as showing what appeared to be an eye and then it spun up quickly from there on its way to a very quirky path in the Caribbean. Hispanola has to be thanking its lucky stars right now that if anything, it will be just a brush by, especially with the way Fay dumped all the rain on Hispanola. Cuba and eventually, Florida (big IF), will definitely have to worry because there is no where for all the water from Fay to go.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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the pkg is out... they didn't move the track.. movement to the NW at 14mph... all watches and warnings were upgrade to the Hurricane side. Note that recon has yet to sample the NE side of the storm... they are headed that way now... flying north ***also looks like in the coming hour the eye should be clearly seen***
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 25 2008 02:28 PM)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Yes and i heard that they found an eyewall, which means hurricane strength is right around the corner. Should definately be upgraded before it hits hispanola, unfortunately. Models are all over the place as they usually are until they get decent recon info input. Will wait for 0z models to come out later on tonight.
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
Edited by NewWatcher (Mon Aug 25 2008 02:40 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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This was a TS yesterday I feel. There was a west wind at Flamingo near Aruba yesterday but there was no recon to confirm nor any bouys to support this. Anyways with that said, the pressure didnt drop from 1007mb to just above 995 in 12hrs, probably was around 1002-1004mb last night and pressure droped in the early morning hours to the current level. The main circulation was just above the surface though winds at the surface yesterday were in excess of 50kts. Now the strongest winds are from the SSW near 64kts. Unless interaction with Haiti occurs earlier than expected (tonight) then there is no reason to feel this isnt a hurricane on the next recon mission later tonight before landfall.
Track should take this near the eastern coast of Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, after that, it just matters on the strength of the ridge, a general west-WNW movement around a ridge over the bahamas-florida will take place, but we dont know yet forsure if this will be on the N or S side of Cuba. The track looks alright for now, especially up to 48hrs. We'll have better confidence after 48hrs on where this will go and who it will affect by Weds.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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looking at the dropsonde data that was dropped at 15.7N 69.2W... there is some "drier" air on the east side of the system.. which is clearly visible in some sats. To me it appears to be wrapping around to the north? in the a data.. there were flying at 5kft
Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level....................................Air Temperature............................... Dew Point
1008mb (Surface)................27.4°C (81.3°F)............................. 23.5°C (74.3°F)
949mb...................................22.4°C (72.3°F)...............................21.4°C (70.5°F)
889mb....................................19.6°C (67.3°F)...............................16.2°C (61.2°F)
850mb....................................16.8°C (62.2°F)................................15.5°C (59.9°F)
843mb.....................................16.0°C (60.8°F)...............................15.0°C (59.0°F)
hmm.... recon is up to 12,500ft heading west off the coast of southern Haiti... not sure if there will be another pass... i figured they base in St. Croix tonight.... but not looking like that.... unless there going over the convection there in? UPDATE: looks like recon is buggin out and headin home to Homestead AFB. (they are over Haiti at 17kft)
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 25 2008 03:31 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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As scottsvb mentioned above, Gustav has probably been with us for awhile now, it's just that ambiguous satellite data and a lack of surface or recon data until this afternoon led to an overly conservative estimate regarding its intensity. It doesn't quite have the look of a storm that is rapidly intensifying, but steady intensification at the very least seems to be underway and likely to continue in the near term. Like Fay, Gustav's fate will be determined by how it interacts with the numerous land masses along its potential track, but it appears that Gustav will be stronger than Fay ever was before encountering any of those land masses.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Did it reform to the NW or move that way. I'm confused because on visible it looks more like it's moving WNW.
Perhaps that's why the models are having a problem with this storm.
Do they have the Gulfstream Jet progged to go in because that would be the biggest help.
Timing here is way off, as was their intensify forecast.
Would like some clear cut info on this storm before we are in the 3 day cone in South Florida?
This is not Fay.. we are talking wind here not a rain storm.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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