scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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The path is a general NW movement with wobbles WNW at times. The main issue on future path is land interaction with Haiti and Cuba, when it makes its west turn N or S of Cuba, then movement and strength and how much more intereaction with Cuba does this have to inpeede strengthening.I suggest we just watch this for the next 36-48hrs cause there is plenty of time to speculate where this will go after weds.
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Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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dry air is probally coming off of venesula land continent, cuss the se qaudrent is pulling air from it. All this should change soon.
Edited by Robert (Mon Aug 25 2008 04:06 PM)
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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
319 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV...
THINK THE NORTHEASTERN SYSTEM THE MODELS SPIN UP IN THE 60S
LONGITUDE WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUSTAV WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON GUSTAVS FUTURE TRACK OTHER THAN LEADING TO SLOW
MOTION...WHICH WAS SEEN WITHIN THE MEAN LAYER WINDS OF THE 00Z
ECMWF WHICH ADVERTISED WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING OF 5 KNOTS NEAR THE
NHC TRACK. THIS CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE...AS
THE GUIDANCE NOW LIES WEST OF THE TRACK. DUE TO A LACK OF
SEPARATION BETWEEN GUSTAV AND THE SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...CHOSE TO DEPICT THE SYSTEM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUSTAV AS A SURFACE TROUGH AFTER COORDINATION
WITH /TPC. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LURED INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO BY A MID-LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE GULF COAST.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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5:00 is out...forecast now right over Cuba, which should significant hinder development, at least in the short term.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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The thin line moved a little west,but the cone is about the same.As we all know this will go back and forth over the coming days.The models are still all over the place on this one.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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I think there needs to be set of consistent model runs with the flight data before we can speculate what will happen. No one knows how land interaction or missing Cuba will affect Gus.
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
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I'm intrigued by to the NW, which will inhibit its movement in that direction - short term - and probably why it's forecast track is shifting west at this time. Gustav is still pretty compact and I'm not sure that previously noted eyewall is uniform through all layers. We've seen some of these tropical storms and minimal hurricanes get torn up by upper levels, and eventually the low-level circulation gets exposed and weakens. As rightly noted, there is great uncertainty in the long term at this point, and very interesting to note that /UK models seemingly weaken Gustav.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Latest vis pic shows new convection developing around the coc. Still, the outflow on the north and northeast is detached from the system. If Gustav runs the spine of Cuba, it will get rather disrupted by that terrain. I'll be watching this intently over the next few days.
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Michael
PWS
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Gustav looks considerably less organized to me than earlier this afternoon, likely due to the proximity to Hispanola. Once it clears the island (assuming it remains south of it), I imagine strengthening will proceed at a swift clip. In the meantime, hopefully it will be held in check.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I think its less proximity to land than the upper flow. The outflow at this point just isn't that impressive. Compare the outflow here to what Fay looked like over Florida. Gustav isn't having a problem firing off convection...its just not evacuating very well right now. That, however, is forecast to change in the next couple of days if it can get underneath an ULH . I found a picture of Fays outflow if you want a look.
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
Edited by WeatherNut (Mon Aug 25 2008 07:29 PM)
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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WN Compare your pic with the current setup. Wave axis is the same SW to NE with cut off low. the outflow channel to the NE of Gustav looks the same only Gustav has much better overall structure and convection. Looks like eye feature is making a comeback also.
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
Edited by craigm (Mon Aug 25 2008 07:51 PM)
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Yo Ho, Edible Yards
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
Loc: Spring Hill, FL
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Off-topic post deleted.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 25 2008 09:19 PM)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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The eye looks to be making a comeback...I agree. My post about the outflow has to do with the length. G's seems to go and get dammed up at some point whereas F's goes almost to Iceland. That was the point I was making. G's structure is much better at this point than F's
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Is anyone else seeing what appears to be a shift to due west for the motion over the last several hours?
Or maybe it's just an expansion to the west, hard to tell for sure...
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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WN agree with your assesment. Fays environment was somewhat different.Here is a time sensitive link to what will keep Gustav moving nw to wnw for a couple days- textbook .Fay did not have this constraint. Although depending on storm relative position these can have either a positive or negative effect on development. You can see the outflow to the NE of Gustav slamming into it. I'm thinking it is having a neutral effect on development right now but will keep Gustav on a more wnw track.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 52
Loc: Treasure Coast FL
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The center is still just in view on Punta Cana (Dominican Republic) radar:
Punta Cana Radar
Looks like west to me.
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Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!
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Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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(Duplicated post - see Forecast Lounge.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 25 2008 10:52 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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looks like recon flew through the center at 05:54:00Z at 16.85N 71.6667W.. possible pressure around 985.9 mb (~ 29.11 inHg)... there at 3,033 meters (~ 9,951 feet). flt. level wind From 331° at 1 knots (From the NNW at ~ 1.1 mph)... they appeared to have hit the NE part of the eyewall.. they came in from NW and then got to the center and then flew to the NE and then turned to the SE..
more data on outbound:
05:58:30Z
16.7667N 71.5W
plane alt. 3,063 meters (~ 10,049 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 201° at 73 knots (From the SSW at ~ 83.9 mph)
Air Temp: 12.0°C (~ 53.6°F)
Dew Pt: 6.6°C (~ 43.9°F) warm core? 
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 75 knots (~ 86.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind: 61 knots (~ 70.1 mph)
seen flight level winds at 10kft as high as 90mph on outbound! (SE side of center)
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 26 2008 02:16 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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interesting vortex report... two eyewalls?
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 5:54:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°51'N 71°39'W (16.85N 71.65W)
B. Center Fix Location: 125 miles (202 km) to the SSE (159°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,002m (9,849ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the WSW (253°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 22° at 57kts (From the NNE at ~ 65.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the W (264°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 986mb (29.12 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 40° to 220° (NE to SW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph) in the west quadrant at 5:51:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 85kts (~ 97.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 6:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SONDE RELEASED 30 SECONDS AFTER FIX / SLP 987 MB
STRONGEST RADAR RETURNS IN NE QUAD OF EYEWALL
so could an eyewall replacement cycle be coming up in the morning?
Winds are at 80... it is a hurricane now per .
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Cooper (Tue Aug 26 2008 02:33 AM)
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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As many of you may have figured on, Gustav will be upgraded at the 5AM Advisory..... from the ...
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR. THIS CHANGE WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 5 AM EDT ADVISORY.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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