JoshuaK
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I think Gustav is pretty much done for. 5PM advisory will probably take him down to 75-80 mph sustained winds at the most.
Hanna continues to improve in her organization, and I wouldn't be suprised if and when it does make landfall, it would do so as a Category 2, maybe even a Cat 3 storm. Remember, there is the Gulf steam to provide warm water for the storm along the US East coast.
I'm pretty sure based on organization that TD9 will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Ike at 5PM as well, this storm bears watching as well, it looks like it may take a similar path to Hanna getting in torwards the Bahamas.
And the wave off of Africa looks like it could become TD10 as early as 5PM, again based on satellite presenation.
A lot going on right now in the tropics.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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I would have to concur with this. This getting close to the peak time of the season and all this activity only shows it to be true.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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FNMOC have TD9 as Ike, and have had for an hour or two. The disturbance off Africa, 99L, is still labelled as 99L both on FNMOC and , so not looking like it will get the upgrade at 5pm. However, with the satellite presentation as it is, it stands a good shot of getting the upgrade as early as 11pm. Recon in Hanna have reported FL winds of 90kts / 104mph. Based on the improving organisation and the data, it looks like Hanna could go Cat 2 in the next 6 hours.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Thanks for the great links, Mag. I just wanted to mention that there a whole truckload of other links listed on the main thread also.
I am having a hard time loading images...all the sites must be on overdrive!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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threw-er-back
Registered User
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Loc:
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Holy Hot Tropics!!!..I go shopping with my bride for a few hrs. and the place turns into a carwash!! I have family in Savannah..not lookin too good for them..
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Lurking to learn
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cate
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Florida
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Great...I live in Hobe Sound, FL (near Jupiter) and my daughter and her family live in Georgia about 35 mi south of Savannah. I'll be sleeping with my TV on the rest of the week! ...after I freeze water bottles, etc.
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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We are gettting some wind and rain from Gustav.
Skies definitely look tropical.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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Hanna definitely looks problematic from both intenisty and the predicted track. Florida is now obviously in the cone. I am not sure if the marshes can take much more in eastern central Florida. I do not wish this, but hanna has the potential of making east central Florida look like another one of the inland lakes.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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The 18Z , FWIW, has Hanna make landfall in central Florida, then drives her up just west of JAX into Georgia. This is bacl west from the 12Z, but it is the 18Z, which some don't hold in as high regard as the 0z and 12Z.
edit by moderator redingtonbeachguy -- and has her going further away from Florida and closer to NC. Let's not panic folks... the models don't seem to be in agreement on anything yet so stick with the cone projection.
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Mon Sep 01 2008 11:22 PM)
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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The pressure continues to slip lower in Pine Cay with pressure 979.6mb, winds have turned from southwest couple hours ago to south-southeast at 45mph, with gusts 55-65mph. Hanna appears to be very near this island or slightly to north.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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You know it's become very windy this afternoon in Miami and it's beginning to get hard to ignore Hanna.
Week ahead has Tuesday PM, Wed and Thursday and rainy and WIND...
Something about Hanna going SSW not just SW bugs me. It might only be 3 mph but its a trend in storms this year to the strength of the high that both Gustav and Hanna went south when things got tough with the high.
How much longer will it go SSW and how far west will it get with that movement? It's as if from the moment she became a hurricane our weather got windier.
Wondering what the graphics will show at 11.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html
Hard for me to buy a sharp left turn. Yes, was good with Gustav but Hanna has been hard to define even by their own description.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Hanna has been generating remarkably intense and persistent convection today, in the face of strong northerly shear. The shear may actually be helping to generate and maintain the deep convection, much like wind shear can do in the mid-latitudes. However, the shear also results in an inefficient intensification process. Hanna has been strengthening, but only because of the top-of-the-scale intense convection it has been generating. If that convection flares out while Hanna is still in the strong shear environment, which is certainly possible, it would rapidly weaken. It looks like the environment could become more favorable after about 36-48 hours, but there is wide range of possibilities as to how strong Hanna will be at that point.
Hanna's motion will likely be somewhat erratic for awhile, strongly influenced by internal processes related to the intense convection it is currently generating. There is still pretty good agreement on an eventual northwest track, though.
Ike looks like it will be a player down the road, but lots of things can happen between now and when it would become a threat to the U.S.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Tue Sep 02 2008 12:11 AM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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For people looking for the nearest weather station with pressure readings to the center of Hanna - here is the Pine Cay personal weather station:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPINECAY2
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jessiej
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Pembroke Pines, Fl
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Since Hanna is a stronger storm than predicted, wouldn't she be more influenced by Gustav's outflow and head in a more southwestern direction before the ridge builds in? It seems like the UKMET is the only model that has consistantly kept her on a southwest course before the northern turn. The discussion and Max Mayfield point out that because of the reliability of this model, this is the reason the track is to the west of the consensous of the tracks.
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Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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I did not suggest panic Mr. Moderator. Just pointing out the fact that the 18Z was further west, and yes I know the is further east. Both of these models have been swapping trends over the last few runs. Until we get some movement from Hanna, we won't know what her intentions are. Just pointing out that in general, the public is quite unaware of Hanna as a threat. My mother in Law in Stuart FL, said today "It's going to North Carolina." That is what J. Q Public believes right now.
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Benny
Registered User
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Loc: Pahoa, HI
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OK, what is Hanna doing? Checking the AVN loop, it looks to she "blew up", with an anticyclonic bit of convection blowing off to the southeast,. Perhaps this is the shear from the northwest taking its toll in a big way? Or is this something else?
Here's the loop to which I refer:
Hanna Floater AVN Loop
Starts about 23:15 Z and runs to 0145 Z
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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One thing that might have weakened Hanna is that she has been sitting over one location for a day now, and the ocean heat content is fairly low there, as you can see from this image:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2008244ca.jpg
I'm guessing that the warm water has essentially been depleted under her, and she's being hurt by cooler deeper waters impacting her.
Just a guess, but it follows from past storms.
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KikiFla
Registered User
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Loc: Miami, FL
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I completely agree with Steve. The is so unsure of Hanna's track that it includes Miami all the way up to the Carolinas in the cone...... Yet.... The Weather Channel and most media leave out a big portion of the cone. Does anyone know why they do this? Isn't this irresponsible.... shows one thing.... and the TV shows another.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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The media have their one forecasters as well. They don't have to follow the . They also don't have the same accountability as the does.
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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I don't get it with Hanna. Some models (NOGAPS/LBAR) now have Hanna making landfall around Daytona Beach as a Cat2 while other have her go much further north. How much of a threat is she to Volusia County right now?
I know that during hurricane season one should be prepared and my family and I have prepared everything possible. But we still need to plan our week and, depending on the storm surge risk, we might have to evacuate (with three kids and two dogs  ).
The 11PM probability cone now goes from Miami to Cape Cod! And since intensity predictions are even less accurate I am really getting concerned with the possibility that we might be told with very little warning time "oh, by the way, there is a Cat3+ which will make landfall over your house tomorrow".
So I really would appreciate some informed guesstimates about what Hanna is likely to do or not do.
Thanks,
VS
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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