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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: NHC 11PM is very conservative on Ike's future intensity [Re: TheElNino1]
      #84744 - Tue Sep 09 2008 11:08 PM

I believe Ike has stalled. I believe this was something that might have been anticipated as there is a trough to the north/northwest. He should resume a WNW path. In the last 6 frames though. he ain't moving.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 989
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #84745 - Tue Sep 09 2008 11:30 PM

Look at the raw Dvorak numbers out of CMISS! Up to 5.7 with the 3-hour average still only 3.9, which matches the recorded wind speeds. Once the winds catch up to this strengthening, 5.7 indicates that it should become a strong Cat 3.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt09L.html

This is a storm I would definitely keep a close eye on, considering it is still over that cooler pool of water in the gulf, and won't reach the loop current until sometime tomorrow.

--

Recon HDOB: >50kt surface winds over more than 110mi radius. The plane hasn't found their edge yet in the northern quadrant, and it's about 110mi from the eye. Further, except for one or two HDOB points, it never drops under 50kts that entire distance!

Edit: Recon found the edge of 50kt surface winds at about 120 miles out!

--

Also, look at the spin on that storm! The radius of that convective spiral (the north/south convective ring outside the core) is about 100 miles out. That's about 620 miles circumference, and it has rotated 180 degrees in 4.5 hours. That is a rotational speed of 60 kts or 70mph!

Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Sep 09 2008 11:47 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: NHC 11PM is very conservative on Ike's future intensity [Re: Steve H1]
      #84746 - Tue Sep 09 2008 11:46 PM

Ike is a fascinating storm to watch on satellite loops. It is really giving a pinwheel effect with two lobes of convection rotating around a small inner core. If you watch closely, you can see those two lobes moving in an almost perfect circle around the center. Recon obs indicate an outer wind maximum at the radius where those lobes are rotating, where the winds have been observed as strong or stronger than in the inner core. That outer radius is almost functioning as a very wide concentric eyewall.

As long as the convection on the outer band of the storm is as strong or stronger than that in the inner core, it will be a struggle for Ike to deepen very rapidly. The system as a whole is becoming stronger, but much of the energy is apparently being used to expand the size of the storm and maintain a large radius of strong winds, rather than being focused near the center. This is probably too simple of an explanation, but Ike's small inner core is basically competing with its outer band right now.

When Ike first hit Cuba, it was in the midst of an eyewall replacement cycle that it never seemed to finish. Ever since then, it seems to have exhibited an outer wind maximum, if not always an outer eyewall. I am not an expert on hurricane dynamics, but I would guess that the disruption from the outer wind max will not go away until an eyewall cycle is completed. Whatever the case, the inner core will have to take over at some point if Ike is going to significantly intensify.


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: NHC 11PM is very conservative on Ike's future intensity [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84750 - Wed Sep 10 2008 03:20 AM

Wel Ike seems to be giving it a shot at organising better. The maximum surface winds reported by recon at 0600z were just 6 miles NW of the centre. However, peak flight level winds were reported some 83 miles northwest of the centre. Ike also has an elliptical eye some 20 miles long and 10 miles wide. Given the fact that the eye seen earlier in IR imagery has now gone, and microwave data suggesting the possibility of a second outer eye, perhaps Ike is undergoing some ERC. This would also explain the overall expansion of the storm to a degree too.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 989
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: NHC 11PM is very conservative on Ike's future intensity [Re: Rich B]
      #84751 - Wed Sep 10 2008 03:32 AM

Eyewall dropsonde just found: 91kt surface winds

Vortex Recon:

URNT12 KNHC 100743
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 10/07:08:30Z
B. 23 deg 27 min N
084 deg 40 min W
C. 700 mb 2785 m
D. 76 kt
E. 021 deg 5 nm
F. 116 deg 072 kt
G. 025 deg 008 nm
H. 964 mb
I. 10 C/ 3052 m
J. 15 C/ 3050 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN W
M. E30/20/10

N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 1709A IKE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 81 KT NE QUAD 06:24:00 Z

Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Sep 10 2008 03:50 AM)


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: NHC 11PM is very conservative on Ike's future intensity [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84752 - Wed Sep 10 2008 03:43 AM

Yes, that´s frightening.
I don´t think of a ERC but of violent restructurings around the center. The convection is bursting heavely and the center is quite asymetrical. Ithink, this violent processes around the center will go on for a while, until a strong, more symetrical center is formed. But all signs are for intensification now, may be also periods of rapid intensification.
There had been already a period of those violent processes around the center of Ike after the strong shear relaxed and the asymtrical center had become more symetrical ( somewhere before reaching the Bahamas).


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
6am EDT Vortex [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84755 - Wed Sep 10 2008 07:30 AM

URNT12 KNHC 101016
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 10/09:59:00Z
B. 23 deg 46 min N
085 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2768 m
D. 62 kt
E. 197 deg 4 nm
F. 284 deg 055 kt
G. 200 deg 005 nm
H. EXTRAP 963 mb
I. 10 C/ 3045 m
J. 15 C/ 3047 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C10
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF304 1709A IKE OB 20
MAX FL WIND AND MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OUTBOUND 83 KT NE QUAD 10:02:00 Z MAX SFC WIND OUTBOUND 74KTS NE QUAD 10:01:40Z.
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
STRONG CONVECTION NE QUAD, OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING

edit-Lightning is normally found in tropical cyclones that are increasing in intensity~danielw

Using a modified SSHS a 963mb pressure should be nearly equal to a 112 mph surface wind, using the pressure-wind relationship.
So there is a strong disparity between what Ike's present winds are and what they could be.

Easy formula for the surface wind/ pressure relationship is 1000mb - current pressure = N.
N+75 equals the maximum possible surface wind speed in mph. This formula is not set in stone as Katrina, Rita and Wilma all exceeded the pressure/ wind relationship by quite a bit.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 7am EDT EYE Drop [Re: danielw]
      #84757 - Wed Sep 10 2008 08:03 AM

UZNT13 KNHC 101157
XXAA 60127 99238 70853 08135 99959

23.8N/ 85.3W 959mb


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 989
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: 7am EDT EYE Drop [Re: danielw]
      #84758 - Wed Sep 10 2008 08:07 AM

(delete me - daniel and I are posting the same stuff at the same time)

Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Sep 10 2008 08:13 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 7am EDT EYE Drop [Re: danielw]
      #84759 - Wed Sep 10 2008 08:12 AM

URNT12 KNHC 101201
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 10/11:44:10Z
B. 23 deg 47 min N
085 deg 18 min W
C. 700 mb 2745 m
D. 78 kt
E. 321 deg 6 nm
F. 046 deg 078 kt
G. 321 deg 008 nm
H. 959 mb
I. 12 C/ 3053 m
J. 16 C/ 3044 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C10
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1709A IKE OB 23
MAX FL WIND 78 KT NW QUAD 11:42:00 Z
SFC CENTER VERTICAL WITH FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 237
Loc: Sinajana, Guam 13.46N 144.74E
Re: 7am EDT EYE Drop [Re: danielw]
      #84760 - Wed Sep 10 2008 08:34 AM Attachment (257 downloads)

Recon sure is busy with 2 planes out there plus the Gulfstream.
See attached

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage

Edited by craigm (Wed Sep 10 2008 08:35 AM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1208
Loc: South Florida
Re: 7am EDT EYE Drop [Re: craigm]
      #84761 - Wed Sep 10 2008 08:41 AM

Good. The Gulfstream Jet is I think the most powerful tool we have currently. More valuable than the models as the models are only as good as the information plugged into them and with the data from the gulfstream jet we are less likely to have garbage out but a clearer picture of the evolving atmospheric choices Ike has down the road.

It's nice to look at long range 5 day forecasts but if you don't get the 1 and 2 day right the models and track of the 45 day are wrong. Gulfstream Jet is the best.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

The water vapor loop this morning looks vastly different from yesterday at this time.

And, he is not jogging n of forecasted points he is now officially going NW though the bend back to the wnw is still expected. After sampling the atmosphere around the storm we may get a clearer more definitive opinion if the NW movement is real or a temporary jog.

Lastly... forward speed is a real issue here. It creeps up on you. It went steady 14 mph and 13 for days and as steadily slowed down to 8. Near 8. That s l o w forward speed and deviation from his usual nature over the last week is something that needs to be addressed and watched carefully.

Let's deal with Ike and not imagine it as Katrina or the 1900 Galveston Hurricane. Let's deal with today and what Ike is telling us about where he is going please.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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threw-er-back
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 7
Loc: 28.78N 82.62W
Re: 7am EDT EYE Drop [Re: LoisCane]
      #84763 - Wed Sep 10 2008 08:59 AM

Awesome imagery!...I'm ignorant to most of whats discussed here and want to learn but with that image it looks like what I'd call a front coming out of Mexico to the east..Wont that steer Ike into FLA. or NE GOM?

--------------------
Lurking to learn


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Forecast Points [Re: threw-er-back]
      #84764 - Wed Sep 10 2008 09:12 AM

Ike is current 0.4 degrees or about 25nm north of the Forecast point from 24 hours ago.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al09/al092008.public_a.037.shtml?

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 22.0N 82.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 22.7N 83.5W 80 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 85.3W 85 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 24.2N 86.8W 90 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 88.5W 95 KT
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al09/al092008.discus.033.shtml?


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 103
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: 7am EDT EYE Drop [Re: LoisCane]
      #84765 - Wed Sep 10 2008 09:13 AM

Also with Ike intensifying are we not going to see a more poleward motion? Also the steering winds come from a higher level if i am thinking correctly. Which would change the forecast toward the central gulf coast instead of Texas due to a weakness between two highs. One over east central Texas and the bermuda high. But then again I could be completely off base. web page

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Forecast Points [Re: danielw]
      #84767 - Wed Sep 10 2008 09:17 AM

Yesterday's 8 AM Discussion directional heading.
FIXES FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS AS WILL AS PENETRATIONS FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE SMALL EYE OF IKE IS MOVING
WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS...VERY CLOSE TO THE ZAPATA
PENINSULA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al09/al092008.discus.033.shtml?

Today's Discussional direction:
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IKE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al09/al092008.discus.037.shtml?


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Forecast Points [Re: danielw]
      #84771 - Wed Sep 10 2008 10:27 AM

By the way, as shown by recent center fixes of recon Ike has moved nearly straight to the west since 4 hours!! The current mission unfortunately sends no vortex data messages, only high density data. Pressure is down to around 955-956 hPa and highest surface wind up to 81 kt. So it looks like a steady intensification.
edit: This time they did a vortex data message: pressure 957 hPa and eywall poorly defined!!

Edited by Raymond (Wed Sep 10 2008 10:53 AM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Forecast Points [Re: Raymond]
      #84773 - Wed Sep 10 2008 10:34 AM

Ike looks like it might be trying to consolidate some, but there is still a definite outer wind maximum well removed from the center. The system is definitely more convectively vigorous than it was yesterday, so further consolidation is possible.

The motion of Ike appears to have been rather erratic over the last couple of hours. That may be due to some internal reorganization, or a temporary weakening of steering currents, or some combination of the two.


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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: Forecast Points [Re: danielw]
      #84774 - Wed Sep 10 2008 10:39 AM

Hey Guys,

I have a quick question.
Last night when I was going to bed, the eye of Ike was well defined. This morning up until about 5am the eye was well defined.
The sun came up and the center clouded over.
Why do we think that is? IRC ? Dyno Gel ? (lol)
For being in a favorable environment it doesn't look like it.


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Forecast Points [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84775 - Wed Sep 10 2008 10:42 AM

It seems to me, that Ike sucks in some drier air, which is to the west of the storm. The outflow to the west seems also a bit restricted. The storm is a bit asymetrical with a weaker west side and a stronger east side,
This could prevent phases of rapid weakening.
edit: As I look on the last microwave passes, the poorly defined eye and the entrainment of drier air I even think: Ike will struggle the next hours and he won´t intensify further for a certain time.

Edited by Raymond (Wed Sep 10 2008 11:11 AM)


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