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The wave east of the Caribbean, 96L, is very much worth watching over the next week or two.
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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Raymond]
      #85137 - Sun Sep 21 2008 07:10 PM

The 18Z GFS has moved quite a bit to the right, but I don't think we'll get a reliable model until the storm is better developed.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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M.A.
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Raymond]
      #85138 - Sun Sep 21 2008 08:19 PM

The outflow is starting to become impressive. I do agree that the mid level circulation seems to be over PR. I am starting to see what looks to be a lower level spin developing east of PR and slightly north. The envelope is quite large so to try and pinpoint a spot at this time is senseless. Overall it is looking quite healthy this evening. Just when we were starting to enjoy the peaceful tropics...

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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC 36.34N 77.73W
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: M.A.]
      #85139 - Sun Sep 21 2008 09:14 PM

Low shear, great outflow and big blow up of convection. Looking at PR radar loop very difficult to see any LLC at this time. As soon as a LLC closes off this certainly has the potential to develop quickly. Model outputs are interesting to look at but not really any help until they have more info and a definate center to work with. And where that center developes, south of PR, east or north will have huge implications on eventual track, not to mention how slowly that occurs. Is it just me or does it seem there have been numerous systems this year that had good mid level circulation but took some time for the LLC to develop and get under that mid level?

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
Hurricane Season 2010: 15/8/4


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1211
Loc: South Florida
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: metwannabe]
      #85140 - Sun Sep 21 2008 11:35 PM

Looks much better tonight. Looks more like a TS than a depression.. Why? banding features, consolidation of color would indicate there is a LLC there.

This morning it looked like maybe it would be a depression... tonight it looks like a different story.

We should know in the morning.

Suppose it's another system with too many centers trying to get one to take over..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3458
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: LoisCane]
      #85141 - Sun Sep 21 2008 11:46 PM

Looks to have three different circulations.

Cyclonic low level... to the west of the radar site.

Cyclonic Mid level... to the S of the radar.

Cyclonic upper level... well to the East of the radar, OR anticyclonic circulation to the west of the radar at upper levels which would be more conducive to strengthening.

Top two levels appear to be connected to the remaining flow from the TUTT off to the NW of the system.



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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: danielw]
      #85142 - Mon Sep 22 2008 09:39 AM

The circulation of future Kyle is still ill defined. The Mid-LC left the northwestern tip of Puerto Rico recently on a NW-track. Developement in the near future will be slow until the system pulls itself together. The hurricane modells show then a continuous, slow development on a NNW-N-track till landfall in Delaware in about 5 days as a 960 hPa-hurricane. GFDL isn´t much south of New York for landfall!
I wouldn´t be very surprised of another US-landfall this year with all this land seeking storms!
Will become an interesting week!


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Raymond]
      #85143 - Mon Sep 22 2008 10:08 AM

As is said in here often,the models are not accurate until it becomes a storm.It is not even a TD yet.The model runs mean close to nothing at this point.IF it does become a TS it could go anywhere.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #85144 - Mon Sep 22 2008 10:59 AM

Yes, there is quite some uncertainty at this point. But it´s a very good bet to set on a general northward movement and at least some developement. If there will be a US landfall or it stays a fish spinner is completely open.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Raymond]
      #85147 - Mon Sep 22 2008 02:06 PM

If 93L does develop, its track evolution will be complicated by an upper-level low that is forecast to develop offshore of the Carolinas and then drift westward. It's eventual movement would then depend on how strong it gets, whether or not the upper-system tries to develop a surface low of its own, and how far west the upper sytem actually moves.

Right now, 93L is still pretty disorganized, with an apparent surface center over the far eastern Dominican Republic, a possible mid-level circulation south of Puerto Rico, and who knows what going on underneath the strongest convection to the south of those regions. The current recon mission seems to be focusing on the surface center. NHC has downgraded the potential for tropical cyclone development from high to medium. Any significant development may have to wait until the current surface center moves away from Hispaniola, or otherwise reforms in an area closer to the deep convection.


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #85148 - Mon Sep 22 2008 04:09 PM

Yes, recon and surface ovbservations prove, that there is a closed surface circulation over the eastern tip of Hispaniola and recon found estimated surface winds around 40 kt. So does this mean, we have a TS by definition also in the face of the poor organization on the other side!?

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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC 36.34N 77.73W
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Raymond]
      #85149 - Mon Sep 22 2008 07:48 PM

Deep convection blowing up over the closed circulation on the east end of DR. If this continues and it can shift north just a bit should have TS within 24 hours. With the LLC developing further west I would think that this would probably cause a shift westward in the track projections. People who are not used to having to deal with TC need to start paying attention, interesting week ahead.

Still strong potential for a low to form off coast of Carolina's, whether this is just a strong Nor'easter or subtropical in nature is still up in the air. How strong it is and it's exact track will have effect on 93L.

Next 48 hours could see some, if not rare, certainly seldom seen weather systems on the eastern seaboard.

Some models take a hurricane into NYC!!

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
Hurricane Season 2010: 15/8/4


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1211
Loc: South Florida
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Raymond]
      #85150 - Mon Sep 22 2008 07:53 PM

Very complicated indeed.

A strong mid-level that is doing one thing and a small lcc that seems to be doing something else. Like many developing systems there is a turf war going on and one will win out.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-avn.html

Having a problem with the models until this clears up. General track yes but it would have to be adjusted depending on where the real center is..

Either way... it's dropping 20 plus inches of rain on PR and recon found winds of Tropical storm intensity... with or without a name that's a whole lot of weather!

Kyle like the rest of this season's storms is taking it's own sweet time!

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 368
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Storms' Future Movement [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #85152 - Tue Sep 23 2008 06:31 AM

I don't mean to burst your bubble about this storm's future movement, but if this storm becomes Kyle and gains organization vertically there is absolutely no way that this storm can approach the United States given the upper level winds at this time and a longwave trough in the position it is in over the Eastern US. Steering currents don't support the system moving west which is its best hope to maintain itself structurally. Right now there is very little real estate for this storm to find a favorable upper air environment.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 368
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: LoisCane]
      #85153 - Tue Sep 23 2008 06:44 AM Attachment (222 downloads)

Attached is last night's 23_00Z 200mb Analysis and please note the subtropical jet maxima and location of longwave trough. There are many examples of storm acquiring tropical storm status the moment a closed surface center is found. I have no way of knowing if what I'm looking at is a depression or a storm but it does look pretty darn good on satellite at the moment and some really cold tops. It wouldn't be hard to argue that the system is reorganizing itself farther south and this storm has any chance of maintaining itself struturally that is where it needs to be. As I said in a previous post; right now there is absolutely no way this system can encroach the US, not with that big longwave trough where it current is and the subrtopical jet maxima over the gulf coast. and up the eastern US coast. It would have to remain a shallow system to have any chance at all moving west where the upper air is favorable for development but once it gains vertical structure it can either remain stationary, or move north. That said, a few days from now things can change, Kyle is going to be much like Hanna; tough tough upper air environment.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver

Edited by AlaberryPatch (Tue Sep 23 2008 06:47 AM)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: berrywr]
      #85156 - Tue Sep 23 2008 08:43 AM

Several questions:

Is is just me, or does the center of 93 now look to be well south of the DR?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Is there any possibility that the low to form off SC could be tropical...all the current discussion is all about a northeaster.

What impact does the strength of the SC low have on the track of 93? Seems that a weaker storm would have less influence.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Ed in Va]
      #85157 - Tue Sep 23 2008 08:58 AM

Yes, the low level center was pulled southward under the heaviest convection. Las Americas at the dominican south coast has had east winds since some hours. So it looks like that LLC and Upper levels come together to the south of Hispaniola. Will be interesting to the the response during the next hours. Convection looks impressive in the moment. Things are very complex with week steering currents for the next day and the closeness to Hispaniola in the short term and aren´t less complex in the longer term with the developing low close to the Carolinas.
All modells show a threat for the US Coast northward of Delaware, whatever should arrive there in 4-5 days.

Do we have a weather radar for the Dominican Republic?

Edited by Raymond (Tue Sep 23 2008 09:05 AM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
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Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Raymond]
      #85158 - Tue Sep 23 2008 12:04 PM

93L is getting better organized south of D.R. still though a North movement is expected to begin later tonight into Weds with a NNE trend to it along the cold front. A path more North is expect along days 3-4 before a turn back NE into the westerlys. I doubt this will make a landfall in the U.S. though Cape Cod has the best chance.

93L hasnt moved S or west as alot have speculated. It's just reorganizing over the water south of the D.R. As 93L gets better organized, it will get pulled NNE.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1211
Loc: South Florida
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: berrywr]
      #85162 - Tue Sep 23 2008 12:58 PM

"Right now there is very little real estate for this storm to find a favorable upper air environment. "

IF that is true and it probably is... he will drift west, move slowly west or wnw until things improve. I think he is close to losing his ticket out of town. The old models had him way north of where he was supposed to be moving very slowly into the Bahamas and towards his path between Florida and the Bahamas with his date with the Noreaster.

Garbage in..garbage out.

Think the NHC is going to have to deal with what is..and that appears to me the storm wrapping around the old mid-level center which was furthest to the south.

It could pull north but its going to be much further to the west than expected.

We don't always get what we expect from the models in the tropical prediction.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: LoisCane]
      #85163 - Tue Sep 23 2008 01:27 PM

I would say, that in the next 24 hours it could drift to the west south of Hispaniola. The stronger it gets, the more it will feel the northward pull of the upper low near the Carolinas then. Ther is a very small chance, if it stays rather weak, that it lingers around in weak steering currents in the Caribbean. In the moment I would still go with the northward movement beginning in 24-36 hours or may be even earlier.

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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 368
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Raymond]
      #85170 - Wed Sep 24 2008 01:37 AM

Raymond's analysis is correct as long as this system remains "shallow". It's 24/0534Z and I just got home from work so I'm just now looking at the data for this evening. It's a broad circulation on satellite but not as organized as it was 24 hours ago. I'll post as soon as I look at all the new data from the 00Z.

Edited to include 24/00Z analysis:

24/00Z – 850mb analysis shows a closed high over NY state with a SW axis extending into TX this evening. Old frontal boundaries with lows are off the Eastern US coast extending SSW into the FL straits. 700mb analysis shows position of high over E Michigan and upper lows 300 miles east of Charleston, SC and over central Cuba. 500mb analysis shows closed upper low just south of Cape Hatteras and 589 decameter high over Indiana with an axis extending to a 590 decamter high the TX/LA border with slight height falls south of the upper low suggesting slight deepening. At 300mb upper low is either barely closed or open waved over E NC and difluence taking shape over the Atlantic Ocean near 25N 78W. 30 and 40 decamter height falls are noted over S FL. 200mb analysis this evening continues to show a deep longwave trough extending southward right along the eastern US to just off the FL coast and southward into the Carribbean. Winds are totally hostile above 25N latitude in the GOM and Atlantic Ocean off the coast of FL becoming much lighter east of 75W longitude and north-south axis of shortwave ridge at 68W. An approach to the SE US and GOM is impossible at this time. Water Vapor loop this evening shows E US longwave trough continuing to amply southward with strong subsidence and dry air well into FL which are reflected by height falls on upper air charts this evening. At this time, cyclogenesis is taken shape off the NC coast with with northerly winds aloft over the Caribbean extending from upper high 200 miles south of Brownsville, TX right along the MX coast. Closed upper low spinning about 600 miles ENE of system appears to be slowly moving NNW in last couple of frames. As for the system itself; there is no westward component to movement whatsoever and in fact it does have the organization it had 24 hours ago. Looking at model data from NCEP – Developing low pressure center along front as discussed in satellite analysis is taking shape and with diving trough into FL, will support low pressure system moving a bit unorthodox for a few days before moving up the coast as an extratropical cyclone. Gurus over at HPC believe system won’t be over water or be in the area long enough to develop subtropical or tropical characteristics. The fly in the ointment is what is likely to become Kyle. Upper air is forecast to become pretty straightforward with a trough along the east coast and a ridge over the Atlantic. It can’t be ruled out that the systems won’t merge down the road but and I’m not about going to speculate when and where at Day 5, but there is no threat to the SE US in this forecast cycle. Either Kyle stays up under that ridge or Kyle won’t survive and there is little room for it to operate at this time.

The upper air package is available at http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/nwsfax.html.

Microsoft Office Picture Manager or Windows Image Viewer will open these charts.

Edited by AlaberryPatch (Wed Sep 24 2008 02:48 AM)


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