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Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Watching the Gulf, but Not Expecting anything for the week.
      #85656 - Fri Jun 26 2009 08:10 AM

5:30PM EDT Update 28 Jun 2009
Although there are a few things to watch in the tropics, the set up this week seems to prevent any tropical development.

93L has nothing more going for it than a wave axis at the moment, and looks like it won't do much other than cause some rain (even that won't be all that much). The satellite presentation, surrounding conditions, and an oncoming front arriving around Tuesday should finish whatever is left off.

10:40PM EDT Update 27 Jun 2009
The Wave known as 93L has not persisted much today, models are no longer predicting development, and neither are we. We'll watch what remains, but it's real chance has come and gone. Satellite indicates northerly shear may be starting to form in the Gulf, which will further diminish any chance of development.



Elsewhere in the tropics, thankfully, there isn't much to watch. Things can change, but until then enjoy the Independence Day week (In the USA)!

7:00AM EDT Update 27 Jun 2009

The wave (93L) in the western Caribbean Sea has decreased in convection overnight, which lowers the chances for development soon, there is still enough organization to keep it worth watching. Most of the model runs have lowered its projected intensity for it in the Gulf, which is good news.



There is still a 50-70% chance this system will not develop, and until a low level circulation has formed, it will not. Signs of it are showing just off the eastern coast of the Yucatan. But in general, the system is not looking all that great. It likely will not develop today,.

If the general system persists until reaching the Gulf (it may just clip or pass to the east of the Yucatan) it has a chance to develop then. But for today, it looks like it won't reach tropical status.

If a circulation center doesn't form by sometime in the Gulf it will just mean rain for Florida.

Those in the Eastern Gulf should continue to monitor this into next week.

6:15PM EDT Update 26 Jun 2009

93L is maintaining itself well, and the chance of development remains around 30-50%. More model runs are coming out which indicates the eastern Gulf of Mexcio will be most likely affected by whatever happens around Tuesday or Wednesday. As it is not completely developed, things may change.

If it persists through the evening into tomorrow, and a true low level circulation forms, then it's open to become a named storm.



The movement may depend on how rapidly the ridge to the northwest of the system develops vs the trough to the northeast of the system. If the ridge prevails,.the system should move more to the northwest, however, if the trough prevails the system should eventually move more northeast. Currently the low level tropical model suite moves the system to the northwest whereas the deeper models (HWRF, GFS) that incorporate the upper level flow eventually move the system to the northeast.

2PM EDT Update 26 Jun 2009
The wave in the west Caribbean (93L) has organized a bit this morning, more around the center than previously. It looks like it will not develop enough in time to be named before it reaches the Yucatan, but it will likely be on the upswing when it does.

What is more interesting is what happens after it moves near or across the tip of the Yucatan, most likely into the Southern Gulf. If it survives that, Once there, chances improve quite a bit that this system will develop, meaning those along the Gulf Coast will want to watch this one. Some longer range models indicate the eastern Gulf will want to keep watch on it.

More updates to come...

What do you think it will do? Let us know in the 93L Lounge.

Original Update
There is a tropical wave in the Western Caribbean that is running roughly from the Cayman Islands toward Honduras, moving generally west. Conditions around the system are slightly on the favorable side, so it has a bit of a chance to develop. It only has until overnight tonight to develop, however, as by then it will have reached the Yucatan Peninsula.

It has about a 20-30% shot, but its looking rather well this morning. As of 8AM, it is being tracked as an official Invest, designated 93L. This is worth watching to see if it develops today, as this area is a prime area for Development in late June.

The National Hurricane center in their Outlook is focusing on the wave (surface low), rather than the Mid Level Circulation, at the moment, but both may work their way together. Currently the convection (to the northeast) is away from the center (which is further to the south and west) and may be dispersing. This helps to keep the system from developing at all, which is the most likely outcome. If it survives the Yucatan, it will be worth watching then as it may be near the western or central Gulf of Mexico.



More to come....

93L Event Related Links
AL932009mltsth.gif
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 93L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 93L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 93L Clark Evans Track Plot of 93L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 93L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 93L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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hogrunr
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up [Re: MikeC]
      #85657 - Fri Jun 26 2009 09:52 AM

CMC as well as GFS are have picked this system up as well now...GFS is on track with most of the other models taking it over the tip of the Yucatan and into the central GOM. CMC has it take a hard East turn towards the panhandle of Florida. If this develops into anything significant, destination should end up depending on where the high pressure that is forecast to sink into the GOM steers this system.

As a biased Houstonian...we could most definitely use a minor system dropping a lot of rain over here!


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up [Re: MikeC]
      #85658 - Fri Jun 26 2009 09:58 AM

This system looks to be flaring rather quickly.
Bear Watch here.
It appears that the trough may be weakening and high pressure aloft is beginning to form.

I saw the early model runs this morning. Tropical systems are Nature's air conditioning. And the whole Gulf South could use a welcome break from the heat.

Problem is tropical systems have a nasty habit of dumping too much rain in one location.
Tropical Storm Allison, most recently.


Edited by danielw (Fri Jun 26 2009 10:06 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up [Re: danielw]
      #85659 - Fri Jun 26 2009 10:10 AM

The center is just of the coast to the northeast of Honduras, the convection is mostly to the north and east away from the center, so this is an indication it's still unorganized right now. The main issue is the wind shear, but the 30% chance is pretty solid at the moment, if it persists the rest of the day that could go up.



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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up [Re: MikeC]
      #85660 - Fri Jun 26 2009 10:22 AM

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT FRI 26 JUNE 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JUNE 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-029

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY; POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 23N 90W AT 28/1800Z.


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hogrunr
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up [Re: danielw]
      #85661 - Fri Jun 26 2009 10:37 AM

I forgot to add in my other post, the SHIPS intensity model shows to be near Hurricane strength sometime in the Monday to Tuesday range...of course this can vary depending on what the system encounters in the Gulf in the way of dry air and warm water.

As you can see below...there is a new section of convection starting just to the East of the COC.



Edited to reduce image size, click image to see original. - Mike C.


Edited by MikeC (Fri Jun 26 2009 12:09 PM)


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HCW
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up [Re: MikeC]
      #85662 - Fri Jun 26 2009 02:01 PM

This system has now been upgraded to a code orange meaning it has a 30% to 50% chance of forming into a Tropical storm once it reaches the GOM. Now we wait and see if we can get a surface low forming but with all the heat energy out there there the GOM easily supports a Cat 3 cane . The GFS ,GFDL,HWRF and the Canadian take the system in the direction of FL while the other models take it in the direction of Texas/LA .

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Edited by HCW (Fri Jun 26 2009 02:13 PM)


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LoisCane
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up [Re: HCW]
      #85664 - Fri Jun 26 2009 02:22 PM

It's a very compelling set up and not such long range models. Complicated by the ULL and also feel that if it were to develop it would be a big system, there is a large envelope that can fill in if it develops a definitive center and has a chance to develop. Heard it said it will shoot the channel by a few people but think the models will turn a bit more to the right over consecutive runs.. however much depends on where it really is when and if it really develops.

Either way, even I was surprised they went orange rather than waiting til the next update.

Looking at the Dvorak and models I can see the reason to pay more attention to this than most people.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation

Again, if this gets into the Gulf it makes landfall.. and could do so as a hurricane I think... so as much as everyone is busy this weekend doing other things.... this really does as they say bear watching...

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CDMOrlando
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: MikeC]
      #85666 - Fri Jun 26 2009 03:43 PM

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
229 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

TROPICAL WAVE/POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWEST FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...
UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WAS LITTLE AGREEMENT DURING THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS MORE EMPHATIC /BOTH WITHIN
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC RUNS/ IN DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND TRACK IT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 00Z
CANADIAN MEMBERS...AS USUAL...ARE MUCH QUICKER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF
IN LIFTING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 12Z GFS IN
PARTICULAR FORMS THE LOW AND WEAKENS IT JUST AS FAST...AT THE
SURFACE AND 700 HPA...WHEN IT BRINGS THE SYSTEM AS AN OPEN TROUGH
INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE GFS IS LIKELY SHOWING ITS QUICK BIAS
WITH GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK-SPAWNED SURFACE LOWS HERE...THUS THE
PROGRESSION WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER.


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danielwAdministrator
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Western Caribbean System in GOM Sunday [Re: CDMOrlando]
      #85667 - Fri Jun 26 2009 04:29 PM

Model guidance on a developing system is usually hard to follow. Guidance is getting better with this system but it still has a 180 degree spread on the target zones.

Afternoon AFD from Key West NWS-edited

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS DRAMATICALLY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE ONCE IT REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE GFS NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS TROPICAL WAVE TOO FAR
TO THE EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO GRID SCALE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK CENTERS. THE PREFERRED SCENARIO IS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IF THE GFS NUMERICAL MODEL IS CORRECT...RAIN
CHANCES AND WINDS WILL BE HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED FOR THE SUNDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY FORECAST PERIODS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE LEAST LIKELY
FORECAST SCENARIO TO COME INTO FRUITION.

Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion Brownsville ,Tx-edited

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE AND THE HURRICANE
CENTER IN MIAMI ARE KEEPING CLOSE TABS ON THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS COULD
IMPROVE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. AFTER THIS...THE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE MORE NORTH
THEN WEST AS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

Looks like a hung jury ... for now.


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cieldumort
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: MikeC]
      #85668 - Fri Jun 26 2009 04:36 PM

So far there hasn't been much to speak of at all at the surface, other than a tropical wave of decent intensity. Pressures have not been falling much to speak of, nor has there been any appreciable increase in the degree of cyclonic flow around any real "center of circulation." At present, there is one weak lower level vortex much closer to Cuba and pushing north, now around 21N 83W, ready to pass over or near the Isle of Youth -

On the other hand, 93L, the whole enchilada, finds itself in what looks like the best environment yet so far this season in the Atlantic basin for development. Upper level winds atop all of 93L are decidedly gentle and anti-cyclonic, moisture throughout the column is abundant, and instability is pretty high, overall, obvious by the persistently strong thunderstorm clusters that keep regenerating.

If and when we actually start to see some real turning at the surface closer to the main area of convection and trof axis (closer to 18N 84W, for example) my sense is that 93L could potentially go from zero to fifty rather quickly. It also looks that 93L, whether or not it becomes a tropical cyclone, will probably carry with it an abundance of rainfall, provided it does not run into or inhale and choke on too large a fetch of dry air.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: cieldumort]
      #85669 - Fri Jun 26 2009 05:18 PM

GOM SSTs.. last 48 hour period
42001 Mid GOM Buoy Hi- 85.64F Lo-84.38F
(Jun Max 1975-2001 89.78F 06/29/1994-21z Min 77.72 06/01/1976-15z)

42002 W GOM Buoy Hi-87.80 Lo-84.38
42003 E GOM Buoy Hi-85.28 Lo-84.2
42040 Mobile,Al Buoy Hi-89.42 Lo-87.26

Mobile Buoy reported a high SST of 91.58F 48 hours ago. Just prior to a Thunderstorm complex passing throught the area.

It it June 26th.... right? These almost look like August SSTs.

Breaking News:
Pressure drop being reported at the W Caribbean Buoy
Today
26/2100Z 42056 19.9N -85.1W 24.1air 23.4dew pt 190deg at 8kt G 12kt peak wind from 150deg at 17kt 1009.0mb -3.4(3 hr pressure drop in mb) 28.2SST 1.5meters (sea height) 7sec period 42056

Yesterday
25/2100Z 42056 19.9N -85.1W 28.6air 23.3dew pt 130deg at 10kt G 12kt peak wind at 130deg at 12kt 1012.0mb -0.5(3 hr pressure change in mb) 29.4SST 0.5meter wave ht 5sec period 42056

Edited by danielw (Fri Jun 26 2009 08:24 PM)


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LadyStorm
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: danielw]
      #85674 - Fri Jun 26 2009 07:10 PM

Could it be all of the above normal temps we have been having down here in Florida? I imagine this would have raised the water temps to support tropical disturbances. Correct me if I am wrong. I am still an amature at this.???

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thinking we were at when we created them"

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cieldumort
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: LadyStorm]
      #85675 - Fri Jun 26 2009 07:17 PM

Quote:


Could it be all of the above normal temps we have been having down here in Florida?




SSTs are really only small fraction of the formula in "cooking" up tropical and subtropical cyclones. Most of the action is really centered above water (as are the storms).

In specific relation to Invest 93L, this feature is not yet even a tropical cyclone, to begin with. It is currently a healthy tropical wave that has crossed the ocean from Africa, and has found itself in a much sweeter spot in the atmosphere than it has been in up until this time. SSTs are also typically far more supportive in this region (the Caribbean and GOM) during this time of year than the rest of the north Atlantic. There is nothing climatologically unusual about this. It is what we would expect for June.

Hope that helps.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: cieldumort]
      #85678 - Fri Jun 26 2009 09:04 PM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009
edited~danielw

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS FROM 10N-21N
ALONG 84W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ACCOMPANYING THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17.5N. A
LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
FOUND E OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 81W-85W AND IS
IN BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. STRONG MOIST SLY MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER
JAMAICA IS CONTINUING TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS
AREA OF DISORGANIZED WEATHER WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SRN GULF OF
MEXICO LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN THE
MEANTIME...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS SYSTEM OVER HONDURAS AND IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...
SPREADING NWD OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MUCH OF
WRN AND CENTRAL CUBA.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/270000.shtml?


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: danielw]
      #85680 - Fri Jun 26 2009 10:49 PM

Interestingly, the cloud tops on the system are warming overnight (which means its weakening). This usually goes in cycles though, if the convection stays together it still is about a 30-50% of development, if it does not, it will be delayed, or not at all.

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hogrunr
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: MikeC]
      #85681 - Fri Jun 26 2009 11:07 PM

It seems along with some of that warming...there may actually be a slight rotation around a center beginning.

It will be easier to see in daylight in the morning with the visible sat, as well as the convection firing up again in the NE quadrant.





Edited by hogrunr (Fri Jun 26 2009 11:28 PM)


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docrod
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: hogrunr]
      #85682 - Fri Jun 26 2009 11:23 PM

I'm seeing roughly due north and the rotation on several ir channels tonight. Puffs aside, yes, need to it check the morning.

-eve - Rod


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hogrunr
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: docrod]
      #85683 - Sat Jun 27 2009 09:40 AM

Looking at the CIMSS wind maps, it's pretty easy to see the rotation that has begun in the last 9 hours.

T-9hr

T-6hr

T-3hr

Current


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: hogrunr]
      #85684 - Sat Jun 27 2009 10:08 AM

The system won't develop today, the best chance is off the east coast of the Yucatan. But even then convection isn't nearly that great today or near enough to the "center" to mean much. It just isn't organized at all.

It's looking more like it may do nothing at all and just be rain for Florida at the moment, although that depends on how much (if at all) it organizes today and before entering the Gulf. Once in the Gulf if a real Low Level Circulation doesn't get started, then it will just be rain for central Florida southward.


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hogrunr
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: MikeC]
      #85685 - Sat Jun 27 2009 10:21 AM

Agreed, I don't believe it will develop into an actual tropical cyclone today, although the latest satellite shows convection building around the center that seems to be just off the coast of Belize City.

The main area of convection from yesterday that is far off to the East, is similar to what the system did yesterday. The main convection gets spun off to the ENE and then it begins to rebuild around the Low again. This spun off convection will be as you said, a lot of rain for south central Florida today, and we will have to continue to watch what the Low itself does over the next 24 hours.


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: hogrunr]
      #85687 - Sat Jun 27 2009 01:17 PM

i expect will see something... late tmrw.... the only bug i really see is the ULL in the BOC... its pertty strong and i expect it to affect the outflow/setup of 93L on the western side of the low.. which its kinda doing now... but its moving to the wnw..... guess will see how well the loop current is at the end of June..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

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Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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OrlandoDan
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #85688 - Sat Jun 27 2009 01:20 PM

The 1645 UTC satellite image really shows an explosion of convenction, but it is difficult to see a circulation center.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #85689 - Sat Jun 27 2009 03:56 PM

Appears to have multiple vortices. Near surface vortice is in the clear area SW of the main convection.
Second vortice is under the southernmost cluster of thunderstorms.
Third and Main vortice, at this time, is just east of Cozumel, per the JSL enhancement. This area should cross into the GOM by sundown.

ULL over the BOC could assist in the vorticity of the system. Combined with the Upper level High that's nearly centered over the system.
See the current shear graphics on the preceding page. Upper Level High over Lower Low almost, always will intensify to some degree.

Also of notice are the two systems over CONUS. Low over the Eastern Seaboard States and a High located over the Midwest. Somewhat of a hammerhead against the northward movement of the system. Also might explain, to some degree, the right or left turn that the models are forecasting.

Edited by danielw (Sat Jun 27 2009 04:22 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: danielw]
      #85690 - Sat Jun 27 2009 05:35 PM

what would really help would be the cancun radar... appears the internet image is down tho

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg

i think were the new convection is firing now, is the area i think the center of the low is...

the closet i could get is belize... but cant see anything really

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/Latest_Radar_Image.htm

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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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hogrunr
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Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up, In the Gulf by Sunday [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #85691 - Sat Jun 27 2009 05:45 PM

Here in the latest Visible Satellite, you can see the cloud tops building where the COC is.




The IR image confirms the cloud tops building.



Edited by hogrunr (Sat Jun 27 2009 05:51 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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93L Nearing the GOM [Re: hogrunr]
      #85692 - Sat Jun 27 2009 08:26 PM

Evening roundup...

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SW FL TO THE TX
COAST WILL SPLIT LATE TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE SEPARATES FROM ITS PARENT WAVE. THE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND S CENTRAL GULF WATERS
TONIGHT AND LIE UNDER THE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER
TROUGH AND CUT OFF CYCLONE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BASICALLY
EXPECTING THE TROUGH TO BEGIN DRIFTING E SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH
A LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH. THE LOW HAS THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW
AND LATEST GUIDANCE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE SO TONED DOWN THIS
MORNINGS TEXT PACKAGE AND TONING DOWN GRAPHICAL PACKAGE IN
PROGRESS.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
WHILE NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
AFTER IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N87W SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA TO 7N89W IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM
EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS NORTH OF 18N. ISOLATE MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING OVER ALL OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN
COUNTRIES IN PART FROM FORCING BY THE WAVE IN PART FROM NORMAL
AFTERNOON HEATING IN THE TROPICS. NUMEROUS STATION...BUOY...
AND A 1506Z ASCAT PASS SHOW A DISTINCT TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE...BUT AS OF YET NO SURFACE LOW. THE GFS 700 MB ANALYSES
SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS LEVEL.
THE WAVE IS ALSO WELL-DEFINED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY WITH A MAXIMUM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE HAS BEEN
MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
236 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

VALID JUN 27/1200 UTC THRU JUL 01/0000 UTC

...DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE NAM HAS MAINTAINED ITS IDEA THAT SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH
NO CLEAR SIGNAL AS TO WHICH IF ANY EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY AS SEEN IN H700mb VORTICITY FIELD. THE GFS
KEPT A MORE DISCRETE ENTITY ROUNDING THE TIP OF THE YUCATAN
OVERNIGHT. THE 12Z SOLutioNS FROM THE NCEP MODELS ARE IN BASIC
AGREEMENT WITH THEIR EARLIER SOLNS. THE 12Z CANADIAN GLOBAL IS
SIMILAR TO THE GFS IDEA IN BRINGING A DISCRETE VORTicity CENTER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN AND THEN LETTING THE SYStem MEANDER
NORTHWARD. THE UKMET IS CLOSER TO THE NAM IDEA IN NOT BEING AS
WELL DEFINED. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THINK THAT THE NAM IS
TOO WEAK/UNDERDEVELOPED WITH THIS FEATURE. WOULD FAVOR AN
ECMWF/UKMET/GFS COMPROMISE IN TERMS OF BOTH POSitioN AND STRENGTH.

lower case letters inserted to replace abbreviations~danielw

Edited by danielw (Sat Jun 27 2009 08:31 PM)


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dem05
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Re: 93L Nearing the GOM [Re: danielw]
      #85693 - Sun Jun 28 2009 02:45 AM

I love this site, but unfortunately, life called and pulled me away...so I've been away from posting for a long while. I hope I am back.

I'm going to have to do a little point counterpoint on 93L this evening. This is not one to give up on just yet. Per the pre-satellite eclipse images I am seeing late tonight, I am finally starting to see what I have been waiting for, and it is a sign that this little disturbance may finally be pulling in through very subtle means. But before I get to that discussion, it's important to recap where 93L has been today (appearance wise), and more improtantly...why.

Earlier today, most gave up on 93L, by afternoon, many believed that something was happenning as far as a mid level roation and better organization. What we actually saw at mid day today was a true trough (tropical wave axis) off of the Yucatan and Belize. As the afternoon wore on, a wind and moisture surge swung out of the SE from offshore of the Nicaragua and Hondoras portion of the Carribean. With that, thunderstoms took off. Why? convergence from multiple angles and directions. As such, this moisture surge raced up the wave from SSE to NNW and produced nice convective bursting and some turning. Also, with the changing and veering winds, we may have seen an assembalance of mid-level rotation. I first watched this area to see if these veering winds would create a sustainable mid-level low that could translate to the surface, but this surge continued to run up the wave without stalling. In the the end, there was nothing much to be left in the wake of this surge except for collapsing convection and colliding outflow boundries, some of which led to some pulsing (popcorn) thunderstoms and a slight hint of a weak mid level vorticity.

At this point (2:30AM), depending on the satellite view you visit, this system is a mess and all appears to be over. But using the tools that paint the best picture at night (Shortwave in this instance), we can see that a mid-level votex is assembling a better presentation(without compitition from other mid level vorts and or colliding boundries). This low is east of cancun in the basic area where the activity was most interesting this afternoon. The activity may not look that impressive now, but the low cloud deck is increasing (noted through the darkening grey scale on the loop. Link below.). That activity may be a sign of upcoming organization and increased thunderstorm activity...as such activity has been seen in past developments...so we may come out of the satellite eclipse to find some okay looking thunderstorm activity and/or a system that is more consolidated than it has been in the past. This still may be something to watch.

P.S. Mods are also right, the Gulf may not be as friendly as previously thought during the next 24 hours or so. This may make it even more interesting if this area off of Cancun is an area that takes charge...as this area is slightly protected from those hostile winds at the moment.

Shortwave Loop

Edited by dem05 (Sun Jun 28 2009 03:04 AM)


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Robert
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area east of florida [Re: MikeC]
      #85694 - Sun Jun 28 2009 04:49 AM

What on earth is going on there thats a big blow up seems to be splitting Very Impressive

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doug
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Re: 93L Nearing the GOM [Re: dem05]
      #85696 - Sun Jun 28 2009 07:32 AM

this morning the visible shows some persistent vorticity near Cancun, but all convection is over the land area. Some convection is NE of this vorticity over water probably of diffulent origin. It seems to be in another diurnal cycle. At best this vorticity is weak and likely won't support too much convection, especially if the shear develops as predicted. Wishcast: weak vortex that increases precipitation over the Florida peninsula.

--------------------
doug


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 93L Nearing the GOM [Re: doug]
      #85697 - Sun Jun 28 2009 08:28 AM

All of the Floater satellite shots are indicating a distinct vortice near/ over Cancun at this time.
Latest METARs from the Cozumel and Cancun airports support the satellite observations.

Cozumel:
MMCZ 281145Z 14003KT 7SM SCT015TCU BKN080 OVC200 24/24 A2987 RMK SLP108 57015 900 8/277 DSNT CBS 3,4 QDTE (edit distant thunderstorms SW & NW Quadrants...Cancun area, Cozumel pressure 1010.8mb)
MMCZ 281045Z 00000KT 7SM FEW015 BKN080 24/24 A2986 RMK 8/470 DSTN CBS LTG W
(edit-distant thunderstorms and lightning to the west...Cancun Area)

Cancun:
MMUN 281148Z 00000KT 4SM -RA BKN010CB BKN090 24/23 A2988 RMK SLP111 57006 956 60055 8/360 (edit-calm wind,light rain,1000ft ceiling and thunderstorm pressure 1011.1mb)
MMUN 281043Z 00000KT 5SM RA BKN015CB OVC090 24/23 A2987 RMK 60095 8/36/

Convective Hot Tower is noted on the current satellite photos in the immediate vicinity of Cancun,MX. Nearly in the center of the vorticity center,
Cancun Radar is out of service so I am using the surface observations in place of the radar.

I'm not going to write this one off yet. I'll wait to see what happens when the vorticity center moves offshore.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
222 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2009

VALID JUN 28/0000 UTC THRU JUL 01/1200 UTC
(edited~danielw)
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...

RECOMMENDATION: EXCLUDE THE WEAKER GFS FOR SURFACE LOW DEPICTION
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF

THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER AND AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE
IN ALLOWING THE DISTURBANCE TO CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
EMERGE AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY
MIDDAY MONDAY...
WHILE THE GFS DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HRS. GIVEN ITS REASONABLE ORGANIZATION AND STRUCTURE SEEN
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL CONSENSUS FOR AT LEAST A REMNANT
DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WHERE NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
EXIST...
A SOLUTION TOWARD THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMS
REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE PLUME
OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE EAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE PARTIALLY PULLED
INTO THE BROAD LOWER/MID LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
REFER TO THE QPFPFD FOR MORE INFORMATION.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=PMDHMD&max=61

Edited by danielw (Sun Jun 28 2009 09:23 AM)


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cieldumort
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Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. [Re: MikeC]
      #85700 - Sun Jun 28 2009 01:36 PM

Roughly noon Sunday here in the CDT. "93L" is now really centered closer to 23N 90W and tracking nearly due west (this would be just northwest of the tip of the Yucatan, and heading west). The convection others have noted is merely trailing convection behind the wave, as has largely been the case for the past several days, and mostly fanned by some increasingly strong upper-level winds, or fueled by outflow boundaries and/or daytime heating over land, et cetera.

The point being, "93L" now barely stands out, and in the history of features tracked as "Invests," barely cuts it. The sweet spot it found itself in while traveling through the western Caribbean has given way to impinging bursts of northerly to northeasterly shear, and toxic dry air entrainment.

There is a small chance that as the TUTT low which originally aided in 93's chances, by way of its position, pulls further away to the west, the wave (93L) could find itself in the western GOM with maybe some time to fester a bit in a less hostile shear environment (a big if)... before either following the TUTT into Mexico itself -- or eventually being recurved back northeastward - also a big if (There is really not much of any mechanism by which the wave can break from its continued westwardish track, at least over the next day or two).

All in all, unless its environment markedly improves over the next 72 hours, 93L looks set to head into eastern Mx and/or Texas by around mid-week, bringing some enhanced showers, thunderstorms, and some gusty winds.

The models do not have a good handle on where 93L is located, nor the environment it is really in, so this may make for forecasts out beyond 24 hours not particularly reliable today. The GFDL presumes that 93 is still around the northwestern Caribbean or tip of the Yucatan. This model would have a very strong wave or marginal TS make landfall along west-central Florida Wednesday night. HWRF is also too far back, and assumes 93L is still closer to the tip of the Yucatan drifting much more north, than west. The b run FSU MM5 actually looks to have the best feel for what 93L is doing, at present, but appears a little aggressive on 93's ability to ramp up into a tropical storm (this scenario - 93L becoming a strong TS in the Bay of Campeche, is certainly plausible, but at this time that run looks a little hot). There is a tentative recon set up for tomorrow.. which could provide some very helpful information which would then feed into the models in time for Tuesday runs.

2PM: Editing this post to mention that there is a possibility of a low forming over the Yucatan - this would be a result of 93L having crossed it, but not the actual wave I discussed above, itself. Should a new surface low take hold there, it could exit the Yucatan and enter the Bay of Campeche, as early as tomorrow, entering a far less hostile environment for potential development.

Edited by cieldumort (Sun Jun 28 2009 03:10 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. [Re: cieldumort]
      #85704 - Sun Jun 28 2009 03:54 PM

i feel that what i'm seeing in the sats is that the "center" of the invest is about to emerge into the GOM... its on the tip of the NW coast.. NW of Cancun about to enter the SGOM in 4-6 hrs.. and its looks better then i have seen in the last 24 hrs as a surface vorticity.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...00906261215.GIF

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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hogrunr
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Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #85705 - Sun Jun 28 2009 05:18 PM

I think this system has been written off for dead way too soon by too many people. This shows distinctly where the winds are centered at:





Also, this shows that the ULL that is moving West out of the BOC has completely cleared out that portion of the Gulf coast (ie Texas and Mexico) and that the boundary over the northern gulf has already started to position itself to the east of 93L to keep this system, most likely from turning to the East. It seems more models are starting to follow this path as well.



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cieldumort
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Re: 93L Development Chances Dropping Like a Rock. [Re: hogrunr]
      #85706 - Sun Jun 28 2009 06:16 PM

Quote:

This shows distinctly where the winds are centered at




In the interest of accuracy, the image posted above is not an actual Scatterometer, but rather much more of an artistic "composite" based very much on assumptions of where an Invest is located at any given time, put together with the "sketchy" (pardon the pun) wind scats of the past 24 hours, or so.


You can see CIRA's entire public suite here:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products...ND_200906281800, and you can read about how this image is created here. Note: Not only is the Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis product a guestimate based on dated Scat passes, but it is also compiled using wind data from the mid-levels adjusted to the surface. In poorly developed and disorganized features, such as this (extremely poorly organized feature, really) the mid level circulation is often actually well-separated from any surface circulation (if and when there is one). Consequently, extrapolating a mid-level circulation to the surface as a way of determining the location of a given feature is often a bad idea.

An alternate source, much more accurate than artistic renditions, can be found at NRL: This link contains the most recent Scat image available (ERS-2), from a pass at 1624Z. At that time there was absolutely no indication of a closed surface circulation, whatsoever.

Hope that helps!


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danielwAdministrator
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4th of July Weekend... areas to watch [Re: cieldumort]
      #85709 - Thu Jul 02 2009 07:32 AM

Currently 7 AM EDT or 12Z on Thursday.

Three minor areas to watch over the long weekend:
Bay of Campeche- Area of cycling organized thunderstorms moving into the BOC area.

Western Caribbean- Upper level Low appears to be attaining some warm core characteristics as a few clouds have appeared in the center of the Low. Grand Cayman is currently reporting clouds at 1800ft.
MWCR 021100Z 13011KT 9999 FEW018 BKN200 27/23 Q1014 NOSIG=

Third area, and possibly an area to watch for the next week is the tropical wave just west of 45W.
Yesterday's Carribean Discussion mentioned that this wave is forecast to change from a positvely tilted wave to a negatively tilted wave. With the height extending up to 400mb... or around 20,000 feet. At some time the wind behind the wave are forecast to increase to35 to 50 knots ( at the 850mb, or 5000ft level). Possibly due to pressure gradient differences. Read the latest Caribbean Discussion here:
Caribbean Forecast Discussion

Positive and Negative tilt definitions here:
Negatively tilted trough definition

edit- Currently none of the 00Z tropical forecast models are indicating any development in the above listed areas.~danielw
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase


Edited by danielw (Thu Jul 02 2009 07:45 AM)


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scottsvb
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Re: 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch [Re: danielw]
      #85710 - Thu Jul 02 2009 10:20 AM

BOC probably has the best chance and that chance is like 10% or less...lol There is nothing worth noteing for the Atlantic over the next 3-5 days for me!

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gatorman
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Re: 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch [Re: scottsvb]
      #85711 - Thu Jul 02 2009 10:42 AM

looks to be a nice wave coming off the coast of africa? i think its 5w-33n? i know its a little early for waves to make it all the way to the US, with SST being lower and sheer, but something to watch since there is nothing going on close? :?:

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 4th of July Weekend... areas to watch [Re: scottsvb]
      #85712 - Thu Jul 02 2009 03:17 PM

Quote:

BOC probably has the best chance and that chance is like 10% or less...lol There is nothing worth noteing for the Atlantic over the next 3-5 days for me!




Shortly before Noon today I noticed the "death knell" outflow boundary rolling north through the BOC. Probably the end of that thunderstorm complex for a while.


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Storm Hunter
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El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 [Re: danielw]
      #85721 - Fri Jul 10 2009 05:41 PM

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090709_elnino.html

El Nino is back... looks to be a quiter hurricane season in the Atlantic.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Jane
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Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #85722 - Fri Jul 10 2009 07:06 PM

El Nino -- and all that Saharan dust is keeping things quiet.

--------------------
Jane
Fort Lauderdale, Florida
http://janesbits.blogspot.com


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gatorman
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Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 [Re: Jane]
      #85723 - Fri Jul 10 2009 08:41 PM

too bad, another boring year. Like they say it only takes one to mess up your day. Its been really unusual in the past 3 years we, in Florida, have only had 1 system, which did very minimal damage? If this is global warming, doesnt seem really bad?

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 [Re: gatorman]
      #85724 - Fri Jul 10 2009 10:32 PM

Quote:

too bad, another boring year. Like they say it only takes one to mess up your day. Its been really unusual in the past 3 years we, in Florida, have only had 1 system, which did very minimal damage? If this is global warming, doesnt seem really bad?




I certainly hope for a quiet year. I hate busy years, 2004 and 2005 were some of the worst. The likelihood of a slower Atlantic season is higher because of the effect of ENSO on the shear out here, which gives storms less of a chance to form. That's really it.

Storms still can form however. And there is nothing unusal about no damaging storms, 2004-2005 were oddities.


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Lee-Delray
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Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 [Re: MikeC]
      #85729 - Mon Jul 13 2009 07:58 AM

Remember Andrew happened in a quiet year. It's not a quiet year if a storm hits you.

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M.A.
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Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #85730 - Mon Jul 13 2009 04:51 PM

If memory serves me correctly '04 started off very slowly also. Then a flurry of activity resulting in 4 landfalling hurricanes in Florida. As for the boredom of a slow season. I'll take the boredom over 2-3 weeks without electricity and potable water. I'll take it that you have never had to go through a direct landfall from a hurricane after that statement. From experience I will tell you it is not all that fun. Watching and listening to the storm, being awe struck by natures power slowly ends and the cleanup begins. You rely solely on your preparation for the storm. After Francis and Jeanne we spent 5 total weeks without power. No grocery stores for a little over a week each time. 80 gallons of gasoline kept the generator running long enough for a couple of stores to open. We were very prepared for those storms and it still was not fun. I'll take the boredom...Hell make it a double.

Edited by M.A. (Mon Jul 13 2009 04:52 PM)


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gatorman
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Re: El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10 [Re: M.A.]
      #85731 - Mon Jul 13 2009 05:09 PM

nice of you to assume that I must have never been thru a hurricane, problem with that logic is I have been thru many, been here for over 35 years,and yes it really does stink being without water, power, and the unessentals, but i guess thats what makes people different, I respect all weather can do, and am awstruck by the wonders, then there are people that just would rather miss the beauty of all mother nature can throw at us. i would assume that you are the latter, you really dont know what your missing. bring it!!

Edited by gatorman (Mon Jul 13 2009 11:09 PM)


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Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center