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Tropical Depression Two in unfavorible conditions, likely to fall apart or dissipate tomorrow.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 19 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3193 (8 y 8 m) (Wilma)
13.9N 53.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1012mb
Moving:
Wnw at 20 mph
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Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1070
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: MikeC]
      #86670 - Mon Aug 31 2009 01:41 PM

Just a footnote on 94L, AF304 is currently en route to the system, *for tomorrow's tasked mission. Not known to me whether they will venture a detour into the system today, in fact.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2262
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #86671 - Mon Aug 31 2009 01:45 PM

As noted by cieldumort, this convection is related to a somewhat smaller upper level low that has been moving generally westward over the past couple of days. If you use a little imagination there might be a weak circulation near 22.7N 70.4W at 31/17Z. Perhaps a code yellow area at 18Z - or perhaps not. The Bermuda extention of the Atlantic ridge appears to be nudging slowly westward.
ED


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 237
Loc: Sinajana, Guam 13.46N 144.74E
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86672 - Mon Aug 31 2009 02:43 PM

Playing with the microwave imaging it appears 37 ghz has the best handle on potential COC.

Word of advice, don't link to time sensitive polar satellite images they only refresh every 6 hours and the pass is narrow

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage

Edited by craigm (Mon Aug 31 2009 04:22 PM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 819
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: craigm]
      #86677 - Mon Aug 31 2009 04:36 PM

94L looks very sheared to me and it it hard to see any closed circulation. Not ready for prime time yet, I would say.

--------------------
doug


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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: doug]
      #86678 - Mon Aug 31 2009 06:37 PM

Here is the closest bouy data:

Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 210 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 7.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.4 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.81 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.03 in ( Rising
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

because there was a westerly wind blowing a while does that mean the low is trying to close off ??
If you read down the page, it looks like there was wind from the west for about 3 hours.

I also wanted to add that if you look at Dvorak Color Infrared Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-bd.html

It looks like 94L is starting to have a Northerly motion. Possibly interacting with the two Lls infront and ontop of it ??

Edited by Beach (Mon Aug 31 2009 06:41 PM)


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SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
looking impressive [Re: craigm]
      #86679 - Mon Aug 31 2009 08:27 PM

It sure has nice outflow already, and it's not sucking in dry air from any quadrant. Additionally, I see a comma shape development of deep convection.

I don't see anything to determine a general motion. Perhaps wnw....perhaps almost due west.

what say the mets? Is this a player? LOOKS LIKE IT TO ME....


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: Beach]
      #86680 - Mon Aug 31 2009 08:45 PM

interesting to note the navy/nrl track. they are saying its moving northwest, when the NHC is saying west northwest. am i missing something?

nrl track

their discussion...

WTNT01 KNGU 311201
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 311201Z AUG 09//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA/301201Z AUG 09//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT01 KNGU 301201)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.4N 51.0W TO 16.9N 55.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 310600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.4N 51.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
AT 31/06Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 51.0W TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS. THIS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27 TO 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SYSTEM ARE SOUTHERLY
25 TO 30 KTS. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD,
UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR DECREASES PRODUCING CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 011201Z.//


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1070
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #86681 - Mon Aug 31 2009 09:54 PM

For starters, you have to check the times of all issued advisories, be they ATCFAs or STDS, or anything else.

Also, tracking estimates seem likely to remain pretty unsteady with 94L until we get either a recon in there, or something resembling the starting of an eyewall. It has been a bit of an elongated system with two believable cocs.. and one of the few instances where many may strongly differ in opinion with the official word from NHC - I'm largely in the it-could-have-been designated many hours ago camp, and suspect a more dominant center has actually been forming and is closer to 16N 55W, more co-located with the deep convection, and heading NW. The fact is, we have had no buoy or ship data from within 90 miles of that location in over twelve hours. None. Most of the microwave passes have been partial, at best. And traditional IR satellite is almost useless in a situation like this. It is critical that recon gets in there as soon as possible to determine if in fact a tiny, compact circulation does exist in that region. Until then, we're all best-guessing.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1211
Loc: South Florida
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: cieldumort]
      #86682 - Mon Aug 31 2009 11:15 PM

Well put Ciel.. very well put. A true problem, especially if a second center is forming. Surprising that there have been no ship reports, for some reason you'd think there would be some. You bring up a lot of good points.

Also been rereading discussion from NRL and looking at it... depends on where the center is as to how far from the islands it is.

Shows nicely on funktop and water vapor as well as having a nice roll to it..

Funktop is green and Dvorak is very solid

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-bd.html

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 136
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: LoisCane]
      #86683 - Tue Sep 01 2009 01:34 AM

94L seems to be undergoing rapid intesification, IMO, based on a number of satellite loops. A big cluster of convection has fired up over what appears to be a circulation center, can't tell if it's low level yet or not, but very good outflow is now beginning, and I'm starting to find it difficult not to classify it as a Tropical Depression at the very least, due to the dangers that such a well organized wave or better would present to maritime shipping, among other things.

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blue flash
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 4
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: JoshuaK]
      #86684 - Tue Sep 01 2009 01:48 AM

Agreed....expect we skip by the TD stage, expect tropical storm advisory at next update.

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flanewscameraman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 32
Loc: Palm Beach County, FLA
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: blue flash]
      #86685 - Tue Sep 01 2009 01:51 AM

By all appearances, 94L has organized...Let me know your thoughts..

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ncskywarn
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 5
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: flanewscameraman]
      #86686 - Tue Sep 01 2009 01:53 AM

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010535
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT IT
STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION
CENTER. HOWEVER...SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

My guess is the NHC is going to wait until an aircraft investigates 94L this afternoon to see if they can find a LLCC before initiating advisories.

--------------------
Certified Skywarn Spotter


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: MikeC]
      #86687 - Tue Sep 01 2009 01:56 AM

IMO this is the best I seen it look. Its starting to get its act together as of now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html


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ncskywarn
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 5
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: hurricane expert]
      #86688 - Tue Sep 01 2009 04:54 AM

Looking at the latest satellite image it still looks like its under some shear .

--------------------
Certified Skywarn Spotter


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 366
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow [Re: ncskywarn]
      #86689 - Tue Sep 01 2009 06:42 AM

01/10Z - Good morning! At first glance you'd think 94L is a Tropical Depression, possibly a Tropical Storm. Once again, the upper environment directly over 94L and to its right is downright perfect for development; the problems arise with the upper low to the north of Hispanola and strong SW shear immediately to it's east and immediately to 94L's west and north. We're all looking at satellite and telling ourselve it looks like its ready to be promoted to tropical storm status. I don't have at my disposal what the shear forecast is along the path of the storm nor the array of charts and model data NHC has. A snapshot of the upper environment currently on its projected course is downright hostile for the time being and closer examination of the satellite interpretation reveals this to be true if you look at the higher cloud tops to the west and north of what we believe is the center of the system.

Looking at the overall pattern this morning, not much has changed since this time yesterday. Looking at new model data and what we all know is true about dying fronts in the GOM and Atlantic is it looks like they're trying to cook something up off the Atlantic Coast, but before I buy into that we all have to keep in mind what the overall pattern is right now and that is there is a longwave trough over the eastern half of the US and it is broad. Borrowing a page from Danny, any shortwave energy dropping into the base of the trough and ejecting northeast is likely to promote cyclogenesis along the old front; in this case, not likely to be tropical, but extratropical. As long as the longwave is there GOM is closed to tropical formation and in fact shear analysis only supports an area near the FL keys that has an environment friendly for development. Anything does develop it will be a dynamic system; not tropical.

All that said, it's possible 94L could be designated either a strong tropical depression or weak storm. There is no way at this time the system can develop in front of the shear that is in front of it unless the light environment that is over and immediately to its east rides with the storm. The upper low is expected to remain in the area at least through H+48 hours and upper ridge to the north of the system. After that, upper models get interesting and I wouldn't be surprised based on what I'm looking at that the systems meanders around north of Puerto Rico and if that happens then all bets are off as the longwave trough over the east weakens and the upper ridge in the Atlantic begins to make its presence known. In fairness, the models don't have a good handle on 94L and barely even pick it up at the upper levels, but it is there in the low levels.

Bottom line 94L for the near future has a tough road to hoe with shear ahead of the system; as we move forward and upper pattern changes, stay tune. I don't think whatever cyclogenesis occurs off the Atlantic coast will have anything to do with 94L which too far away at this time; unlike Danny, who got absorbed as the upper low ejecting out of the SE USA a few days ago. I'm not as confident long term as I was yesterday and day before with this system staying away from the United States.

Finally, our thoughts and prayers are with our Baja California neighbors.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver

Edited by AlaberryPatch (Tue Sep 01 2009 07:03 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
94L [Re: berrywr]
      #86690 - Tue Sep 01 2009 07:23 AM

Awesome update.
Here's San Juan NWS morning AFD excerpt.

FCST FOR THU-FRI WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK/EVOLUTION
OF BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH AT THIS TIME REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
CENTER FIXES DONE AT 06Z BY TAFB AND SAB AGENCIES WERE
AT 16.3N 55.6W AND 16.4N 55.9W RESPECTIVELY. COORDINATED WITH
BOTH ANALYSTS ON THE PHONE THIS MORNING AND BOTH INDICATED A LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE FIXES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MULTIPLE CENTERS. A 0406Z TMI MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTS THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION BUT WITH NO
CLOSED CIRCULATION YET. 06Z EARLY CYCLE NHC MODELS SHOW TRACKS
RANGING FROM ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF PR TO AS FAR NORTH AS 20N
IN THE 72 TO 96 HR TIME FRAME OR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MODELS TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK FCST UNTIL
AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HRS. INTERESTS IN PR/USVI ARE REMINDED
THAT TRACK FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE IN THE ORDER OF 167 TO 230
NAUTICAL MILES IN THE 72 TO 96 HR TIME FRAME. THE FIRST HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INTERCEPT THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON AT 2PM AND WILL GIVE A BETTER PICTURE OF THE STRUCTURE
OF THE STORM...ITS EXACT LOCATION AND WIND FIELD.
There is a lot more to the San Juan AFD. Follow the link below.. danielw
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/printable.php?pil=AFD&sid=SJU&date=2009-09-01%2008:22:24

Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 01 2009 07:28 AM)


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 265
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: 94L [Re: danielw]
      #86691 - Tue Sep 01 2009 07:28 AM

...and just to add the remainder from Daniel's post from PR....

AS MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM HPC`S INTERNATIONAL
DESK YESTERDAY...THE FLOW DOMINATING THE ATLC TO THE NORTH OF 20N
AND TO THE EAST OF 70W IS CHARACTERIZED BY NUMEROUS TUTT LOWS WITH
CELLS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING MIGRATORY AND OF SHORT
DURATION RESULTING IN VERY ILL DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS. I WOULD
EXPECT THE TRACK FCST WITH THIS STORM TO BE EXTREMELY CHALLENGING
WITH LOTS OF ERRATIC MOVEMENTS AND WOBBLES WITH A MUCH HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY.

THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THE STORM IS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A
TON OF RAINFALL ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH IS
STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS SUGGEST SYSTEM MOVING AT AVERAGE
OF SPEED OF ABOUT 7 KTS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
WITH THE GFDL INDICATING SPEEDS AS SLOW AS 4 KT AT TIMES. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN THU
NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. SINCE THIS IS STILL BEYOND 48 HRS IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HURRICANE STATEMENT WILL BE FRESHEN LATER THIS MORNING TO UPDATE
STORM POSITION AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 94L and GOM? [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #86692 - Tue Sep 01 2009 08:20 AM

A few of the NWS Offices along the Gulf Coast are mentioning a tropical/ hybrid type system spin up this week in the GOM.
While looking through the extended forecast matrices from New Orleans and eastward I noticed that all of the Coastal stations are forecast to have increasing easterly wind beginning Sunday. In the 8 to 14 mph range.
Not indicative in itself but again something to watch... out the back door.


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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
Posts: 61
Re: 94L [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #86693 - Tue Sep 01 2009 08:27 AM

One of the first rules of following tropical cyclone formation is... focus on the surface flow, not the pretty blobs. Tropical cyclones are surface based systems. You can have the most intense-looking, vigorously spinning blob you've ever seen, but if there is no surface organization there is no tropical cyclone... just an impressive MCS. 94L's organization continues to be poor.

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