cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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As for tropical cyclone development, I think the GOM looks pretty much benign through at least the next 48 hours. Upper level winds are simply unfavorable for development at this time, despite the existence of at least two surface features, bountiful moisture, and very toasty SSTs. However, scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will probably be ongoing, off and on.
I wanted to chime back in on 92L for a moment - Systems like this... often never a good idea to write them off too fast. And judging by the first real buoy data on this feature, taken at a time when it had already been significantly diminished and disrupted by shear and dry air, it looks that 92L very well may have been blowing at or (probably) even above 35 knots for a good while when the surface circulation was almost definitely closed off during the overnight last night and early this morning.
Now tonight, it does appear that the trof which had been imparting so much shear above 10-15N is lifting out a little, and weakening some. Also, because 92L has traveled along with such a massive plume of deep moisture, the dry air which had started to get injected into the system throughout the day Tuesday, looks to be getting pushed back to the west, as 92L advances.
Most recently, very deep convection has blown back up over at least the northern semicircle, probably in no small part fanned by the increased southwesterly shear. This level of increased shear can sometimes actually enhance tropical cyclone formation (think of blowing on a smoldering pile of leaves and needles, so as to get a fire started), and I believe that, at least at the moment, we are witnessing this tonight.
Stay tuned...
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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"Systems like this ... often never a good dea to write them off too fast" seems to be indeed good advise when it comes to 92L. Excellent regeneration of convection this evening in its diurnal cycle. The southwesterly shear probably is enhancing the convective development and the shear zone itself is breaking down about 24 hours earlier than initially expected. SSEC University of Wisconsin suggests that the zone may be relocating further to the south:
SSEC 24hr Windshear Change
My best guess position estimate for 16/02Z was 14.3N 47.8W with movement still west northwest to northwest.
ED
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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That convection flair-up is VERY impressive tonight. I had not expected that from this system. So the SW shear is encouraging the convection.....is that because it is night time? Will this same shear tear it down tomorrow? This system has been intriguing from the outset, but seems to not want to die despite the 's best efforts at wishing it away!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Very impressive... i noticed this evening there was a lot of spanding with moisture in the mid levels near and around this low.... it appears that there very low shear over the area right now... atleast for the last 4-6 hrs.... almost perfect upper level anticyclone outflow in all directions... and warm temps are increasing in the area...
i think the surface "center" of the low is near the red dot in my image... on the sw side of the deep convection... it almost appears there is a mid level center trying to catch up with the surface center?
it still appears to me the stronger shear is just right down the road...
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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92L is feisty and tenacious and has shown resiliency. The shear it will encounter will most likely end any possible concentrated circulation to what appears to be the beginning of a very active season. The remains of 92L would most likely end up as an open wave in the Bahamas and South Florida.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Note
Thumbnail of 92L on left sidebar is not updating. Neither is the weblink at CIMSS.
Upper left corner thumbnail is current.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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looks like it has just run into a brick wall. The west half has flattened and the circulation there is being impeded. Shear should do this in today, IMO
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doug
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Adam S
Unregistered
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What are the chances that 92L survives the shear and becomes a tropical depression? On satelite right now 92L looks like a depression.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
What are the chances that 92L survives the shear and becomes a tropical depression? On satelite right now 92L looks like a depression.
It's pretty much done, path will keep it an open wave and bring some rain to the islands. It'll be watched for a while, but I still can't see it developing into anything. My usual approach of finding reasons it won't develop and then eliminating them one by one until it has a decent chance, not the other way around. Climatology (It's June!) and the shear nw of the system were two things I couldn't ignore the last few days, and it's still the main driver of why I think it won't ever amount to anything.
The importance of the various factors change over the course of the season, but early and late season climatology is really far up there as a negative development factor. (Not so much between July-October)
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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What precisley would be the future forecast track? Would it most likely cross Cen. America into the E.Pac. or head NW into the Gulf, say about a week down the road? By then it might only be a typical wave, but I know from past experiences that something that flares up once may very well flare up again.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Not very likely as the upper levels of the system are being sheared to the east. Sat loop below indicates the remaining low level remnants are still moving west toward the Lesser Antilles. The mountainous regions there shoud eliminate the possiblity of of anything crossing the C ATL gap.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...0000&loop=0
Further investigation reveals a rather large circulation that may just narrowly miss the Northern Lesser Antilles. Question is, will it pass thru the eastern Hebert Box .
Cyclonic circular pattern is located N of the dark spot E of the Islands and W of the thunderstorm complex.
Edited by danielw (Thu Jun 17 2010 09:20 AM)
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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Still on life support, but not completely out the of picture, either, as there are still periodic flare-ups
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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hogrunr
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
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It seems as though the shear is actually feeding moisture into the system right now. You can see from the WV imagery that it is bordered by very dry air to the north. For it to have a chance of doing anything, it needs to get out of the shear it is currently under (30-50 knots). It needs to make it past 70W.
11pm CST Edit: The convection is much stronger as to be expected overnight. Also to note though, the shear that was present over the system has begun a slight shift to the north. The system is now under approx. 20-30 knot shear instead of the previous range of up to 50 knots. It will be interesting to see what data can be gathered from the islands and nearby buoy's as this passes by.
There is a gap in all of the Satellite data, so it is hard to tell what the movement of the system is right now, but it seems to be West to WNW. The has the system listed as having a 20% chance of development in the next 48 hours, still not much, but higher than the 0% they had it listed as in the previous reports.
CIMSS Shear Map
Edited by hogrunr (Fri Jun 18 2010 12:03 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Remnants of 92L continue to flare tonight. Moderate convection with about 40% coverage of lightning.
Upper cirrus cloud are starting to show thin 'fingers' suggestive of little to no shear at the upper levels on the western half of the system.
Martinique Radar is showing some level 4 thunderstorm activity but I don't see any circulation. Movement is toward the west.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html
Java water vapor loop is here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
92L has been removed from the www.ssd.noaa.gov page at this time.
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saltysenior
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 19
Loc: stuart,fl.
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hope i am doing this right........lost all old stuff on my ''bookmarks''.......could someone start a new thread with the best links for the coming hurricane season ??? one i can't find is a satellite view of africa showing the start of these waves.......thanks guys and i pray for a quite season w/ this oil floating around..
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Most of the better satellite websites can be found on the Main Page. Just scroll down a bit.
92L is still going...
While shear has done some damage to the system is appears to be staying together as an area of thunderstorms. They haven't consolidated like they did yesterday/ last night. But it's a bit early in the evening in the Antilles.
We will have to wait and see what they system does over night as the mountains of the Antilles and the shear are trying to tear it apart.
Also you can try Dundee you will need to register, but its free. Also
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Jun 18 2010 07:55 PM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Well another year, if this was late July or August, 92invest would be on it's way to a be Hurricane,
This maybe a interesting year with higher temperatures then been recorded in recent history.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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I wouldn't write this tropical wave off yet. I've been looking at the run this evening and there are a couple of interesting features; one being the mid-continental subtropical upper ridge setting up shop over the Mid-South and a piece of the Bermuda sub-tropical upper ridge off the coast of FL with an inverted upper trough near FL sandwiched between the two ridges aloft. Wind Shear in this entire area is quite light. It's something to keep an eye on as we go forward in time. The upper pattern isn't expected to change very much for several days and in fact the at H+120 hours has a vorticity max in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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Tropical Waves generally are shallow systems therefore steered by wind currents at & below 5000 feet or 850 milibars. You can see this by viewing upper level analysis and satellite imagery loops as low level features may in fact be going in completely opposite directions than for example the tops of thunderstorms. In satellite imagery posted within this thread you will note a very strong thunderstorm in the classic cell shape and some very, very cold tops; however you will note on the western edge how sharp it goes from very cold tops to non-existent in short order and quite a bit of blow off and debris to its east. Upper level winds are quite strong from the west literally shearing the system. The wave while capable of developing thunderstorms cannot remain cohesive from surface to the upper levels thus the wave is not in an environment for development into a depression at this time. As I posted a moment ago...if the wave continues to hold itself together there may be an opportunity beyond 72 to 96 hours as upper ridges aloft will be centered over the Mid-South and off the coast of FL with upper level troughing sandwiched between the two. For the moment wind shear is at a minimum over the entire area. Assuming the upper level trough remains weak; by weak not generating upper level wind shear an opportunity will exists as it steers itself from the hostile envelope it's currently in as of 19/00Z. I hope this helps?
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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It has been rather persistent in spite of the shear. Still bears watching as it continues to move toward Cuba, Bahamas, Florida.
Update: Lots of shear apparent in the latest vis pics.
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Michael
PWS
Edited by MichaelA (Sat Jun 19 2010 11:37 AM)
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