MikeC
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5:43AM EDIT 16 June 2010
The wave in the Central Caribbean (92L) flared up overnight and satellite intensity estimations (dvorak t-numbers) are up higher than they have ever been, however upper level conditions are not favorable, and likely will destroy the system later today. There is a 10% chance that If the system persists like it has it could develop.
It will most likely continue moving westward as an open wave, without development.
6:58AM EDIT 15 June 2010
The wave in the Central Caribbean (92L) has persisted overnight, and for a while was looking better on satellite. This morning it appears to be losing some of the deep convection, and without it development won't occur. I expect the chances to fluctuate on an overall trend down slowly through the day for development, and most likely it will continue moving westward as an open wave, without development.
It is about to run out of time for development before running into shear.
6:50AM EDIT 14 June 2010
The wave (92L) is still holding together this morning, but not quite enough to support a tropical depression. It could form tonight or tomorrow if it continues to persist, and slowly organize like it has been. Models still do not have a very good handle on the wave. It is starting to gain some latitude as well. See Ed Dunham's take on the low latitude systems.. Invest 92L has a chance to join a short list of systems if it should attain Tropical Depression status while still below 10 degrees in latitude.
Convection is starting to organize around the center and consolidating. The overall large size it had yesterday is giving way to a more concentrated area.
With the consolidation it may adjust the apparent center slightly more to the north. This is another reason why the chances are still 60%. Once there is a clear center chances will go up. The condition of the upper air anticyclone relative to the low level center can also slow the development.
The window for development is today and tomorrow before conditions with shear will likely worsen.
Another wave exiting Africa (again, odd for the type in June) may be worth watching later as well, other wave opportunities will probably exist through next week as well.
The pattern this year is nearly opposite of the prevalent slow/weak development pattern of last year.
Those in the lesser Antilles will want to watch this system, but probably just for rainfall.
8:00PM EDIT 13 June 2010
The wave in the Central Atlantic (92L) has persisted throughout the day and now has approximately a 60% chance for development into a tropical depression within the next 48 hours. It has short term conditions favorable for development, and it is projected to move mostly westward toward the Caribbean Islands, where shear may increase. Those in the Windward islands of the Caribbean will want to watch this system if it develops.
This is an unusual situation for June, so any development may not last very long.
9:00AM EDIT 13 June 2010
Signs of larger (or broader) area of low level circulation are starting to appear in the tropical wave known as 92L. Development chances may be closer to 40-50%. Movement of this area is generally toward the west around 9 mph.
The wave is over some abnormally warm water, but it still lacks the convection near the "center", roughly 7.6N / 34W. The overall flow is really large. It'll probably take another day to get wrapped in enough around the center to become a real candidate for development, if it does. Looking at water vapor imagery, It won't have that large of a window for development (see the elongation along the northwestern side of the area), which is probably the strongest reason it won't develop much, if at all. Still development chances are currently on an upward trend.
8:00AM EDIT 13 June 2010
The tropical wave in the southern Central Atlantic (92L), has not changed much overnight. Still about a 20-30% chance for development. If it persists through the day it may have a chance for development, but odds still are that nothing will occur with the system other than early season hype.
Leave a comment here if you have any thoughts on it.
There is a short term favorable environment for development, but this likely won't last long enough for the system to become organized. It does "look" good for a June system, however.
5:45PM EDIT 12 June 2010
Invest 92L is being tracked in the Atlantic, it is not likely to develop. This far east in June is rare, however.
92L is quite organized for this time in June, and is in an area of relatively low shear along with warm water temperatures. It likely will not last, but it still has about a 20-30% chance for development over the next few days as it moves westward. It is worth watching, but likely not to do much. It has no low-level circulation to speak of at the moment and models are a bit too early to believe.
If the system persists, chances for development may go up, but the more likely scenario of it not developing has climatology behind it. The very low latitude is also a factor against development.
Shear is likely to increase as it approaches the Windward islands, which will keep it in check. The short term factors seem, at first glance, seem like it may allow for development, but without a persistent low level circulation center it is too early to expect anything from this at all. Tomorrow will be telling.
8AM EDT 10 June 2010
The wave in the eastern Caribbean was sheared more than expected, enough to reduce chances of any development, even in the future. June remains mostly quiet.
Original Update
There is a tropical wave approaching the windward islands of the Caribbean that has no chance to develop in the short term, but as it enters into the central and western Caribbean shear begins to drop off and it has a chance to develop.
Worth this weekend into next week, but not in the near term. If anything occurs, it would likely just continue westward into Central America pr the Yucatan into Mexico, most likely as a rain event late next week. Rain in general across the Caribbean may be enhanced by this and a system.
What's odd about this particular wave is you usually do not see this type of wave until later July into August.
Other than this, there is not too much else going on, shear remains fairly strong in the Atlantic at least for now, but likely will start to fall off into July.
The water temperatures remain, in general, are a good deal warmer than last year at this time.
We'll be watching this wave over the next several days.
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LoisCane
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It's really low. Models do pull it north tho.
Normally, I wouldn't think this much on it but the size of it and the models are compelling.
Models have been consistently playing with waves and eventually one will turn into an early Atlantic TD.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif
Very low though.
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Storm Hunter
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just looked at the 00Z data... very interesting to watch 92L... its very large and has protection to the north from the SAL...
Shear is near the islands... looking at the sats this evening... the wave is doing pretty nice for where its at for this time of year... takes wave north of islands as high to north build again over the atlantic to its north... evening sats show nice banding in southern part of wave... if theres not a surface spin in there... it appears its not to far off... very impressive for this far out and this low in lat. I think tmrw will be interesting... i just don't see to much in the short term from not making this wave more healthier!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html
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cieldumort
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Been keeping one eye out on this wave for quite a while now. By any measure, 92L is extremely robust for the location given the time of year - and it has been traveling in a cocoon of high water vapor content and relatively low shear for the better part of its exit from Africa. While a tight low level circulation does not look to have formed - yet - 92L appears to be embodied by a modest gyre (at least for the Atlantic basin) with a few embedded eddies or maxes.
In the very near term, the current low latitude trajectory should serve to both hinder and benefit. On one hand, there isn't going to be much in the way of any significant boost from the Coriolis effect that far south, but on the other, staying under 10-15 north keeps the system traveling over higher SSTs and out of detrimental shear.
It seems reasonable to conclude that a significant window for further development is open through at least the next 24 to perhaps as many as 72 hours. After that, if 92L has not yet developed a solid inner core, either some potential interactions with land/near land effects, or a run in with increasing shear and dry air from its north/northwest, could put a stop to any further development for at least a day or few.
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danielw
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NHC has bumped up the chance for development to 30% at 8 AM EDT.
Rather tough looking system for June 13th...
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MikeC
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If it keeps up today, it has a better chance tomorrow. I'm finally seeing some broader signs of a low level circulation. Right now though it's still leaning against it. (Although chances may go up to 30-50% later today if the low level circulation takes hold)
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marco67red
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Good morning ...
Not trying to be nit-picky, but thought I'd mention what I'm thinking is a typo in the 9am post -
Are you actually discussing 92L in the following?
>>9:00AM EDIT 13 June 2010
Signs of larger (or broader) area of low level circulation are starting to appear in 90L. Development chances may be closer to 40-50%. Movement is generally toward the west around 9 mph <<
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MikeC
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Fixed, thanks for the mention.
The wave is over some abnormally warm water, but it still lacks the convection near the "center", roughly 7.6N / 34W. The overall flow is really large. It'll probably take another day to get wrapped in enough around the center to become a real candidate for development -- but I'm not sold. One positive factor for development is it's pretty wet, no real dry air around it. The models are interesting on it, is on the weak side, tends to be stronger. The SHIPS intensity model is a bit too much right now.
Looking at water vapor imagery, It won't have that large of a window for development (see the northwestern side of the area), which is probably the strongest reason it won't develop much if at all.
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CoconutCandy
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Excellent discussions this morning, as usual !!
Yes, this is certainly an interesting development in this region for this time of year, as 'Cape Verde Systems' don't get going here until the first part of August, climatologically speaking.
During the overnight hours, there appears to have been a steady increase in the amount and extent of convective activity associated with this system, and moreover and more recently, although convection is warming somewhat, it appears that it's becoming better organized, and this Invest is now beginning to take on a rather 'healthy looking' appearance, as suggested by this animated visible satellite imagery.
Looking carefully at this animation, I'm noticing the beginnings of what might be considered convective banding features, with discernible arced shaped banding wrapping around in the northern quadrant of a broad 1012 mb low, and a much longer, yet more linear feature, being drawn into the developing circulation from the WSW.
Although convection is not quite as deep, with slightly warmer cloud tops, as compared to the overnight hours, this is rather typical during daylight hours, presumably because of the so called 'diurnal convective minimum' cycle, owing to the slightly warmer ambient temperatures at cloud top levels. Tonight should be rather telling, however, and we should expect to see a dramatic increase, again, of the type of sustained, deep, bursting convection that occurred last night.
Also becoming noticeable this morning is a slow NW'ward movement of the overall circulation envelope, which now appears to be crossing over 35 W longitude, near 7 degrees N, as model guidance is beginning to suggest, now that several runs have been compiled. Model consensus is rather clustered towards a general WNW or NW motion through the next few days, unfortunately tracking it right towards the Caribbean Windward Islands, or Lesser Antilles.
As mentioned previously, the probability of this Invest becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours has been increased to 30%, and the latest (8am EDT) tropical weather discussion from the TPC / has begun to refer to this system as a "Special Feature".
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ON A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 07N34W IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ... THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT FAVORABLE CHARACTERISTICS FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
And as the last few TPC tropical discussions have mentioned, the broad surface low appears to be following the westward propagating wave axis, in a field of high preciptable water content and low upper level wind shear, both conducive and essential for tropical cyclogenesis to occur.
A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN 25W-41W. THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SURROUNDING THE LOW IS GENERATING NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION.
ALOFT, AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ... AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE (ASSOCIATED) UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS HELPING TO VENTILATE CONVECTION AND SUSTAIN LIFT IN THE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
In short, IMHO, this strong tropical wave has a lot going for it, with SHIPS Intensity guidance nearing hurricane strength in 36 hours from the last model run, which seems rather high, and presumably due to the expected redevelopment of deep, bursting and cycling convection near and over the nascent LLC center in the upcoming overnight hours, when the diurnal convective maximum will be at it's greatest, and the possible development of a feature over the LLC.
I, for one, am more bullish on development of this system, at least in the short term, than some here for these reasons:
1) A broad, low level circulation with an embedded 1012 mb low is already well established.
2) Very high values of precipitable water are over a large area for the convection to work with.
3) Very low upper level wind shear is over and ahead of it's expected track, at least short term.
4) A well established upper level ridge overlying the area, providing for good diffluence aloft.
5) No foreseeable entrainment of dry air at low or mid levels and well buffered from the 'SAL layer', further north.
6) Very warm, anomalously high SST's over a broad area, and it's associated higher 'Oceanic Heat Content' value.
7) The apparent recent nascent development of a discernible Low Level Circulation Center.
8) And finally, the apparent increase of 'banding features' associated with this developing circulation.
I think the next Tropical Outlook, due out in a couple hours, might maintain the system as is, for now, considering the convective warming trends we've seen during today's daylight hours. But with all it has going for it, I fully expect to see this system consolidate during tonight's convective max, and we may well be looking at the Atlantic's first tropical cyclone of 2010, Tropical Depression ONE, by sometime tomorrow. This should prove to be very interesting!
...
Edited by CoconutCandy (Sun Jun 13 2010 10:09 PM)
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Hugh
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Quite impressive to have a quasi-Cape Verde storm even with a possibility of developing in the middle of June.
Convection seems to have warmed a bit over the last several hours. I'd say 30% chance may be generous. The visible loop does show the beginning of a LLC, though. If that holds together for the next day or two, it's probably going to get organized enough by then to be classified. Models are a bit disturbing in putting this thing through the islands.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Scottsvb1
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Center is near 6.7N and 36.1W as I type this. Pressure near 1010mb moving just north of due west @ 13mph.
Overall it looks likes its getting better organized...Now we need to see T-Storms develop and sustain near the COC. Probably by Monday or Tues once it gets to near 10N
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scottsvb
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Forgot to login above.
Models are not picking up on this so far...(with TS development) Probably shear north of 18N will hinder development some...also rising pressures in the Atlantic. It does have a decent chance if it stays below 17N thru this week.
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MichaelA
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Rather impressive looking for this early and so far East. If it does develop into a classified tropical storm, it may be a harbinger of things to come this season - not good. So far, it is already August hot here on the Gulf coast of Florida.
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Hugh
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Quote:
Rather impressive looking for this early and so far East. If it does develop into a classified tropical storm, it may be a harbinger of things to come this season - not good. So far, it is already August hot here on the Gulf coast of Florida.
There are some Augusts that aren't THIS hot, in fact.
I just pulled up the floaters, and now the spin is clearly evident on both the visible and AVN loop. It's getting close to "code red" on the 's probability chart (>50%), I'd guess (45% seems about right, in other words).
The BAM models do not paint a pretty picture at all for the long-term outlook... putting it straight through the Caribbean, at least straight through the Lesser Antilles. Someone check the calendar - it IS June 13th, right?
Update: The 2pm does indeed put the system on the brink of "code red"... with a 50% probability of development during the next 48 hours.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Jun 13 2010 05:40 PM)
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typhoon_tip
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NHC has as of 2PM elevated their probability to 50% and I feel rightfully so. It is important not to be hung up on climatology; climate does not dictate what any given event will do, but is cumulative result of many seasons, then normalized.
SSTs
As others have gone great strides to point out and is common knowledge at this point, the SSTs in the region between the Puerto Rico archipelago and Africa are in +AMO.
SAL:
There does not appear to be any SAL toxicity in the vicinity of the ingest regions for the zygote cyclone. There is some SAL related material observable here: http://cimss.ssec.wi...vetrak/sal.html ...but this is consistent with normal background contaminant - it would appear - and not directly associated with the burgeoning circulation of the system, either.
Deep layer shear:
Nearly non-existent at this time when studying the upper most elevation wind overlay at 's satellite website: http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-avn.html The mlv cut is difficult to ascertain because cloud tags are used to determine vectors and they are obscured by a fairly healthy U/A anvil debris field; therefor, have to rely on modeling (as far as I am aware) to determine if there is a pesky intervening layer of shear.
Madden-Julian Oscillation related tropospheric tendency :
Currently the Atlantic Basin et al is in a neutral-positive 200mb anomaly state, http://www.cpc.ncep....m_monthly.shtml, which lay-term is usually conducive to sustaining, not compensating, for upward vertical motion in ambient field. Any system on the rail service between African and the western Basin would avail of that circumstance.
Integrated energy:
The circulation envelopes a huge area. Larger systems tend to spin up slower. However, given to their immensity they are somewhat more resistant to negative impacts. It all really comes down to momentum and larger systems having more of it, but there are also papers that discuss why in more technical terms.
I have not spent much time looking at models, but unless they are parameterized deliberately I can't imagine they would to exceptionally well until such time as the system is initialized in the input more sufficiently.
John
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Hugh
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Quote:
NHC has as of 2PM elevated their probability to 50% and I feel rightfully so. It is important not to be hung up on climatology; climate does not dictate what any given event will do, but is cumulative result of many seasons, then normalized.
As of 8pm, it's now a code red, 60%. Based upon current satellite presentation trends, I expect we will have TD One by the 11am advisory package tomorrow, if not before.... IF the organization trend continues.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Clark
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Formation locations and tracks of all June North Atlantic tropical systems, 1851-2009. The furthest east was Ana in 1979, forming at 45.0°W. The furthest south was the second storm of 1933, forming at 8.8°W. Invest 92L, currently at 7.0°N and 35.5°W, would eclipse both records were it to form in the next day or so. Source: NOAA Coastal Services Center.
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weathernet
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Wow......., what an interesting year this might turn into.
Though the 2:00 a.m. read as follows
...... "HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...."
I certainly cannot help but see a marked improvement in the overall consolidation of convection. The anticipated diurnal processes at hand, not only has there been an increase in center co-located convection, but am seeing a classic wrap around hook beginning to take place on the west side of what appears to be an evolving and better defined center. Furthermore, I would argue for increasing evidence of the start of some banding features coming in from the south. Whether or not a special advisory is issued for this system during these early hours, is mute at this point. However given the increased convection within such an envelope system, and without any immediate impending UL shear, as far as I am concerned we have a bona-fide depression out there. If in fact a true core consolidation is finally taking place with this large system, than not only might the "up and down" pulsating cease, but I would be frankly surprised if we did not have our first named TS during the next 24 hours.
Frankly, I am less in awe of such an eastern forming tropical cyclone in June, or the conditions already at hand aiding in this systems development. Mostly, I can't get over the size and maturity of such a tropical wave, so early and so far east. For the most part, we are all assuming this Atlantic Hurricane Season to be busy. Perhaps a greater number of storms to be strong ( if for no other reason than the potential increase in over all activity ). However, might this early large envelope tropical system be also indicative of the greater majority of this seasons tropical systems? I vaguely recall Ana from 1979, being the first storm that season and yet forming pretty far to the east, yet if memory doesn't fail me ( though it might! ) I seem to recall it being a fairly small system. Only time will tell what the MOST critical concern will be - "WHERE" will the predominant tracks take this years systems. Though not stamped in stone, I believe history has shown that larger tropical cyclones ( despite potentially feeling greater impact by the Coriolis effect ) tend to often have longer tracks with less polar bias.
One final oddity regarding 92L, or at least one to me. During most Hurricane Seasons, one long range model or another ( usually ), typically dishes up a number of "ghost storms". Tropical systems that for days, are forecast to develop, only to show up perhaps as a wave, and then simply dissipate. This year we already are aware of foreboding SST's and the much advertised demise of El Nino. Yet despite this, certainly no real overly aggressive and deep systems yet forecasted by long term models. In fact, perhaps only ( ironically conservative ) to have hinted towards this current system. My recollection is that most longer range models would far easier pick up more accurately on such larger and more organized waves. So, it just strikes me as curious that such a larger "Cape Verde" type envelope system develop so easily materialize and develop ( given climatology ), yet without the more typically anticipated "modelcane" being well advertised well in advance.
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MikeC
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The wave (92L) is still holding together this morning, but not quite enough to support a tropical Depression. It could form tonight or tomorrow if it continues to persist, and slowly organize like it has been. Models still do not have a very good handle on the wave. It is starting to gain some latitude as well.
Another wave exiting Africa (again, odd for the type in June) may be worth watching later as well.
The pattern this year is nearly opposite of the prevalent slow/weak development pattern of last year.
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Hugh
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I gotta say, Mike... this is the best looking non-TD I've seen in a long time.
Nice banding features, decent outflow... convection near the obvious LLC.
What exactly is missing? It looks better than what have sometimes been classified as
tropical storms.
8am just released... basically no change to the wording. Still 60%. Looking at the satellite presention right now, I'd put it closer to 80%, personally.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Mon Jun 14 2010 11:51 AM)
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