WeatherNut
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Well guys its starting to look like we are cookin with gas now. The western most blob is showing some definite rotation and is beginning to absorb the eastern blob and bundle the energy. I think today might be the day this is going to get cranking. It is looking more impressive on the visible than it has to date
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
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NHC - - upgrades to Orange again - - do ya'll think the High Pressure ridge in the gulf will hold?
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scottsvb
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Yeah but the western blob is only a midlevel rotation.. we need a surface LLC and its forming slowly further west of Jamaica..it will take 30-48hrs @ least.
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MikeC
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Recon flights were pushed back to tomorrow afternoon, and looking at the system today that was a good call.
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danielw
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Visible satellite loop is showing two distinct vortices in the area.
93L located south of Haiti has a mass of low to mid level clouds over the COC.
X92L located just to the west of Jamaica is void of any central convection but still has a strong vortice that is visible on the loops.
I thought I saw both of these last night but IR isn't easy to pick out 3D objects.
I used the GHCC Visible 1 km page animation. Rotation is visible using a minimum of 3 images. Medium zoom and clink on the map just south of the Haitian Peninsula.
This may be why the Bam models are split with the others. One vortice will cross the Yucatan and the other goes toward the Northern GOM.
Heads up BP and the northern GOM. A popup storm will surprise you more than you think.
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hogrunr
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That is a good catch danielw. This means that, looking at the initialized positions of all of the 6z and even some of the 12Z models that are coming out, their initial positions for 93L are still way too far south and west of where it is actually located.
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MikeC
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Yes all the models are suspect, mainly because there still is no low level circulation, and they have all initialized what appears to be too far south and west.
If this develops it could get interesting quite fast, but don't buy into any intensity models this far out, especially as disorganized as the system is now.
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doug
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There seems to be a mid level cyclonic spin south of the Hatian peninsula. There seems to be a low level cyclonic tumble that is south of Jamica. All the energy is south and west of Hispanola, although some energy is gathering east of the low level spin near Jamica. My bet is on the eastern part of this developing, as the convergence of energy seems to be taking place there.
The models are taking the western point as their point of beginning. All bets are off until the spin really begins.
If that does occur back toward Haiti it wll deepen quickly. If the western point takes control that will take a little longer. We should look back iagain n about 12-14 hours (in the morning).
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doug
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stormtiger
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doug,
Is that low level spin or is that another mid level vortex?
Interesting look isn't it?
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doug
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If you mean the area south and slightly west of Jamaica, the low level clouds are seeming to rotate around a broad area. There is little or no convection there. It is all back to the west. Accuweather analyst this afternoon stated in the webcast this afternoon that this is the LLC of the developing system, and the models all run from this point. I don't necessarily agree, but what do I know?
The area south of Haiti does not show the low level couds circulating around the point of the spin which is clearly seen in the AVN and WV views. This indicates to me the spin there is well off the surface. The majority of the convective activity is there.
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doug
Edited by doug (Wed Jun 23 2010 07:28 PM)
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MikeC
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The new best track position is 16.6N 78.6W which is more north and west than the old ones.
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hogrunr
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I'm going to have to still agree with danielw and doug on this one. I don't think that just because there is an LLC in the general vicinity of the wave that this means the two are related. I think they may be two separate entities. I may be wrong, but I think the LLC at 16.6N 78.6W is an extraneous vortice.
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weatherguy08
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I agree that the LLC west of Jamaica likely won't be the focus of the potential tropical cyclone here. This is some little meso-low type thing that showed up and will probably dissipate, especially with the lack of any convection. I've seen it happen many times that there is a persistent, strong MLC that eventually mixes its way down to the surface that becomes a tropical depression.
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Jason
http://www.jasonsweathercenter.com
Andrew '92 - Lili '02 - Katrina '05 - Rita '05 - Humberto '07 - Gustav '08 - Ike '08 - Isaac '12 - Sandy '12
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doug
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Actually that area is more impressive now than several hours ago.
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doug
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stormtiger
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I do see a broad, low level area around 15.5/79.5. It looks the most organized now, but it is almost void of thunderstorms. Is that the area you are describing, Doug?
Most of the thunderstorm activity is further NE around 17/76.
I don't think 93L is much closer to becoming a TD than it was 2 days ago.
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danielw
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Ok so my eyes weren't deceiving me. You guys see two vortices also.
Western vortice looks more active than earlier today. Early wispy cirrus clouds starting to encompass the COC. Weak looking compared to the Haitian system.
What has mme most confused is the cloud shapes over the lower Bahamas. The two arc shaped clouds should indicate the 'center' of the wave and the max amplitude above the equator. Amplitutde is better seen on WV imagery.
Western vortice is way ahead of the central wave and eastern vortice is lagging a bit behind.
Given the lack of development I find it slightly strange that these systems are basically tracking along the path of the initial model run. Just have to figure out which one is headed for the Yucatan and which one is headed for the GOM.
Since the Bermuda ridge and E TX high are in place I would think that the western system will go to MX. Then ridge breaks down. High moves east and opens the door for eastern vortice to gain latitude and recurve into the GOM.
This may belong in the Forecast Lounge as some of the my post is based on the models.
EDIT 5:47 EDT-Just noticed that the SSD satellite site has moved the 93L floater to the western vortice. This could get interesting very quickly. I don't think this virtice will TD overnight but current posistion shortens the trip and nulls out most of my above post.
Also of interest is a huge wave, although low in latitude, that just moved off the African Coast. Easily seen on Tropical Update when they show the Western Hemishere (Big Blue Marble) IR image.
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hogrunr
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There are still definitely two strong areas of vorticity involved with this wave. As seen on the CIMSS 850mb Vorticity map. The western vortex has definitely picked up steam late today, so is it to late to change my mind about what I said earlier about it dissipating?  Tonight could get very interesting with this crazy complicated wave.
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Hugh
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Quote:
Ok so my eyes weren't deceiving me. You guys see two vortices also.
EDIT 5:47 EDT-Just noticed that the SSD satellite site has moved the 93L floater to the western vortice. This could get interesting very quickly. I don't think this virtice will TD overnight but current posistion shortens the trip and nulls out most of my above post.
Also of interest is a huge wave, although low in latitude, that just moved off the African Coast. Easily seen on Tropical Update when they show the Western Hemishere (Big Blue Marble) IR image.
Two vortices???? I've been in a meeting all day and I'm just now looking at the and the loops. I see ZERO vortices. Granted, I'm looking at the SSD AVN loop and not a visible loop, but I just don't see any signs of organization right now. What am I missing?
What do you mean by "current position shortens the trip". Do you mean it will move into the Yucatan quickly? I'm confused!!!
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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hogrunr
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hugh
it has been a confusng day with this wave, or should I say, THESE waves. I know I've been all over the place on this today, but I think I've got it straight in my head. In reading the latest , the has two different waveslisted here. One is the vortex that is to the SW of Jamaica. You probably can't see it on the AVN since this wave has had amost no convection today, until later tonight anyway. The second wave is listed in the at approx. 65W, just over and suth of Hait. The convections of the two havebeen mixing all day and has aided the confuson. Sorry fornot pasting in the info from the , I am on my phone.
Hope that helps some!
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LoisCane
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The only real possible vortex I see is off of Jamaica as mentioned above. It has pulsed up and down for a while tonight. Still think the jury is out. The whole set up is dramatically changing today and watching the ULL north of Cuba. I don't know think tomorrow is the day it either does or doesn't.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html
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