Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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After looks at a few images today... it appears to me that 93L has slowed or maybe even stalled some... maybe a slow movement south in last two hours... one thing i'm see, is it appears the forward speed of 10mph does not appear happening and storms are begining to fire closer around the COC... especially to the North and NE of COC. How long will the slow moition be? Anyone else see it?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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It appears that the convection has continued moving WSW, while the LLC has indeed come to a near dead stop off the coast. Convection is very ragged on the edges, but it's a lot more co-located with the apparent LLC than it was 24 hours ago, to me. It still looks like there's shear blocking it from getting into the Gulf, though. The 8pm may move the percentage up a bit, I'd bet.
Edit: 60%, Code Red. Language indicates that it is expected to hit the Yucatan as a TD (doesn't actually SAY that, but the implication is there)
Edited by Hugh (Thu Jun 24 2010 07:39 PM)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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It looks like the LLC might be getting pulled under the strong convection to the east that is currently firing up. It was expected that steering would become weak in this area as well. Also pressure is still falling at buoy 42057 (see attached for the trend). Winds are out of the ENE though which would indicate any LLC is SE of that location (16.834 N 81.501 W) (16°50'2" N 81°30'2" W). I believe thats correct
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
Edited by WeatherNut (Thu Jun 24 2010 07:54 PM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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NHC has put it in the red,a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hrs.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
NHC has put it in the red,a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hrs.
They basically also said it would hit the Yucatan soon thereafter.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I am from the school of thought that until a system becomes a TS,the models have no clue where it's going to go.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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within 48 hours is the main part here... does not mean in the next six hours...
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Initial Conditions numbers for the 00Z data/model runs had a 1006mb low (think thats the lowest with 93L so far) with a direction of 265 and movement of 7kts... so i think the system if slowly organizing... 93L has changed direction and speed for a short period i think... a turn back the NW should start again in the morning.
00z June 25th 2010
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 81.6W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 80.3W DIRM12 = 263DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.2N LONM24 = 78.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Latest sats still show IMO that the surface COC is still to the west of the deep convection... question is now will new convection fire? I'm not sure... i wanna say yes, but i still see shear in the general area or atleast to the NW of COC that may cause 93L from firing up in the next few hrs...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Jun 24 2010 10:36 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Something worth noting:
SSEC 24hr Windshear Change (in knots)
Draw your own conclusions - you can probably guess what mine are.
ED
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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well the 00Z has it out for my area again!! [Image] weird how the has seemed to be the right outlier for the last three days... while the is still showing nuthin.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Jun 25 2010 01:54 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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GFS and most of the models are having a hard time with 93L because it's not there. So to speak.
Double vortice bouncing around and fluctuating through the differents levels. Not to mention the sparse data points in the area.
The 96 hour forecast for Sundown Saturday night arrival at Panama City at 65 knots. Bare minimal Cat 1 Hurricane.
... This is a forecast position and intensity. Forecasts vary by several hundred miles at 96 hours out and will change several times over the next 5 days.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The wave is still a mess this morning, if it develops I guess tonight or tomorrow would be the best guess. It still may not, and the overall thinking of Yucatan with a relatively weak system with a lot of rain hasn't changed all week.
Hurricane Celia in the East Pacific hit category 5, and it's an impressive looking system out in the middle of nowhere.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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In (Pacific) Hurricane Darby's discussion this morning is the following:
THE TRACK FORECAST IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. NEARLY ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT
GETS TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...AND THESE MODELS
STALL DARBY BY DAY 2 FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION ON
DAYS 4 AND 5...MOST NOTABLY INDICATED BY THE AND UKMET. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL PATTERN...BUT DOES NOT
INDICATE A POSITION AS FAR TO THE EAST ON DAY 5 AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN...WHICH IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE AND UKMET
OUTLIERS. ON ANOTHER NOTE...THE SHOWS ALMOST NO DEVELOPMENT OF
THE CARIBBEAN LOW AND THEREFORE KEEPS DARBY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE RATHER HELTER-SKELTER GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ESSENTIALLY...THE
STRONGER THE CARIBBEAN LOW GETS WHILE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE
FARTHER TO THE EAST DARBY COULD BE LOCATED BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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Please remember in the early stages of Tropical Storm development what generally happens and is not at all unusual is the formation of a broad area of low pressure and very small areas of low pressure within it. As thunderstorms fire these baby lows shift around and generally will line up with the most intensive areas of convection. At this stage it is quite common to see this huge mass of convection and we have to remember that it is only now that the shear in the upper environment has weakened enough for development; for most of the week there has been a band of westerlies from the Yucatan across Cuba and into the Atlantic bending ever so slightly east-southeast making it impossible for anything to get ginned up. We also have to remember in the Eastern Pacific, there's Hurricane Darby and in the 2am PT discussion this morning how this wave in the Caribbean develops will have a direct impact on the future course of Darby. I would encourage all to read that discussion courtesy of the .
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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What a mess....Still no definite focal point on the surface. The mid level spin that has been in the eastern third of the cloud mass continues and is now just SW of Jamaica. If a surface feature is going to emerge that will allow this to get into the Gulf it will have to develop near that spin today. There is a persistent anticyclone over the Yucatan that is impacting the system with Nw'ly shear.
Remember the odds are 40% for no development. The doesn't do us any favors when it says 60% is a high probability. 40% is hardly a low probability.
The best terminiology is moderate, either way. That is where I am.
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doug
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
The wave is still a mess this morning, if it develops I guess tonight or tomorrow would be the best guess. It still may not, and the overall thinking of Yucatan with a relatively weak system with a lot of rain hasn't changed all week.
It's a MUCH more impressive "mess" this morning. has, as of the 8am , upped it to 70% probability, and basically it's a matter of timing now. Early morning visible imagery isn't available yet on SSD to confirm the LLC is co-located with the ball of convection, but the infrared loop makes a pretty good case for calling this thing a depression at any time now, in my opinion. There's still a ton of disorganized convection away from the apparent LLC, but there's also a nice ball of convection right near it now. Given the 's new guidance this year on lead time of issuing tropical storm warnings, they would have already been issued if the thing had been named already. If recon DOESN'T find a closed LLC and at least a depression (possibly a storm), I'll be incredibly surprised... unless it falls apart before recon gets there. 
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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NHC now has it at 70%.It looks like we will have our first named storm of the season sometime this weekend.The only thing that can impede development now is land.Models should get a better handle on it's path in the next couple of days.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The recon didn't get canceled today. They should be out at the system around 2PM today, if it gets called today, 5PM is probably the best shot. Depends on how well it holds together the rest of the morning.
If it does get called as a depression+ we'll start a new front page article for it.
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weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
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Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) imagery shows what looks to be a closed circulation off the Central American coast around 15 N 82 W. I would be willing to bet that we'll have a tropical depression by bedtime.
ASCAT: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_50km/zooms/WMBas20.png
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Jason
http://www.jasonsweathercenter.com
Andrew '92 - Lili '02 - Katrina '05 - Rita '05 - Humberto '07 - Gustav '08 - Ike '08 - Isaac '12 - Sandy '12
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) imagery shows what looks to be a closed circulation off the Central American coast around 15 N 82 W. I would be willing to bet that we'll have a tropical depression by bedtime.
Dr. Master's new blog (WUndergrounds) begins rather accurately: "2010 Atlantic hurricane season appears imminent in the Western Caribbean, as the areal coverage and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) continue to increase."
I'd say we'll have a tropical depression as soon as recon arrives, if not before
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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