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Archives >> 2010 News Talkbacks

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche [Re: Unregistered User]
      #87909 - Mon Jun 28 2010 02:14 PM

I saw that, too. Some models have suggested leftover energy from Alex going into the NE Gulf. Need to see if the pattern holds on subsequent models. Don't put too much credibility into just one run.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 370
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche [Re: Unregistered User]
      #87910 - Mon Jun 28 2010 03:06 PM

Quote:

Is that some type of weird anomaly I hope that the Noon GFDL is picking up off the west coast of Florida in four days?




That feature is not related to Tropical Storm Alex. It is a piece of energy that will be cutoff from the longwave trough over the Northeastern US that is stranded between the Mid-Continental Upper Ridge and Bermuda Ridge. Take care!

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche [Re: berrywr]
      #87911 - Mon Jun 28 2010 03:29 PM

1pm shows no movement from the 10am. Exact same set of coordinates and my eye seems to agree in looking at the satellite loops. 5mph movement is just their 12 hour average again. It seems to me that if the system stays slower with its forward movement there is more of a chance of the system getting further north. The ridge that is supposed to build in on Tuesday to turn the system back to the west, moves out almost as quickly as it arrives. This is turning into a "timing" game for South Texas.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

The buoy 42055 linked above is fairly close to the center of alex, a little due west of it. The pressure has started dropping some and the wind speed has increased from about 10 knots at 10 am this morning to 24.7 knots at 1:40 pm.

Edited by hogrunr (Mon Jun 28 2010 03:36 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche [Re: hogrunr]
      #87912 - Mon Jun 28 2010 03:38 PM

actually the longer it sits in the BOC the further south Alex will go. Ridging start digging down late Tuesday into Weds that will turn Alex west. 23N 24N or 25N before the turn? Probably be about 200 miles south of the Tx border.
NE GOM looks interesting for the end of this week. That midlevel energy has to go somewhere. Thats a wait and see evolution..


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche [Re: scottsvb]
      #87913 - Mon Jun 28 2010 03:43 PM

Quote:

actually the longer it sits in the BOC the further south Alex will go. Ridging start digging down late Tuesday into Weds that will turn Alex west. 23N 24N or 25N before the turn? Probably be about 200 miles south of the Tx border.
NE GOM looks interesting for the end of this week. That midlevel energy has to go somewhere. Thats a wait and see evolution..




agreed on the timing of it digging in, but looking at the GFS, for example, it seems like the ridging gets weaker about the time that Alex makes landfall. If Alex takes 12-24 hours longer to get to land, then it would seem it would have a chance to go further north before making landfall.

Edited by hogrunr (Mon Jun 28 2010 03:44 PM)


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 370
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
500mb Upper Air Analysis - June 28 - 12Z [Re: MikeC]
      #87914 - Mon Jun 28 2010 03:46 PM Attachment (87 downloads)

One of the most important tools in a weather forecaster's arsenal is the 500 millibar (18,000 feet) Upper Air Analysis with Temperatures, Wind Direction & Speed, Heights in decameters, decamter difference from previous chart (12 hours ago) and dew point depression. I'll try and post the chart here; however if unsuccessful follow this link and print the chart yourself - http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/QHTA11.TIF Replace "11" with "17" and that is the 700 millibar chart (10,000 feet).

A closer re-analysis of the chart reveals the longwave trough axis extending from the Hudson Bay southward through Wisconsin/Michigan through Iowa/Illinois through Missouri, Oklahoma/Arkansas possibly cutting off over Oklahoma/Texas and continuing as a trough through Central Texas. An inverted trough possibly cutoff extending south and southeast is Alex's circulation being reflected at 500 millibars. The entire area from the South Central US extending eastward to Alabama and Western Florida had 10 decameter height falls to the longwave troughs east and 10 to 20 decameters to the west of the longwave axis...this is indicative of a progressive (moving) east. Greatest height falls are north and east over the North Central and Northeast US as expected this time of year. For those of choose to print this chart, I analyzed the 585 and 587 heights and this will reveal the trough over Texas. I also re-analyzed the 588 height and drew it through Slideall/New Orleans, LA depicting the Bermuda ridge axis.

So what does this all mean you ask....it explains Alex's northward movement which is being steered by the longwave trough's current location.

Alex's intensity is reflected by the UW-CIMMS wind shear analysis. Alex is experiencing 15 knots of NW shear and will likely continue to experience this until the trough goes by and lifts out to the Northeast.

As of 1930Z this is the worse I've seen Alex on satellite and closer examination reveals Alex is moving N to NNW. There is some evidence on water vapor of that Alex is not vertically straight up but tilted slightly.

What troubles me is the position of the Mid-Continental and Bermuda ridges in a few days and an area of weakness; a COL (the intersection of two ridges and/or two troughs and/or all four) and today that's TX/LA border.

Those who are speculating in about 4 days the low off West FL is a piece of the trough that becomes cutoff. If it persists, it may bear watching but it's not related to Alex.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
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Re: 500mb Upper Air Analysis - June 28 - 12Z [Re: berrywr]
      #87915 - Mon Jun 28 2010 04:05 PM

well said! Alex will be a hurricane and landfall is getting pretty straight forward...but strength is the main unknown now. Although the exact path isnt known, 23N-26N is the best bet. I'm down around 23.5-24N Weds night or early Thurs.

Edited by scottsvb (Mon Jun 28 2010 04:07 PM)


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex [Re: MikeC]
      #87919 - Mon Jun 28 2010 06:21 PM

18z run for the GFS is out and has moved back up a little more north. Looks like a little south of Corpus Christi. It's hard to tell though the exact location. It will be interesting to see the rest of the 18Z models. This stuff just keeps bouncing all over the place!

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2968
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex [Re: hogrunr]
      #87922 - Mon Jun 28 2010 08:05 PM

Alex isn't looking good on most of the satellite imagery, with the notable exception of visible. And the stationary behavior may be starting to give way to some more movement now.

Either way you look at it, tomorrow will be a long day, but a good day to get preparations done before the rush on Wednesday if you are in the watch/warning area.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex [Re: MikeC]
      #87924 - Mon Jun 28 2010 08:11 PM Attachment (86 downloads)

I kinda disagree... it appears to me that Alex is starting a rapid intensification stage... New Hot towers near center have me worried... the outflow from these storms is killing the shear that was to the west and northwest of the coc... It apppeared early we may have seen an eye like feature or the coc of Alex peak out... see attached... if Alex can fill in the NW side of COC where the drier air is at... in about 6hrs or so... will know if these Hot towers caused a strengthing stage or not...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SATATL_FLOAT1/animvis.html

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Jun 28 2010 08:15 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87925 - Mon Jun 28 2010 08:20 PM Attachment (80 downloads)

PS: I never seen the G-IV fly so close to center of a Tropical storm before... they flew over the eastern side of COC about hour ago... around 45Kft above the storm... I think thats a history flight.... AF Recon is coming into COC from the NW now... but the G-IV... way to go! Thats gotta be a first for Gonzo!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Jun 28 2010 08:40 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87926 - Mon Jun 28 2010 08:25 PM

Quote:

I kinda disagree... it appears to me that Alex is starting a rapid intensification stage... New Hot towers near center have me worried... the outflow from these storms is killing the shear that was to the west and northwest of the coc... It apppeared early we may have seen an eye like feature or the coc of Alex peak out... see attached... if Alex can fill in the NW side of COC where the drier air is at... in about 6hrs or so... will know if these Hot towers caused a strengthing stage or not...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SATATL_FLOAT1/animvis.html




Oh absolutely, it's just that lack of cold convection on the northwest side of the core that's making it look a mess on IR, but at the same time you can see it attempting to wrap it in there quite vigorously. I think tomorrow it's going to take off, if it can get far enough offshore anyway.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex [Re: MikeC]
      #87927 - Mon Jun 28 2010 08:34 PM Attachment (87 downloads)

Yeah the two feeder bands that were to the north and northeast of center.. plus 100 miles, spun out to the NW very strongly... and i think covection on the NW side of coc is wrapping around now... is this a trend or just a pulse... we will have to keep watching. attached is GPS dropsonde GE plot...

**note** red line is not the flight path... but a general indication between each drop...


PS: there is three planes working Alex right now... G-IV is north of center now... 200 miles... NOAA 42RF is NE of Center doing a research mission (100 miles)... AR Recon 304 is in center now... VERY Busy traffic! lol

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Jun 28 2010 08:37 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87928 - Mon Jun 28 2010 08:46 PM

See signs that pressure may be a few MB lower then the 8pm Adv.... we want know until AF Recon 304 drops a GPS dropsonde, which should be happening right now.... should take about 10+ mins to get data... but seeing 987mb numbers


UPDATE: appears flight level center is NNE of 18Z data... near
Time:00:36:00Z Coordinates: 20.75N 91.55W

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Jun 28 2010 08:53 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87929 - Mon Jun 28 2010 08:58 PM

Well its official... GPS Dropsonde shows pressure dropping!

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 0:35:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°44'N 91°34'W (20.7333N 91.5667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 91 miles (147 km) to the NW (312°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 571m (1,873ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the NW (308°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 33° at 46kts (From between the NNE and NE at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (282°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 987mb (29.15 inHg) - Extrapolated

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Jun 28 2010 08:59 PM)


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Rick99
Unregistered




Re: this is a huge storm [Re: SeaMule]
      #87933 - Mon Jun 28 2010 09:44 PM

Same 91.6 as 5 am, but 70 miles due north.

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: this is a huge storm [Re: SeaMule]
      #87934 - Mon Jun 28 2010 09:44 PM Attachment (101 downloads)

using flightaware.com... i found NOAA49 south of Apalachicola about 15 mins ago... cool part is they were about 5-7k ft about airliner traffic heading west! Been pretty cool to look out the left side of the plane and see a Gonzo pass by... within 10 miles of flight! (most planes are leaving Florida heading to either LAS or LAX)

see attachment!

Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Jun 28 2010 09:47 PM)


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WeatherNut
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex [Re: MikeC]
      #87936 - Mon Jun 28 2010 10:16 PM

Looks like some of the models have trended north again. The GFS and HWRF are more north than last run. Recon is also reporting 65knot winds at flight level. Pressure 985.3

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since

Edited by WeatherNut (Mon Jun 28 2010 10:20 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex [Re: WeatherNut]
      #87937 - Mon Jun 28 2010 10:20 PM

also the last pass also showing signs of another 2mb drop to around 985mb... and a NNE fix from last pass. Dropsonde data should be out in a few... 49 and 42RF have returned to McDill AFB per flightaware

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87938 - Mon Jun 28 2010 10:25 PM

There looks like a big blowup right over the area with the lowest pressure. New Vortex at 985, also the Temperature difference inside eye and outside eye has increased 2 degrees C (now 4 was 2)...also dew point is up from 18c to 22c. Does this mean its pulling in more heat?

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since

Edited by WeatherNut (Mon Jun 28 2010 10:28 PM)


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