allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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It's really important that people understand what is going on, what is really happening with Alex. A stronger storm, more northward component. A classic situation 
The steering layer maps show it pretty well.
Steering Layers for 960-950 MLB. systems
Alex continues a NW motion, click the attachment if you want to see my forecast track based on the motion and pattern of Alex. My prayers go out to those in the path of Hurricane Alex. 
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
Edited by allan (Wed Jun 30 2010 01:00 PM)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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More streams:
Live video from Mexico near projected landfall point.
South Padre Island Live Video Stream
South Padre Island Isla Grand Resort Cam Alex (2010) Recording
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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South Padre Island is going to get some pretty good storm Surge out of Alex, if you know of anyone staying there, recommend to them getting out.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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"The reason why Alex is moving north is because the pressure is similar to a Category 3 Hurricane, which makes a stronger storm, more northward component."
No, not true at all. Thats like saying that Hurricane Iris in 2001, a hurricane that strengthened to Cat IV and hit Belize while moving west southwest, should have been moving north. The steering current chart from UW CIMSS actually indicates the likelyhood of a northwest to west northwest movement.
Perhaps you meant to say that stronger storms often develop a more northward component to their motion.
ED
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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That is exactly what I meant to say, sorry for the misunderstanding. Alex continues a NW movement, with a few wobbles to the WNW according to the radar. However, I've been flipping through RAMSDIS (which by the way is a great satellite site), clearly continues the NW movement.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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Alex continues to move between NW and NNW early this afternoon. It was something that was mentioned in the 11 am ET discussion. Until this morning for the past few days there has been a piece of the long wave trough that had become cutoff from the parent upper low over the Hudson Bay of Canada. The pattern over the USA this week is a bit unusual given how far south the trough has made its presence known. A cold front extends well into the deep South today which is stationary over the Mid-South. Upper support in the way of that trough extends currently in two pieces, one into Arkansas and the other piece along the MS, AL, GA, TN, NC state lines and then extending northeastward into the upper low over the Hudson Bay.
It is the tail end currently over AR, TN, MS which there is a break between the Mid-Continental Ridge centered over NB, IA, KS, MO and the Bermuda Ridge with its axis extending through southern GA, AL, MS.
What NHS is referring to is this area of troughing to liftout or fill resulting in high pressure aloft extending from the Central US to the Atlantic Ocean effectively cutting off Alex from extending any farther north.
At this time and juncture Alex is running out of time and water. The concern is a couple of days from now and what will come of the remains of Alex and I see no evidence Alex will enter the USA and "drown" LA. Personally, I think Alex will dissipate over North Central MX.
I do believe flooding cocerns are a real possibility for Monterrey, MX which is a major city near TX in two days.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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tropicswatch
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 12
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The latest on evacuations in Mexico I could find:
The Mayor of San Fernando, Tamaulipas - Alejandro Galindo Franklin - says six shelters are now being provided to care for about 2,000 people who were evacuated from communities along the Gulf of Mexico.
Yesterday, Mayor Erick Silva of Matamoros ordered the evacuation of about 5,000 people living in Playa Bagdad and in several rural communities.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Latest Center Fix has Alex about 100 miles due east of the shoreline in Mexico.
That would make landfall of the Center after Dark.
Head to higher ground now if you think you may not be high enough.
Edited by danielw (Wed Jun 30 2010 01:57 PM)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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Eye of Alex now on Brownsville weather radar...Alex is now moving W to WNW. Brownsville is currently experiencing torrential rainfall as a spiral band trains from east to west. Flooding imminent.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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Alex's pressure certainly hasn't translated into a stronger system; I agree. However Alex has had to overcome a complicated weather pattern for several days and is simply out of time and water to really wind itself up. Today's poleward wobble today is due to an upper trough that a few days ago was the tail end of the well advertised eastern US long wave which today currently extends to MS and becomes inverted through LA.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Recon reports are suggesting something more akin to an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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It appears that Alex has made the forecasted sharp left turn, it'll likely head due west (maybe a bit south) of the current position.
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mwillis
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 68
Loc: Cape canaveral
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Appears in this imagery that the eye is a little morth than the hurricane plot, any thoughts?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html
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JMII
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 489
Loc: Margate, Florida
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Yep Alex is a touch north of his predicted location. Each lat line is 69 miles, so it looks like he is only 20 miles off track. Considering at one point the eye was 10 miles wide I'd say he is still within the standard "wobble" for a hurricane. The forecast is never perfect and it appears the turn to the west was delayed slightly. The last update indicated Alex was moving a touch faster then predicted so that might explain how he got further north before making the turn to the west.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Yes I believe it was as well. Regardless recon is now reporting a closed wall 12nm and pressure down to 959mb
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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A couple of observations:
As mentioned in the 4PM discussion, the high is building in and Alex is now clearly starting to respond, with an apparent more decisive turn back to the west, and even a wobble to the wsw. A landfall in northeastern Mexico is likely tonight, but only a stair-step or two back to the nw would bring hurricane-force winds into deep south Texas.
Tornadoes have been numerous, and moving at upwards of 50 or so mph, often too fast to spot before they are brushing right on through. Tornado warnings should be heeded with immediate urgency, as there is little or no visual lead time with tornadoes tracking this fast, often also obscured by rain.
Heavy rain continues to pound the eastern half of Texas, with frequent flooding underway, with rainfall rates of up to several inches per hour, sometimes ongoing for multiple hours over the same general locations.
Tropical storm force winds extend out very far. For example, several locations in and around San Antonio, far removed from the center of circulation, are now picking up sustained winds out of the E to NE in excess of 30mph, gusting over 40.
The core of Alex is improving dramatically heading into landfall, and it looks entirely likely that Alex will reach Cat 2 prior to landfall. Judging by the technique, the hurricane has the appearance of an even stronger cyclone, already (with intensity estimates already easily into the Cat 3 range). If Alex were to have (or for some reason we do not yet foresee, -does get-) more time over water, these estimates would almost certainly verify at the surface.
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Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Pressure dropped 4mb in an hour?
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 21:32Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 21:14:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°21'N 96°56'W (24.35N 96.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 115 miles (184 km) to the SSE (162°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,042m (3,419ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 80kts (~ 92.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the N (350°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 79° at 94kts (From the E at ~ 108.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the N (351°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 955mb (28.20 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:51:20Z
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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mwillis
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 68
Loc: Cape canaveral
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Not sure how it matters but at 5pm Brownsville/ S. Padros Island had a pressure reading of 998mb
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KBRO.html
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JMII
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 489
Loc: Margate, Florida
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Quote:
Pressure dropped 4mb in an hour?
Satellite images show a well defined, small eye and a serious is making up the core, thankfully Alex is close to shore or we would have Cat 2 storm pushing Cat 3 by now.
Brownsville weather: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airp...ame=NA&MR=1
Notice the pressure drop from 1PM on. Currently winds are 30 mph, with gusts pushing 50.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Recon has now found a pressure of 951...for a Cat1 hurricane. That kind of pressure could be a strong cat3 or even a 4 normally. The wind field on Alex is, however, HUGE.
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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