MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Let's see if that area persists or falls apart as they tend to do. It is worth watching for a few days as it moves westward, but nothing to get concerned about right now.
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Michael
PWS
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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The , GEM, , and the reliable EURO model now develop the wave off of Africa. It's reasonable and I expect more models to jump on because conditions are becoming favorable where the SAL is now lifting north, in fact, SAL should not be an issue with this wave. Things are moistening up and shear is on the decline. The may mention it tonight if the EURO makes another aggressive run on the system. It takes it to the Caribbean which sounds reasonable to me do to the westward motion of the storms so far this year. Though I notice the EURO doesn't have a big high in the southeast at the time it has what appears to be Hurricane Colin nearing PR. This is all by observation. The keeps the storm weak as the , like the EURO aggressively develops it, though it takes it out to sea. It's definitely something to watch now that the EURO has jumped on board. We might be seeing our first Cape Verde development this weekend.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Its looking like its holding together much better than the previous waves. Its even generating some new convection.
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/IMAGERY/IR108/COLOR/FULLDISC/
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Note that on the 28/12Z run of the 10-day , the system is no more!
Until there is some model consistency (and until it gets a lot closer to anywhere) ... well, you get the idea. It could still do something, but that 'something' is likely to be about a week from now at the earliest.
ED
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Jane
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, Florida
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TWC just mentioned the wave off Africa as something to watch but not to be concerned about - yet.
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Jane
Fort Lauderdale, Florida
https://janeshistorynook.blogspot.com/
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ncskywarn
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 5
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Lets see if the area of convection off the coast of Africa can sustain itself once it separates itself from the , if it does then we will have something to watch. Until or unless that happens it is probably not even going to be anything the will list as a invest. As of now it is still well embedded in the .
This link also shows no indication of a LLCC developing.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...zoom=&time=
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Certified Skywarn Spotter
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The area along 30W is too far south, as stated before, but if it slips more north it could do something later, as in next week.
The area east of the Caribbean (approx 55w) has a long way to go to be organized enough to do anything and is way too linear, so it likely won't.
Those are the two blob areas that are there for those looking for something/anything to watch, but I don't expect anything to develop this week at all.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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My feeling exactly. The area off Africa needs to gain some latitude before there is an improved chance for development. Yes, quiet for the next several days.
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Michael
PWS
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
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The has highlighted the wave near the Windward Islands at 10%, and they marked the wave that is moving into the Central Atlantic at 20%. It looks like the wave in the Atlantic(the one @ 20%) is looking better this afternoon. If it was to develop, which it is still too early to say, it would likely track toward Cuba by next weekend.
Edited by WesnWylie (Thu Jul 29 2010 03:58 PM)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Its been designated 90L
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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The 18Z run of the tropical models are developing 90L more significantly now.
NCEP noted earlier in the day that there are 10 analogs for next week's expected synoptic scale pattern across the Atlantic Basin, and of those 10, 6 had a developed or developing tropical cyclone, 4 of which were in the western quadrant of the subtropical/tropical Atlantic Basin. This is in the general region where the models are moving 90L.
Currently convection is not as robust as the last 24 hours, however, there is interestingly a slightly more discerned cyclonic banding in appearance.
There is still just a 20% chanced assigned to this entity - for what ever method those chances are derived. What I personally like about this feature is that it emerged off the west coast of Africa (N of Sierra Leone) in an at least temporary abatement of the Saharan Air Layer contamination in the region, which had been fairly pervasive prior.
In terms of the outlook the only issue standing in the way of 90L may actually be easterly shear. A strengthening Azores high arming strongly across the breadth of the Basin argue for deepening easterly trades. Otherwise, the oceanic heat content is high, and if the trades are manageable, storm relative shear would be low.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Interestingly the has increased the area out in the Atlantic to Orange
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Jasonch
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 42
Loc: Texas
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NHC Has up the probability to 40% for the wave in the eastern atlantic.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I believe they changed it to a Orange at 2 PM this afternoon. This one might deserve a bit more than a once daily look.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BEGINNING TO
INTERACT WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500
MILES TO ITS WEST. ALTHOUGH THIS ENTIRE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD...AND
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LESS LIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Tough to tell, but it appears that, at the very least there is definite cyclonic turning, and at the most, there is a center of sort forming within a cluster of convenction centered, as of the 01:45 UTC shot, near 8-9N and 32-35W, at least according to the still and looped Rainbow IR imagery.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The area in the east Atlantic has been dropped (as 90L), it still has a good chance at forming, but it may be re designated later because the old 90L area actually was several. If the new area is re designated it may suggest a further westward track and those in the Northeastern Caribbean will want to watch the system. Still too early to tell beyond that, but it's worth watching if it develops.
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I'm suprised it was dropped as 90L. The area of convection I mentioned has been flaring up and organizing a lot in the past couple of hours. Very definitive curved aspect to it, again indicating the presence of at least cyclonic turning, but I'm starting to lean towards there being a center of circulation, located at about 8.8N and 35.5W, as of the 03:15 UTC, at least according to different IR images and Satellite Loops.
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
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I have a feeling it will be relabeled as 91L; however, I don't know how soon they will do it. Although it seems unlikely, some models show two systems developing from this area, so I think the will wait until a more defined circulation develops. It certainly is looking healthy tonight, though.
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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